2025 Offseason Thread Vol.4

[MiamiLoyal926]

Here is what is says on Spotrac:

"2026-27: $10,000,000 guaranteed, $12,000,000 guaranteed if makes All-Star in 2025 OR 2026, $14,000,000 guaranteed if makes All-Star in 2025 AND 2026, fully guaranteed if team makes 2025 or 2026 NBA Finals and player plays in at least 60 regular season games, or fully guaranteed 1/10/27"

So my understanding is Miami (or any team) would have the option to cut DeRozan by January of 2027. The most important thing to me is it gives Miami a lot of options: keep a good player, cut him, trade his expiring to a team that may need the savings to get under the 2nd apron/luxury tax...etc.

Generally correct. It has a narrow path to value in the 2nd year if a team has messy books and wants to turn $25M in cap allocation for a player into $10M in cap allocation without the benefit of a contributing player.

Definitely a hindrance for options for next offseason. Juice not worth the squeeze for me (unless its part of a larger all-in on now move like the KD move). But, we've already done our back and forth on this.

The thing is, who is Miami targeting in 2026? Seems like the best available will be LeBron. Fox and Luka are 99.9999% sure to sign extensions this summer. No one else is worth anywhere close to a max deal.

The salary cap is $154M this year, a 10% increase next year would put it at $170. According to hoopshype, Miami has $140M in committed salary, so ~$30M in space. The only path to max-player cap space would be if Miami trades Wiggins for an expiring or if Wiggins opted out and Miami renounced his rights.

On top of that, Miami will have to make decisions on Herro and Jovic's extensions and whether to re-sign Highsmith.

Having cap space also means we can absorb max star player via trade and give other team immediate cap relief while taking back minimal salaries and all the firsts required and that we may have to make the deal appealing. It’s not just for free agents, it’s useful for trades as well.

[batterybro42]

Generally correct. It has a narrow path to value in the 2nd year if a team has messy books and wants to turn $25M in cap allocation for a player into $10M in cap allocation without the benefit of a contributing player.

Definitely a hindrance for options for next offseason. Juice not worth the squeeze for me (unless its part of a larger all-in on now move like the KD move). But, we've already done our back and forth on this.

The thing is, who is Miami targeting in 2026? Seems like the best available will be LeBron. Fox and Luka are 99.9999% sure to sign extensions this summer. No one else is worth anywhere close to a max deal.

The salary cap is $154M this year, a 10% increase next year would put it at $170. According to hoopshype, Miami has $140M in committed salary, so ~$30M in space. The only path to max-player cap space would be if Miami trades Wiggins for an expiring or if Wiggins opted out and Miami renounced his rights.

On top of that, Miami will have to make decisions on Herro and Jovic's extensions and whether to re-sign Highsmith.

Having cap space also means we can absorb max star player via trade and give other team immediate cap relief while taking back minimal salaries and all the firsts required and that we may have to make the deal appealing. It’s not just for free agents, it’s useful for trades as well.

Flexibility would be very nice to have, I don’t have a massive issue with Miami soft punting on a year and letting all their young guys see what they can do. We will be right back here next year, but with a bigger war chest and more space.

I think getting Wiggins out of here for a draft pick is priority #1. Those late 2020s Lakers picks could end up being pretty valuable if you look at their situation. They might be really bad if something happens with Luka or he leaves.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Generally correct. It has a narrow path to value in the 2nd year if a team has messy books and wants to turn $25M in cap allocation for a player into $10M in cap allocation without the benefit of a contributing player.

Definitely a hindrance for options for next offseason. Juice not worth the squeeze for me (unless its part of a larger all-in on now move like the KD move). But, we've already done our back and forth on this.

The thing is, who is Miami targeting in 2026? Seems like the best available will be LeBron. Fox and Luka are 99.9999% sure to sign extensions this summer. No one else is worth anywhere close to a max deal.

