2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[Dr Positivity]

Turner is tremendous fit with Giannis who is something of super Siakam. I like it the more I think of it. Just get the potential Gordon to his Jokic for now and Bucks was always multi year project.

[GSP]

Turner is tremendous fit with Giannis who is something of super Siakam. I like it the more I think of it. Just get the potential Gordon to his Jokic for now and Bucks was always multi year project.

I mean is Myles that different than Brook Lopez? Brook is just past his prime but the prime version of him was better than Myles and the same type of archetype. He was a Dpoy finalist, one of the premier rim protectors, 3pt numbers are about the same as Myles, neither are strong rebounders and don't have much in the way of handles or passing. Brook had a great post game to go to outside of the spotup 3s which made his scoring more robust and dynamic than Myles

[The-Power]

I’m not quite as optimistic on Denver’s moves as others are. I think they are smart moves, but they’re not slam dunks.

I'd agree that they are not slam dunks (in case some are arguing this). But those are all moves that, to me, are likely to improve Denver at the margins. And for a team that was highly competitive with the eventual champions and has the best player in the world on the roster, several such moves can end up making a big difference. So while none of the moves are home runs, Denver fans should be a lot more excited about the upcoming season now than a couple days ago.

[Dr Positivity]

Turner is tremendous fit with Giannis who is something of super Siakam. I like it the more I think of it. Just get the potential Gordon to his Jokic for now and Bucks was always multi year project.

I mean is Myles that different than Brook Lopez? Brook is just past his prime but the prime version of him was better than Myles and the same type of archetype. He was a Dpoy finalist, one of the premier rim protectors, 3pt numbers are about the same as Myles, neither are strong rebounders and don't have much in the way of handles or passing. Brook had a great post game to go to outside of the spotup 3s which made his scoring more robust and dynamic than Myles

Well resetting the Brook Lopez level C to 29 year old is pretty good for Bucks considering the success of the formula. I think Turner being used to fast team is nice as the Bucks were top 2 pace from 19-21 thougH I agree Lopez having posting up previous life helped them sometimes and has always been subtle helps team rebounding with boxing out player.

[Fadeaway_J]

Turner is tremendous fit with Giannis who is something of super Siakam. I like it the more I think of it. Just get the potential Gordon to his Jokic for now and Bucks was always multi year project.

I mean is Myles that different than Brook Lopez? Brook is just past his prime but the prime version of him was better than Myles and the same type of archetype. He was a Dpoy finalist, one of the premier rim protectors, 3pt numbers are about the same as Myles, neither are strong rebounders and don't have much in the way of handles or passing. Brook had a great post game to go to outside of the spotup 3s which made his scoring more robust and dynamic than Myles

Well resetting the Brook Lopez level C to 29 year old is pretty good for Bucks considering the success of the formula. I think Turner being used to fast team is nice as the Bucks were top 2 pace from 19-21 thougH I agree Lopez having posting up previous life helped them sometimes and has always been subtle helps team rebounding with boxing out player.

On the other hand, Turner's superior athleticism should be more valuable as Giannis isn't the same omnipresent defensive force he used to be. I don't think a static rim protector like Lopez is cutting it any more.

[Verticality]

Myles Turner will be missed. We do not make finals without.

[tsherkin]

On the other hand, Turner's superior athleticism should be more valuable as Giannis isn't the same omnipresent defensive force he used to be. I don't think a static rim protector like Lopez is cutting it any more.

I mean, Lopez from 4 years ago would be better than what he was this year at 35, to be sure. But yes, more lateral mobility is generally better, I agree. Part of Milwaukee's problem has been Giannis' drop-off on D, but obviously they've had a BUNCH of different issues with which to contend.

[Doctor MJ]

Turner is tremendous fit with Giannis who is something of super Siakam. I like it the more I think of it. Just get the potential Gordon to his Jokic for now and Bucks was always multi year project.

I mean is Myles that different than Brook Lopez? Brook is just past his prime but the prime version of him was better than Myles and the same type of archetype. He was a Dpoy finalist, one of the premier rim protectors, 3pt numbers are about the same as Myles, neither are strong rebounders and don't have much in the way of handles or passing. Brook had a great post game to go to outside of the spotup 3s which made his scoring more robust and dynamic than Myles

Alright so let me first say that I'm not hear to endorse the Bucks as contenders in '25-26, and frankly I don't know the point of waiving Dame if they don't contend in '25-26. The GM (Horst) is one of these guys who just seems to have a way more secure relationship with ownership than his performance warrants.

