Pelicans Called Bulls

[Infinity2152]

Without knowing where the Bulls had Noa on the board, there's no way to evaluate this deal. People are just mad. Noa's 18, super long, fits AK's profile to a tee. If the Bulls had Noa at 5 on the board, that trade would be the equivalent of trading pick 5 for pick 23 and 2026 first that even in the lottery could be as low as 14. I wouldn't trade Noa for pick 23 and say pick 12 next year if I thought he was a top 5 prospect.

When I say prospect, don't mean best right now, but highest ceiling regardless of floor. Nobody knows what AK is looking for except his people.

[dougthonus]

I still don't understand the extreme skepticism here:

1.) Eversely said they spoke to a team(s) about trading down.

2.) Dumars said they contacted every team after 9 until they had a deal.

3.) We have a half decade's worth of evidence that AKME don't particularly value draft capital.

Who is being skeptical of what? The only skepticism - better described as certainty, which is the problem - is coming from your side of the argument. No one disputes they discussed a trade. Its been explicitly confirmed by Dumars, and impliedly confirmed by Eversley.

FWIW, I have backed off certainty, and instead put this as having a probability low enough that I am willing to weigh this as an overwhelmingly possible trade that we did not have interest in.

What would you weigh these options at in your head:
1: we were not interested and had this offer
2: we were not interested enough to push a negotiation to get this offer
3: we were interested and would have done this but weren't good enough at negotiating to get there, but someone else might have been
4: Dumars just wasn't there yet and no one could have gotten him there and his desperation ramped up massively after the 4th team turned him down?

Feel free to change the verbage on these categories or add others if you want. I am not trying to be tricky with word play but trying to lay out a non biased description of the possibilities.

Maybe unfairly, I read yours and Reds comments as suggesting these things have similar probability that we just couldn't do this vs didn't want to vs didn't negotiate hard.

I agree they are all plausible but based on actual outcomes, comments by both front offices, our front offices previous discussions on team building, our front offices previous actions lining up with their statements, etc, I do not find them to be close to similar possibilities.

[Infinity2152]

There look to be a LOT of bad teams in the league next year. Pelicans will not be alone near the bottom. Half the entire league looks bad right now with injuries and rosters: Bucks, Celtics, Wizards, Jazz, Raptors, Blazers, Kings, Mavs could be bad (no Kyrie/Luka), Warriors (any injury to Steph or Jimmy), Hornets, maybe the Lakers relying on 41 yr old Lebron. This is before the season even starts and injuries pile up.

Pelicans and/or Bucks could pretty easily be mid teams next year.

[burlydee]

One point I haven't heard made, and Russillo alluded to it in the Simmons podcast, is that the Bulls may have promised Essengue.

Rusillo basically said, in a monilogue about Queen, that for Essengue to ditch his team in Germany and "buy a suit" he had to know he was going to be picked relatively high. Essengue was measured late in the process. He played late into the year and didn't meet with many teams. What if the Bulls turned it down because they (1) liked Essengue and (2) basically told him to half ass his draft process and they'd take him.

There is video going around of Rich Paul telling the Suns owner he'd make sure Maluach falls to him. I wonder if this happens more than we think. Would explain why Bulls would not be interested in NO trade.

AK has deep relationships in Europe. Would not be surprised if he locked in on him from beginning.

[Michael Jackson]

I still don't understand the extreme skepticism here:

1.) Eversely said they spoke to a team(s) about trading down.

2.) Dumars said they contacted every team after 9 until they had a deal.

3.) We have a half decade's worth of evidence that AKME don't particularly value draft capital.

Who is being skeptical of what? The only skepticism - better described as certainty, which is the problem - is coming from your side of the argument. No one disputes they discussed a trade. Its been explicitly confirmed by Dumars, and impliedly confirmed by Eversley.

FWIW, I have backed off certainty, and instead put this as having a probability low enough that I am willing to weigh this as an overwhelmingly possible trade that we did not have interest in.

What would you weigh these options at in your head:
1: we were not interested and had this offer
2: we were not interested enough to push a negotiation to get this offer
3: we were interested and would have done this but weren't good enough at negotiating to get there, but someone else might have been
4: Dumars just wasn't there yet and no one could have gotten him there and his desperation ramped up massively after the 4th team turned him down?

Feel free to change the verbage on these categories or add others if you want. I am not trying to be tricky with word play but trying to lay out a non biased description of the possibilities.

