Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[DASMACKDOWN]

The "Gulf of Mexico" comment makes me think Giddey is chasing a very large number, because it was already in the aether during the season that he would likely be looking at $30m or so. I wonder if Giddey is asking for above $35m and the Bulls are in the mid to low 20s.

I am higher on Giddey than most, and I think there is a solid chance he could play up to a $35m deal. But that is a number where given the market conditions it would be bad business by the Bulls to give it to him. I'd be confident in Giddey remaining a positive trade asset on anything $30m or less.

The initial report was something around 24 mil per year a few weeks ago. If Giddey is looking for 35 mil, then he will Dennis Schroder himself.

Ever since Schroder turned down that Laker deal he has bounced around the league and never even sniffed close to the deal he could have had. This new Kings deal is the best he has had since and its 15 mil per year. Still way down from the 21 per year he turned down.

[Andi Obst]

People really not understanding how contract negotiations work?

To be fair, Bulls fans have no experience with a front office that negotiates. This is new.

[wolffy]

18 million a year for a guy who you could argue has done nothing but regress since he was a rookie is pretty awful. I don't even think he's in the same tier as an Okoro who i imagine will close games over Pat very soon into the season because Williams does literally nothing to impact winning.

Okoro is a black hole offensively. His defender is going to leave him wide open. If Giddey doesn't maintain a big improvement shooting and his guy also sags, this would be a painful line up to watch.

I don't know if you haven't noticed, but teams don't guard Pat lol

And now we have both?

[MisterRoy]

Okoro is a black hole offensively. His defender is going to leave him wide open. If Giddey doesn't maintain a big improvement shooting and his guy also sags, this would be a painful line up to watch.

I don't know if you haven't noticed, but teams don't guard Pat lol

And now we have both?

Are we sure the Bulls can't waive Pat for "actions detrimental to the team?" I mean, his play and all...

[DrModesty]

The "Gulf of Mexico" comment makes me think Giddey is chasing a very large number, because it was already in the aether during the season that he would likely be looking at $30m or so. I wonder if Giddey is asking for above $35m and the Bulls are in the mid to low 20s.

I am higher on Giddey than most, and I think there is a solid chance he could play up to a $35m deal. But that is a number where given the market conditions it would be bad business by the Bulls to give it to him. I'd be confident in Giddey remaining a positive trade asset on anything $30m or less.

The initial report was something around 24 mil per year a few weeks ago. If Giddey is looking for 35 mil, then he will Dennis Schroder himself.

Ever since Schroder turned down that Laker deal he has bounced around the league and never even sniffed close to the deal he could have had. This new Kings deal is the best he has had since and its 15 mil per year. Still way down from the 21 per year he turned down.

I believe that was Fischer and was also just that Giddey wanted a 5 year deal and that he was projecting it at no lower than $24m per year. Fischer tends to throw a lot of stuff at the wall and see what sticks, and on top of that the only thing it says regarding Giddey's side is that he wants a 5 year deal. His projections are just that and they only touched on the lower bound. That said I hope they sort a deal. $24m is arguably fair both ways (definitely it is rock solid for the Bulls) but is on the borderline of whether he would take the QO in my opinion. I expect it to come in at the 4/140-150m range.

Schroeder was coming from a much weaker bargaining position when he foolishly turned down that deal. He was older, less talented, had a history of locker room issues, small, had no elite skills, had no upside, the front office/LeBron weren't very invested in him, he had a bad playoff series, and the deal he turned down was an insane overpay 4/84 (equivalent of 29m per year for the 2025/26 cap).

I have been pretty consistent on this, but I believe that Giddey is at a low risk of being a Schroeder or Noel. It is a different level of player, even with his flaws. Now, there is still significant risk in taking a QO. But even if things go badly for him next season, he should be able to get the MLE in a more open market. On the other hand, the upside is high and also more likely to play out.

[Red8911]

The "Gulf of Mexico" comment makes me think Giddey is chasing a very large number, because it was already in the aether during the season that he would likely be looking at $30m or so. I wonder if Giddey is asking for above $35m and the Bulls are in the mid to low 20s.

I am higher on Giddey than most, and I think there is a solid chance he could play up to a $35m deal. But that is a number where given the market conditions it would be bad business by the Bulls to give it to him. I'd be confident in Giddey remaining a positive trade asset on anything $30m or less.

Gulf of Mexico doesn’t even exist anymore so that comment throws me off even more. Why would he use that as an example? Is there no offer at all from the bulls ?

[Red8911]

I don't know if you haven't noticed, but teams don't guard Pat lol

And now we have both?

Are we sure the Bulls can't waive Pat for "actions detrimental to the team?" I mean, his play and all...

Say what you want about Reinsdorf but imagine having to pay PWilll 18 million a year to play basketball.

[dougthonus]

The "Gulf of Mexico" comment makes me think Giddey is chasing a very large number, because it was already in the aether during the season that he would likely be looking at $30m or so. I wonder if Giddey is asking for above $35m and the Bulls are in the mid to low 20s.