But regarding Brook & Myles, details aside, I like the idea of replacing Brook with Myles. Reasoning:

1. Brook's been fantastic next to Giannis and it makes sense to seek out now someone younger (rather than older) than Giannis to replace him.

2. Myles actually has a MUCH stronger defensive reputation than Brook did prior to becoming a Buck. While it makes sense to knock Myles' D now compared to win he was younger, if old man Brook was close to ideal as a Giannis teammate, I don't think Myles it at all too old to make it work.

3. Having a defensive 5 who can also plausibly hit from 3 is essential for Giannis. Giannis can't Giannis with another big in there clogging the paint.

The obvious concerns:

1. Wait, Dame is still going to be counting against the Bucks cap for a half decade???

2. Wait, wasn't Myles' 3-bricking central to why the Pacers weren't able to actually gain the advantage over the Thunder???

3. Wait, wasn't the whole idea of the Bucks being able to utilize a more stationary defensive big based on Giannis having a youthful defensive motor he no longer has?

4. Wait, the Bucks are going all in on contending around Giannis one more time with a "Big 3" of salaries: Giannis, Myles, Kyle Kuzma? Kuzma whose claim to fame as a champion was based on him being the Lakers' #7 playoff guy a half decade ago, and as of right now he has a career playoff PER of 7.7, with him not rating higher than 3.3 in the years since the cip?

So yeah, I'm not all-in on what the Bucks are doing at all, but I don't see Myles as a bad get as one of your 5 key guys. The issue is just that I don't see anyone else on the roster that looks like a #2 or 3 guy like Khris/Jrue.

Practically speaking, it feels like the most likely scenario is that the Bucks disappoint next year and are forced to let Giannis go. At which point they'll likely end up trading Myles and anyone else who has value (if anyone else has value). I could literally see a scenario where the Pacers trade to get Myles back in a year.

[Doctor MJ]

I’m not quite as optimistic on Denver’s moves as others are. I think they are smart moves, but they’re not slam dunks.

Bruce Brown has played pretty badly after leaving Denver, and may just be washed now. Cam Johnson has a lot of injuries. And Jonas Valanciunas just was on the Wizards and will be 33 years old, so could well be washed next year. Or maybe Bruce Brown will get back to form when playing on the Nuggets again, and Cam Johnson will be healthy, and Valanciunas will not be washed and will be a great backup center.

On balance, I still think they’ve very likely improved a good bit, but it seems plausible to me that Bruce Brown and Valanciunas will end up being just as unplayable as the rest of the Nuggets bench and that Cam Johnson will end up injured. Hopefully not though. And even if Valanciunas is pretty washed, he’ll still very likely to be better than DeAndre Jordan, so that one almost can’t help but be an improvement.

So, I think I agree with you about the substance, but I'm still just really happy they're doing what they're doing after 2 years of ???.

Them getting Brown back makes me happy. He's not going to turn the team back into champions on his own, but I expect he can be a valuable member of their playoff rotation.

I feel relief with them cutting ties with Porter while acquiring a plausible replacement. I'll never stop saying I thought Porter played well enough to earn that max contract before he got it, but him failing to match his pre-contract play was a millstone around the team's neck, and his poor judgment (to say nothing of his family) always made me nervous generally. I hope Porter figures some things out in his new context - I'm not cheering against him - but I'm glad the Nuggets moved on, in part because it just gets so tricky when you ask a prime-age guy to take a major pay cut from his previous.

The Nuggets build a Big 3 around 3 draft picks from 2014 (Jokic), 2016 (Murray) & 2018 (Porter) respectively, and it just turned out that by the time the Nuggets were actually competing for (and winning) the title, that 2018 wasn't just less that a Top 3 player on the team, but arguably not even a Top 5 guy (Jokic, Murray, Gordon, KCP, Brown). You typically don't win a title like that, and winning another title like that several years later just doesn't seem likely.

I also want to give a specific shout out to the 2022 draft pick (Braun), who really was outstanding last year. Didn't justify letting KCP go because depth really required both, but to me he felt like one of the 3 most reliable guys (along with Jokic & Gordon) last year.

