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pepe1991 wrote:Year later, SGA+ Chet+ J Will = $156M on it's own
Knightro wrote:pepe1991 wrote:Knightro wrote:
Yeah but they have a team option on Hartenstein for $28.5M for 26-27 that they can easily just decline and give them plenty of wiggle room. He’s not an essential piece moving forward.
They’re gonna be completely fine the next two years.
27-28 is where it’s gonna start to actually get brutal when SGA’s deal jumps from 40M to 64M on its own.
Again, to me it depends how this season plays out. if they are once again top tear team, it makes sense to run back, if they aren't, mini retool for better flexibility will be made. My point was- current roster can only be ran back one more year ( by losing I Hart and Dort / Caruso it's not same team ).
If we talk running back in sense of Chet, SGA & J Will, than sure , that core won't go anywhere for at least 2 more years.
I’d be willing to bet that they move on from Hartenstein after this season no matter what. Whether they win the NBA title or not.
He’s just not an essential piece moving forward for them.
Bensational wrote:pepe1991 wrote:Year later, SGA+ Chet+ J Will = $156M on it's own
And that’s more or less what we’ll be paying for Paolo, Franz, Bane and Suggs combined that season, too.
At some point some franchise is going to have to realise it’s simply not worth paying a franchise player the salary of two Allstar calibre players. Franchise players are gonna be the end of their own competitiveness if they’re all chasing the bag and self interests.
Parity in nba isn't parity.
For past 20 years you can pick 3 teams on start of every year , and one of them would win all 20 times. With new changes, nothing changed. It's still same, predictable league, because winning title without top 5 player is still impossible task and that narrows "parity" down to several teams.
You kind a already know 2025-26 title winner. It's Houston, OKC or Denver. Nobody else in nba even has puncher's chance but maybe some Cavs/ Knicks if they go through East healthy and got lucky in playoffs via injury ( but chances for this are >2% ).
Parity would be level field of play for every team to win title that year. But such thing does not exist. Current modern "parity" just means smaller market teams can win. Nuggets / OKC entered their 2022-23 & 2024-25 as clear top favorites to win. Both teams won. In between Celtics did the same and won.
Current CBA is nothing but purposeful sabotage made for top teams to prevent them to stay on top for more than 2-3 years. It's artificially created obstacle created to prevent sustained success.
Basically, championship window, due second apron penalty is shorten down so fans don't get tired of same - good-team. (subjective opinion- once nba handpicks next face of the League, this will change, because League loves them handpicked in finals every year and during those periods gambling, fake players agency and rape charges ain't issue ).
pepe1991 wrote:For past 20 years you can pick 3 teams on start of every year , and one of them would win all 20 times. With new changes, nothing changed. It's still same, predictable league, because winning title without top 5 player is still impossible task and that narrows "parity" down to several teams.
You kind a already know 2025-26 title winner. It's Houston, OKC or Denver. Nobody else in nba even has puncher's chance but maybe some Cavs/ Knicks if they go through East healthy and got lucky in playoffs via injury ( but chances for this are >2% ).
<snip>
Still, current CBA makes it impossible to be contender for more than 3 years. And if your star player gets hurt, you are so screwed.
Bensational wrote:pepe1991 wrote:For past 20 years you can pick 3 teams on start of every year , and one of them would win all 20 times. With new changes, nothing changed. It's still same, predictable league, because winning title without top 5 player is still impossible task and that narrows "parity" down to several teams.
You kind a already know 2025-26 title winner. It's Houston, OKC or Denver. Nobody else in nba even has puncher's chance but maybe some Cavs/ Knicks if they go through East healthy and got lucky in playoffs via injury ( but chances for this are >2% ).
<snip>
Still, current CBA makes it impossible to be contender for more than 3 years. And if your star player gets hurt, you are so screwed.
Parity means that teams have reduced windows now. You claim it’s easy to call who the champions will be at the start of a season, without parity we were looking at GSW and LeBron super teams clogging up the finals every year. Before that it was Lakers, Celtics and Spurs.
Last 7 years we’ve had:
GSW vs Toronto - Toronto champs
LAL vs Miami- Lakers champs
Phoenix vs Milwaukee - Milwaukee champs
GSW vs Boston - GSW champs
Denver vs Miami - Denver champs
Dallas vs Boston - Boston champs
OKC vs Indiana - OKC champs
7 different champions and only 3 repeat finalists. Jokic has been with Denver the whole time. Giannis with Milwaukee the whole time. Steph with GSW the whole time. Tatum and Brown with Boston that whole time. But only 1 championship each for them.
