Kessler to BOS (Extension of Sexton/Nurkic deal)

[hugepatsfan]

BOS gives: Simons, 2026 1st rounder (top 4 protected, then unprotected in 2027), 2030 swap rights
BOS gets: Walker Kessler, KJ Martin, Svi Mykhailuk, Jaden Springer

Why? They use their pick to get a center on a low salary for this year in their tax crunch. They have room to extend him below the tax next year too. After this deal they're about $11.5M over the tax line with 18 NBA contracts. Pay some 2nds to dump Martin and Svi and they'd be under the tax line while adding a starting caliber center. Still probably a tough year with Tatum out, but the team look solid once he's back.

UTA gives: Collin Sexton, Walker Kessler, KJ Martin, Svi Mykhailuk, Jaden Springer, 2nd rounder
UTA gets: Simons, Nurkic, 2026 BOS 1st rounder (top 4 protected, then unprotected in 2027), 2030 swap rights with Boston

Why? Move Kessler for a pick ahead of extension, get a look at Simons who I remember Ainge loved in the draft when he was with BOS.

CHA gives: Nurkic
CHA gets: Sexton, UTA 2nd rounder

Why? Deal already reported.

[SkyHook]

Sexton for Nurkic is already official.

[hugepatsfan]

Sexton for Nurkic is already official.

Ah, my bad. Trade machine I used didn't have it final yet.

Simons/picks for Kessler/Martin/Springer/Svi says Utah is $1.3M over what they could take back which seems small but can't really see a way to salvage it since any other salary Utah includes seems to change value too much. And that's not even factoring in whether Simons/pick/pick swap is enough for Kessler in the first place (the rest is all pretty ancillary).

Maybe if Collins is eventually moves there's a way to fold this into that deal. So if the value is right (Simons/pick/pick swap) for Kessler it could be something to stash for thought I guess.

[Vae Victus]

Simons is negative value that requires extra incentive to eat. Ainge is on record saying he wants a kings ransom for Kessler (like 3 real FRPs) or he’s just keeping him to rot. Throwing in Simons and his 2nd year salary negates at least half of that packages value for Kessler. I feel plenty of other teams can beat it if Utah seriously considers this package.

[hugepatsfan]

Simons is negative value that requires extra incentive to eat. Ainge is on record saying he wants a kings ransom for Kessler (like 3 real FRPs) or he’s just keeping him to rot. Throwing in Simons and his 2nd year salary negates at least half of that packages value for Kessler. I feel plenty of other teams can beat it if Utah seriously considers this package.

Simons doesn't have second year salary, fwiw.

Obviously overpaid though - the market has told us this through comparable player trades and even his own deal to BOS where a contract considered negative in Jrue still returned picks. But still, he is a young player with skills. I wouldn't think, on an expiring deal, a team like Utah would throw up on him. If he did have multi year money then that's different. I do think on a one year try out, as long as he doesn't push you into a tax threshold you don't want to be in, he's a decent flier to take.

[babyjax13]

Simons is negative value that requires extra incentive to eat. Ainge is on record saying he wants a kings ransom for Kessler (like 3 real FRPs) or he’s just keeping him to rot. Throwing in Simons and his 2nd year salary negates at least half of that packages value for Kessler. I feel plenty of other teams can beat it if Utah seriously considers this package.

Simons doesn't have second year salary, fwiw.

Obviously overpaid though - the market has told us this through comparable player trades and even his own deal to BOS where a contract considered negative in Jrue still returned picks. But still, he is a young player with skills. I wouldn't think, on an expiring deal, a team like Utah would throw up on him. If he did have multi year money then that's different. I do think on a one year try out, as long as he doesn't push you into a tax threshold you don't want to be in, he's a decent flier to take.

We have so many guards, I don't think he is appealing at all. I think if there were a Kessler trade to Boston it is smaller, and Simons is not in it.

[SkyHook]

Simons is negative value that requires extra incentive to eat. Ainge is on record saying he wants a kings ransom for Kessler (like 3 real FRPs) or he’s just keeping him to rot. Throwing in Simons and his 2nd year salary negates at least half of that packages value for Kessler. I feel plenty of other teams can beat it if Utah seriously considers this package.

Simons doesn't have second year salary, fwiw.