So then when look a Top 6 of Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun, Johnson, Brown, this seems like a significant win to me for the Nuggets. Will it be enough to top a Thunder team that's probably even better next year? Probably not, but it's a reasonable way to continue building your Jokic era right now.

Of course:

1. Maybe Johnson doesn't work out.
2. Maybe Brown can't get the magic back.
3. Maybe Murray never has another post-season like 2020 & 2023.

But given where the Nuggets are, I like their off-season.

[tsherkin]

1. Maybe Johnson doesn't work out.
2. Maybe Brown can't get the magic back.
3. Maybe Murray never has another post-season like 2020 & 2023.

But given where the Nuggets are, I like their off-season.

Brown was only so critical to begin with, though, right? He's a low-volume guy, and while he shot pretty well in that limited volume in the 23 run, he was also crap from 3. He was useful, and he'll be useful again. I don't think he needs to be anything particularly special to be of value, especially since he's primarily going to be there to spell Cam. If Johnson is healthy come the playoffs, that's all they need from him. He can load manage and all that stuff and as long as he can be better than MPJ in the OKC series, he'll have been a good idea for the Nuggets.

I am curious to see how Jonas works out, but the more I think of it, the more it seems quite a good idea. He's a reserve, he's a great rebounder at either end, he can pass a bit, he has some amount of range, he's quite good at the line, etc.

Murray will look like Murray usually looks, probably. The Lakers series in 2023 was electrifying, but it isn't reasonable to count on that from him. But even this year, they just needed MPJ to be healthy and they probably exit the conference and have a real shot at a title. So if he can just show up to camp in shape and stay moderately healthy come the playoffs, he'll probably be quite useful to them again.

[Doctor MJ]

Houston zagging while everyones zigging. Going all in on size and offensive rebounding. They lapped the league in offensive rebounding last season when Adams played. Sengun,Adams,Capela is one of the biggest center rotations i can remember. Now theyve replaced Brooks w/ a bigger, better rebounder in Dorian and a better defender too. No more little Jalen now they have 6'11 Kd......

The Rockets are probably the most interesting team going into next season. I wouldn't consider them title favorites, but they are very scary.

What I'm going to be looking in particular:

1. How does KD take to Udoka's defense? In Brooklyn, KD & Kyrie basically vetoed attempts to implement a modern defensive scheme, and now KD is half a decade older without any evidence of improved defensive buy-in.

On the other hand, KD knows Udoka and clearly wanted to go play for him. It's possible that KD will come in with a professional attitude we haven't seen since he came to the Warriors in 2016 (and which lasted for one season).

On the 3rd hand, even KD buying in might not be enough to prevent the defense taking a major dip. He's simply not capable of the kind of sustained defensive effort that the average member of the young core gave them last year, so unless Udoka has some specific new ideas for KD on defense, it will make the D more vulnerable.

2. What does the offensive scheme look like now? Certainly that ORtg is gong to jump as a result of them managing to trade their worst rotation player (Green), who was also their primary scorer, for KD. But while I'm sure Udoka has a lot of expert thoughts about the defense, I kinda feel like the offense is mostly going to be about VanVleet, Sengun, Amen & KD figuring it out together, and while I'm sure it will be good relative to league average, we might see guys lost in the shuffle.

If VanVleet ends up being lost in the shuffle, that's not anything to fear. He's older and arguably has primacy above his ideal role previously.

If Sengun ends up being lost in the shuffle, they'll need to trade him ASAP. Personally I might want the offense to continue to grow around Sengun, but if they don't make him the focal point, there's a good chance he ends up slotting in as a role player with limited offensive impact playing with lineups that aren't as suited to letting him function optimally on offense.

If Amen ends up being lost in the shuffle, this might cap his growth at a time when it seems like his potential is limitless. That might be for the best depending on what his offensive ceiling as a decision maker is, but if you do see him as potentially your next franchise player, it'd be a shame to stymy his growth in order to try to win a chip by adding an old mercenary to a young core.

[tsherkin]

The Rockets were a 7-game out against the Warriors (a 48-win team) as they were last year. Yeah, Jimmy was dragging and all, but still. That was pretty impressive. And now they have a real scorer, old as he is. If they're healthy, they likely won't go down easily, for sure.

The defense is an interesting thought. I think that he'll bring enough on O to help offset what he'll do to them defensively, but it will be interesting to see how Udoka manages.