The salary cap is $154M this year, a 10% increase next year would put it at $170. According to hoopshype, Miami has $140M in committed salary, so ~$30M in space. The only path to max-player cap space would be if Miami trades Wiggins for an expiring or if Wiggins opted out and Miami renounced his rights.

On top of that, Miami will have to make decisions on Herro and Jovic's extensions and whether to re-sign Highsmith.

you're getting there. Miami seems to be moving TOWARDS maximizing flexibility. Tying themselves to 36 and 37 year old Derozan for the sake of less flexibility is the exact opposite direction. BONUS: a worse draft pick and a 1st round exit. Woo hoo!

If Miami swapped Rozier and Anderson for DeRozan, Miami would basically be in the same spot cap-wise in summer 2026, owing $1-$3M more (depending on if DeRozan made his bonus) in a guarantee to DeRozan v Anderson, but Miami would still be dependent on a Wiggins exit for max cap space in 2026.

In any case, Miami isn't trying to tank/miss the playoffs. Even if Miami keeps Wiggins, he's still going to make Miami better. Miami is simply not tanking.

[MiamiLoyal926]

The thing is, who is Miami targeting in 2026? Seems like the best available will be LeBron. Fox and Luka are 99.9999% sure to sign extensions this summer. No one else is worth anywhere close to a max deal.

The salary cap is $154M this year, a 10% increase next year would put it at $170. According to hoopshype, Miami has $140M in committed salary, so ~$30M in space. The only path to max-player cap space would be if Miami trades Wiggins for an expiring or if Wiggins opted out and Miami renounced his rights.

On top of that, Miami will have to make decisions on Herro and Jovic's extensions and whether to re-sign Highsmith.

Having cap space also means we can absorb max star player via trade and give other team immediate cap relief while taking back minimal salaries and all the firsts required and that we may have to make the deal appealing. It’s not just for free agents, it’s useful for trades as well.

Flexibility would be very nice to have, I don’t have a massive issue with Miami soft punting on a year and letting all their young guys see what they can do. We will be right back here next year, but with a bigger war chest and more space.

I think getting Wiggins out of here for a draft pick is priority #1. Those late 2020s Lakers picks could end up being pretty valuable if you look at their situation. They might be really bad if something happens with Luka or he leaves.

That would be my ideal scenario frankly. I would actually enjoy turning this season into an extension of summer league. I am not saying this is great long term, but going in that direction this upcoming season, while we own our pick, and then turning up the heat next summer using our available salary and new draft pick to get back into the playoffs, while having all our picks resolved would be the strongest we have been in a while in terms of optionality and negotiating power to get a player of significance here. We do need our youth movement to have success though which includes Kaspar and the 2026 FRP.

[SA37]

Generally correct. It has a narrow path to value in the 2nd year if a team has messy books and wants to turn $25M in cap allocation for a player into $10M in cap allocation without the benefit of a contributing player.

Definitely a hindrance for options for next offseason. Juice not worth the squeeze for me (unless its part of a larger all-in on now move like the KD move). But, we've already done our back and forth on this.

The thing is, who is Miami targeting in 2026? Seems like the best available will be LeBron. Fox and Luka are 99.9999% sure to sign extensions this summer. No one else is worth anywhere close to a max deal.

The salary cap is $154M this year, a 10% increase next year would put it at $170. According to hoopshype, Miami has $140M in committed salary, so ~$30M in space. The only path to max-player cap space would be if Miami trades Wiggins for an expiring or if Wiggins opted out and Miami renounced his rights.

On top of that, Miami will have to make decisions on Herro and Jovic's extensions and whether to re-sign Highsmith.

Having cap space also means we can absorb max star player via trade and give other team immediate cap relief while taking back minimal salaries and all the firsts required and that we may have to make the deal appealing. It’s not just for free agents, it’s useful for trades as well.

Right, but my point is Miami is not guaranteed to have max cap space in 2026. If Wiggins opts in, that's it. And then if Miami wants to keep Jovic and Highsmith, they will eat into Miami's 2027 cap space -- as would Wiggins if Miami for whatever reason decided they wanted to keep him.