I am higher on Giddey than most, and I think there is a solid chance he could play up to a $35m deal. But that is a number where given the market conditions it would be bad business by the Bulls to give it to him. I'd be confident in Giddey remaining a positive trade asset on anything $30m or less.

The initial report was something around 24 mil per year a few weeks ago. If Giddey is looking for 35 mil, then he will Dennis Schroder himself.

Ever since Schroder turned down that Laker deal he has bounced around the league and never even sniffed close to the deal he could have had. This new Kings deal is the best he has had since and its 15 mil per year. Still way down from the 21 per year he turned down.

What was the initial report? I must have missed it as I didn't see anyone reporting numbers.

[Infinity2152]

Giddey had to fire his agent two years ago during the OKC investigation. He's 22. He's likely minimally involved in the negotiations and like Kuminga is going with what his new agent is telling him. Just like the Bulls are supposed to try to get the best deal they can, his agent is supposed to do the same thing the other way. It's a tug-of-war. We're extremely lucky we have so much leverage this summer, and may be stung with the Pat William's contract. $30 mill will likely be average NBA starter money during that contract, is there any doubt he's at LEAST an average starter level player?

He can't really go anywhere else. Unless somebody crosses a line or makes it personal, a deal is going to get done. The longer it takes, advantage Bulls. Less and less competition and money out there.

It's crazy Kuminga is considered the top RFA. There's NO WAY I'd trade Giddey for Kuminga. Not for Kuminga and a first.

[MrSparkle]

And now we have both?

Are we sure the Bulls can't waive Pat for "actions detrimental to the team?" I mean, his play and all...

Say what you want about Reinsdorf but imagine having to pay PWilll 18 million a year to play basketball.

I dunno. He's used to it. There always has to be some really bad, stupid contract on the Bulls books that most people could've seen a mile away. (Felicio, taking RoLo's extra money imho was stupid when Rose was expiring, Wade's 2nd year fully guaranteed). Now nobody fore-saw Lonzo's terrible injury, but they couldn't wait to replace most that $20M with something longer and more unjustified.

Some other deals that were deeply regretted less than 10 months in: E-Rob, Wallace, Boozer, Rip, Jevon... I don't know how you can screw up so many MLE deals, but the Bulls do it.

[MrSparkle]

My take with Giddey is that he's gonna be offended with anything under $30M, and that this isn't gonna end well. Either Bulls don't meet his expectations and he bets on himself (takes a 1Y deal), or Bulls end up overpaying.

[MisterRoy]

I imagine it went like this:

AK: how does $20M a year sound?
JG: I was thinking more like $30M...
AK: OK, let's talk again on the 5th. Sound good?
JG: OK.

There, a "Gulf of Mexico" apart.

[Infinity2152]

My take with Giddey is that he's gonna be offended with anything under $30M, and that this isn't gonna end well. Either Bulls don't meet his expectations and he bets on himself (takes a 1Y deal), or Bulls end up overpaying.

What we should be worried about is people are worried about paying Giddey $30 mill and/or overpaying him in a summer where no team has cap space and he's restricted, but think we're re-signing Coby to a value deal next summer as an unrestricted FA in a summer with a ton of money out there.

We underpaid Coby for years. He's a staple. Giddey had a great half-season here. He watched the Lavine negotiations and he sees what's happening with Giddey. If we "overpay" Giddey, what are the odds we get a great deal with Coby?

Giddey's agent should be professional enough to not let getting offended affect the negotiations, but don't know enough about Giddey's temper or his relationship with his agent or how much Giddey is even involved to hazard a guess. No sense getting offended, both sides are trying to get the best deal. He wants to be here, we want him here.

[DrModesty]

My take with Giddey is that he's gonna be offended with anything under $30M, and that this isn't gonna end well. Either Bulls don't meet his expectations and he bets on himself (takes a 1Y deal), or Bulls end up overpaying.

What we should be worried about is people are worried about paying Giddey $30 mill and/or overpaying him in a summer where no team has cap space and he's restricted, but think we're re-signing Coby to a value deal next summer as an unrestricted FA in a summer with a ton of money out there.

We underpaid Coby for years. He's a staple. Giddey had a great half-season here. He watched the Lavine negotiations and he sees what's happening with Giddey. If we "overpay" Giddey, what are the odds we get a great deal with Coby?

There is a bit of a market correction going on with score first, can't defend guards.

Jazz had to add a 2nd to trade Sexton for Nurkic and both were expiring on the same size contracts.
Portland had to add multiple seconds to trade an expiring Simons for Jrue who has 3 years left, is viewed as overpaid, and might be starting to hit the wall.
Ty Jerome just had a break out, 6MOTY level season and the Cavs let him walk, and he ended up signing elsewhere for under $10m per year.
Malik Beasley won the actual 6 MOTY award on a crazy shooting season and Detroit were only going to offer him 3/42 before this gambling stuff. That is despite most of their rotation being unable to shoot 3's.

