2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[tsherkin]

Well, the Nuggets were dead last in 3-point rate last year. There might be an argument that Jokic's style of play is sub-optimal for maxing out 3PAr...but there was also the matter that last year Westbrook was the #3 3PA among Jokic's teammates, which is not something any team should want.

Counterpoint: AG played 51 games, Murray played 67, but they still had 7 games taking 2.8+ 3PA/g and two taking 5.9 or more. Plus Jokic set his own career-high at 4.7... and himself only played 70 games. Hell, even Strawther only played 65 games, and Pickett 49.

So yeah, they had guys. And they were still the 4th-best O in the league. They didn't lack for shooting. They approached the game with a different strategy. What they lacked was someone who could get it done when Jokic sat or struggled, because all they really HAD were shooters.

[Fadeaway_J]

Thoughts on other teams:

Lakers - this feels like a complete disaster. To me, while making the Luka trade was a clear cut win in the abstract, it had to come with an understanding that the team would not be a contender until they built the right core around Luka.

However, the extra bit of goodness is that they had already acquired Dorian Finney-Smith who was already known to be a perfect fit with Luka. Because the Lakers had DFS, it felt like they were already a good chunk of the way there, and just needed to add the right sort of bigs.

But now the Lakers have lost DFS apparently specifically because GM Pelinka pulled some stuff that DFS' camp saw as sabotaging his contract offers, and so they decided to not even consider coming back to the Lakers. WTF? How do you screw things up that badly? Pelinka's been criticized for a lot in his Laker tenure, but while I'm not going to say he was perfect, the reality is I never saw him as a guy who literally chased away players the team needed before.

Obviously all this information is 3rd hand and maybe contradictory information will eventually emerged...but the Lakers needed DFS and sure seems like they could have got him.

The fact that the Lakers still haven't gotten a big that strikes me as a Luka-big (Ayton is low motor, meh attitude, reluctance to use physicality) makes it all the worse, and of course LeBron opting-in makes it much harder to get any other of the needs.

Hawks - aside from the issue of Porzingis being unreliable physically and my general reluctance to continue building around Trae, the Hawks seem like they're making some good decisions in support of their original (questionable) decision.

From the minute the Luka trade went down, I saw it as Pelinka getting yet another couple of years of cover that he doesn't deserve. The guy is running the GM version of a Ponzi scheme.

[Doctor MJ]

Well, the Nuggets were dead last in 3-point rate last year. There might be an argument that Jokic's style of play is sub-optimal for maxing out 3PAr...but there was also the matter that last year Westbrook was the #3 3PA among Jokic's teammates, which is not something any team should want.

Counterpoint: AG played 51 games, Murray played 67, but they still had 7 games taking 2.8+ 3PA/g and two taking 5.9 or more. Plus Jokic set his own career-high at 4.7... and himself only played 70 games. Hell, even Strawther only played 65 games, and Pickett 49.

So yeah, they had guys. And they were still the 4th-best O in the league. They didn't lack for shooting. They approached the game with a different strategy. What they lacked was someone who could get it done when Jokic sat or struggled, because all they really HAD were shooters.

Well but hold on here: Jokic doubling his 3PA from what he did in the championship run while saying that the team lacked shooters, seems pretty meaningful to me when addressing the question of "Did the Nuggets supply Jokic with enough shooting around him?". Much like it hardly makes sense to credit the Warriors for adding shooting around Steph simply because Steph is making 3's.

Of course there's a broader phenomenon going on here:

The Nuggets aren't shooting less 3's than they were in '22-23 in the absolute, but the NBA average of 3PA has gone up about 10% in the last two years and relative to that, the Nuggets have stagnated despite Jokic taking considerably more 3's.

This then to say that while it's unfair to talk as if the Nuggets got rid of all of their shooters, in a time where basically the entire NBA continues to focus on 3's more and more, that's not what the Nugget FO prioritized and so they feel (further) behind league norms, going from 18th in 3's made when they won the title to 28th.

Another key point, which might be able to get used against Jokic, is that the team shot more 3's when Jokic was on the bench. The fact that Gordon can shoot 3's is great, but it's not like if you lose Gordon you'd lose all ability to have 3-point shooters around Jokic.

This then to say while thing there's a question of whether Jokic should change what he's doing to have the team shoot more 3's, I don't think we can name specific teammates and say "Oh, he's got 3-point shooters plenty" because norms have been continuing to change. Yeah, compared to teams of the past Jokic has great shooting around him...but relative to norms of 2025, the Nuggets just aren't shooting enough 3's to avoid being an outlier on the low end.

And while it's always possible that "zagging" will prove the right approach when the NBA inevitably overshoots and the league average ends up being higher than optimal, I would say that Jokic saying the team lacked shooting and proceeding to try to take more shots from 3 indicates that if that's the franchise strategy, it doesn't seem like they clued Jokic in to it.

[tsherkin]

Well but hold on here: Jokic doubling his 3PA from what he did in the championship run while saying that the team lacked shooters, seems pretty meaningful to me when addressing the question of "Did the Nuggets supply Jokic with enough shooting around him?". Much like it hardly makes sense to credit the Warriors for adding shooting around Steph simply because Steph is making 3's.

So first, before I get into it, fun reply. Thanks!


All right, let's dive in.

Right off the bat, we're presupposing a need for 3pt shooting. The Nuggets had plenty of it. Their raw rate of 3pt shooting was obviously quite low, but they were literally almost nothing BUT shooters around Jokic, so it's a little deceiving. They were definitely bottom of the barrel in raw volume, but it didn't stop them from being a good offense. What stopped them in the playoffs is when MPJ's injury killed his efficacy, Westbrook lost his ability to contribute effectively, and Jokic had any kind of struggle at all. And certainly when Murray had a bad game.

Like, you can't really look at that team and say the absence of 3pt shooting was the problem. You can argue that they might have extracted better regular-season offensive efficiency per 100 possessions if they shot it more, but that wasn't an issue for them. You can argue that Murray, Jokic, Braun, Westbrook and MPJ drying up from 3 when they did shoot in the OKC series was a problem...

But the rate at which they shot it was not actually any sort of impediment to their success on offense.

And while it's always possible that "zagging" will prove the right approach when the NBA inevitably overshoots and the league average ends up being higher than optimal, I would say that Jokic saying the team lacked shooting and proceeding to try to take more shots from 3 indicates that if that's the franchise strategy, it doesn't seem like they clued Jokic in to it.

Personally, I think it was more emblematic of Jokic trying to shoot more. He set a career-high in raw FGA/g, mostly by increasing his 3pt shooting volume. He was within 0.1 of his 2PA/g set in 2024 and 2021.

Beyond that, he just needed guys to come through around him in the Thunder series. They lacked HARD for a secondary creator, especially a dribble penetrator. They also had untimely drop-offs from the rest of the team around him. And everyone just sucked in Game 7 against OKC. They were done after the second quarter, generally, because not only could they not score but OKC dropped a bomb all over them that quarter. BECAUSE they were mostly just Jokic and shooters, and jump shots dry up, and they had no other way to get buckets, no other higher-order scoring talent.

[GSP]

Houston zagging while everyones zigging. Going all in on size and offensive rebounding. They lapped the league in offensive rebounding last season when Adams played. Sengun,Adams,Capela is one of the biggest center rotations i can remember. Now theyve replaced Brooks w/ a bigger, better rebounder in Dorian and a better defender too. No more little Jalen now they have 6'11 Kd......

The Rockets are probably the most interesting team going into next season. I wouldn't consider them title favorites, but they are very scary.