Trying to keep a roster that a max player feels is championship caliber while also having max cap space is almost impossible to do. There is a very narrow path to making this happen.

[MiamiLoyal926]

The thing is, who is Miami targeting in 2026? Seems like the best available will be LeBron. Fox and Luka are 99.9999% sure to sign extensions this summer. No one else is worth anywhere close to a max deal.

The salary cap is $154M this year, a 10% increase next year would put it at $170. According to hoopshype, Miami has $140M in committed salary, so ~$30M in space. The only path to max-player cap space would be if Miami trades Wiggins for an expiring or if Wiggins opted out and Miami renounced his rights.

On top of that, Miami will have to make decisions on Herro and Jovic's extensions and whether to re-sign Highsmith.

Having cap space also means we can absorb max star player via trade and give other team immediate cap relief while taking back minimal salaries and all the firsts required and that we may have to make the deal appealing. It’s not just for free agents, it’s useful for trades as well.

Right, but my point is Miami is not guaranteed to have max cap space in 2026. If Wiggins opts in, that's it. And then if Miami wants to keep Jovic and Highsmith, they will eat into Miami's 2027 cap space -- as would Wiggins if Miami for whatever reason decided they wanted to keep him.

Trying to keep a roster that a max player feels is championship caliber while also having max cap space is almost impossible to do. There is a very narrow path to making this happen.

You are right in the sense that we won’t have true max space in our cap, and still need to hope for a player we really like to become disgruntled over the summer and ask for a trade. To boot, said player would hoped match our roster needs or be a player we really like enough to build the roster around them. We need what Donovan Mitchell and Cavs had that summer a few years ago… the perfect combo of talent and assets to keep and trade at the right time… so we still need some luck to come our way.

[greg4012]

Spoiler:

The thing is, who is Miami targeting in 2026? Seems like the best available will be LeBron. Fox and Luka are 99.9999% sure to sign extensions this summer. No one else is worth anywhere close to a max deal.

The salary cap is $154M this year, a 10% increase next year would put it at $170. According to hoopshype, Miami has $140M in committed salary, so ~$30M in space. The only path to max-player cap space would be if Miami trades Wiggins for an expiring or if Wiggins opted out and Miami renounced his rights.

On top of that, Miami will have to make decisions on Herro and Jovic's extensions and whether to re-sign Highsmith.

you're getting there. Miami seems to be moving TOWARDS maximizing flexibility. Tying themselves to 36 and 37 year old Derozan for the sake of less flexibility is the exact opposite direction. BONUS: a worse draft pick and a 1st round exit. Woo hoo!

If Miami swapped Rozier and Anderson for DeRozan, Miami would basically be in the same spot cap-wise in summer 2026, owing $1-$3M more (depending on if DeRozan made his bonus) in a guarantee to DeRozan v Anderson, but Miami would still be dependent on a Wiggins exit for max cap space in 2026.

In any case, Miami isn't trying to tank/miss the playoffs. Even if Miami keeps Wiggins, he's still going to make Miami better. Miami is simply not tanking.

Kyle Anderson's contract is not guaranteed beyond next season. And since when is Sacramento giving away Derozan for free?

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Having cap space also means we can absorb max star player via trade and give other team immediate cap relief while taking back minimal salaries and all the firsts required and that we may have to make the deal appealing. It’s not just for free agents, it’s useful for trades as well.

Right, but my point is Miami is not guaranteed to have max cap space in 2026. If Wiggins opts in, that's it. And then if Miami wants to keep Jovic and Highsmith, they will eat into Miami's 2027 cap space -- as would Wiggins if Miami for whatever reason decided they wanted to keep him.

Trying to keep a roster that a max player feels is championship caliber while also having max cap space is almost impossible to do. There is a very narrow path to making this happen.