Obviously overpaid though - the market has told us this through comparable player trades and even his own deal to BOS where a contract considered negative in Jrue still returned picks. But still, he is a young player with skills. I wouldn't think, on an expiring deal, a team like Utah would throw up on him. If he did have multi year money then that's different. I do think on a one year try out, as long as he doesn't push you into a tax threshold you don't want to be in, he's a decent flier to take.

The problem is that everything you wrote also described Sexton who is a better version of Simons on a smaller expiring contract and he needed an SRP to be moved.

[SkyHook]

Sexton for Nurkic is already official.

Ah, my bad. Trade machine I used didn't have it final yet.

Simons/picks for Kessler/Martin/Springer/Svi says Utah is $1.3M over what they could take back which seems small but can't really see a way to salvage it since any other salary Utah includes seems to change value too much. And that's not even factoring in whether Simons/pick/pick swap is enough for Kessler in the first place (the rest is all pretty ancillary).

Maybe if Collins is eventually moves there's a way to fold this into that deal. So if the value is right (Simons/pick/pick swap) for Kessler it could be something to stash for thought I guess.

I don't think one protected pick gets it done for Kessler. And swaps are fine as a side dish, but I don't ever view them as a main course in terms of value.

[jbk1234]

Simons is negative value that requires extra incentive to eat. Ainge is on record saying he wants a kings ransom for Kessler (like 3 real FRPs) or he’s just keeping him to rot. Throwing in Simons and his 2nd year salary negates at least half of that packages value for Kessler. I feel plenty of other teams can beat it if Utah seriously considers this package.

Simons doesn't have second year salary, fwiw.

Obviously overpaid though - the market has told us this through comparable player trades and even his own deal to BOS where a contract considered negative in Jrue still returned picks. But still, he is a young player with skills. I wouldn't think, on an expiring deal, a team like Utah would throw up on him. If he did have multi year money then that's different. I do think on a one year try out, as long as he doesn't push you into a tax threshold you don't want to be in, he's a decent flier to take.

The problem is that everything you wrote also described Sexton who is a better version of Simons on a smaller expiring contract and he needed an SRP to be moved.

I feel like there's more to the Sexton trade than is publicly out there, but the important thing is that the Jazz were willing to attach draft capital to move him for a worthless expiring. I can't see the Jazz in particular being interested in taking back a worse version of Sexton.

I suspect that all of Simons, Poole, and CJ had a one team trade market, and once Orlando traded for Bane, it evaporated.

[Vae Victus]

Simons doesn't have second year salary, fwiw.

Obviously overpaid though - the market has told us this through comparable player trades and even his own deal to BOS where a contract considered negative in Jrue still returned picks. But still, he is a young player with skills. I wouldn't think, on an expiring deal, a team like Utah would throw up on him. If he did have multi year money then that's different. I do think on a one year try out, as long as he doesn't push you into a tax threshold you don't want to be in, he's a decent flier to take.

Wait WUT?!?! *glares at POR* WHY THE FUQ DID YOU BAIL BOS OUT OF JRUE’S ALBATROSS 4!?!?!? My god that deal has ticked from very very bad deal to Billy Beane-esque in my mind now.

[SkyHook]

Spoiler:

Simons doesn't have second year salary, fwiw.

Obviously overpaid though - the market has told us this through comparable player trades and even his own deal to BOS where a contract considered negative in Jrue still returned picks. But still, he is a young player with skills. I wouldn't think, on an expiring deal, a team like Utah would throw up on him. If he did have multi year money then that's different. I do think on a one year try out, as long as he doesn't push you into a tax threshold you don't want to be in, he's a decent flier to take.

The problem is that everything you wrote also described Sexton who is a better version of Simons on a smaller expiring contract and he needed an SRP to be moved.

I feel like there's more to the Sexton trade than is publicly out there, but the important thing is that the Jazz were willing to attach draft capital to move him for a worthless expiring. I can't see the Jazz in particular being interested in taking back a worse version of Sexton.

I suspect that all of Simons, Poole, and CJ had a one team trade market, and once Orlando traded for Bane, it evaporated.

There are theories out there which may have some merit, but it may just be that the Jazz brass saw Nurkic's size as a slightly more valuable commodity for the upcoming trade deadline while also being less lightly to generate wins than Sexton. Though I should give up trying to understand the thinking of the Ainges.