The Toronto Raptors can be a 50 win playoff home team. Here is how.

[ash_k]

We been saying this every offseason for the past few years that we will surprise people and be a great team + have a good playoffs .....Which always ends up not being the case.....We should just wait and see how it goes....Every offseason i see a bunch of posters say we will be a top seed and have a playoffs run....Which does not actually happen....

It will take one heck of a season by all players on the roster to come close to 50 wins imo...But we shall see...

Injuries cannot be predicted right? (IQ had never been this injured before, not even close)then add on top of that FOs forcing the coaching staff to lose games on purpose, once the season looks lost early.

It is like the fans predicting at the beginning of the season 30-wins then they come back at the end of the season "I was right" cmon .

Anybody that thought we were a 30-win-team last season just can't see basketball&talent-level properly at all.(and that is without BI)

Ingram's talent level is up there with Tatum. Can he stay healthy for 70 games? Can IQ stay healthy back to his normal-self? Scottie&Yak? can they play over 70 games? if they can then watch out, if they cannot then same mess.

We'll see how it goes. RJ isn't the healthiest guy. Ingram is almost assuredly not going to play 70 games. Quickley has now played under 70 games 3 times, though is more likely to play a good number than not, as last year was certainly an outlier.

Injuries are a thing. But if we're even passably healthy for, like, 2/3s of the season, we should be in a good place. This is a lot more interesting than our 2025 record, that's certainly true. And maybe CMB will surprise and help firm up the bench enough that we are more mid/high 40s at the end of the year. There's any reason to be optimistic, especially with the state of the East, which is kind of nice.

I must say I thought RJ was going to need knee surgery at some point (carrying it from NY). But his missing-games have been mostly due to personal reasons and FOs decisions though

The length and talent of our frontline with BI scoring thus fully liberating Scottie's as a 20pt version of prime-Ben-Simmons with Yak just looks amazing on paper just amazing. . Gradey's stamina and strength are going to better giving him the ability to reproduce that Nov-Dec-Jan run with more consistency. There is just so much room for improvement with our below25 players. Only injuries can stop us(again). Indeed the current state of the East is really nice for us. Plus we need to know next season if our roster has playoff performers like Nemhard and TJ to make further roster decisions

[Broadcaster]

Easily, without Injuries, this talent-level guarantees 45-win just by showing up
Though without Masai things are going to be much more fragile with the Scotties, Ingrams and IQs.
Trading RJ would be shooting ourselves in the foot, in the immediate post-Masai era.

The talent level is easily a Top4 in the East. But again and again It is still and all about Darko. Thankfully there are some great coaches available (but won't be too long): Ideally Jenkins or Malone runs our next training camp.
Anyway, Darko's leash has to be supershort.

Talent level top four in the east? Pretty big stretch there.

[ash_k]

We been saying this every offseason for the past few years that we will surprise people and be a great team + have a good playoffs .....Which always ends up not being the case.....We should just wait and see how it goes....Every offseason i see a bunch of posters say we will be a top seed and have a playoffs run....Which does not actually happen....

It will take one heck of a season by all players on the roster to come close to 50 wins imo...But we shall see...

Injuries cannot be predicted right? (IQ had never been this injured before, not even close)then add on top of that FOs forcing the coaching staff to lose games on purpose, once the season looks lost early.

It is like the fans predicting at the beginning of the season 30-wins then they come back at the end of the season "I was right" cmon .

Anybody that thought we were a 30-win-team last season just can't see basketball&talent-level properly at all.(and that is without BI)

Ingram's talent level is up there with Tatum. Can he stay healthy for 70 games? Can IQ stay healthy back to his normal-self? Scottie&Yak? can they play over 70 games? if they can then watch out, if they cannot then same mess.

Injuries are part of the game so yes health will play a factor....But also on court chemistry matters (The starting lineup has not played together yet), Coaching matters....Its not just "Look at the talent" on the roster thing....The players on the court have to fit together and play together well....

Not saying they won't or will.....What im saying is every off season these kind of threads are made with lots of posters saying how good we will be .....Which ends up not being the case the last 5 years or so.....We will be lucky to get to 45 wins imo....50+ seems a little bit much....But we shall see...

Betting on Ingram to stay healthy + No Yak injuries is something to not bet on imo...

You certainly do not need to tell me that coaching matters ..got many posters here thinking I have something personal with him.
I wish all of us better luck with injuries though.

100% it is all about Chemistry and we know 'BI and Scottie' is an amazing fit with their approach to the game perfectly matching. With all those players below25 improving, It just leads to a lot of optimism, a lot.
Only injuries and bad coaching can stop us.

