2025-26 Lineup Thread -- How's it shakin out?

[nate33]

Okay, you say it is 15 years of watching bigs fail: name me a single nba player in the history of the nba, who posted ws48 as comparatively low as Bilal’s his first 2 seasons, and went on to become a good player.

WS/48 is a terrible metric for this type of comparison because it relies heavily on how good one's teammates are. It basically apportions team wins to each player based on their stats. If you are a young role player, it's not necessarily your fault if you have lousy teammates who don't win games.

I'll say that 20-year-old Bilal Coulibaby looks a lot like 20-year-old Jaylen Brown in nearly every other metric like PER, BPM and VORP. He is an equivalent scorer and a much better passer who posted better defensive stats with fewer fouls. And passing is a basketball-IQ indicator that generally does a good job of projecting future performance.

History of the nba, and you are going with jaylen brown. And you had to redefine the stats because you didn’t like the metric I asked for.

I could point out that jaylen brown is the better shooter and doesn’t take as many bad 3s as Bilal does which might be why Bilal’s ws48 is so low, but I don’t want to argue over stats.

I posted the raw numbers. People can judge for themselves which summary metric they think is appropriate.

[leswizards]

WS/48 is a terrible metric for this type of comparison because it relies heavily on how good one's teammates are. It basically apportions team wins to each player based on their stats. If you are a young role player, it's not necessarily your fault if you have lousy teammates who don't win games.

I'll say that 20-year-old Bilal Coulibaby looks a lot like 20-year-old Jaylen Brown in nearly every other metric like PER, BPM and VORP. He is an equivalent scorer and a much better passer who posted better defensive stats with fewer fouls. And passing is a basketball-IQ indicator that generally does a good job of projecting future performance.

History of the nba, and you are going with jaylen brown. And you had to redefine the stats because you didn’t like the metric I asked for.

I could point out that jaylen brown is the better shooter and doesn’t take as many bad 3s as Bilal does which might be why Bilal’s ws48 is so low, but I don’t want to argue over stats.

I posted the raw numbers. People can judge for themselves which summary metric they think is appropriate.

And oh, by the way. Who are those other bad players, which hypothetically might be pulling down Bilal’s ws48? Oh, that’s right, I know, it’s this front office’s other draft picks.

[nate33]

History of the nba, and you are going with jaylen brown. And you had to redefine the stats because you didn’t like the metric I asked for.

I could point out that jaylen brown is the better shooter and doesn’t take as many bad 3s as Bilal does which might be why Bilal’s ws48 is so low, but I don’t want to argue over stats.

I posted the raw numbers. People can judge for themselves which summary metric they think is appropriate.

And oh, by the way. Who are those other bad players, which hypothetically might be pulling down Bilal’s ws48? Oh, that’s right, I know, it’s this front office’s other draft picks.

This is what happens when you start a bunch of teenagers with a goal to develop them while tanking for picks. Please tell me you understand this.

But you have no intention of arguing in good faith. You are ignoring the biggest issue of all in that the Wizards started this rebuild with a FRP pick owed to NY, and Beal's horrible contract with a NTC. The only asset in the cupboard was Deni. You want to compare that situation to Boston who traded Pierce and KG for a plethora of picks, or to OKC who traded Paul George for a king's ransom of picks. Fast rebuilds happen when teams plan appropriately for them by trading their aging stars before it is too late. Slow rebuilds happen with terrible management and ownership like the Wizards had until 2023.

[DCZards]

History of the nba, and you are going with jaylen brown. And you had to redefine the stats because you didn’t like the metric I asked for.

I could point out that jaylen brown is the better shooter and doesn’t take as many bad 3s as Bilal does which might be why Bilal’s ws48 is so low, but I don’t want to argue over stats.

I posted the raw numbers. People can judge for themselves which summary metric they think is appropriate.

And oh, by the way. Who are those other bad players, which hypothetically might be pulling down Bilal’s ws48? Oh, that’s right, I know, it’s this front office’s other draft picks.

You see bad players...I see talented 19-21 yr olds pretty much performing--and struggling--like most talented 19-21 yr olds do in their first 2-3 yrs in the league.

[leswizards]

I posted the raw numbers. People can judge for themselves which summary metric they think is appropriate.