Maybe unfairly, I read yours and Reds comments as suggesting these things have similar probability that we just couldn't do this vs didn't want to vs didn't negotiate hard.

I agree they are all plausible but based on actual outcomes, comments by both front offices, our front offices previous discussions on team building, our front offices previous actions lining up with their statements, etc, I do not find them to be close to similar possibilities.

Probability to me is

2
1
3
4

#4 is a real wildcard as Dumars might have gotten desperate and panicked but you think he would have tried the higher slots with a deal like that before committing to 13.

[dougthonus]

One point I haven't heard made, and Russillo alluded to it in the Simmons podcast, is that the Bulls may have promised Essengue.

Rusillo basically said, in a monilogue about Queen, that for Essengue to ditch his team in Germany and "buy a suit" he had to know he was going to be picked relatively high. Essengue was measured late in the process. He played late into the year and didn't meet with many teams. What if the Bulls turned it down because they (1) liked Essengue and (2) basically told him to half ass his draft process and they'd take him.

There is video going around of Rich Paul telling the Suns owner he'd make sure Maluach falls to him. I wonder if this happens more than we think. Would explain why Bulls would not be interested in NO trade.

AK has deep relationships in Europe. Would not be surprised if he locked in on him from beginning.

Given Essengue was mocked generally above the Bulls it doesn't seem likely that he would need a promise to ditch his team in Germany. Given he would make $1M more by being drafted even one slot higher, I find it hard to believe he would sabotage his draft process to make less money.

That said, same is true of Maluach whom also has no reason to want to go to the Suns vs being drafted earlier and making more money, so who knows. I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if under some circumstances there is some under the money table being offered to draft prospects in some way that would make up for such a thing.

I'd also guess that the Bulls strike me as exceedingly unlikely to participate in under the money negotiations as they're cheap as hell, but maybe that's what we used that extra 2nd round pick cash for

FWIW, the idea that we locked in on him early and made him a promise isn't crazy from a "would we do this" perspective. I could totally see us doing that which would also be really stupid on our part.

[Michael Jackson]

One point I haven't heard made, and Russillo alluded to it in the Simmons podcast, is that the Bulls may have promised Essengue.

Rusillo basically said, in a monilogue about Queen, that for Essengue to ditch his team in Germany and "buy a suit" he had to know he was going to be picked relatively high. Essengue was measured late in the process. He played late into the year and didn't meet with many teams. What if the Bulls turned it down because they (1) liked Essengue and (2) basically told him to half ass his draft process and they'd take him.

There is video going around of Rich Paul telling the Suns owner he'd make sure Maluach falls to him. I wonder if this happens more than we think. Would explain why Bulls would not be interested in NO trade.

AK has deep relationships in Europe. Would not be surprised if he locked in on him from beginning.

Given Essengue was mocked generally above the Bulls it doesn't seem likely that he would need a promise to ditch his team in Germany. Given he would make $1M more by being drafted even one slot higher, I find it hard to believe he would sabotage his draft process to make less money.

That said, same is true of Maluach whom also has no reason to want to go to the Suns vs being drafted earlier and making more money, so who knows. I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if under some circumstances there is some under the money table being offered to draft prospects in some way that would make up for such a thing.

I'd also guess that the Bulls strike me as exceedingly unlikely to participate in under the money negotiations as they're cheap as hell, but maybe that's what we used that extra 2nd round pick cash for

FWIW, the idea that we locked in on him early and made him a promise isn't crazy from a "would we do this" perspective. I could totally see us doing that which would also be really stupid on our part.

Krause promised Mihm that we would draft him, and we did! We’ll only to trade him. Ah I miss Krause aggressiveness. Granted it oft turned out poorly it was still a plan. Foolish in optics but trying to get t,ac, hill and Duncan was forward thinking. The twin towers reach failed so bad but at least a good thought. Krause would have wheeled and dealed so much. It would have been much like Ainge. Not saying better but more decisive.

[HomoSapien]

This account refutes the notion that the Hawks were savvy enough to ask for an unprotected pick:

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=xOB22xGd85UcfRRu6zUm4w

[jnrjr79]

I doubt Dumars “offered” it but it was doable if negotiated clearly. We did not try to negotiate it or were just so in love with Noa. Seems like AKME don’t value the “asset” value of picks, which is no doubt inflated, but a real thing so I am sure they never asked.

Again, we don't know any of this. We do know 3 other teams turned down the Pelicans offers. Are they also bad at negotiating? Hell, Portland took a different trade instead to move out of 11 with a future first that isn't nearly as valuable.