What I'm going to be looking in particular:

1. How does KD take to Udoka's defense? In Brooklyn, KD & Kyrie basically vetoed attempts to implement a modern defensive scheme, and now KD is half a decade older without any evidence of improved defensive buy-in.

On the other hand, KD knows Udoka and clearly wanted to go play for him. It's possible that KD will come in with a professional attitude we haven't seen since he came to the Warriors in 2016 (and which lasted for one season).

On the 3rd hand, even KD buying in might not be enough to prevent the defense taking a major dip. He's simply not capable of the kind of sustained defensive effort that the average member of the young core gave them last year, so unless Udoka has some specific new ideas for KD on defense, it will make the D more vulnerable.

2. What does the offensive scheme look like now? Certainly that ORtg is gong to jump as a result of them managing to trade their worst rotation player (Green), who was also their primary scorer, for KD. But while I'm sure Udoka has a lot of expert thoughts about the defense, I kinda feel like the offense is mostly going to be about VanVleet, Sengun, Amen & KD figuring it out together, and while I'm sure it will be good relative to league average, we might see guys lost in the shuffle.

If VanVleet ends up being lost in the shuffle, that's not anything to fear. He's older and arguably has primacy above his ideal role previously.

If Sengun ends up being lost in the shuffle, they'll need to trade him ASAP. Personally I might want the offense to continue to grow around Sengun, but if they don't make him the focal point, there's a good chance he ends up slotting in as a role player with limited offensive impact playing with lineups that aren't as suited to letting him function optimally on offense.

If Amen ends up being lost in the shuffle, this might cap his growth at a time when it seems like his potential is limitless. That might be for the best depending on what his offensive ceiling as a decision maker is, but if you do see him as potentially your next franchise player, it'd be a shame to stymy his growth in order to try to win a chip by adding an old mercenary to a young core.

I mostly agree but Im not sure why Houstons defense would take a major dip swapping basically Jalen Green whos a bad defender and by far their worst and most targeted w/ Kd. Brooks is gone but i think most consider Dorian the bigger and better defender.

Suns defense was horrific last season one of the worst but Kd was far from the biggest reason there. Book,Beal,Tyus,Grayson was prolly the worst guard rotation in the league defensively they couldnt stop a nosebleed, couldnt contain penetration against anyone and none of them are big or strong athletes. Undersized guards and not athletic just finesse guards who are all bad defenders. They got cooked on the perimeter every game. Aside from them Richards,Plumlee, Oso was prolly the worst center rotation in the Nba. Richards was the 3rd string in **** Charlotte and their best option Plumlee was getting cooked all season by opposing centers that historic Jokic 30,20,20 game never been done before was against Plumlee

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-without-kevin-durant
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-with-kevin-durant

They had a 125.6 defensive rating when Kd was out which is like one of the absolute worst ever. Utah was the worst defense last season at 120.4......118.5 when Kd played is still a bad defense but obviously he doesnt look like their problem and it correlates w/ their record w/ Kd (33-29) Vs w/o (3-17). His individual defensive numbers look good too it looks like Kd, Royce and Dunn were the only Suns playing any defense last season. I dont see why Houstons defense would take a dip w/ Jalen a much worse defender gone and having replaced Brooks w/ Dorian. Theyre gonna be able to play more bigger lineups w/ Kd too

[Doctor MJ]

Well but hold on here: Jokic doubling his 3PA from what he did in the championship run while saying that the team lacked shooters, seems pretty meaningful to me when addressing the question of "Did the Nuggets supply Jokic with enough shooting around him?". Much like it hardly makes sense to credit the Warriors for adding shooting around Steph simply because Steph is making 3's.

So first, before I get into it, fun reply. Thanks!


All right, let's dive in.

Right off the bat, we're presupposing a need for 3pt shooting. The Nuggets had plenty of it. Their raw rate of 3pt shooting was obviously quite low, but they were literally almost nothing BUT shooters around Jokic, so it's a little deceiving. They were definitely bottom of the barrel in raw volume, but it didn't stop them from being a good offense. What stopped them in the playoffs is when MPJ's injury killed his efficacy, Westbrook lost his ability to contribute effectively, and Jokic had any kind of struggle at all. And certainly when Murray had a bad game.

Like, you can't really look at that team and say the absence of 3pt shooting was the problem. You can argue that they might have extracted better regular-season offensive efficiency per 100 possessions if they shot it more, but that wasn't an issue for them. You can argue that Murray, Jokic, Braun, Westbrook and MPJ drying up from 3 when they did shoot in the OKC series was a problem...

But the rate at which they shot it was not actually any sort of impediment to their success on offense.

And while it's always possible that "zagging" will prove the right approach when the NBA inevitably overshoots and the league average ends up being higher than optimal, I would say that Jokic saying the team lacked shooting and proceeding to try to take more shots from 3 indicates that if that's the franchise strategy, it doesn't seem like they clued Jokic in to it.

Personally, I think it was more emblematic of Jokic trying to shoot more. He set a career-high in raw FGA/g, mostly by increasing his 3pt shooting volume. He was within 0.1 of his 2PA/g set in 2024 and 2021.

Beyond that, he just needed guys to come through around him in the Thunder series. They lacked HARD for a secondary creator, especially a dribble penetrator. They also had untimely drop-offs from the rest of the team around him. And everyone just sucked in Game 7 against OKC. They were done after the second quarter, generally, because not only could they not score but OKC dropped a bomb all over them that quarter. BECAUSE they were mostly just Jokic and shooters, and jump shots dry up, and they had no other way to get buckets, no other higher-order scoring talent.

Good points and to be clear I didn't mean to imply that I thought lack of 3-point shooting was THE problem for the Nuggets, only that it was a thing that was noted.

Now, when you're saying "They had 3-point shooters, they just shot badly against OKC.", that statement makes sense, but the thing is:

The Nuggets made more 3's per game in the Thunder series than they did in the regular season. They shot worse of course, but they took so many more 3's against OKC than normal, they still made more 3's.

So basically I'd say what happened is that the Thunder defense kept the Nuggets from getting the shot diet they prefer, and so essentially "forced" the Nuggets to take 3's at volume beyond what they normally do. Reasonable to also think the Nuggets were feeling more pressure than typical on their average shot which would correctly predict the lower accuracy, but I do think it's worth noting they still weren't being asked to take an insane amount of 3's relative to NBA norms. It's very possible over the course of a season to take way more 3's than that higher Nugget rate, and shoot it well.

But the Nuggets weren't able to do it in that series. Maybe luck, maybe health, etc, but when the Nuggets needed to scale up their 3 volume, it didn't go great.

[Doctor MJ]

Houston zagging while everyones zigging. Going all in on size and offensive rebounding. They lapped the league in offensive rebounding last season when Adams played. Sengun,Adams,Capela is one of the biggest center rotations i can remember. Now theyve replaced Brooks w/ a bigger, better rebounder in Dorian and a better defender too. No more little Jalen now they have 6'11 Kd......

The Rockets are probably the most interesting team going into next season. I wouldn't consider them title favorites, but they are very scary.

What I'm going to be looking in particular:

1. How does KD take to Udoka's defense? In Brooklyn, KD & Kyrie basically vetoed attempts to implement a modern defensive scheme, and now KD is half a decade older without any evidence of improved defensive buy-in.

On the other hand, KD knows Udoka and clearly wanted to go play for him. It's possible that KD will come in with a professional attitude we haven't seen since he came to the Warriors in 2016 (and which lasted for one season).

On the 3rd hand, even KD buying in might not be enough to prevent the defense taking a major dip. He's simply not capable of the kind of sustained defensive effort that the average member of the young core gave them last year, so unless Udoka has some specific new ideas for KD on defense, it will make the D more vulnerable.