That’s parity. It’s nowhere near as easy as you think it is to predict winners - if it was I’m sure you’d be a rich man. And such parity guarantees it’ll be near impossible to predict a winner in 3 years time.
SOUL wrote:I do get that you don't want the NBA to become random number generator parity, that's not fun either, but I do think in both eras of "superteams" vs "parity", the team(s) with the best player(s) will rise to the top. But it's nice to see that players who can kick it up another gear in the playoffs while not necessarily being a top 5-10 player during the season can also will their team to go far (Haliburton/Jimmy).
I also just think the league is super talented now and it's really hard to win. You need a lot of luck both with the ball and injuries.
NFL is a league with a massive amount of parity and still has dynasties, partially because of close games going a specific team's way (the Chiefs) and being led by hall of famers like Mahomes/Kelce, but even they have had to do it with different players coming in and out as far as depth went.
I saw a post on reddit from two years ago:
NBA: 15 out of 30 franchises have made the NBA Finals since 2003.
NFL: 20 out of 32 franchises have made the Super Bowl since 2003.
MLB: 19 out of 30 franchises have made the World Series since 2002.
NHL: 24 out of 32 franchises have made the Stanley Cup Finals since 2003.
You can argue that the NBA was dipping too far into imbalance of dynasties when your league is falling massively behind in maintaining competitive balance. It's always going to be a tight rope to walk, and this CBA will certainly tweak itself as far as course correcting anything that went too far into parity team building in 2029-2030 when the new one is discussed.
pepe1991 wrote:I actually remember Heat titles better than last 5 titles combined. Is it subjective? Sure. But rooting for or against Lebron is way more engaging for fans than watch OKC vs Pacers. Tv ratings prove my point.
And that was a short-lived team too, compared to the Warriors dynasty whose main cast stuck around a decade plus. But even their super team version with Durant couldn't last long with old CBA (three years). But you could have Curry/Klay/Green with a rotating cast of characters for a long time.
BadMofoPimp wrote:Knightro wrote:basketballRob wrote:I'm interested to see if Presti low-balls Chet and Jalen Williams this summer.
Definitely not IMO.
Chet will get a 25% max and Jalen will get a 25% max that can become a 30% max if he reaches All-NBA.
I don't think Chet is worth that much but he will get it regardless. I would have done a sign and trade of Chet for 2 solid players and draft capital.
SOUL wrote:pepe1991 wrote:I actually remember Heat titles better than last 5 titles combined. Is it subjective? Sure. But rooting for or against Lebron is way more engaging for fans than watch OKC vs Pacers. Tv ratings prove my point.
To be fair, LeBron is also GOAT level top 2 player not in his prime anymore. If he was, and he was on a team with an equivalent of Wade/Bosh level side-kicks (which isn't impossible to build nowadays), you'd prob see a similar two chips in four years sort of scenario like the Heat back then, and that was with an entirely different CBA.
It's memorable for a load of different reasons though outside of CBA discussions - mainly because there was never an NBA moment like "taking my talents to South Beach" and the anticipation of LeBron joining the Heat joined by Bosh and forming the equivalent of Hulk Hogan joining the NWO.
LeBron's decision was an instant storyline where the entire NBA fanbase as a whole was invested in the success or failure of the Heat. Perfect timing of GOAT level player moving on from Cleveland and joining up with All-Stars.
You're sort of waiting for the bread baking now for some young stars with an equivalent sort of buzz around them, but Wemby doesn't seem like a guy that will attract that sort of attention. Edwards isn't compelling enough yet. Jokic/Doncic/Giannis could cause some chaos. Other young stars aren't really at a top 10 level yet.
But I do think dynasties are being looked at with a bit of rose-colored glasses. Just lik how people look at the old Spurs who played amazing team-first basketball and revolutionized the game in a lot of ways, but at the time of that, all you heard was "boring" their stars were and how nobody cared about them. Now you have people openly wishing for teams like that again.
drsd wrote:BadMofoPimp wrote:Knightro wrote:
Definitely not IMO.
Chet will get a 25% max and Jalen will get a 25% max that can become a 30% max if he reaches All-NBA.