I'm not trying to shoot AK bail here. There's just a lot of key missing information to conclude we didn't negotiate something we should've got. It's very plausible that New Orleans got desperate, and Atlanta was in the right place at the right time to capitalize. Especially if they felt Queen was more likely to be BPA going forward.

We can't know 100% for sure, but it is about 100x more logical to assume we could have done this than to assume we can't.

A fun question is this: did AK get this offer and turn it down, or did he not get this precise offer b/c he didn’t negotiate well enough to get it?

[jnrjr79]

i don't think it's outlandish at all to imagine a guy getting more desperate and increasing his trade offer after his initial attempts to move up were unsuccessful.

It’s common. One party who badly wants something will offer more and more the closer they come to not being able to get the thing they want.

I see it in negotiations in almost every lawsuit I settle. It’s why - stupidly - you hear so many stories (which are true) about lawsuits settling “on the courthouse stairs” (I.e., literally minutes before a trial is to begin despite years of attempts to settle prior).

It’s the “oh crap, this might be my last chance” moment.
It’s an extremely common dynamic.

Again, I’m not saying that happened here. But it’s strongly plausible based both on the specific evidence Dumars himself gave us and with what often happens in negotiations in the real world.

Relatedly, I find the first 3/4 of the time you spend at mediation to be a waste of time fairly often, because the real moves only come at the end of the day. “I have a hard stop at 6:00 to catch a flight” tends to have a pretty significant effect on swings in positions.

[Dan Z]

There look to be a LOT of bad teams in the league next year. Pelicans will not be alone near the bottom. Half the entire league looks bad right now with injuries and rosters: Bucks, Celtics, Wizards, Jazz, Raptors, Blazers, Kings, Mavs could be bad (no Kyrie/Luka), Warriors (any injury to Steph or Jimmy), Hornets, maybe the Lakers relying on 41 yr old Lebron. This is before the season even starts and injuries pile up.

Pelicans and/or Bucks could pretty easily be mid teams next year.

I take my chances on the #23 and the unprotected New Orleans pick over the #12 (Noa Essengue).

At best you get a top pick in 2026 and potentially a franchise player. At worse it's a mid round (or so) pick and you get another prospect to add to the team.

New Orleans is relying on two rookies (Fears/Queen) and hoping that Zion stays healthy.

[burlydee]

One point I haven't heard made, and Russillo alluded to it in the Simmons podcast, is that the Bulls may have promised Essengue.

Rusillo basically said, in a monilogue about Queen, that for Essengue to ditch his team in Germany and "buy a suit" he had to know he was going to be picked relatively high. Essengue was measured late in the process. He played late into the year and didn't meet with many teams. What if the Bulls turned it down because they (1) liked Essengue and (2) basically told him to half ass his draft process and they'd take him.

There is video going around of Rich Paul telling the Suns owner he'd make sure Maluach falls to him. I wonder if this happens more than we think. Would explain why Bulls would not be interested in NO trade.

AK has deep relationships in Europe. Would not be surprised if he locked in on him from beginning.

Given Essengue was mocked generally above the Bulls it doesn't seem likely that he would need a promise to ditch his team in Germany. Given he would make $1M more by being drafted even one slot higher, I find it hard to believe he would sabotage his draft process to make less money.

That said, same is true of Maluach whom also has no reason to want to go to the Suns vs being drafted earlier and making more money, so who knows. I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if under some circumstances there is some under the money table being offered to draft prospects in some way that would make up for such a thing.

I'd also guess that the Bulls strike me as exceedingly unlikely to participate in under the money negotiations as they're cheap as hell, but maybe that's what we used that extra 2nd round pick cash for

FWIW, the idea that we locked in on him early and made him a promise isn't crazy from a "would we do this" perspective. I could totally see us doing that which would also be really stupid on our part.

Where Essengue was mocked is completely irrelevant.

We already know 2 guys in this draft class, Bailey and Maluach, discouraged teams from drafting them so they can go to a team with a lower pick. Teams do it all the time, that's what a promise is.

AK was dinged for breaking the rules in trying to get Ball. Here it's far more likely he could break the rules and get away with it bc no one involved is under the jurisdiction of the NBA. His agent has one other NBA client

https://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent_clients/Yann-Balikouzou/643

I'm more convinced than ever this is the Bulls locking in on Essengue and either making a promise or just believing he's the guy. I think they turned the deal down. I know ppl hate it but if Essengue is an all star it will never ever br mentioned again.