2. What does the offensive scheme look like now? Certainly that ORtg is gong to jump as a result of them managing to trade their worst rotation player (Green), who was also their primary scorer, for KD. But while I'm sure Udoka has a lot of expert thoughts about the defense, I kinda feel like the offense is mostly going to be about VanVleet, Sengun, Amen & KD figuring it out together, and while I'm sure it will be good relative to league average, we might see guys lost in the shuffle.

If VanVleet ends up being lost in the shuffle, that's not anything to fear. He's older and arguably has primacy above his ideal role previously.

If Sengun ends up being lost in the shuffle, they'll need to trade him ASAP. Personally I might want the offense to continue to grow around Sengun, but if they don't make him the focal point, there's a good chance he ends up slotting in as a role player with limited offensive impact playing with lineups that aren't as suited to letting him function optimally on offense.

If Amen ends up being lost in the shuffle, this might cap his growth at a time when it seems like his potential is limitless. That might be for the best depending on what his offensive ceiling as a decision maker is, but if you do see him as potentially your next franchise player, it'd be a shame to stymy his growth in order to try to win a chip by adding an old mercenary to a young core.

I mostly agree but Im not sure why Houstons defense would take a major dip swapping basically Jalen Green whos a bad defender and by far their worst and most targeted w/ Kd. Brooks is gone but i think most consider Dorian the bigger and better defender.

Suns defense was horrific last season one of the worst but Kd was far from the biggest reason there. Book,Beal,Tyus,Grayson was prolly the worst guard rotation in the league defensively they couldnt stop a nosebleed, couldnt contain penetration against anyone and none of them are big or strong athletes. Undersized guards and not athletic just finesse guards who are all bad defenders. They got cooked on the perimeter every game. Aside from them Richards,Plumlee, Oso was prolly the worst center rotation in the Nba. Richards was the 3rd string in **** Charlotte and their best option Plumlee was getting cooked all season by opposing centers that historic Jokic 30,20,20 game never been done before was against Plumlee

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-without-kevin-durant
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-with-kevin-durant

They had a 125.6 defensive rating when Kd was out which is like one of the absolute worst ever. Utah was the worst defense last season at 120.4......118.5 when Kd played is still a bad defense but obviously he doesnt look like their problem and it correlates w/ their record w/ Kd (33-29) Vs w/o (3-17). His individual defensive numbers look good too it looks like Kd, Royce and Dunn were the only Suns playing any defense last season. I dont see why Houstons defense would take a dip w/ Jalen a much worse defender gone and having replaced Brooks w/ Dorian. Theyre gonna be able to play more bigger lineups w/ Kd too

Green was a 6'4" 22-year old with great athleticism even relative to most NBAers his age, who are on average way more agile than older players.
Durant will be a 6'11" (at least) 37-year old who doesn't move like he used to.

I'm under no illusions about Green's defense being good by NBA standard, but if the Rockets try to play Durant in Green's role on defense, it will be a considerably bigger problem than playing Green in the role.

You mention that Durant had some defensive value on the Suns last year, and I'd point to him being allowed to hang out more on the interior (and block shots) was key to that. Put him in space out past the perimeter at this point against a skilled handler and he'll look like a baby deer - and you'll be able to tire him out.

So I expect that the Rockets will be looking to play Durant on the interior defensively, and they'll figure out what they have to do with their other players (especially other bigs) in order to make that work as well as possible. It's possible Udoka will come up with something brilliant that works really well, but you can't just slot Durant in for who he was traded for.

[GSP]

The Rockets are probably the most interesting team going into next season. I wouldn't consider them title favorites, but they are very scary.

What I'm going to be looking in particular:

1. How does KD take to Udoka's defense? In Brooklyn, KD & Kyrie basically vetoed attempts to implement a modern defensive scheme, and now KD is half a decade older without any evidence of improved defensive buy-in.

On the other hand, KD knows Udoka and clearly wanted to go play for him. It's possible that KD will come in with a professional attitude we haven't seen since he came to the Warriors in 2016 (and which lasted for one season).

On the 3rd hand, even KD buying in might not be enough to prevent the defense taking a major dip. He's simply not capable of the kind of sustained defensive effort that the average member of the young core gave them last year, so unless Udoka has some specific new ideas for KD on defense, it will make the D more vulnerable.

2. What does the offensive scheme look like now? Certainly that ORtg is gong to jump as a result of them managing to trade their worst rotation player (Green), who was also their primary scorer, for KD. But while I'm sure Udoka has a lot of expert thoughts about the defense, I kinda feel like the offense is mostly going to be about VanVleet, Sengun, Amen & KD figuring it out together, and while I'm sure it will be good relative to league average, we might see guys lost in the shuffle.

If VanVleet ends up being lost in the shuffle, that's not anything to fear. He's older and arguably has primacy above his ideal role previously.

If Sengun ends up being lost in the shuffle, they'll need to trade him ASAP. Personally I might want the offense to continue to grow around Sengun, but if they don't make him the focal point, there's a good chance he ends up slotting in as a role player with limited offensive impact playing with lineups that aren't as suited to letting him function optimally on offense.

If Amen ends up being lost in the shuffle, this might cap his growth at a time when it seems like his potential is limitless. That might be for the best depending on what his offensive ceiling as a decision maker is, but if you do see him as potentially your next franchise player, it'd be a shame to stymy his growth in order to try to win a chip by adding an old mercenary to a young core.

I mostly agree but Im not sure why Houstons defense would take a major dip swapping basically Jalen Green whos a bad defender and by far their worst and most targeted w/ Kd. Brooks is gone but i think most consider Dorian the bigger and better defender.

Suns defense was horrific last season one of the worst but Kd was far from the biggest reason there. Book,Beal,Tyus,Grayson was prolly the worst guard rotation in the league defensively they couldnt stop a nosebleed, couldnt contain penetration against anyone and none of them are big or strong athletes. Undersized guards and not athletic just finesse guards who are all bad defenders. They got cooked on the perimeter every game. Aside from them Richards,Plumlee, Oso was prolly the worst center rotation in the Nba. Richards was the 3rd string in **** Charlotte and their best option Plumlee was getting cooked all season by opposing centers that historic Jokic 30,20,20 game never been done before was against Plumlee

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-without-kevin-durant
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-with-kevin-durant

They had a 125.6 defensive rating when Kd was out which is like one of the absolute worst ever. Utah was the worst defense last season at 120.4......118.5 when Kd played is still a bad defense but obviously he doesnt look like their problem and it correlates w/ their record w/ Kd (33-29) Vs w/o (3-17). His individual defensive numbers look good too it looks like Kd, Royce and Dunn were the only Suns playing any defense last season. I dont see why Houstons defense would take a dip w/ Jalen a much worse defender gone and having replaced Brooks w/ Dorian. Theyre gonna be able to play more bigger lineups w/ Kd too

Green was a 6'4" 22-year old with great athleticism even relative to most NBAers his age, who are on average way more agile than older players.
Durant will be a 6'11" (at least) 37-year old who doesn't move like he used to.

I'm under no illusions about Green's defense being good by NBA standard, but if the Rockets try to play Durant in Green's role on defense, it will be a considerably bigger problem than playing Green in the role.

You mention that Durant had some defensive value on the Suns last year, and I'd point to him being allowed to hang out more on the interior (and block shots) was key to that. Put him in space out past the perimeter at this point against a skilled handler and he'll look like a baby deer - and you'll be able to tire him out.

So I expect that the Rockets will be looking to play Durant on the interior defensively, and they'll figure out what they have to do with their other players (especially other bigs) in order to make that work as well as possible. It's possible Udoka will come up with something brilliant that works really well, but you can't just slot Durant in for who he was traded for.