I don't think Chet is worth that much but he will get it regardless. I would have done a sign and trade of Chet for 2 solid players and draft capital.
A team cannot afford three max players in this CBA. Holmgren will likely be traded at some point.
Bensational wrote:pepe1991 wrote:Year later, SGA+ Chet+ J Will = $156M on it's own
And that’s more or less what we’ll be paying for Paolo, Franz, Bane and Suggs combined that season, too.
At some point some franchise is going to have to realise it’s simply not worth paying a franchise player the salary of two Allstar calibre players. Franchise players are gonna be the end of their own competitiveness if they’re all chasing the bag and self interests.
pepe1991 wrote:Bensational wrote:pepe1991 wrote:Year later, SGA+ Chet+ J Will = $156M on it's own
And that’s more or less what we’ll be paying for Paolo, Franz, Bane and Suggs combined that season, too.
At some point some franchise is going to have to realise it’s simply not worth paying a franchise player the salary of two Allstar calibre players. Franchise players are gonna be the end of their own competitiveness if they’re all chasing the bag and self interests.
From my post from GB yesterdayParity in nba isn't parity.
For past 20 years you can pick 3 teams on start of every year , and one of them would win all 20 times. With new changes, nothing changed. It's still same, predictable league, because winning title without top 5 player is still impossible task and that narrows "parity" down to several teams.
You kind a already know 2025-26 title winner. It's Houston, OKC or Denver. Nobody else in nba even has puncher's chance but maybe some Cavs/ Knicks if they go through East healthy and got lucky in playoffs via injury ( but chances for this are >2% ).
Parity would be level field of play for every team to win title that year. But such thing does not exist. Current modern "parity" just means smaller market teams can win. Nuggets / OKC entered their 2022-23 & 2024-25 as clear top favorites to win. Both teams won. In between Celtics did the same and won.
Current CBA is nothing but purposeful sabotage made for top teams to prevent them to stay on top for more than 2-3 years. It's artificially created obstacle created to prevent sustained success.
Basically, championship window, due second apron penalty is shorten down so fans don't get tired of same - good-team. (subjective opinion- once nba handpicks next face of the League, this will change, because League loves them handpicked in finals every year and during those periods gambling, fake players agency and rape charges ain't issue ).
Basically new CBA is created to stop teams like Warriors to "buy " title like they did in 2022. In finals, they faced Celtics, and had $42M higher payroll than Celtics.
Still, current CBA makes it impossible to be contender for more than 3 years. And if your star player gets hurt, you are so screwed.
drsd wrote:BadMofoPimp wrote:Knightro wrote:
Definitely not IMO.
Chet will get a 25% max and Jalen will get a 25% max that can become a 30% max if he reaches All-NBA.
I don't think Chet is worth that much but he will get it regardless. I would have done a sign and trade of Chet for 2 solid players and draft capital.
A team cannot afford three max players in this CBA. Holmgren will likely be traded at some point.
jonbob17 wrote:drsd wrote:BadMofoPimp wrote:
I don't think Chet is worth that much but he will get it regardless. I would have done a sign and trade of Chet for 2 solid players and draft capital.
A team cannot afford three max players in this CBA. Holmgren will likely be traded at some point.
I mean the Magic are about to have 3.75 max players. Coming off their rookie extension. Suggs with a slight discount.
pepe1991 wrote:
New CBA and aprons are killing nba.
No matter if you do everything right, due how restrictive second apron is, you will have to retool or blow it up in very short period of time.
OKC has 1 year left in them to run back same team. After that they need to retool.
From POV of young pretender, it's better to have +B team but all the assets than -A team and no assets. Because +B team can cash in everything and go balls out for 2-3 years, where former kind a has nothing to sell but young players that are integral part of that team being good.
That's how OKC actually won title in first place. They had very good group of guys and lot of assets. Than cashed in salary cap ( I Hart) + assets ( Giddey) for actual contributor.
Saving grace for OKC is fact that they have SOO MUCH assets in picks, unlike majority of other young teams. But still, with SGA's mega max and two max contracts pending, it will be very challenging for them to navigate in future. Won't be shocked if one of Chet/J Will is gone after 25-26. If they win again ( and let's be objective, they are by far biggest title favorites, it's either them Houston or Denver), than it becomes tempting to run back for 3-peat that NBA didn't have in very, very long time.