[PhilBlackson]

I won't lie I didn't get through the whole post lol no offense..

But yes I think if almost EVERYTHING went right (esp health ofc) I think that would be the height of the potential...I don't think that's the likely outcome but I'm more so using that as a "gauge" of how talented the group might be at it's best and NOT as the expected outcome.

I think we'll more realistically land somewhere b/w 44-48Ws because minor injuries just seem a bit inevitable, technically neither the starting lineup or the new bench has spent extensive time playing together so I expect there to be a few more ups/downs (especially once teams have more footage to scout what our lineups do), a couple of bumps but in the end we will finish with a record something just below that. But I think when the team gets humming we'll be more at the level, I think something like the previous year's Pacers (23/24) where people are skeptic that our team is that good but they're really just starting. I think the team will have to at least deal with a little growing pains but like that squad I think they can do enough to get noticed.

All the guys both young and in their primes, get the experience under their belts, get a real feel of what it's going to take physically, mentally and just a level of cohesion amongst the group, Then as of 26'+ onwards I think they could/will be a 50+W IF Rogers doesn't cheap out...and also become a team that literally just needs one more really good trade for at least an all-star and we'll contend. However I think Bobby & Co will feel the heat to make that trade happen THIS year, not next which is what should make for an incredibly interesting season ahead...

[Shakril]

Here's why I think this is a 40-win team.

1) Defence
I don't buy the defensive resurgence from the second half of the season. The quality of the opponents fell off a cliff and the 2nd rated defence (post All-Star Break) was paired with the 5th worst offence in the league. My belief is that the defence looked better with 2nd-string and G League players fighting for their lives against similarly skilled teams. On top of that, opposing teams shot a league-worst 33.2% from three - a full percentage point lower than the next best three-point defence. That, to me, is largely based on shooting variance and not anything special that they achieved as a team.

2) Availability
Last season highlighted how this team cannot survive an injury to any of the starters. If Poeltl goes down for any significant stretch of time, I don't see how this team plays even .500 basketball. The injury history of Quickley and Ingram, in particular, would suggest that we should expect some lost time. Who steps up behind that? This team may have depth, but it is theoretical depth based on potential. If someone steps up, that's great, but the probability is that they may fall short of the starting standards.

3) Top-end Talent
We need Scottie Barnes or Brandon Ingram to play at an All-Star / All-NBA level to be a confirmed playoff team. I'm skeptical of whether they can hit that level, but only time will tell.

I don't buy the defensive resurgence either. Here was our strength of schedule for the final 2 months of 2024-25:

.367

I'm pretty sure that was the lowest SOS any team has EVER had over the course of 2 months.

We don't have the talent to be a top defense.

-IQ/RJ/BI is not a good perimeter defensive rotation

-Poeltl is not as good defensively as many prop him up to be. He's still solid but he hasn't been the same defender he was in SAS and the numbers back this up. He's no longer the top 6-7ish rim protector he was in his SAS days. He's not a "drag a team to a top defense" level center.

-our offensive system isn't conducive to being a top defense. We preach ball movement. That leads to turnovers and deficits in the possession game.

Nothing about this team suggest we'll be "good" defensively. Maybe above average at best. We don't have the talent and our playstyle results in worse defensive outcomes .

Why are you even watching the raptors? I noticed that everything is bad, our players overpaid, and nobody is as good as the worst player from okc. Did i forget something?

[tsherkin]

I must say I thought RJ was going to need knee surgery at some point (carrying it from NY). But his missing-games have been mostly due to personal reasons and FOs decisions though

Yep, though he has been dinged up here and there as well. We'll see what he looks like this season. He always finds a way to miss a bunch of games regardless, so the reason behind the availability is somewhat of less importance when the pattern is reasonably consistent.

The length and talent of our frontline with BI scoring thus fully liberating Scottie's as a 20pt version of prime-Ben-Simmons

I will be very disappointed if we keep running that sort of volume to Scottie, to be honest, barring a large shift in his ability. I want him to shoot less, defend more and just embrace being a defensive PF who handles the ball some because he's a good passer. Again, unless he suddenly discovers shot-making, in which case, whatever, do your thing. And I think we can allow that to happen with this roster.

And yeah, I'm hopeful we'll see something from Gradey. Or it could be from Walter, or RJ, I'm honestly not that picky. We've got some interesting players who could potentially elevate, and it would be nice to see it this year. Or, if we're HYSTERICALLY lucky, they all improve and we're spoiled for choice and have to make a move to clear space and cap and still get left with good stuff, heh.