[Michael Jackson]

One point I haven't heard made, and Russillo alluded to it in the Simmons podcast, is that the Bulls may have promised Essengue.

Rusillo basically said, in a monilogue about Queen, that for Essengue to ditch his team in Germany and "buy a suit" he had to know he was going to be picked relatively high. Essengue was measured late in the process. He played late into the year and didn't meet with many teams. What if the Bulls turned it down because they (1) liked Essengue and (2) basically told him to half ass his draft process and they'd take him.

There is video going around of Rich Paul telling the Suns owner he'd make sure Maluach falls to him. I wonder if this happens more than we think. Would explain why Bulls would not be interested in NO trade.

AK has deep relationships in Europe. Would not be surprised if he locked in on him from beginning.

Given Essengue was mocked generally above the Bulls it doesn't seem likely that he would need a promise to ditch his team in Germany. Given he would make $1M more by being drafted even one slot higher, I find it hard to believe he would sabotage his draft process to make less money.

That said, same is true of Maluach whom also has no reason to want to go to the Suns vs being drafted earlier and making more money, so who knows. I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if under some circumstances there is some under the money table being offered to draft prospects in some way that would make up for such a thing.

I'd also guess that the Bulls strike me as exceedingly unlikely to participate in under the money negotiations as they're cheap as hell, but maybe that's what we used that extra 2nd round pick cash for

FWIW, the idea that we locked in on him early and made him a promise isn't crazy from a "would we do this" perspective. I could totally see us doing that which would also be really stupid on our part.

Where Essengue was mocked is completely irrelevant.

We already know 2 guys in this draft class, Bailey and Maluach, discouraged teams from drafting them so they can go to a team with a lower pick. Teams do it all the time, that's what a promise is.

AK was dinged for breaking the rules in trying to get Ball. Here it's far more likely he could break the rules and get away with it bc no one involved is under the jurisdiction of the NBA. His agent has one other NBA client

https://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent_clients/Yann-Balikouzou/643

I'm more convinced than ever this is the Bulls locking in on Essengue and either making a promise or just believing he's the guy. I think they turned the deal down. I know ppl hate it but if Essengue is an all star it will never ever br mentioned again.

True if he pans out it won’t be an issue but it will be at least a couple years until that can be determined so we assuredly will hear it again.

[Dez]

This account refutes the notion that the Hawks were savvy enough to ask for an unprotected pick:

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=xOB22xGd85UcfRRu6zUm4w

To me that reads that Dumars was talking out of his ass when saying he called teams and Atlanta was his first call.

[HomoSapien]

This account refutes the notion that the Hawks were savvy enough to ask for an unprotected pick:

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=xOB22xGd85UcfRRu6zUm4w

To me that reads that Dumars was talking out of his ass when saying he called teams and Atlanta was his first call.

Where are you reading that Atlanta was the first call?

[Dez]

This account refutes the notion that the Hawks were savvy enough to ask for an unprotected pick:

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=xOB22xGd85UcfRRu6zUm4w

To me that reads that Dumars was talking out of his ass when saying he called teams and Atlanta was his first call.

Where are you reading that Atlanta was the first call?

Sorry I didn't word that well, I mean it sounded like he was trying downplay his stupidity when he said he talked to multiple teams.

It sounds to me like Atlanta was the first team he called and they accepted Dumars stupidity with disbelief.

[dice]

Again, we don't know any of this. We do know 3 other teams turned down the Pelicans offers. Are they also bad at negotiating? Hell, Portland took a different trade instead to move out of 11 with a future first that isn't nearly as valuable.

I'm not trying to shoot AK bail here. There's just a lot of key missing information to conclude we didn't negotiate something we should've got. It's very plausible that New Orleans got desperate, and Atlanta was in the right place at the right time to capitalize. Especially if they felt Queen was more likely to be BPA going forward.

We can't know 100% for sure, but it is about 100x more logical to assume we could have done this than to assume we can't.

A fun question is this: did AK get this offer and turn it down, or did he not get this precise offer b/c he didn’t negotiate well enough to get it?

all that's really relevant is that artie didn't get what the team w/ the inferior pick got. and as i've already stated, that is only justifiable if the bulls took one of 2 players the pels were interested in and atlanta was thus the only team that got a call

if dumars refused the same offer to the bulls, an immediate about-face and panic deal at #13 seems highly unlikely. and not only from the dumars side. because at that stage, if i'm ARTIE i'm leaking to the media that dumars declined to make me the same offer and panicked. as a face-saving move. because i want people to know that i'm not dumb enough to turn that down

[dougthonus]

To me that reads that Dumars was talking out of his ass when saying he called teams and Atlanta was his first call.