And oh, by the way. Who are those other bad players, which hypothetically might be pulling down Bilal’s ws48? Oh, that’s right, I know, it’s this front office’s other draft picks.

This is what happens when you start a bunch of teenagers with a goal to develop them while tanking for picks. Please tell me you understand this.

But you have no intention of arguing in good faith. You are ignoring the biggest issue of all in that the Wizards started this rebuild with a FRP pick owed to NY, and Beal's horrible contract with a NTC. The only asset in the cupboard was Deni. You want to compare that situation to Boston who traded Pierce and KG for a plethora of picks, or to OKC who traded Paul George for a king's ransom of picks. Fast rebuilds happen when teams plan appropriately for them by trading their aging stars before it is too late. Slow rebuilds happen with terrible management and ownership like the Wizards had until 2023.

I am arguing in good faith. That is why I asked you to name me one player who started off as poorly as Bilal (judged by ws48) who has turned into a good player. I want to see evidence that there have been nba players who started out poorly and bloomed into great players to support your contention that this can be done, and the Wizards are on a wise path. You haven’t shown me one player in the nba’s history who has actually achieved this.

[nate33]

And oh, by the way. Who are those other bad players, which hypothetically might be pulling down Bilal’s ws48? Oh, that’s right, I know, it’s this front office’s other draft picks.

This is what happens when you start a bunch of teenagers with a goal to develop them while tanking for picks. Please tell me you understand this.

But you have no intention of arguing in good faith. You are ignoring the biggest issue of all in that the Wizards started this rebuild with a FRP pick owed to NY, and Beal's horrible contract with a NTC. The only asset in the cupboard was Deni. You want to compare that situation to Boston who traded Pierce and KG for a plethora of picks, or to OKC who traded Paul George for a king's ransom of picks. Fast rebuilds happen when teams plan appropriately for them by trading their aging stars before it is too late. Slow rebuilds happen with terrible management and ownership like the Wizards had until 2023.

I am arguing in good faith. That is why I asked you to name me one player who started off as poorly as Bilal (judged by ws48) who has turned into a good player. I want to see evidence that there have been nba players who started out poorly and bloomed into great players to support your contention that this can be done, and the Wizards are on a wise path. You haven’t shown me one player in the nba’s history who has actually achieved this.

Because WS/48 is a terrible stat to judge role players. And frankly, it's a really bad stat overall. Do you really believe that Jalen Duren is currently the 6th best player in the league? Or that Luka Doncic is the 26th best player in the league?

[tontoz]

Cade's WS/48 were worse than Bilal in his first two years.

[leswizards]

This is what happens when you start a bunch of teenagers with a goal to develop them while tanking for picks. Please tell me you understand this.

But you have no intention of arguing in good faith. You are ignoring the biggest issue of all in that the Wizards started this rebuild with a FRP pick owed to NY, and Beal's horrible contract with a NTC. The only asset in the cupboard was Deni. You want to compare that situation to Boston who traded Pierce and KG for a plethora of picks, or to OKC who traded Paul George for a king's ransom of picks. Fast rebuilds happen when teams plan appropriately for them by trading their aging stars before it is too late. Slow rebuilds happen with terrible management and ownership like the Wizards had until 2023.

I am arguing in good faith. That is why I asked you to name me one player who started off as poorly as Bilal (judged by ws48) who has turned into a good player. I want to see evidence that there have been nba players who started out poorly and bloomed into great players to support your contention that this can be done, and the Wizards are on a wise path. You haven’t shown me one player in the nba’s history who has actually achieved this.

Because WS/48 is a terrible stat to judge role players. And frankly, it's a really bad stat overall. Do you really believe that Jalen Duren is currently the 6th best player in the league? Or that Luka Doncic is the 26th best player in the league?

Role players. I didn’t realize that the wizards were building a “championship contending team” of role players.

[nate33]

I am arguing in good faith. That is why I asked you to name me one player who started off as poorly as Bilal (judged by ws48) who has turned into a good player. I want to see evidence that there have been nba players who started out poorly and bloomed into great players to support your contention that this can be done, and the Wizards are on a wise path. You haven’t shown me one player in the nba’s history who has actually achieved this.