Oh no Kd def isnt gonna be put on the perimeter he plays the 4 and roamer secondary rim protector role at this stage. Suns just had 0 rim protection at the 5 and now theyll have some.

Kd at the 4 is alot stronger defensively than Jalen in any defensive role

Theyre gonna have an abundance of perimeter defenders 1-3 w/ Fvv, Dfs, Amen, Tari and its no secret they were as great as they were last season when Jalen was on the bench and Amen+Tari could terrorize opposing offenses or when Amen was running point and they stopped pretending Jalen had the capability to handle the offense. Now w/ Kd theyll be able to play those 2 together alot more and stop trying to find minutes w/ Jalen since Kd would be at the 4/5 now. That 1st Nets season w/ Udoka as the defensive coach Kd only played mins at the 4 and even 5 and Im expecting the same this season

They have a ridiculous amount of lineup flexibility w/ Kd now thats gonna allow them to play alot more dominant defensive lineups so i dont see why their defense wont be better this season upgrading defensively from Brooks to Dorian and Jalen to Kd. Not that Kds gonna have the same defensive role Jalen had the lineups are gonna look different. They even can run what Okc has been doing where their "small ball" is still huge and athletic.

Okc dominated w/ Sga, Caruso, Cason, Jdubb, Chet lineup thats a "small ball" lineup but looking at the height, size, athleticism they have the pros of small ball w/ speed, 1-5 switching and spacing while not sacrificing anything on defense. Houston now has lineups like that w/ Amen, Tari, Dorian, Kd, Jabari that on paper should be a major problem for the league.

Watch on YouTube

Kd was one of the best iso defenders last season and it wasnt a small sample either and that was on a Suns team w/ prolly the worst defensive guard rotation in the league and no real help defense. Its a complete 180 w/ Houstons defensive roster. He was also one of the best rim protecting wings. He wouldnt be replacing Jalens role in the defense but even Brooks defensive role Kd was much more effective as a defender last season so it should be an upgrade any way you slice it specially w/ Dorian there now would not surprise me at all if theyre the 2nd best defense in 26

[lethalizer]

.

I believe you're correct on SGAs single season +/- lead being a huge outlier.

Having watched the Thunder for 82 games season, I think it makes sense that he has a huge lead.

Thunder have a deep team but Shai is what makes them tick, Thunder's go to lineups in building those huge leads in the regular season happened with the Shai+bench lineups all season.

When as a star player you can build leads with your bench players, your +/- goes all the way up, especially if said team has finished the season with a double digit MOV on average.

[tsherkin]

Now, when you're saying "They had 3-point shooters, they just shot badly against OKC.", that statement makes sense, but the thing is:

The Nuggets made more 3's per game in the Thunder series than they did in the regular season. They shot worse of course, but they took so many more 3's against OKC than normal, they still made more 3's.

So basically I'd say what happened is that the Thunder defense kept the Nuggets from getting the shot diet they prefer, and so essentially "forced" the Nuggets to take 3's at volume beyond what they normally do.

Yep, that's definitely part of it. This circles back to my remark about how limp they are as far as live-dribble threat. OKC's defensive pressure was considerable.

But the Nuggets weren't able to do it in that series. Maybe luck, maybe health, etc, but when the Nuggets needed to scale up their 3 volume, it didn't go great.

Worth remembering that MPJ was injured, and of course Jamal Murray is pretty tepid unless he's on a heater with his jumper and floater.

The Nuggets took about 8 more 3s per game in that series than in the RS.

Jokic was at +1 per game, Murray was at 7 (which is about 0.4 higher than his career-high RS mark, which he's hit twice). Gordon was at about 4.9; he was at 3.4 but he's taken 3.8, 4.4 and 5.9 3PA/g before. That said, this was his first elite 3pt shooting RS, and he fell off sharply from the corners in the playoffs. Braun was at 6.6, which was a good 3.8 more than his previous career-high. He was crushing it inside the arc but wasn't hitting his 3s. MPJ was injured, but still taking 5.1 per game... which was less than in the RS, so that wasn't a concern for him. Pretty sure that was all the injury.

Westbrook's failure was quite explicable. It was surprising when he was shooting well from the corners to begin with. He was taking 3.9 during the RS, about a third of which came from the corners. He shot 43.9% from the corners. Not the first season in which he's shot that well from the corners, but he's generally flaming ass from 3 in the playoffs, so that was about as expected. More to the point, he'd been BLAZING hot (41.9%) from 3 in the Clippers series, so a regression vs. OKC was not unexpected.

Strawther was hitting, Watson was not, but they were more minor guys.

Ultimately, I don't think it was the volume which caused them problems. I think it was Westbrook's actual level of proficiency catching up, perhaps the same with AG, MPJ's injury and then yeah, just the defensive efficacy of the Thunder. Even in the RS, the Nuggets didn't do well from 3 against tight contests (considerable drop in their shooting percentages, as expected). Braun, I dunno. This was his first season with a significant minutes load, and he also fell apart on open 3s in the playoffs, and with an elevated volume. He was sticking it inside the arc just fine, so perhaps the elevated volume got to him but that wouldn't have been a team-wide situation.

[Doctor MJ]

I mostly agree but Im not sure why Houstons defense would take a major dip swapping basically Jalen Green whos a bad defender and by far their worst and most targeted w/ Kd. Brooks is gone but i think most consider Dorian the bigger and better defender.

Suns defense was horrific last season one of the worst but Kd was far from the biggest reason there. Book,Beal,Tyus,Grayson was prolly the worst guard rotation in the league defensively they couldnt stop a nosebleed, couldnt contain penetration against anyone and none of them are big or strong athletes. Undersized guards and not athletic just finesse guards who are all bad defenders. They got cooked on the perimeter every game. Aside from them Richards,Plumlee, Oso was prolly the worst center rotation in the Nba. Richards was the 3rd string in **** Charlotte and their best option Plumlee was getting cooked all season by opposing centers that historic Jokic 30,20,20 game never been done before was against Plumlee

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-without-kevin-durant
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/phoenix-suns-defensive-rating-in-2025-with-kevin-durant

They had a 125.6 defensive rating when Kd was out which is like one of the absolute worst ever. Utah was the worst defense last season at 120.4......118.5 when Kd played is still a bad defense but obviously he doesnt look like their problem and it correlates w/ their record w/ Kd (33-29) Vs w/o (3-17). His individual defensive numbers look good too it looks like Kd, Royce and Dunn were the only Suns playing any defense last season. I dont see why Houstons defense would take a dip w/ Jalen a much worse defender gone and having replaced Brooks w/ Dorian. Theyre gonna be able to play more bigger lineups w/ Kd too

Green was a 6'4" 22-year old with great athleticism even relative to most NBAers his age, who are on average way more agile than older players.
Durant will be a 6'11" (at least) 37-year old who doesn't move like he used to.

I'm under no illusions about Green's defense being good by NBA standard, but if the Rockets try to play Durant in Green's role on defense, it will be a considerably bigger problem than playing Green in the role.

You mention that Durant had some defensive value on the Suns last year, and I'd point to him being allowed to hang out more on the interior (and block shots) was key to that. Put him in space out past the perimeter at this point against a skilled handler and he'll look like a baby deer - and you'll be able to tire him out.

So I expect that the Rockets will be looking to play Durant on the interior defensively, and they'll figure out what they have to do with their other players (especially other bigs) in order to make that work as well as possible. It's possible Udoka will come up with something brilliant that works really well, but you can't just slot Durant in for who he was traded for.