[Potential]

I hope our players realize for the 1st time since the Siakam and OG trades that this is a BIG season coming up in the big city of Toronto. The lights are going to be bright

[ash_k]

The length and talent of our frontline with BI scoring thus fully liberating Scottie's as a 20pt version of prime-Ben-Simmons

I will be very disappointed if we keep running that sort of volume to Scottie, to be honest, barring a large shift in his ability. I want him to shoot less, defend more and just embrace being a defensive PF who handles the ball some because he's a good passer. Again, unless he suddenly discovers shot-making, in which case, whatever, do your thing. And I think we can allow that to happen with this roster.

And yeah, I'm hopeful we'll see something from Gradey. Or it could be from Walter, or RJ, I'm honestly not that picky. We've got some interesting players who could potentially elevate, and it would be nice to see it this year. Or, if we're HYSTERICALLY lucky, they all improve and we're spoiled for choice and have to make a move to clear space and cap and still get left with good stuff, heh.

You are harsh with Scottie! Embrace defensive PF? Asking him to shoot less? I actually think doing so would be bailing him out from his full potential. I just want him to stop taking all those 3 though
One play that made me even more excited about Gradey is actually a defensive play on Kyrie; sticking with him and shocking Kyrie. That Kid has a chance to be really special with added stamina and strength.
We need to know how those players (like IQ) handle the playoff pressure together, to start clearing space and cap. We just cant wait another year.

[tsherkin]

You are harsh with Scottie! Embrace defensive PF?

I have very little faith in his ability to develop as a scorer. I have a lot of faith his ability to be a high-value defender and secondary ball-handler, though (kind of, "as he was scouted," so to speak). It's been 4 years and we've seen very, very little from him as a scorer. I'm sure he can be a little better than what we've seen, but we're starting to try and win now, so wasting possessions on volume scoring from Scottie just doesn't make sense. He has plenty to contribute, just not that way. Finding himself in more of a Draymond-ish role isn't the worst thing we could do with him. All-D, involved as a playmaker and rebounder... it's probably for the best.

I would rather have the offense flowing through BI, Quick and our shooters than having Scottie handle too much. If we can reduce his volume and try to proportionately represent transition and cuts a lot more, he should look less profoundly awful as a scoring threat. And he can handle a little, drive to get those 10-footers on the left side of the key, the elbow jumpers, and what-not the odd time to mix things up.

[StopitLeo]

We only lost Chris Boucher this offseason…. (Whose barely a subtraction because he didn’t really play last year)

While adding: Ingram, CMB, Martin, and Mamu

It ain’t rocket science - we got a lot more firepower, our young guys are bound to take the next step, and the East is gonna be extremely weak next season.

I think we’ll be pretty good next season. Could easily see us being a 50 win team. But we need to be healthy and need at least 65-70 games from Ingram.

Ingram is the key to everything. It's comforting to know that he is in good hands with Toronto's medical staff. Did you know the Pelicans didn't have a physiotherapist on staff until the 23-24 season?

I'm so excited to see Ingram because it is easy to forget just how skilled he is offensively. We honestly have not had an offensive threat like him since Kawhi. He's going to open up Scottie's game so much and I think BI's game is going to flourish playing alongside high IQ guys like Scottie and Jak who can make plays for others.

[MEDIC]

If they aren't a top 10 defensive team next season, you have to start questioning Darko.

This team should be top 13 bare minimum.

[ontnut]

We CAN be, but we're probably more in the ~.500+ tier. While the Celtics, Pacers, Bucks regress, we might get a 76ers resurgence, along with nice offseason improvements for ORL. CHA might take a leap, and like you, I believe ATL is going to be the most improved team in the league this year. Then there's DET too who are a wild card - they could take another leap, or regress as last year's leap was a mirage.

Right now my East is:
Tier 1: Cavs Knicks
Tier 2: Hawks Magic
Tier 3: Pacers Celtics Raptors Bucks Pistons (wild card 76ers who could be anywhere from tier 1-tier 5 again, avg it out to 3)
Tier 4: Bulls Heat Hornets
Tier 5: Nets Wizards

So Raptors could end up anywhere from 5-10. 37-48 wins if going by '24-'25 East standings, which feels about right for a floor and ceiling.
I expect the Vegas line to be around .500, probably a o/u 40.5 if I were to guess, as the media seems pretty down on the Raps overall which might lead to a depressed betting market. Last season we opened at o/u 36.5 wins. And I think we'll get a 4 win boost on the basis of Ingram's weighted avg of about 4 WS per season alone. Nevermind hopefully a healthy IQ (and the rest of the squad), plus CMB and internal development from the young guys.

