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Magic Offseason Finances Update

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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#161 » by pepe1991 » Tue Jul 1, 2025 7:45 am

drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:There has been one MAJOR negative news for Magic and many other teams.
Salary cap for 2026-27 won't grow expected 10% but just 7%. Witch means that projected cap for 26-27 will be $165 M, luxury tax at around $200M, First apron at $209M and second apron at around $222M


Ouch!

The Magic is already certain to be over the 1st apron next year. It will be TIGHT to stay below the second.

But this is only a two-year thing. From 2027/28 the Magic's roster becomes "affordable" again given Suggs declining contract structure, Isaac coming off the books, and what is assumed to then be a 10% bump in the cap.

To pepe: why only 7%? The tv deal is certain league income and I thought smoothing "guaranteed" the 10% bumps.


I have no clue, there are rumors among fans that either WNBA is such a financial bomb OR viewership for playoffs, especially finals, was so bad, or that they are losing money in revenue somewhere else.

In my opinion, and i have nothing to back it up, it's owners who simply told Silver that they aren't interested into investments of half of billion dollars per year for basketball team ( due salary, tax ,repetitive tax ) in economy that isn't THAT great for sport that isn't really booming anywhere in the world.

As for viewership of nba finals. It's wild. Lot of people watched game 7, that's a given. But games 2 and 3 had very poor numbers. Game 2 in particular was one of least watched game 2s of past 30 years.

Who knows. In reality, 10% salary raise , to me, never made any sense. If inflation rate in normal years is around 3-5%, why would cap space go up so much? You already have players that aren't very motivated to play, who make too much money, you already need stipulations to force them into playing 60 games a year, and now you just give them more money ?

Maybe whole system simply needs to be rebuilt. Decrease salary cap by 20% and make championship money pool worth $100M, bonus for Finals MVP, and rest of a money spread among 14 men who played on title winner.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#162 » by eyriq » Tue Jul 1, 2025 12:54 pm

pepe1991 wrote:There has been one MAJOR negative news for Magic and many other teams.
Salary cap for 2026-27 won't grow expected 10% but just 7%. Witch means that projected cap for 26-27 will be $165 M, luxury tax at around $200M, First apron at $209M and second apron at around $222M


That is fascinating. In 2026-27 we are at $175M for 9 players, not counting Jase, Penda, or Paolo. Paolo will be at $49.5 or $41.25. In the 30% extension scenario we are at $224.5M and above the 2nd apron with just 10 players.

Sacrifices will be made. Club options on AB, Jett, and TDS. Partial guarantee on JI's contract.

2026-27

Franz Wagner $41.8M
Desmond Bane $39.4M
Jalen Suggs $32.4M
Wendell Carter Jr. $18.1M
Jonathan Isaac $14.5M
Anthony Black $10.1M
Goga Bitadze $7.6M
Jett Howard $7.3M
Tristan Da Silva $4.0M
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#163 » by basketballRob » Tue Jul 1, 2025 1:03 pm

So we have $7.9m to sign Moe and Caleb.

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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#164 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 2, 2025 1:01 am

The Magic are currently $700K below the luxury tax and $7.5M below the hard cap first apron.

That does not include Penda, who isn’t signed yet, but will be eventually.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#165 » by Orlando Dawg » Wed Jul 2, 2025 4:29 am

Do the Magic still have bird rights to Mo Wagner?
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#166 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 2, 2025 1:36 pm

Orlando Dawg wrote:Do the Magic still have bird rights to Mo Wagner?


Yes. But they cannot exceed the first apron because they used a large enough chunk of their MLE to sign Tyus Jones to trigger a hard cap the first apron.

They’re currently around $7.5M below the first apron.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#167 » by JoshuaPotter » Wed Jul 2, 2025 3:00 pm

Knightro wrote:
Orlando Dawg wrote:Do the Magic still have bird rights to Mo Wagner?


Yes. But they cannot exceed the first apron because they used a large enough chunk of their MLE to sign Tyus Jones to trigger a hard cap the first apron.

They’re currently around $7.5M below the first apron.


Looking at contracts presently for our team. At our primary players or top 4.

Would you say

Paolo at max = Good deal
Franz = deal
Suggs = good deal, possibly overpay
Bane = possibly overpay
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#168 » by cedric76 » Wed Jul 2, 2025 5:29 pm

JoshuaPotter wrote:
Knightro wrote:
Orlando Dawg wrote:Do the Magic still have bird rights to Mo Wagner?


Yes. But they cannot exceed the first apron because they used a large enough chunk of their MLE to sign Tyus Jones to trigger a hard cap the first apron.

They’re currently around $7.5M below the first apron.


Looking at contracts presently for our team. At our primary players or top 4.

