winforlose wrote:Counter arguments.
1. Dame is not young, and even if he makes it back before the playoffs, (big if, especially considering his age,) then he will likely be out of shape and not very effective. Tying up the TPMLE money also kicks us out of the buyout market and restricts our moves late in the season (assume for example we need to convert Rocco, I would have to check the math but that could get very difficult.)
2. Mike is not a starting quality PG on a contender. Dilly isn’t even a backup quality PG based on last year. If they split the 48 minutes we will struggle. You say it is the 12 or 13th man, I say whoever we sign is likely to start, or we make a trade and use the TPMLE to backfill whoever we send out. Either way it is costing us a rotation player.
3. If Dame could get back in time for the season and could make a similar deal, why make it with us. Why not an eastern conference team with an easy road? We are never gonna be favored against OKC, and there are multiple other teams who might be a tough matchup without a legit PG.
Here is how I see it with those three points.
1. We are not converting Rocco next season. Ignoring that though, First and Second Apron teams are not able to sign players in the buyout market who have contracts that exceed the non-taxpayer MLE. Maybe you can identify someone, but it is extraordinarily unlikely that there is a miracle player making less than the MLE that a team is going to buy-out prior to the deadline near the end of the season; that strategy (which was always prety overrated) is mostly dead. Additionally, Minnesota HAS to sign at least one more player to reach the fourteen player minimum, going into the season. You can't go into seasons with thirteen players anymore, with the new CBA. Yes, the new CBA is dumb and overly restrictive.
2. There are no players left on the market who are going to start over Mike Conley. Unfortunately, there just aren't any starting-caliber Point-Guards left, we are quickly entering "there are no quality backup Point-Guards left" territory, once Malcolm Brogdon is gone (and he's largely washed and perpetually injured). Again, if you can name candidates, I am open to listening, but the choices are extremely rough. Maybe there is some option with the TPE/TPMLE, but I am just not seeing it.
3. That is why I am comfortable offering him the TPMLE with a Player-Option as an incentive to bring him here. If he can get it elsewhere, then he may go for it, but you can't really control that; can always pivot to the remaining. Second Apron teams lose the TPMLE, so they would be out of the pool. Non-taxpaying teams obviously don't get a TPMLE (though they could use a partial MLE). I think the pool of teams giving him the same offer are low/non-existant, but at this stage of his career, he might just prefer other options over taking money.
The reality I see is that the remaining options largely suck, the ones who are barely backup caliber will want significant minutes when they are already lower-impact than Mike Conley and would interfere with Rob Dillingham's minutes, and this is the one pathway to getting an actual starting caliber Point-Guard heading into the Playoffs. I would love to hear realistic names left on the board (particularly with the assumption that Malcolm Brogdon is off of the board), but the remaining free-agents are all worse than Mike Conley and there aren't players making under the TPMLE that Minnesota can realistically trade for.