Coby probably needs to make the all star team to have a shot at getting real big money.

[GoBlue72391]

I imagine it went like this:

AK: how does $20M a year sound?
JG: I was thinking more like $30M...
AK: OK, let's talk again on the 5th. Sound good?
JG: OK.

There, a "Gulf of Mexico" apart.

I doubt it, but sure.

[dougthonus]

I have been pretty consistent on this, but I believe that Giddey is at a low risk of being a Schroeder or Noel. It is a different level of player, even with his flaws. Now, there is still significant risk in taking a QO. But even if things go badly for him next season, he should be able to get the MLE in a more open market. On the other hand, the upside is high and also more likely to play out.

I started a new thread about various risks / rewards mathematically drawn out adjusting for cap increases at various contract offers the Bulls / Giddey may discuss.

Comparing risk vs reward is and upside vs downside isn't a single answer in a vacuum, it's based compared to what. Like at 20M offer, his upside is far greater than his downside. At 30M a year, his downside is a lot more than his upside. Not sure where each side is at right now, so hard to guess.

[Infinity2152]

My take with Giddey is that he's gonna be offended with anything under $30M, and that this isn't gonna end well. Either Bulls don't meet his expectations and he bets on himself (takes a 1Y deal), or Bulls end up overpaying.

What we should be worried about is people are worried about paying Giddey $30 mill and/or overpaying him in a summer where no team has cap space and he's restricted, but think we're re-signing Coby to a value deal next summer as an unrestricted FA in a summer with a ton of money out there.

We underpaid Coby for years. He's a staple. Giddey had a great half-season here. He watched the Lavine negotiations and he sees what's happening with Giddey. If we "overpay" Giddey, what are the odds we get a great deal with Coby?

There is a bit of a market correction going on with score first, can't defend guards.

Jazz had to add a 2nd to trade Sexton for Nurkic and both were expiring on the same size contracts.
Portland had to add multiple seconds to trade an expiring Simons for Jrue who has 3 years left, is viewed as overpaid, and might be starting to hit the wall.
Ty Jerome just had a break out, 6MOTY level season and the Cavs let him walk, and he ended up signing elsewhere for under $10m per year.
Malik Beasley won the actual 6 MOTY award on a crazy shooting season and Detroit were only going to offer him 3/42 before this gambling stuff. That is despite most of their rotation being unable to shoot 3's.

Coby probably needs to make the all star team to have a shot at getting real big money.

Almost all those deals expire next year. There will be a ton of teams with cap next year. I keep saying, you cannot think what's happening this summer will happen next summer. Only one team had money this summer, and announced they weren't signing free agents. Next summer will be way different.

A score first guard (Jalen Green) was just the best player piece sent in a trade for Durant. He's arguably on Coby's level.

Ty Jerome signed for a 1 year deal, because he expects to get paid much more next year in a much better free agency.

Jrue Holiday is an infinitely better player than Simons and clearly they're looking for a vet to lead the young guys. They bought out Ayton, money is not a concern for them right now. Wasn't Jrue on the All Defense team last year? Plus they have Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson.

I would think Coby is valued much higher than Malik Beasley. Last season was the first since 2020 Beasley has averaged over 13 pts. He got 16 last year. And he's 29.

[MisterRoy]

I imagine it went like this:

AK: how does $20M a year sound?
JG: I was thinking more like $30M...
AK: OK, let's talk again on the 5th. Sound good?
JG: OK.

There, a "Gulf of Mexico" apart.

I doubt it, but sure.

My point was about making a mountain out of a mole hill on a slow news day. He'll be back in a Bulls uni. Just wait til after the holiday.

[ch434355]

The "Gulf of Mexico" comment makes me think Giddey is chasing a very large number, because it was already in the aether during the season that he would likely be looking at $30m or so. I wonder if Giddey is asking for above $35m and the Bulls are in the mid to low 20s.

I am higher on Giddey than most, and I think there is a solid chance he could play up to a $35m deal. But that is a number where given the market conditions it would be bad business by the Bulls to give it to him. I'd be confident in Giddey remaining a positive trade asset on anything $30m or less.

Gulf of Mexico doesn’t even exist anymore so that comment throws me off even more. Why would he use that as an example? Is there no offer at all from the bulls ?

Oh God, 10 years from now people will laugh at the morons who called it Gulf of America for a while.

[GoBlue72391]

I imagine it went like this:

AK: how does $20M a year sound?
JG: I was thinking more like $30M...
AK: OK, let's talk again on the 5th. Sound good?
JG: OK.

There, a "Gulf of Mexico" apart.

I doubt it, but sure.

My point was about making a mountain out of a mole hill on a slow news day. He'll be back in a Bulls uni. Just wait til after the holiday.

We're in like what, the 4th day of free agency? I'm sure they've been negotiating a lot more than that and I bet Giddey's agent is still negotiating with the team even through the holiday.

Giddey is an Aussie and is probably back home not giving a crap about an American holiday anyway.