Oh no Kd def isnt gonna be put on the perimeter he plays the 4 and roamer secondary rim protector role at this stage. Suns just had 0 rim protection at the 5 and now theyll have some.

Kd at the 4 is alot stronger defensively than Jalen in any defensive role

Theyre gonna have an abundance of perimeter defenders 1-3 w/ Fvv, Dfs, Amen, Tari and its no secret they were as great as they were last season when Jalen was on the bench and Amen+Tari could terrorize opposing offenses or when Amen was running point and they stopped pretending Jalen had the capability to handle the offense. Now w/ Kd theyll be able to play those 2 together alot more and stop trying to find minutes w/ Jalen since Kd would be at the 4/5 now. That 1st Nets season w/ Udoka as the defensive coach Kd only played mins at the 4 and even 5 and Im expecting the same this season

They have a ridiculous amount of lineup flexibility w/ Kd now thats gonna allow them to play alot more dominant defensive lineups so i dont see why their defense wont be better this season upgrading defensively from Brooks to Dorian and Jalen to Kd. Not that Kds gonna have the same defensive role Jalen had the lineups are gonna look different. They even can run what Okc has been doing where their "small ball" is still huge and athletic.

Okc dominated w/ Sga, Caruso, Cason, Jdubb, Chet lineup thats a "small ball" lineup but looking at the height, size, athleticism they have the pros of small ball w/ speed, 1-5 switching and spacing while not sacrificing anything on defense. Houston now has lineups like that w/ Amen, Tari, Dorian, Kd, Jabari that on paper should be a major problem for the league.

Watch on YouTube

Kd was one of the best iso defenders last season and it wasnt a small sample either and that was on a Suns team w/ prolly the worst defensive guard rotation in the league and no real help defense. Its a complete 180 w/ Houstons defensive roster. He was also one of the best rim protecting wings. He wouldnt be replacing Jalens role in the defense but even Brooks defensive role Kd was much more effective as a defender last season so it should be an upgrade any way you slice it specially w/ Dorian there now would not surprise me at all if theyre the 2nd best defense in 26

Okay now we're more on the same page. It's a question of how the Rockets form lineups around KD which will not really relate to how they formed lineups around Green. Could be better, but won't be the same.

With your StatMuse, let's keep in mind that that those numbers are based on games Durant played or did not play. If we actually go by Durant's DRtg On-Off, the team was slightly better with Durant on the bench. In either case, the Suns defense with Durant was Bottom 5 level with respect to the rest of the league and so we should really keep in mind it's not like offenses were having trouble scoring with Durant out on the floor.

Now, I'm going to agree to your point about perimeter defenders particularly since they've now added DFS (I still can't believe the Lakers blew that), but I'm concerned about the bigs. By far the two best bigs on the roster are Durant & Sengun, but how will they fit together? As you note, the Rockets could try to emulate a Thunder smallball lineup with Durant, but that means benching Sengun, right? That seems like a problem, doesn't it?

Maybe you're low on Sengun, but regardless, my feeling is that if the Rockets recognize the issue, they should probably be getting prepared to trade Sengun now. And this seems eyebrow-raising to me given that he was the lone all-star on the team, and he's young like Amen & co. Are you really going to start trading away guys from the Amen generation to try to get a title with Durant nearing 40? (Maybe they didn't see Sengun as a great fit next to Amen...but if that's the case, shouldn't they be expecting to trade Sengun after he just got named all-star? But they haven't shown any indicators of looking to do this, have they?)

[Doctor MJ]

Now, when you're saying "They had 3-point shooters, they just shot badly against OKC.", that statement makes sense, but the thing is:

The Nuggets made more 3's per game in the Thunder series than they did in the regular season. They shot worse of course, but they took so many more 3's against OKC than normal, they still made more 3's.

So basically I'd say what happened is that the Thunder defense kept the Nuggets from getting the shot diet they prefer, and so essentially "forced" the Nuggets to take 3's at volume beyond what they normally do.

Yep, that's definitely part of it. This circles back to my remark about how limp they are as far as live-dribble threat. OKC's defensive pressure was considerable.

But the Nuggets weren't able to do it in that series. Maybe luck, maybe health, etc, but when the Nuggets needed to scale up their 3 volume, it didn't go great.

Worth remembering that MPJ was injured, and of course Jamal Murray is pretty tepid unless he's on a heater with his jumper and floater.

The Nuggets took about 8 more 3s per game in that series than in the RS.

Jokic was at +1 per game, Murray was at 7 (which is about 0.4 higher than his career-high RS mark, which he's hit twice). Gordon was at about 4.9; he was at 3.4 but he's taken 3.8, 4.4 and 5.9 3PA/g before. That said, this was his first elite 3pt shooting RS, and he fell off sharply from the corners in the playoffs. Braun was at 6.6, which was a good 3.8 more than his previous career-high. He was crushing it inside the arc but wasn't hitting his 3s. MPJ was injured, but still taking 5.1 per game... which was less than in the RS, so that wasn't a concern for him. Pretty sure that was all the injury.

Westbrook's failure was quite explicable. It was surprising when he was shooting well from the corners to begin with. He was taking 3.9 during the RS, about a third of which came from the corners. He shot 43.9% from the corners. Not the first season in which he's shot that well from the corners, but he's generally flaming ass from 3 in the playoffs, so that was about as expected. More to the point, he'd been BLAZING hot (41.9%) from 3 in the Clippers series, so a regression vs. OKC was not unexpected.

Strawther was hitting, Watson was not, but they were more minor guys.

Ultimately, I don't think it was the volume which caused them problems. I think it was Westbrook's actual level of proficiency catching up, perhaps the same with AG, MPJ's injury and then yeah, just the defensive efficacy of the Thunder. Even in the RS, the Nuggets didn't do well from 3 against tight contests (considerable drop in their shooting percentages, as expected). Braun, I dunno. This was his first season with a significant minutes load, and he also fell apart on open 3s in the playoffs, and with an elevated volume. He was sticking it inside the arc just fine, so perhaps the elevated volume got to him but that wouldn't have been a team-wide situation.

So, I get that particular guys had particularly bad playoffs that could be potentially attributed to injury and such, but you really think we should just expect that a team ramping up their 3-point volume in the playoffs will be able to keep hitting at the same percentage generally? That's not an assumption I would make.

[tsherkin]

So, I get that particular guys had particularly bad playoffs that could be potentially attributed to injury and such, but you really think we should just expect that a team ramping up their 3-point volume in the playoffs will be able to keep hitting at the same percentage generally? That's not an assumption I would make.

We'll look at that for a second, but I think that generally, they shouldn't look completely incompetent from 3, yes. And they shot well against the Clippers and then dive-bombed against an extremely high-order defense while one of their major volume shooters was injured. So it lines up in my head. But let's go ahead and have a peek.

2020: 35.9 / 37.9
2021: 37.7 / 38.2
2022: 35.3 / 35.7
2023: 37.9 / 37.5
2024: 37.4 / 33.2
2025: 37.6 / 34.6

So across four seasons, they match/improve their 3P% (apart from an inconsequential dip in 2023). And then they look like a disaster these past two seasons, both of which included injuries (Murray and MPJ).

Looks to me like the general trend is that the healthy Nuggets shoots well from 3 in the playoffs, and the unhealthy Nuggets don't. And then of course this year they relied on two guys who are not traditionally strong shooters, neither of whom were able to maintain against an ATG defense, first-ranked in the league during the RS (with their mobile monster C back on the floor for almost 31 mpg).

I think generally speaking, you run into a -7 defense and you have trouble. And then they got Chet back. It caused problems, as did the MPJ injury, as did Dort's D on Murray, etc, etc, etc.