[jalengreen]

Not totally sure on what their rotation will look like but on paper -Jalen/Brooks +Durant/DFS seems like good value on defense. Jalen was a downright bad defender, comfortably the worst in the rotation. Just getting his minutes out of the picture should be a boon. Question being how exactly those minutes are being filled

[tsherkin]

Not totally sure on what their rotation will look like but on paper -Jalen/Brooks +Durant/DFS seems like good value on defense. Jalen was a downright bad defender, comfortably the worst in the rotation. Just getting his minutes out of the picture should be a boon. Question being how exactly those minutes are being filled

I mean, just getting him out of the way on offense is going to have a similar impact, heh.

[Doctor MJ]

Thoughts on other teams:

Lakers - this feels like a complete disaster. To me, while making the Luka trade was a clear cut win in the abstract, it had to come with an understanding that the team would not be a contender until they built the right core around Luka.

However, the extra bit of goodness is that they had already acquired Dorian Finney-Smith who was already known to be a perfect fit with Luka. Because the Lakers had DFS, it felt like they were already a good chunk of the way there, and just needed to add the right sort of bigs.

But now the Lakers have lost DFS apparently specifically because GM Pelinka pulled some stuff that DFS' camp saw as sabotaging his contract offers, and so they decided to not even consider coming back to the Lakers. WTF? How do you screw things up that badly? Pelinka's been criticized for a lot in his Laker tenure, but while I'm not going to say he was perfect, the reality is I never saw him as a guy who literally chased away players the team needed before.

Obviously all this information is 3rd hand and maybe contradictory information will eventually emerged...but the Lakers needed DFS and sure seems like they could have got him.

The fact that the Lakers still haven't gotten a big that strikes me as a Luka-big (Ayton is low motor, meh attitude, reluctance to use physicality) makes it all the worse, and of course LeBron opting-in makes it much harder to get any other of the needs.

Hawks - aside from the issue of Porzingis being unreliable physically and my general reluctance to continue building around Trae, the Hawks seem like they're making some good decisions in support of their original (questionable) decision.

[Doctor MJ]

1. Maybe Johnson doesn't work out.
2. Maybe Brown can't get the magic back.
3. Maybe Murray never has another post-season like 2020 & 2023.

But given where the Nuggets are, I like their off-season.

Brown was only so critical to begin with, though, right? He's a low-volume guy, and while he shot pretty well in that limited volume in the 23 run, he was also crap from 3. He was useful, and he'll be useful again. I don't think he needs to be anything particularly special to be of value, especially since he's primarily going to be there to spell Cam. If Johnson is healthy come the playoffs, that's all they need from him. He can load manage and all that stuff and as long as he can be better than MPJ in the OKC series, he'll have been a good idea for the Nuggets.

I am curious to see how Jonas works out, but the more I think of it, the more it seems quite a good idea. He's a reserve, he's a great rebounder at either end, he can pass a bit, he has some amount of range, he's quite good at the line, etc.

Murray will look like Murray usually looks, probably. The Lakers series in 2023 was electrifying, but it isn't reasonable to count on that from him. But even this year, they just needed MPJ to be healthy and they probably exit the conference and have a real shot at a title. So if he can just show up to camp in shape and stay moderately healthy come the playoffs, he'll probably be quite useful to them again.

Yup, Brown's just a role player who there's reason to believe can shoot open 3's, and while that's not exactly rare, it makes no sense to build a roster around Jokic that skimps on role player shooting...which is precisely what the Nuggets had been doing recently.

Re: Jonas. Yeah we'll see. I'm not opposed, but I don't expect him to be playing a lot of minutes.

[tsherkin]

Yup, Brown's just a role player who there's reason to believe can shoot open 3's, and while that's not exactly rare, it makes no sense to build a roster around Jokic that skimps on role player shooting...which is precisely what the Nuggets had been doing recently.

If MPJ had been healthy against OKC, we might be having a different conversation. Gordon, Murray, MPJ and Braun wasn't exactly SHORT on shooting.

What they've really needed is literally ANYONE who could provide rim pressure from the wing and could shoot a little. They were making do with Russell Westbrook... which actually wasn't the worst more often than not, until his corner shooting died off.

Re: Jonas. Yeah we'll see. I'm not opposed, but I don't expect him to be playing a lot of minutes.

Yeah, I mean, he's there to back up Jokic; by definition, he can't be playing a lot. That's probably why there is this discussion of him trying to go to Greece.