Would you say

Paolo at max = Good deal
Franz = deal
Suggs = good deal, possibly overpay
Bane = possibly overpay


Only good deals
Suggs, AB, Jase
Bane, Melton, Jett
Franz, TDS, Houstan
P5, JI, Panda
Wcj, Goga, Moe
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#169 » by JoshuaPotter » Wed Jul 2, 2025 5:36 pm

eyriq wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:There has been one MAJOR negative news for Magic and many other teams.
Salary cap for 2026-27 won't grow expected 10% but just 7%. Witch means that projected cap for 26-27 will be $165 M, luxury tax at around $200M, First apron at $209M and second apron at around $222M


That is fascinating. In 2026-27 we are at $175M for 9 players, not counting Jase, Penda, or Paolo. Paolo will be at $49.5 or $41.25. In the 30% extension scenario we are at $224.5M and above the 2nd apron with just 10 players.

Sacrifices will be made. Club options on AB, Jett, and TDS. Partial guarantee on JI's contract.

2026-27

Franz Wagner $41.8M
Desmond Bane $39.4M
Jalen Suggs $32.4M
Wendell Carter Jr. $18.1M
Jonathan Isaac $14.5M
Anthony Black $10.1M
Goga Bitadze $7.6M
Jett Howard $7.3M
Tristan Da Silva $4.0M


Is there potential in this where we move one of Bane / Suggs + others and promote AB?

Loving the fact that we kept Suggs and Black but I can't help but think that one of Bane / Suggs / Black is gonna become irrelevant and we are just waiting to see what sticks.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#170 » by drsd » Thu Jul 3, 2025 7:51 am

basketballRob wrote:So we have $7.9m to sign Moe and Caleb.


The Magic has about 7.5M to sign at least one other player.

(Actually Penda is not REQUIRED to be signed).

In a very strict sense, the Magic must sign two players and cannot exceed about 8.7M in cumulative salary. Penda, Houstan, and M-Wagner are all candidates in that.

True pedanticism: the Magic also do not HAVE TO sign Richardson. So actually the Magic has about 10M to sign at least three players.
Richardson will be signed at $2,590,100. Penda could be signed for as low at 800k, but the market is 1.2M for such a draft pick. But he could be signed for up to 2M and be below the #30th pick salary line. But anything above 1.2M to Penda subtracts from available money for the required 14th player that is to be a FA pickup.

In conclusion, yes, the Magic has less than 8M to sign M-Wagner and Houstan. Probably less than 7.5M given cap space for some unlikely bonuses for Bane.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#171 » by drsd » Thu Jul 3, 2025 7:52 am

JoshuaPotter wrote:Is there potential in this where we move one of Bane / Suggs + others and promote AB?


It is virtually certain now that the Magic will have to make a cost cutting trade next off-season.

That kind of means the Magic should win it all this year; right?
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#172 » by cedric76 » Thu Jul 3, 2025 8:38 am

FYI, Waiving and stretching Jett s contract could give us another 3.686M to spend on Moe

CBA Rule:

Stretch the remaining guaranteed salary over twice the number of years left plus one.

Remaining years: 1

Stretch period: 1 × 2 + 1 = 3 years

So Orlando could stretch the $5,529,720 over 3 years:

Annual cap hit
5,529,720 /3 = ≈$1,843,240

Instead of carrying $5.529M on the 2025-26 cap, they’d carry about $1.84M per year in 2025-26, 2026-27, and 2027-28.
Suggs, AB, Jase
Bane, Melton, Jett
Franz, TDS, Houstan
P5, JI, Panda
Wcj, Goga, Moe
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#173 » by SOUL » Thu Jul 3, 2025 8:45 am

drsd wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:Is there potential in this where we move one of Bane / Suggs + others and promote AB?


It is virtually certain now that the Magic will have to make a cost cutting trade next off-season.

That kind of means the Magic should win it all this year; right?


I don't think Magic would go after Bane if it meant not willing to pay tax to be a contending level team for a year, especially giving up draft picks.

I think a lot of money comes out of the books at a certain point as well from other players. Suggs only gets moved IMO if he gets injured again and Black can replicate what he does at a cheaper price point. Otherwise, one of the younger players might get squeezed if they want more money.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#174 » by Orlando Dawg » Thu Jul 3, 2025 10:07 am

JoshuaPotter wrote:
Is there potential in this where we move one of Bane / Suggs + others and promote AB?

Loving the fact that we kept Suggs and Black but I can't help but think that one of Bane / Suggs / Black is gonna become irrelevant and we are just waiting to see what sticks.


Right now Black is irrelevant and on the hot seat. His current projected role is backup shooting guard that can’t shoot on a team that wants to win the championship.

Right now the 2 most likely players to be dumped are Jett Howard and Anthony Black.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#175 » by jezzerinho » Thu Jul 3, 2025 11:45 am

Orlando Dawg wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:
Is there potential in this where we move one of Bane / Suggs + others and promote AB?