You are right in the sense that we won’t have true max space in our cap, and still need to hope for a player we really like to become disgruntled over the summer and ask for a trade. To boot, said player would hoped match our roster needs or be a player we really like enough to build the roster around them. We need what Donovan Mitchell and Cavs had that summer a few years ago… the perfect combo of talent and assets to keep and trade at the right time… so we still need some luck to come our way.

Yes, there is a balance to be struck here. Part of that balance is that Miami's youngns need to show they are quality NBA players, which they haven't up to now.

Bam, Herro, Wiggins, DeRozan/J Collins is much more appealing to a potential max free agent than Bam, Herro, and a group of 2nd rate prospects and G-leaguers.

The guy I left out of there is Ware because I think he has as much upside as he has meh-side. And I'm not sure he's going to make the jump some expect next year. I certainly don't think he is going to be the reason a max guy decides to come to Miami.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

you're getting there. Miami seems to be moving TOWARDS maximizing flexibility. Tying themselves to 36 and 37 year old Derozan for the sake of less flexibility is the exact opposite direction. BONUS: a worse draft pick and a 1st round exit. Woo hoo!

If Miami swapped Rozier and Anderson for DeRozan, Miami would basically be in the same spot cap-wise in summer 2026, owing $1-$3M more (depending on if DeRozan made his bonus) in a guarantee to DeRozan v Anderson, but Miami would still be dependent on a Wiggins exit for max cap space in 2026.

In any case, Miami isn't trying to tank/miss the playoffs. Even if Miami keeps Wiggins, he's still going to make Miami better. Miami is simply not tanking.

Kyle Anderson's contract is not guaranteed beyond next season.

Thanks for the correction. I checked Spotrac but I missed the footnote where it says it's not guaranteed. I wonder why it doesn't indicate a Team option.

[CrossOver]

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[MiamiLoyal926]

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I was worried he maybe did not have a good head on his shoulders, was not a gym rat or hard working, or perhaps concern of low IQ, and that’s why he dropped despite early hype. My thought was that yeams simply got scared off during workouts and interviews. Turns out he is talented and has the mentality and work ethic that will likely make him earn trust quick in the locker room …

How did such a perfect fit at a point of need drop to us!?!?

[MorbidHEAT]

The Heat aren’t done making moves yet, imo.

What do you mean they aren’t done? They’ve barely started making moves.

[carnageta]

Trading Wiggins for a few assets and dumping Rozier are the only other moves I'm hoping we make this summer.

Don't want Scary Terry taking court time from KP, DMitchell, Larrson, etc. Don't want Andrew taking court time from Jaime, Jovic, etc.

[MiamiLoyal926]

Trading Wiggins for a few assets and dumping Rozier are the only other moves I'm hoping we make this summer.

Don't want Scary Terry taking court time from KP, DMitchell, Larrson, etc. Don't want Andrew taking court time from Jaime, Jovic, etc.

This. I would, however, welcome other young kids fighting for JJJ and Jovic’s minutes. Hungry players and healthy competition is welcomed… as long as they do it within the schemes.

[MiamiLoyal926]

Circling back to LeBron talks… reminder that he has a No Trade clause… he holds the cards.

[EMC5466]

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[Beenie]

If Mia is firm on getting Knecht, FRP and Rui from LA, and that's indeed a cause for a stalemate, I wonder if they'd at least be open to throwing in a sweetener.

The Highsmith idea has been thrown around but if LA values a young piece like Jovic or Jaquez, I wonder if Mia would go there.

Personally, I'd rather have Knecht than either JJJ or Jovic.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Think the trade is going to be Hachimura, Kleber, Milton, and 2031 1st and pick swap for Wiggins and Love. We will release Milton and free up 3 extra million before his July 20th guaranteed.

[greg4012]

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Pullup shooting is the skillset that can supercharge everything with Kasparas’ trajectory. Will be fun to monitor

[Beenie]

Think the trade is going to be Hachimura, Kleber, Milton, and 2031 1st and pick swap for Wiggins and Love. We will release Milton and free up 3 extra million before his July 20th guaranteed.

Would be a disappointment if they fail to secure Knecht