NOP/IND Strike while the Dumars iron is hot

[Praetor]

With the draft day trade and the signing of Looney, it looks to me like Dumars is trying to compete. The issue they have is that they don't have any proven winners on their roster, and Zion is a huge gamble year to year. They could use a trading partner that will give them a proven winner at Zion's position that can afford to gamble a couple years away, and could look to get younger. Let me preface this idea by saying that I'm not sure what kind of draft compensation would need to be added, as Zion's trade value is all over the place. Having said that:

Indiana Trades Pascal Siakam for Zion and Missi. I'm assuming IND would be sending a couple 1sts in this package, but I'd love input.

For NOP, they get a PF who can do a bit of everything and will bring a winning culture. Also, the best ability is avilability. Siakam is a workhorse who will not need a surgical team on the plane, and nobody will ask if he's on Wegovy. A starting lineup of Murray, Poole, Jones, Siakam and Looney with a bench of Alvarado, Murphy, Bey and a minimum big should make them competitive for the playoffs.

For IND, this is 1-2 gap years while Haliburton recovers. Keeping Siakam would be wasting the last few of his prime years. In the wake of Myles Turner's departure, trading him for a center prospect makes sense. Indiana also doesn't have a huge interest in competing next year, so if Zion continues his trend of only playing 30 games per year, it'll be a big name that fans can get excited about without really making the team a playoff team. If Zion can get healthy he's an undeniable upgrade over Siakam and fits the Haliburton timeline much, much better. If he can't, his salary really only hurts the team in the final year of his contract when Haliburton should finally be 100%, at which point it's a big expiring contract. It would also, finally, get IND a #1 overall pick on the roster, which the team has never had in their entire NBA run.

[gswhoops]

Zion is untouchable (in a bad way) until his legal issues get resolved

[BK_2020]

Zion Williamson, except for 23-24, has on/off in the 86, 87, 90, 95th percentiles. That's 4500 minutes of superb impact, although counterbalanced by 2200 minutes of very poor impact in 23-24. I tend to write off 23-24 for Zion as a recovery season but even if it's not, I think Zion has solidly established himself as a winning player.

What might surprise some people is Zion has consistently (again exception 23-24) had a positive impact on defense as well as offense, though not to the same extent.

I like Siakam but it's not like he was a winning player when forced to play center surrounded by a bunch of mediocre and ill-fitting pieces either. I would rather roll the dice with Zion. The pick swap is already sunk cost.

[Scoot McGroot]

Zion is untouchable (in a bad way) until his legal issues get resolved

Yup. 1000%.

[jowglenn]

Indiana Trades Pascal Siakam for Zion and Missi. I'm assuming IND would be sending a couple 1sts in this package, but I'd love input.

I don't think the Pacers would throw in any 1sts at all. Zion is damaged goods, straight up. He cannot stay on the court, and on top of that he's got the legal issues that others have mentioned. It's a gamble I'd consider exploring, but I would not be adding any 1sts whatsoever. Pelicans would get out of the Zion business and bring in an all-star player who is totally professional, stays on the court, contributes to winning in all the right ways; that's the best they can possibly hope for in a Zion exchange.

[tmorgan]

I wouldn’t trade Siakam for Zion. What’s the upside? Zion suddenly takes basketball seriously and turns into an MVP candidate? Are we still living in that fantasy world?

Zion’s career is likely already half over and he’s played 210 pro games. His body isn’t going to hold up much into his 30’s even if he does get in perfect shape. Too much stress on his knees and back.

Fun to watch when he plays, no doubt. But if the Pacers decide to tear it down because of Hali and Turner, they could do better than this.

[Jon1798]

Everyone is correct above. Though in a 2K fun kindof way, I always wondered what the Pels would look like with a Zion replacement that didn’t have all the Zion holes in his game. Placing Siakim with Murray, Herb, Trey, Missi, etc, and you’ve got so much length and defense. Just fun mix and match stuff.

[oldncreaky]

Zion Williamson, except for 23-24, has on/off in the 86, 87, 90, 95th percentiles. That's 4500 minutes of superb impact, although counterbalanced by 2200 minutes of very poor impact in 23-24. I tend to write off 23-24 for Zion as a recovery season but even if it's not, I think Zion has solidly established himself as a winning player.

What might surprise some people is Zion has consistently (again exception 23-24) had a positive impact on defense as well as offense, though not to the same extent.

I like Siakam but it's not like he was a winning player when forced to play center surrounded by a bunch of mediocre and ill-fitting pieces either. I would rather roll the dice with Zion. The pick swap is already sunk cost.