I don't think the volume was the problem, personally. It's an interesting angle to explore, but I think that the plethora of strong individual defenders on the Thunder, coupled to their excellent rotation and their size was a much larger problem, and likewise health. And then also relying on two guys who just aren't naturally good shooters, and ended up having a rough series.

To whit, volume didn't seem to be bothering them against the Clippers, nor generally during the RS. You can say the team rate was low, but the individual players were mostly hovering around their career-highs all season. There are just too many other more immediately relevant explanations, at least to my mind.

[Doctor MJ]

So, I get that particular guys had particularly bad playoffs that could be potentially attributed to injury and such, but you really think we should just expect that a team ramping up their 3-point volume in the playoffs will be able to keep hitting at the same percentage generally? That's not an assumption I would make.

We'll look at that for a second, but I think that generally, they shouldn't look completely incompetent from 3, yes. And they shot well against the Clippers and then dive-bombed against an extremely high-order defense while one of their major volume shooters was injured. So it lines up in my head. But let's go ahead and have a peek.

2020: 35.9 / 37.9
2021: 37.7 / 38.2
2022: 35.3 / 35.7
2023: 37.9 / 37.5
2024: 37.4 / 33.2
2025: 37.6 / 34.6

So across four seasons, they match/improve their 3P% (apart from an inconsequential dip in 2023). And then they look like a disaster these past two seasons, both of which included injuries (Murray and MPJ).

Looks to me like the general trend is that the healthy Nuggets shoots well from 3 in the playoffs, and the unhealthy Nuggets don't. And then of course this year they relied on two guys who are not traditionally strong shooters, neither of whom were able to maintain against an ATG defense, first-ranked in the league during the RS (with their mobile monster C back on the floor for almost 31 mpg).

I think generally speaking, you run into a -7 defense and you have trouble. And then they got Chet back. It caused problems, as did the MPJ injury, as did Dort's D on Murray, etc, etc, etc.

I don't think the volume was the problem, personally. It's an interesting angle to explore, but I think that the plethora of strong individual defenders on the Thunder, coupled to their excellent rotation and their size was a much larger problem, and likewise health. And then also relying on two guys who just aren't naturally good shooters, and ended up having a rough series.

To whit, volume didn't seem to be bothering them against the Clippers, nor generally during the RS. You can say the team rate was low, but the individual players were mostly hovering around their career-highs all season. There are just too many other more immediately relevant explanations, at least to my mind.

So let me emphasize first that OKC's defense is great and that has relates to everything else going on.

Re: "volume didn't seem to be bothering them against the Clippers". Hmm, one of us is confused here.

In '24-25, in the regular season, the Nuggets shot 31.9 3PA/g.
In '24-25, in the Clipper series, the Nuggets shot 29.0 3PA/g.
In '24-25, in the Thunder series, the Nuggets shot 39.6 3PA/g.

If I'm not confused by what your point, it seems like you're taking my statement of increased 3 volume as a playoff thing - and that's probably my fault based on how I put it - when it was very much a Thunder series thing this season.

So basically, the Nuggets hit the Thunder defense and now they're forced to take more 3's. When they do so, they struggle.

One might argue that this has nothing to do with struggling to up volume effectively, and everything to do with shots just being hard against the Thunder, and I don't mean to appear to be dismissing the role of the Thunder being the Thunder in all of this.

However, generally a team taking considerably more 3's than normal in a series probably means they're taking 3's in situations they normally don't. As in, situations where either a) would normally look to pass up the 3 to do something else, or b) would normally not receive the ball (late in the shot clock, etc).

And while one might want to just take those scenarios and say "more defensive pressure", I think we have to note that the Thunder blocked less of the Nuggets shots than the Clippers did. Doesn't mean that the Thunder didn't put more pressure on the Nuggets generally (because of course they did), but I'd argue that that pressure was more about keeping guys from getting the ball in a preferred shooting position than it was it actually keeping them from getting good 3-point looks.

Here's where I'd also point out that despite the Thunder having an amazing overall offense, they gave up the worst 3P% in the league to opponents in the regular season while allowing about as many 3PA/g (39.3) as they allowed in the Denver series (39.6).

This then to say the Thunder gave up about as many 3's against the Nuggets as they normally give up to opponents, but the Nuggets shot considerably worse against those 3's than a typical regular season offense did.

Zooming back out, none of this is proving that there's any particular cause here. All we really know is:

1. Nuggets shot less 3's than everyone else in the regular season despite Jokic ramping up his 3 volume specifically to address the lack of 3-point shooting he perceived.

2. When they got to the playoffs and were put in a situation where they shot 3's at a more normal modern volume, their 3P% fell off a cliff.

3. Had they shot the same number of 3's as they shot in the Thunder series (277), at a regular season clip (37.6%), they'd have made 104 3's instead of 87, and that extra 17 3's would count for 51 points - which to be clear, still wouldn't give them more points in the series than the Thunder over the 7 games, but of course it would have upped the odds that the Nuggets take one of the close games in the series.

Which is then to say, maybe that would have been enough for the Nuggets to win, maybe not, because of course - as you've pointed out and I've agreed - the Thunder have advantages that go well beyond this.

[tsherkin]

If I'm not confused by what your point, it seems like you're taking my statement of increased 3 volume as a playoff thing - and that's probably my fault based on how I put it - when it was very much a Thunder series thing this season.

So basically, the Nuggets hit the Thunder defense and now they're forced to take more 3's. When they do so, they struggle.

Sure, I'm with that, but I think you're mistakenly concluding that the increased volume itself was the problem. That's where we disagree. I don't think the volume was the issue. I think the defense was the issue... as you consider in the first line which follows.

1. Nuggets shot less 3's than everyone else in the regular season despite Jokic ramping up his 3 volume specifically to address the lack of 3-point shooting he perceived.

Is that what happened? I addressed this earlier, there's another POV on this and it's him elevating his volume and also getting off some quicker shots to punish the defense and give him entry to the high post.

So let's look at it this way: let's peek at the closest defender distances on 3s in the Clippers and Thunder series.

Against the Clippers:

Closest Defender: 6+ Feet / 4-6 Feet / 2-4 Feet / 0-2 Feet
Westbrook: 4.7 3PA, 46.4% / 0.5 3PA, 0% / N/A / N/A
Murray: 2.7 3PA, 47.4% / 3.3 3PA, 34.8% / 0.7 3PA, 40% / N/A
Braun: 2.3 3PA, 31.3% / 1.3 3PA, 33.3% / N/A / N/A
Gordon: 1.6 3PA, 27.3% / 1.6 3PA, 36.4% / 0.3 3PA, 0% / N/A
Jokic: 1.3 3PA, 55.6% / 2.4 3PA / 47.1% / 0.7 3PA, 20% / N/A
MPJ: 1.0 3PA, 42.9% / 1.1 3PA, 75.0% / 2.4 3PA, 33.3% / 0.3 3PA, 0%

Against the Thunder:

Closest Defender: 6+ Feet / 4-6 Feet / 2-4 Feet / 0-2 Feet
Westbrook: 3.7 3PA, 23.1% / 0.9 3PA, 16.7% / N/A / N/A
Murray: 2.9 3PA, 40% / 3.4 3PA, 25.0% / 0.7 3PA, 20% / N/A
Braun: 4.6 3PA, 31.3% / 1.7 3PA, 25% / 0.3 3PA, 0% / N/A
Gordon: 2.9 3PA, 50% / 1.7 3PA, 33.3% / 0.3 3PA, 50% / N/A
Jokic: 1.4 3PA, 30% / 3.1 3PA, 31.8% / 1.1 3PA, 37.5% / N/A
MPJ: 1.6 3PA, 27.3% / 1.7 3PA, 25% / 1.9 3PA, 23.1% / N/A

Wide Open Shots, Closest Defender 6+ feet away

So right away, we see Braun just blowing donkeys the whole time. This was a problem, but he'd been taking 2.1 3PA/g wide open and shooting 36.5% during the regular season. He was just straight crap from 3 in the series. That smells to me more of shooting variance than anything else, because his legs weren't causing him issues driving, nor finishing inside the arc, and when I was watching the games, and we're talking about mostly open C+S 3PA here, not heavy contests.