Because WS/48 is a terrible stat to judge role players. And frankly, it's a really bad stat overall. Do you really believe that Jalen Duren is currently the 6th best player in the league? Or that Luka Doncic is the 26th best player in the league?

Role players. I didn’t realize that the wizards were building a “championship contending team” of role players.

20-year-olds typically aren't equipped to be stars right away. They start off as role players and build from there. That's what Kawhi did. That's what Jaylen Brown did. That's what Paul George did. That's what Mikal Bridges did.

[leswizards]

Because WS/48 is a terrible stat to judge role players. And frankly, it's a really bad stat overall. Do you really believe that Jalen Duren is currently the 6th best player in the league? Or that Luka Doncic is the 26th best player in the league?

Role players. I didn’t realize that the wizards were building a “championship contending team” of role players.

20-year-olds typically aren't equipped to be stars right away. They start off as role players and build from there. That's what Kawhi did. That's what Jaylen Brown did. That's what Paul George did. That's what Mikal Bridges did.

I believe all the players you mentioned helped their teams win right away in their roles. And all the Wizards front office draft picks have helped the Wizards lose in their roles. And you are on record expecting them to help the team lose again in their roles.

I want to know names of players who have continuously helped their team lose in their role and suddenly turned it around and helped their teams win.

So far, the only name mentioned who shows that it is possible is Cade Cunningham. Until, you can actually show that it is quite common, you need to stop assuming that it is quite common.

[nate33]

Role players. I didn’t realize that the wizards were building a “championship contending team” of role players.

20-year-olds typically aren't equipped to be stars right away. They start off as role players and build from there. That's what Kawhi did. That's what Jaylen Brown did. That's what Paul George did. That's what Mikal Bridges did.

I believe all the players you mentioned helped their teams win right away in their roles. And all the Wizards front office draft picks have helped the Wizards lose in their roles. And you are on record expecting them to help the team lose again in their roles.

I want to know names of players who have continuously helped their team lose in their role and suddenly turned it around and helped their teams win.

So far, the only name mentioned who shows that it is possible is Cade Cunningham. Until, you can actually show that it is quite common, you need to stop assuming that it is quite common.

Mikal Bridges won just 15 games in his rookie season at Phoenix even though he was already 22. I'll wait until Bilal wins less than 15 games at age 22 before I conclude he can't be as good as Bridges.

[doclinkin]

ws48

This again?

Look I'm the guy who was boosting Zach Edey and Khaman Maluach and have been forecasting a big man revival. We've been seeing hints of it.

But you weaken OUR argument when you rely on the one stupid stat that is based on the number of wins a team has. On a losing team that only shows what portion of the few wins the team has can be attributed to that player. What was pointed out in the Dawkins thread: Win Shares only counts the stats in games the team won, then works backward from there.

Use Value over Replacement Player (VORP), or Box Score Plus Minus (BPM) or pretty much any other stat and you can still probably make the point you are reaching for.

I like Zach Edey. I would have traded down for him and Castle. I like Khaman Maluach, I would have taken him at 6 if I couldn't get a trade back I liked, and lived with the losses we'd take while he is learning. I don't know that I would take both, or that I'd play Maluach at PF. But still, I like the players.

I do think you underestimate how long it takes youth to improve. Try to make your point using BPM or VORP and see if you still get the same results.

[leswizards]

ws48

This again?

Look I'm the guy who was boosting Zach Edey and Khaman Maluach and have been forecasting a big man revival. We've been seeing hints of it.

But you weaken OUR argument when you rely on the one stupid stat that is based on the number of wins a team has. On a losing team that only shows what portion of the few wins the team has can be attributed to that player. What was pointed out in the Dawkins thread: Win Shares only counts the stats in games the team won, then works backward from there.

Use Value over Replacement Player (VORP), or Box Score Plus Minus (BPM) or pretty much any other stat and you can still probably make the point you are reaching for.

I like Zach Edey. I would have traded down for him and Castle. I like Khaman Maluach, I would have taken him at 6 if I couldn't get a trade back I liked, and lived with the losses we'd take while he is learning. I don't know that I would take both, or that I'd play Maluach at PF. But still, I like the players.

I do think you underestimate how long it takes youth to improve. Try to make your point using BPM or VORP and see if you still get the same results.

The point that I am trying to make is more often than not, bad players continue to be bad players. It is rare for a bad player to become a good player.