Disagree with the bolded part. As the best player on the Raptors over 2 seasons (2021-2023) -- without any C or any backup PG -- Siakam led them to an 89-75 record. That's obviously not a contender, but more like slightly above .500 first round exit. And I've got today's Siakam being a slightly better player than 2 years ago, and the Indiana roster around him being a bit better than the Raptors roster around him a couple of years back.

Zion needs 2 things to succeed: health, and being the focal point of attack. While he might be healthy, I'm not sure if Zion would be a great fit in Indiana's offence which relies on a lot of off-ball action that we just haven't seen from Zion, and if Zion dominates the ball that will be at the expense of other creators on Indiana. I don't think the trade is a good gamble for Indiana

[Helsbyte]

I see Atlanta as a possible destination "IF" Indy was to move him. Stretch 5, playmaking pg, defensive stopper already in place. Something around Johnson would have to be used because of the salary. Question would come into play is what value does Indy place on him coming off an ACL.

[lordjeff05]

I think we too often do this thing where we don't understand or agree with a move a GM makes so we just assume that they will do other moves that don't make sense. Siakam is 31 years old. Although he made a move that essentially tank-proofs this year's season he also trade older players in CJ and Olynyk for significantly younger players in Poole and Bey.

Also, small quibble with what one of the other folks mentioned as the starting group this year. I'm skeptical that Murray will be healthy at all this year but I definitely don't think he starts that way. Starting group is gonna have Trey in it and especially given the need for shooting and Trey's growth, I don't see that changing for the entirety of the year unless he gets injured.

I think the Pels will see how it goes this year with Zion and the vets, if its promising they can keep this group together in 26/27 without any issues and if it isn't, they will have Zion, Poole, and Bey on expiring deals not to mention tradeable pieces in Herb and Trey.

[gswhoops]

I think we too often do this thing where we don't understand or agree with a move a GM makes so we just assume that they will do other moves that don't make sense. Siakam is 31 years old. Although he made a move that essentially tank-proofs this year's season he also trade older players in CJ and Olynyk for significantly younger players in Poole and Bey.

Also, small quibble with what one of the other folks mentioned as the starting group this year. I'm skeptical that Murray will be healthy at all this year but I definitely don't think he starts that way. Starting group is gonna have Trey in it and especially given the need for shooting and Trey's growth, I don't see that changing for the entirety of the year unless he gets injured.

I think the Pels will see how it goes this year with Zion and the vets, if its promising they can keep this group together in 26/27 without any issues and if it isn't, they will have Zion, Poole, and Bey on expiring deals not to mention tradeable pieces in Herb and Trey.

I don't think that's what the OP is saying at all. By dealing a 2026 unprotected 1st (and trading an expiring CJ for Poole), Dumars is signaling an intention to win now. Siakam, as a more experienced and more consistent player, is arguably a better "win now" piece than Zion.

It's fine to disagree with the premise or the value, but to dismiss it all as nonsensical because you think it doesn't align with the team's direction isn't fair either.

[Praetor]

Zion Williamson, except for 23-24, has on/off in the 86, 87, 90, 95th percentiles. That's 4500 minutes of superb impact, although counterbalanced by 2200 minutes of very poor impact in 23-24. I tend to write off 23-24 for Zion as a recovery season but even if it's not, I think Zion has solidly established himself as a winning player.

What might surprise some people is Zion has consistently (again exception 23-24) had a positive impact on defense as well as offense, though not to the same extent.

I like Siakam but it's not like he was a winning player when forced to play center surrounded by a bunch of mediocre and ill-fitting pieces either. I would rather roll the dice with Zion. The pick swap is already sunk cost.

Disagree with the bolded part. As the best player on the Raptors over 2 seasons (2021-2023) -- without any C or any backup PG -- Siakam led them to an 89-75 record. That's obviously not a contender, but more like slightly above .500 first round exit. And I've got today's Siakam being a slightly better player than 2 years ago, and the Indiana roster around him being a bit better than the Raptors roster around him a couple of years back.

Zion needs 2 things to succeed: health, and being the focal point of attack. While he might be healthy, I'm not sure if Zion would be a great fit in Indiana's offence which relies on a lot of off-ball action that we just haven't seen from Zion, and if Zion dominates the ball that will be at the expense of other creators on Indiana. I don't think the trade is a good gamble for Indiana

I like this take. It's fair that Zion has historically wanted the ball in his hands. And that might lead you to think that would be incompatible with Hali. But I will point out while talking heads made a big deal out of Haliburton passing to Nembhard to initiate the offense in the playoffs, he did that to varying degrees all season. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary for Haliburton to pass to Zion and space the floor, move, cut, etc. to get the ball back, as he already does that with Nembhard. And point Zion can be a thing for the next two seasons with no concerns.