If it does open at .500, I think I'd take the over on that bet with moderate confidence.

[Clutch0z24]

You are harsh with Scottie! Embrace defensive PF?

I have very little faith in his ability to develop as a scorer. I have a lot of faith his ability to be a high-value defender and secondary ball-handler, though (kind of, "as he was scouted," so to speak). It's been 4 years and we've seen very, very little from him as a scorer. I'm sure he can be a little better than what we've seen, but we're starting to try and win now, so wasting possessions on volume scoring from Scottie just doesn't make sense. He has plenty to contribute, just not that way. Finding himself in more of a Draymond-ish role isn't the worst thing we could do with him. All-D, involved as a playmaker and rebounder... it's probably for the best.

I would rather have the offense flowing through BI, Quick and our shooters than having Scottie handle too much. If we can reduce his volume and try to proportionately represent transition and cuts a lot more, he should look less profoundly awful as a scoring threat. And he can handle a little, drive to get those 10-footers on the left side of the key, the elbow jumpers, and what-not the odd time to mix things up.

Yeah Scotties game is not the scorer on the team....We now have Ingram for that job....I think we need one more big time scorer on the level of Ingram....If IQ/Barrett or someone else can become that....Perfect...Barnes needs to be in the role where he scores off hustle points, wide open looks....When he tries to be the go to guy it does not work out for him...

[S.W.A.N]

The length and talent of our frontline with BI scoring thus fully liberating Scottie's as a 20pt version of prime-Ben-Simmons

I will be very disappointed if we keep running that sort of volume to Scottie, to be honest, barring a large shift in his ability. I want him to shoot less, defend more and just embrace being a defensive PF who handles the ball some because he's a good passer. Again, unless he suddenly discovers shot-making, in which case, whatever, do your thing. And I think we can allow that to happen with this roster.

And yeah, I'm hopeful we'll see something from Gradey. Or it could be from Walter, or RJ, I'm honestly not that picky. We've got some interesting players who could potentially elevate, and it would be nice to see it this year. Or, if we're HYSTERICALLY lucky, they all improve and we're spoiled for choice and have to make a move to clear space and cap and still get left with good stuff, heh.

You are harsh with Scottie! Embrace defensive PF? Asking him to shoot less? I actually think doing so would be bailing him out from his full potential. I just want him to stop taking all those 3 though
One play that made me even more excited about Gradey is actually a defensive play on Kyrie; sticking with him and shocking Kyrie. That Kid has a chance to be really special with added stamina and strength.
We need to know how those players (like IQ) handle the playoff pressure together, to start clearing space and cap. We just cant wait another year.

Scottie at 15-16 shots a game is fine.

Scottie shooting 4-5 threes a game is fine. But the type of threes has to dramatically change.
Scottie needs to get way more catch and shoot opportunities versus trying to create his own shot (and he should get them)

Defense should absolutely be his top priority, but being a better screener should also be on the agenda. He should be an absolute monster as a roll man, but he has not embraced that roll.

And Gradey and the second year guys are definitely the X factor for our success. If one of them takes that next leap to being a viable starter then we are rolling.

[tsherkin]

Yeah Scotties game is not the scorer on the team....We now have Ingram for that job....I think we need one more big time scorer on the level of Ingram....If IQ/Barrett or someone else can become that....Perfect...Barnes needs to be in the role where he scores off hustle points, wide open looks....When he tries to be the go to guy it does not work out for him...

Another "big time" scorer would be nice, but I think a more reasonable and attainable approach is to look for a more mid-volume guy who can slash and score efficiently from the point. And when I say "efficiently," I mean "at league average," because obviously more than that, you pay top dollar. Someone who can maybe score 15-18 ppg and create rim pressure and pen-pitch passes. Like, if Quick was literally any good at all at applying pressure with drives and shots around the rim, he'd be it. Or, for that matter, if RJ can get his efficiency up enough to hover within a half-percent or so of league-average, that'd might help.

I don't think we need another volume guy for now, I think we need to have more diverse options on offense. It's sort of like Denver, not that we are at their level. They blow donkeys at dribble penetration. Their best option was whatever's left of Russell Westbrook, right, and it really showed in the playoffs. On a much lesser scale, because our offensive ceiling is well below theirs for obvious reasons, we experience a similar issue.

[tsherkin]

Scottie at 15-16 shots a game is fine.

Scottie shooting 4-5 threes a game is fine.