Loving the fact that we kept Suggs and Black but I can't help but think that one of Bane / Suggs / Black is gonna become irrelevant and we are just waiting to see what sticks.


Right now Black is irrelevant and on the hot seat. His current projected role is backup shooting guard that can’t shoot on a team that wants to win the championship.

Right now the 2 most likely players to be dumped are Jett Howard and Anthony Black.


I'm sure Black will continue to develop, but the catch 22 is that - if he does make major strides - there's no way we'll be able to afford his extension. He's not going to replace Franz, Bane or Suggs in a straight-up position battle even if he does improve. All 3 are here for multiple seasons. If we're contending, how likely is it that the FO would prefer an (improved) Anthony Black who is 70% of Suggs performance at 70% of Suggs' salary? Unless the DeVos's insist on getting down below the aprons you'd think a contender wouldn't risk the drop-off...
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#176 » by pepe1991 » Thu Jul 3, 2025 11:49 am

Quentin Grimes and Kuminga situation is epic.

Grimes asks for unrealistic contract, 76ers don't have much options.
Warriors need several teams to move Kuminga. Some potential trades are disgusting from Warriors POV.

Market for even good players at some point will turn into Nets "masterplan". Keep open cap space, collect shi* load of draft picks and assets and just wait for another massive FA haul than hard press it into free contenders-buy -out frenzy to build contender over night. in mean time do nothing but stock pile picks.

One day i will wake up in some 2026-2027 and learn that Jazz now have SGA and Mobley/ Tatum :lol:
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#177 » by basketballRob » Thu Jul 3, 2025 11:53 am

If Moe was healthy, we could've dumped Goga and gave Moe a bigger contract. Since Moe is going to miss the first 2-3 months, we need to retain Goga. Moe should understand and sign a minimum type deal for 1 year.

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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#178 » by fendilim » Thu Jul 3, 2025 12:05 pm

jezzerinho wrote:
Orlando Dawg wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:
Is there potential in this where we move one of Bane / Suggs + others and promote AB?

Loving the fact that we kept Suggs and Black but I can't help but think that one of Bane / Suggs / Black is gonna become irrelevant and we are just waiting to see what sticks.


Right now Black is irrelevant and on the hot seat. His current projected role is backup shooting guard that can’t shoot on a team that wants to win the championship.

Right now the 2 most likely players to be dumped are Jett Howard and Anthony Black.


I'm sure Black will continue to develop, but the catch 22 is that - if he does make major strides - there's no way we'll be able to afford his extension. He's not going to replace Franz, Bane or Suggs in a straight-up position battle even if he does improve. All 3 are here for multiple seasons. If we're contending, how likely is it that the FO would prefer an (improved) Anthony Black who is 70% of Suggs performance at 70% of Suggs' salary? Unless the DeVos's insist on getting down below the aprons you'd think a contender wouldn't risk the drop-off...

Imo, if Black continues to progress and if he develops a jumper, management will have to make a hard decision choosing between Black and Suggs.

They’ll have to consider how Suggs’ body will be by then..
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#179 » by fendilim » Thu Jul 3, 2025 12:10 pm

basketballRob wrote:If Moe was healthy, we could've dumped Goga and gave Moe a bigger contract. Since Moe is going to miss the first 2-3 months, we need to retain Goga. Moe should understand and sign a minimum type deal for 1 year.

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This is true.

Anyway, we have to be under the 1st apron by the trade deadline, right? Not asap? Or is there a deadline that we have to conform to?

I think the major factor worrying the front office right now is the unexpected 7% increase in salary cap, and not really being over the first apron. I’m pretty sure they were projecting a 10% increase and their plans got threw off when it was only 7%.
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Re: Magic Offseason Finances Update 

Post#180 » by Knightro » Thu Jul 3, 2025 12:12 pm

drsd wrote:
basketballRob wrote:So we have $7.9m to sign Moe and Caleb.


The Magic has about 7.5M to sign at least one other player.

(Actually Penda is not REQUIRED to be signed).

In a very strict sense, the Magic must sign two players and cannot exceed about 8.7M in cumulative salary. Penda, Houstan, and M-Wagner are all candidates in that.

True pedanticism: the Magic also do not HAVE TO sign Richardson. So actually the Magic has about 10M to sign at least three players.
Richardson will be signed at $2,590,100. Penda could be signed for as low at 800k, but the market is 1.2M for such a draft pick. But he could be signed for up to 2M and be below the #30th pick salary line. But anything above 1.2M to Penda subtracts from available money for the required 14th player that is to be a FA pickup.

In conclusion, yes, the Magic has less than 8M to sign M-Wagner and Houstan. Probably less than 7.5M given cap space for some unlikely bonuses for Bane.


Richardson’s gonna get slightly more than that. Every rookie pretty much gets 120% of the scale. So he’ll be about 400K higher than what you are projecting.

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