To me, the high outcome is a Grant Hill miraculous healthy stretch for Zion, at which point that third year with a fully healthy Haliburton has the juice to win a title. The middle road is Zion continues to play amazing for 30 games per season or is medically retired. At which point you have traded Siakam for some highlights and a couple trips to the lottery and a flier on Missi becoming a solid starter on the next version of the Pacers. The low version of this is that Zion and his legal issues are a big distraction, the team feels like a mess, and now you have players wanting out due to perceived incompetence of the front office in trading Siakam for a guy that doesn't play and a prospect that maxed out as a mediocre rotation big.

Truth is this trade might be too risky for both teams, and both will want draft compensation they can point to to show that they didn't get screwed if the high or low outcome happens. I just thought the fit and timelines were solid for both teams and there was already some Missi buzz in Indy, but that angle wasn't being talked about.

[Praetor]

I think we too often do this thing where we don't understand or agree with a move a GM makes so we just assume that they will do other moves that don't make sense. Siakam is 31 years old. Although he made a move that essentially tank-proofs this year's season he also trade older players in CJ and Olynyk for significantly younger players in Poole and Bey.

Also, small quibble with what one of the other folks mentioned as the starting group this year. I'm skeptical that Murray will be healthy at all this year but I definitely don't think he starts that way. Starting group is gonna have Trey in it and especially given the need for shooting and Trey's growth, I don't see that changing for the entirety of the year unless he gets injured.

I think the Pels will see how it goes this year with Zion and the vets, if its promising they can keep this group together in 26/27 without any issues and if it isn't, they will have Zion, Poole, and Bey on expiring deals not to mention tradeable pieces in Herb and Trey.

I don't think that's what the OP is saying at all. By dealing a 2026 unprotected 1st (and trading an expiring CJ for Poole), Dumars is signaling an intention to win now. Siakam, as a more experienced and more consistent player, is arguably a better "win now" piece than Zion.

It's fine to disagree with the premise or the value, but to dismiss it all as nonsensical because you think it doesn't align with the team's direction isn't fair either.

To be fair, I'm not NOT saying Joe Dumars is stupid. But the Poole and Queen moves are the moves of someone who does not intend on being a lottery team next year. And it's hard to not be a lottery team when you've got $30m in salary tied to a guy who plays 30 games a year and has a pending rape lawsuit.

[basketballwacko2]

Zion is untouchable (in a bad way) until his legal issues get resolved

I agree for the most part if I was interested in this I'd wan the picks going to the Pacers. Zion's injury history is the problem.

While the initial $197 million is guaranteed, the final three years of the deal (2025-26, 2026-27, and 2027-28) became non-guaranteed after he missed more than 22 games in the 2022-23 season

He did miss more than 22 games in the 2022-23 season. He missed 53 games by my count therefor he's not guaranteed. If he is traded I think the 2025-26 money becomes guaranteed but not the remaining years.

I might trade Siakam for Zion and Missi with 2 #1 picks with say top 10 protection 2029 and 31. The Pels owe their 2027 pick to Atlanta "I think" if I'm reading the info page correctly.

Zion is too big a risk to miss all or most of the season for me to do this the OP way or even without the picks to Indiana.

[basketballwacko2]

Zion is untouchable (in a bad way) until his legal issues get resolved

What if Zion agrees to a gastric bypass before the trade?

[Praetor]

Zion is untouchable (in a bad way) until his legal issues get resolved

What if Zion agrees to a gastric bypass before the trade?

You're joking, but I do think going to a healthier city might help. But trading Boudin and beignets for tenderloin sandwiches and Rise and Roll isn't much of an upgrade.

[basketballwacko2]

Zion is untouchable (in a bad way) until his legal issues get resolved

What if Zion agrees to a gastric bypass before the trade?

You're joking, but I do think going to a healthier city might help. But trading Boudin and beignets for tenderloin sandwiches and Rise and Roll isn't much of an upgrade.

It's a joke yes, but he's listed at 6'6'' 284 more like 315 or more and hurt all the time, if he doesn't get down to about 245 he's gonna break down to the point that he will be done by age 30 or less. He'll be 25 in 4 days. Someone has to get this guy on a diet or Ozempic or a Gastric Bypass ect or he's gonna be toast.

Look at the number of games he's missed I know he has all kind of potential but the risk is too great that he continues to be over weight and injured.

[Wizop]

Pacers offer a 2nd for Missi. would you rather get Tony Bradley? Bradley has no guaranteed money.

[One_and_Done]

I think you have it backwards. This is the deal Dumars makes if he is the GM of Indiana.

[Scoot McGroot]

Pacers offer a 2nd for Missi. would you rather get Tony Bradley? Bradley has no guaranteed money.

Missi is clearly worth a 1st.