Westbrook obviously fell apart, which was expected: he sucks as a shooter. He's been a terrible shooter his whole career, and worse over the past 8 years or so, when even his minimal pull-up ability and mediocre 3pt shooting had vanished. So this was somewhat expected from him. Aaron Gordon was still clicking just fine on his open shots, he was even getting more of them, nearly double the volume. MPJ fell apart, which again was expected from the injury. Jokic ran dry, which was probably legs for him, but also some degree of "okay, FINALLY he starts missing from 3" after a brilliant RS and a hot first round.

Murray was hot when he was open.

Open, Closest Defender 4-6 feet away

Similar volume from Murray here compared to the Clippers series, worse result. Dort up in his face the entire time, or Williams or whomever. He struggled with any kind of contest in this series. Jokic dropped off a cliff when guys were close, and after slogging 40 mpg during the RS and bootstrapping everyone through the Clippers series while also doing literally everything for the team every game, it's not that surprising. His shooting had to run out some time. Even guys like Dirk had bad series like this. MPJ was still injured. Westbrook was thoroughly useless. Gordon struggled with the contest, but we're talking a 3% difference compared to the Clippers series, so it mattered only so much. Braun was violently useless.

Tight Contest, Closest Defender 2-4 feet away

Similar volume for MPJ, couldn't hit anything. Slightly elevated volume from Jokic, hit well. Minimum volume from anyone else on record.

Very Tight, Closest Defender 0-2 feet away

This category was negligible against the Clippers, and the same against the Thunder.



So, then.

What we see is that apart from Braun, the volume of open shots was actually quite similar, but there was a large change in their ability to hit. We then see that their volume of slightly-contested shots rises, and they shoot horribly on those. And then we see a rise in their tightly-contested volume, and predictably they shoot poorly on those.


So again, it really looks more like the Thunder were running them off the line and fighting well to stay on them through/around screens... which matches the aesthetics of the game under the eye test.

Outside of Braun, no one was really pushing it from 3 by volume that badly, but they WERE falling off relative to the Clippers series. In the LAC series, they had 4 guys averaging 38.8+ mpg. Braun was averaging 39.4. They tried to spread it around a little more against the Thunder, but Jokic was still playing 40.4 mpg, Murray 40.5, Gordon 35.7, Braun 38.4.

You

[GSP]

Green was a 6'4" 22-year old with great athleticism even relative to most NBAers his age, who are on average way more agile than older players.
Durant will be a 6'11" (at least) 37-year old who doesn't move like he used to.

I'm under no illusions about Green's defense being good by NBA standard, but if the Rockets try to play Durant in Green's role on defense, it will be a considerably bigger problem than playing Green in the role.

You mention that Durant had some defensive value on the Suns last year, and I'd point to him being allowed to hang out more on the interior (and block shots) was key to that. Put him in space out past the perimeter at this point against a skilled handler and he'll look like a baby deer - and you'll be able to tire him out.

So I expect that the Rockets will be looking to play Durant on the interior defensively, and they'll figure out what they have to do with their other players (especially other bigs) in order to make that work as well as possible. It's possible Udoka will come up with something brilliant that works really well, but you can't just slot Durant in for who he was traded for.

Oh no Kd def isnt gonna be put on the perimeter he plays the 4 and roamer secondary rim protector role at this stage. Suns just had 0 rim protection at the 5 and now theyll have some.

Kd at the 4 is alot stronger defensively than Jalen in any defensive role

Theyre gonna have an abundance of perimeter defenders 1-3 w/ Fvv, Dfs, Amen, Tari and its no secret they were as great as they were last season when Jalen was on the bench and Amen+Tari could terrorize opposing offenses or when Amen was running point and they stopped pretending Jalen had the capability to handle the offense. Now w/ Kd theyll be able to play those 2 together alot more and stop trying to find minutes w/ Jalen since Kd would be at the 4/5 now. That 1st Nets season w/ Udoka as the defensive coach Kd only played mins at the 4 and even 5 and Im expecting the same this season

They have a ridiculous amount of lineup flexibility w/ Kd now thats gonna allow them to play alot more dominant defensive lineups so i dont see why their defense wont be better this season upgrading defensively from Brooks to Dorian and Jalen to Kd. Not that Kds gonna have the same defensive role Jalen had the lineups are gonna look different. They even can run what Okc has been doing where their "small ball" is still huge and athletic.

Okc dominated w/ Sga, Caruso, Cason, Jdubb, Chet lineup thats a "small ball" lineup but looking at the height, size, athleticism they have the pros of small ball w/ speed, 1-5 switching and spacing while not sacrificing anything on defense. Houston now has lineups like that w/ Amen, Tari, Dorian, Kd, Jabari that on paper should be a major problem for the league.

Watch on YouTube

Kd was one of the best iso defenders last season and it wasnt a small sample either and that was on a Suns team w/ prolly the worst defensive guard rotation in the league and no real help defense. Its a complete 180 w/ Houstons defensive roster. He was also one of the best rim protecting wings. He wouldnt be replacing Jalens role in the defense but even Brooks defensive role Kd was much more effective as a defender last season so it should be an upgrade any way you slice it specially w/ Dorian there now would not surprise me at all if theyre the 2nd best defense in 26

Okay now we're more on the same page. It's a question of how the Rockets form lineups around KD which will not really relate to how they formed lineups around Green. Could be better, but won't be the same.

With your StatMuse, let's keep in mind that that those numbers are based on games Durant played or did not play. If we actually go by Durant's DRtg On-Off, the team was slightly better with Durant on the bench. In either case, the Suns defense with Durant was Bottom 5 level with respect to the rest of the league and so we should really keep in mind it's not like offenses were having trouble scoring with Durant out on the floor.

Now, I'm going to agree to your point about perimeter defenders particularly since they've now added DFS (I still can't believe the Lakers blew that), but I'm concerned about the bigs. By far the two best bigs on the roster are Durant & Sengun, but how will they fit together? As you note, the Rockets could try to emulate a Thunder smallball lineup with Durant, but that means benching Sengun, right? That seems like a problem, doesn't it?

Maybe you're low on Sengun, but regardless, my feeling is that if the Rockets recognize the issue, they should probably be getting prepared to trade Sengun now. And this seems eyebrow-raising to me given that he was the lone all-star on the team, and he's young like Amen & co. Are you really going to start trading away guys from the Amen generation to try to get a title with Durant nearing 40? (Maybe they didn't see Sengun as a great fit next to Amen...but if that's the case, shouldn't they be expecting to trade Sengun after he just got named all-star? But they haven't shown any indicators of looking to do this, have they?)

The small ball lineups would be used sparingly though. Sengun is a much better defender than most of the skilled offensive Euro bigs in his archetype. His rim protection numbers are good and he does a better job getting out on the perimeter and using his hands than many of them. Having the small ball w/ Jabari is just a different, faster more athletic lineup w/ basically Amen as the only non shooter. The lineups w/ Sengun or even Adams are still great for them despite not being able to shoot 3s but the small ball just gives them a devastating dimension they didn't have w/ Jalen

[Doctor MJ]

If I'm not confused by what your point, it seems like you're taking my statement of increased 3 volume as a playoff thing - and that's probably my fault based on how I put it - when it was very much a Thunder series thing this season.