[Doctor MJ]

The Rockets were a 7-game out against the Warriors (a 48-win team) as they were last year. Yeah, Jimmy was dragging and all, but still. That was pretty impressive. And now they have a real scorer, old as he is. If they're healthy, they likely won't go down easily, for sure.

The defense is an interesting thought. I think that he'll bring enough on O to help offset what he'll do to them defensively, but it will be interesting to see how Udoka manages.

Sure and the bare minimum expectation for a Durant acquisition is that he should be able to take a strong 1st round playoff team and at least get them to the 2nd round. Realistically they probably need to get to the WCF for the Durant-led team to be considered something other than a disappointment.

Worth noting that if these Rockets get to the WCF, it will be Durant's first time playing in the Conference Finals in 8 years when he was in his 20s. That perspective is a bit unfair because of his injury in 2019 and the weirdness of that one playoff run with Harden, but I do think it hammers in how long its been since KD's actually led a team to the promised land.

[Doctor MJ]

Yup, Brown's just a role player who there's reason to believe can shoot open 3's, and while that's not exactly rare, it makes no sense to build a roster around Jokic that skimps on role player shooting...which is precisely what the Nuggets had been doing recently.

If MPJ had been healthy against OKC, we might be having a different conversation. Gordon, Murray, MPJ and Braun wasn't exactly SHORT on shooting.

What they've really needed is literally ANYONE who could provide rim pressure from the wing and could shoot a little. They were making do with Russell Westbrook... which actually wasn't the worst more often than not, until his corner shooting died off.

Re: Jonas. Yeah we'll see. I'm not opposed, but I don't expect him to be playing a lot of minutes.

Yeah, I mean, he's there to back up Jokic; by definition, he can't be playing a lot. That's probably why there is this discussion of him trying to go to Greece.

Well, the Nuggets were dead last in 3-point rate last year. There might be an argument that Jokic's style of play is sub-optimal for maxing out 3PAr...but there was also the matter that last year Westbrook was the #3 3PA among Jokic's teammates, which is not something any team should want.

[tsherkin]

Sure and the bare minimum expectation for a Durant acquisition is that he should be able to take a strong 1st round playoff team and at least get them to the 2nd round. Realistically they probably need to get to the WCF for the Durant-led team to be considered something other than a disappointment.

Worth noting that if these Rockets get to the WCF, it will be Durant's first time playing in the Conference Finals in 8 years when he was in his 20s. That perspective is a bit unfair because of his injury in 2019 and the weirdness of that one playoff run with Harden, but I do think it hammers in how long its been since KD's actually led a team to the promised land.

Mmm. Yeah, but the contexts of those individual teams is also worth mentioning. He does have two titles from the last time he was in the WCFs.

And then after losing to us and leaving Golden State, he had the whole year off from injury. He had two injury-addled seasons with the Nets, one in which he lost a 7-game series to the eventual-champ Bucks in an insane MVP/DPOY/Finals MVP season from Giannis... during which he went down in Game 7 putting 48 on the Bucks while Harden shot 5/17 from the field and 2/12 from 3 and Joe Harris was 3/10.... and KD was 6/11 for 15 points in the 4th to get them into OT, where he gassed out and the rest of the team was 1/5 while Milwaukee scored 6 points. He and Harden played 53 minutes each that game.

Dunno how much I want to grill him for that. The year after, they got swept by a Boston team which exited the conference. And that was after a mid-season trade sent Harden away and Kyrie was injured for most of the year. Hard to give him too much grief for that, especially with the way Boston's D was focused on nothing but screwing him up in that series. They loaded up hard on him and they beat the snot out of the Nets on the O-boards.

So he goes to Phoenix and loses to the title Nuggets in the second round when Chris Paul goes down due to injury and Booker choking in game 6. They ate 44 from the Nuggets in the first quarter and never recovered. They lose Chris Paul to the Warriors and eat an epic first-round series from Ant, once again getting absolutely REAMED on the O-boards. Bradley Beal? Check. DeAndre Ayton? In Portland.

This year, Durant missed 20 games, they still had Bradley Beal, Booker had a down year from 3, they had no frontcourt and they were the 3rd-worst D in the league.

So, I'm willing to go on a little faith as far as what he might accomplish with Houston. They don't look like the team which will come out on top to me, but if they're healthy, they should threaten a WCF appearance. More probably a tough out in the second round.