Ws48 is not a perfect stat, but it is a sufficient stat to show that all of the Wizards front office draft picks have been bad players in that they are not helping the team win. And the people who are most offended by that above statement are also the ones who are most certain that the best way for the Wizards to have another worst record in the nba season is to play those draft picks.

It is rare but from time to time bad players do become good players and become capable of helping a team win. But, people’s inability to name those players show how rare it is.

[payitforward]

its not all that uncommon for players taken young to start out bad and end up good.

KD had a terrible rookie year, for example.

[joshuacf]

its not all that uncommon for players taken youn to start out and end up good.

KD had a terrible rookie year, for example.

5/10 ragebait

[joshuacf]

This entire argument is a moot point because Bilal is going to play and play a lot this season, and probably next season as well. There isn't anyone waiting in the wings (get it?) to take his minutes unless one of Kyshawn George, Will Riley, or Dillion Jones unexpectely turns out to be much better than we think they are.

We might as well give Bilal 25+ mpg for the next two seasons to figure out what we have in him.

[doclinkin]

The point that I am trying to make is more often than not, bad players continue to be bad players. It is rare for a bad player to become a good player.

Ws48 is not a perfect stat, but it is a sufficient stat to show that all of the Wizards front office draft picks have been bad players in that they are not helping the team win. And the people who are most offended by that above statement are also the ones who are most certain that the best way for the Wizards to have another worst record in the nba season is to play those draft picks.

It is rare but from time to time bad players do become good players and become capable of helping a team win. But, people’s inability to name those players show how rare it is.

Since it is based on wins it's a bad stat on a team that is intentionally tanking. A team whose primary goal is not to lose their lotto, then top 10 pick in that player's early career. If you gloss over that point, you miss the keystone of the team strategy. That in order to land a transcendent player, your odds are better if you have a high draft pick. And more importantly, your odds of landing that player in the draft are zero if you don't have a draft pick.

But you can make your point on Bilal with another stat. Here:

https://stathead.com/tiny/PMpGM

Sort for players who have played at least 120 games and 3600 minutes

By box plus minus Bilal is equivalent to similar aged players like RJ Hampton, Bennedict Mathurin, Scoot Henderson, at best.

Or by Value over Replacement Player Bilal measures up to Avery Bradley, Cam Reddish, Eddy Curry, Kwame Brown, that sort of guy.

Now you can have a well informed rant about how terrible you think the kid is. I personally think he will pop this year and show significant improvement. I think his defense doesn't show up well in these metrics, and the team has shown that they are committed to developing players. If they are any good at it we will start to see positive effects in year 3 & 4 of each players career, when studies show you can usually see a player break out. (Though a year 4 & 5 breakout is more common for the younger players).

But in any case by no standard can you say Bilal is yet a good player. Yet. Or any of our rookie contract guys. They have significant learning curve ahead of them. The 'wait and see' crew like me are willing to give it this next draft year at the earliest before we expec to see the team even trying to win. Until then, blame the last regime for the hole we have to dig out of.

[nate33]

Remember, Avdija was terrible statistically his first 3 years here. But we all could see with the "eye test" that he was at least a very good defender and passer, so we dismissed the stats to some degree. We were right. Defense and passing denote athletic ability, effort and high bball IQ and are the foundational building blocks for elite players

I think the same applies with Bilal. He's not that good statistically at the moment, but the stuff he is good at (man defense) doesn't show much in the box score, or is the type of stuff that's hard to improve (feel, passing, A/TO ratio). The stuff he isn't good at (shooting, strength) is the stuff that improves with age and experience.

[DCZards]

Ws48 is not a perfect stat, but it is a sufficient stat to show that all of the Wizards front office draft picks have been bad players in that they are not helping the team win. And the people who are most offended by that above statement are also the ones who are most certain that the best way for the Wizards to have another worst record in the nba season is to play those draft picks.

You seriously expected a team playing primarily 19, 20 & 21 yr olds to win a lot of games? You must not think much of the vets and other teams in the NBA.

[tontoz]

Most guys in general don't become good players, even if they are drafted in the lottery. It isn't exactly going out on a limb saying that a young player won't ever be good because the odds are in your favor. It is hard to become a good player in the NBA.