So basically, the Nuggets hit the Thunder defense and now they're forced to take more 3's. When they do so, they struggle.

Sure, I'm with that, but I think you're mistakenly concluding that the increased volume itself was the problem. That's where we disagree. I don't think the volume was the issue. I think the defense was the issue... as you consider in the first line which follows.

1. Nuggets shot less 3's than everyone else in the regular season despite Jokic ramping up his 3 volume specifically to address the lack of 3-point shooting he perceived.

Is that what happened? I addressed this earlier, there's another POV on this and it's him elevating his volume and also getting off some quicker shots to punish the defense and give him entry to the high post.

So let's look at it this way: let's peek at the closest defender distances on 3s in the Clippers and Thunder series.

Against the Clippers:

Closest Defender: 6+ Feet / 4-6 Feet / 2-4 Feet / 0-2 Feet
Westbrook: 4.7 3PA, 46.4% / 0.5 3PA, 0% / N/A / N/A
Murray: 2.7 3PA, 47.4% / 3.3 3PA, 34.8% / 0.7 3PA, 40% / N/A
Braun: 2.3 3PA, 31.3% / 1.3 3PA, 33.3% / N/A / N/A
Gordon: 1.6 3PA, 27.3% / 1.6 3PA, 36.4% / 0.3 3PA, 0% / N/A
Jokic: 1.3 3PA, 55.6% / 2.4 3PA / 47.1% / 0.7 3PA, 20% / N/A
MPJ: 1.0 3PA, 42.9% / 1.1 3PA, 75.0% / 2.4 3PA, 33.3% / 0.3 3PA, 0%

Against the Thunder:

Closest Defender: 6+ Feet / 4-6 Feet / 2-4 Feet / 0-2 Feet
Westbrook: 3.7 3PA, 23.1% / 0.9 3PA, 16.7% / N/A / N/A
Murray: 2.9 3PA, 40% / 3.4 3PA, 25.0% / 0.7 3PA, 20% / N/A
Braun: 4.6 3PA, 31.3% / 1.7 3PA, 25% / 0.3 3PA, 0% / N/A
Gordon: 2.9 3PA, 50% / 1.7 3PA, 33.3% / 0.3 3PA, 50% / N/A
Jokic: 1.4 3PA, 30% / 3.1 3PA, 31.8% / 1.1 3PA, 37.5% / N/A
MPJ: 1.6 3PA, 27.3% / 1.7 3PA, 25% / 1.9 3PA, 23.1% / N/A

Wide Open Shots, Closest Defender 6+ feet away

So right away, we see Braun just blowing donkeys the whole time. This was a problem, but he'd been taking 2.1 3PA/g wide open and shooting 36.5% during the regular season. He was just straight crap from 3 in the series. That smells to me more of shooting variance than anything else, because his legs weren't causing him issues driving, nor finishing inside the arc, and when I was watching the games, and we're talking about mostly open C+S 3PA here, not heavy contests.

Westbrook obviously fell apart, which was expected: he sucks as a shooter. He's been a terrible shooter his whole career, and worse over the past 8 years or so, when even his minimal pull-up ability and mediocre 3pt shooting had vanished. So this was somewhat expected from him. Aaron Gordon was still clicking just fine on his open shots, he was even getting more of them, nearly double the volume. MPJ fell apart, which again was expected from the injury. Jokic ran dry, which was probably legs for him, but also some degree of "okay, FINALLY he starts missing from 3" after a brilliant RS and a hot first round.

Murray was hot when he was open.

Open, Closest Defender 4-6 feet away

Similar volume from Murray here compared to the Clippers series, worse result. Dort up in his face the entire time, or Williams or whomever. He struggled with any kind of contest in this series. Jokic dropped off a cliff when guys were close, and after slogging 40 mpg during the RS and bootstrapping everyone through the Clippers series while also doing literally everything for the team every game, it's not that surprising. His shooting had to run out some time. Even guys like Dirk had bad series like this. MPJ was still injured. Westbrook was thoroughly useless. Gordon struggled with the contest, but we're talking a 3% difference compared to the Clippers series, so it mattered only so much. Braun was violently useless.

Tight Contest, Closest Defender 2-4 feet away

Similar volume for MPJ, couldn't hit anything. Slightly elevated volume from Jokic, hit well. Minimum volume from anyone else on record.

Very Tight, Closest Defender 0-2 feet away

This category was negligible against the Clippers, and the same against the Thunder.



So, then.

What we see is that apart from Braun, the volume of open shots was actually quite similar, but there was a large change in their ability to hit. We then see that their volume of slightly-contested shots rises, and they shoot horribly on those. And then we see a rise in their tightly-contested volume, and predictably they shoot poorly on those.


So again, it really looks more like the Thunder were running them off the line and fighting well to stay on them through/around screens... which matches the aesthetics of the game under the eye test.

Outside of Braun, no one was really pushing it from 3 by volume that badly, but they WERE falling off relative to the Clippers series. In the LAC series, they had 4 guys averaging 38.8+ mpg. Braun was averaging 39.4. They tried to spread it around a little more against the Thunder, but Jokic was still playing 40.4 mpg, Murray 40.5, Gordon 35.7, Braun 38.4.

You

So, there's great information here t, thank you!

I do forget precisely what we were debating though. The whole "of course Westbrook's shooting fell apart and Braun's was terrible the whole time - and of course Porter just about as bad, but that doesn't mean shooting was a problem for the Nuggets" just doesn't work for me. I get you're saying that it's that basically the same guy are playing better and then they play worse, but that doesn't mean they're just 'worse', they just weren't at their best in this particular moment, but I just have to ponder:

How is it that running players off the line led to them shooting more 3's than normal?

So, were they really trying to "run them off the line", or were the Thunder seeking to disrupt the Nuggets' preferred offensive action (Jokic in his office) in such a way were the Thunder were actually wanting the Nuggets to shoot more 3's?

To be clear, I'm not saying the Thunder D was just letting Nugget players catch & shoot open 3's, but if the Thunder wanted the Nuggets to take less 3's, they could have prioritized that.

Going along with this, with the causality always squishy, it this idea of "shooting in rhythm". You're trying to avoid the dreaded "swing swing" to a ready & waiting shooter, but you also can't commit to lacking the perimeter down because of the interior threat, so what can you do? Well, if through sheer aggression you can get players out of their rhythm well enough, that's probably all you need to do.

Of course, really great shooters are great precisely because how resilient their rhythm is, so if you suspect that your opponents' shooters aren't actually as great as their RS numbers indicate because they particularly reliant on shooting in rhythm - which you should suspect whenever there's an amazing passer stirring the pot - then forcing the team to rely on those shooters as the plot thickens seems a pretty wise choice.

We can agree that the Nuggets have other problems, and will always be expected to be more of a problem defensively than offensively, but honestly, I think the Nuggets can build a lot better around Jokic than they had as of '24-25.

[jalengreen]

So much for jonas

[Peregrine01]

Cool sheet to see inflation adjusted playoff scoring and efficiency going back to 1977: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RakughJ2nkS91bqtBxpwjSXSLPfwKZ982u0WLaBYMYw/edit?pli=1&gid=990310315#gid=990310315

[RCM88x]

Cool sheet to see inflation adjusted playoff scoring and efficiency going back to 1977: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RakughJ2nkS91bqtBxpwjSXSLPfwKZ982u0WLaBYMYw/edit?pli=1&gid=990310315#gid=990310315

Won't let it copy one to my drive so I can change the player search, anyone else able to?