Where are you reading that Atlanta was the first call?

Sorry I didn't word that well, I mean it sounded like he was trying downplay his stupidity when he said he talked to multiple teams.

It sounds to me like Atlanta was the first team he called and they accepted Dumars stupidity with disbelief.

What about this makes you think they didn't call multiple teams, there is literally nothing in here that would imply that. It certainly implies they were desperate and there was no negotiation here.

Also, the Bulls confirmed they talked with another team about a trade for #12 in their press conference. It theoretically could have been someone other than the Pelicans, but given the Pelicans said they called us, we said we talked to someone, and the Pelicans actually traded for #13, that seems pretty unlikely that they didn't talk to us.

[Mr. Tibbs]

One point I haven't heard made, and Russillo alluded to it in the Simmons podcast, is that the Bulls may have promised Essengue.

Rusillo basically said, in a monilogue about Queen, that for Essengue to ditch his team in Germany and "buy a suit" he had to know he was going to be picked relatively high. Essengue was measured late in the process. He played late into the year and didn't meet with many teams. What if the Bulls turned it down because they (1) liked Essengue and (2) basically told him to half ass his draft process and they'd take him.

There is video going around of Rich Paul telling the Suns owner he'd make sure Maluach falls to him. I wonder if this happens more than we think. Would explain why Bulls would not be interested in NO trade.

AK has deep relationships in Europe. Would not be surprised if he locked in on him from beginning.

Given Essengue was mocked generally above the Bulls it doesn't seem likely that he would need a promise to ditch his team in Germany. Given he would make $1M more by being drafted even one slot higher, I find it hard to believe he would sabotage his draft process to make less money.

That said, same is true of Maluach whom also has no reason to want to go to the Suns vs being drafted earlier and making more money, so who knows. I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if under some circumstances there is some under the money table being offered to draft prospects in some way that would make up for such a thing.

I'd also guess that the Bulls strike me as exceedingly unlikely to participate in under the money negotiations as they're cheap as hell, but maybe that's what we used that extra 2nd round pick cash for

FWIW, the idea that we locked in on him early and made him a promise isn't crazy from a "would we do this" perspective. I could totally see us doing that which would also be really stupid on our part.

Krause promised Mihm that we would draft him, and we did! We’ll only to trade him. Ah I miss Krause aggressiveness. Granted it oft turned out poorly it was still a plan. Foolish in optics but trying to get t,ac, hill and Duncan was forward thinking. The twin towers reach failed so bad but at least a good thought. Krause would have wheeled and dealed so much. It would have been much like Ainge. Not saying better but more decisive.

Imo, Krause>>>Garpax>>>>>>>AKME. Krause may have had the people skills of a feral cat, but he GM'd how I play fantasy. Aggressive, dopamine chasing, and fun as hell.

[Jcool0]

Given Essengue was mocked generally above the Bulls it doesn't seem likely that he would need a promise to ditch his team in Germany. Given he would make $1M more by being drafted even one slot higher, I find it hard to believe he would sabotage his draft process to make less money.

That said, same is true of Maluach whom also has no reason to want to go to the Suns vs being drafted earlier and making more money, so who knows. I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if under some circumstances there is some under the money table being offered to draft prospects in some way that would make up for such a thing.

I'd also guess that the Bulls strike me as exceedingly unlikely to participate in under the money negotiations as they're cheap as hell, but maybe that's what we used that extra 2nd round pick cash for

FWIW, the idea that we locked in on him early and made him a promise isn't crazy from a "would we do this" perspective. I could totally see us doing that which would also be really stupid on our part.

Krause promised Mihm that we would draft him, and we did! We’ll only to trade him. Ah I miss Krause aggressiveness. Granted it oft turned out poorly it was still a plan. Foolish in optics but trying to get t,ac, hill and Duncan was forward thinking. The twin towers reach failed so bad but at least a good thought. Krause would have wheeled and dealed so much. It would have been much like Ainge. Not saying better but more decisive.

Imo, Krause>>>Garpax>>>>>>>AKME. Krause may have had the people skills of a feral cat, but he GM'd how I play fantasy. Aggressive, dopamine chasing, and fun as hell.

When was Krause any of those things? He was never that creative during the dynasty years and most everything he did from the 90s on failed.