Mmm. I don't think either of those things are fine if he plays anything like he has the past four years. Even in 2024, that wasn't good, and that's as good as he's ever been. We need to prioritize other guys on offense. And we didn't have Quick for almost 50 games, so between him and BI, both should be ahead of Scottie in the pecking order and knocking down his volume because both are substantially better as scoring weapons and shooters. That should just be a natural adjustment.

Now, if Scottie gets back to attacking the O-boards a little harder and picks up a couple extra shots that way, so be it. That would be delightful.

Defense should absolutely be his top priority, but being a better screener should also be on the agenda. He should be an absolute monster as a roll man, but he has not embraced that roll.

10000000% this, though. He is built to set gnarly screens, and he really needs to get the most out of those shoulders. It is an area of significant potential for him, and a major difference with CMB which is helping me try to come around on that pick (among other things).

And Gradey and the second year guys are definitely the X factor for our success. If one of them takes that next leap to being a viable starter then we are rolling.

Yes, if any of the kids gives us a strong season, the ceiling we have for performance this year changes pretty noticeably, I think.

[S.W.A.N]

Scottie at 15-16 shots a game is fine.

Scottie shooting 4-5 threes a game is fine.

Mmm. I don't think either of those things are fine if he plays anything like he has the past four years. Even in 2024, that wasn't good, and that's as good as he's ever been. We need to prioritize other guys on offense. And we didn't have Quick for almost 50 games, so between him and BI, both should be ahead of Scottie in the pecking order and knocking down his volume because both are substantially better as scoring weapons and shooters. That should just be a natural adjustment.

Now, if Scottie gets back to attacking the O-boards a little harder and picks up a couple extra shots that way, so be it. That would be delightful.

Defense should absolutely be his top priority, but being a better screener should also be on the agenda. He should be an absolute monster as a roll man, but he has not embraced that roll.

10000000% this, though. He is built to set gnarly screens, and he really needs to get the most out of those shoulders. It is an area of significant potential for him, and a major difference with CMB which is helping me try to come around on that pick (among other things).

And Gradey and the second year guys are definitely the X factor for our success. If one of them takes that next leap to being a viable starter then we are rolling.

Yes, if any of the kids gives us a strong season, the ceiling we have for performance this year changes pretty noticeably, I think.

I mostly agree with you. I just think that the last 4 years won't be like this year. I do think that having full time Quick and BI will change the types of shots he's getting in a fairly substantial way. So I think that keeping the same number of shots while redistributing they type of shots (catch and shoot and crashing the rim instead of pull up threes and mid-range stepbacks) will have a very high impact on his % and value as a play finisher

[tsherkin]

I mostly agree with you. I just think that the last 4 years won't be like this year. I do think that having full time Quick and BI will change the types of shots he's getting in a fairly substantial way. So I think that keeping the same number of shots while redistributing they type of shots (catch and shoot and crashing the rim instead of pull up threes and mid-range stepbacks) will have a very high impact on his % and value as a play finisher

I am hopeful that the improved spacing will help, I just don't have any faith in Scottie's range. What MIGHT change is his ability to get all the way to the rim, which would be helpful, because he alternates between being just under league-average and a few percent over it inside the RA. If he has another of those 70%+ years with an improved volume at the basket, that alone would be pretty beefy for his scoring efficiency, even if he still sucks from 3.

And we should have space to reduce his 3pt volume and run him more as a 4 than as a perimeter guy, even if it costs a bit of his playmaking, because we have Quick back. And whilst IQ isn't a brilliant playmaker and does his best a little more off-ball, they can share between one another and BI as far as initiating the offense, I think, with Scottie probably sparking the break off his DRBs a fair bit.

[Tripod]

I mostly agree with you. I just think that the last 4 years won't be like this year. I do think that having full time Quick and BI will change the types of shots he's getting in a fairly substantial way. So I think that keeping the same number of shots while redistributing they type of shots (catch and shoot and crashing the rim instead of pull up threes and mid-range stepbacks) will have a very high impact on his % and value as a play finisher

I am hopeful that the improved spacing will help, I just don't have any faith in Scottie's range. What MIGHT change is his ability to get all the way to the rim, which would be helpful, because he alternates between being just under league-average and a few percent over it inside the RA. If he has another of those 70%+ years with an improved volume at the basket, that alone would be pretty beefy for his scoring efficiency, even if he still sucks from 3.

And we should have space to reduce his 3pt volume and run him more as a 4 than as a perimeter guy, even if it costs a bit of his playmaking, because we have Quick back. And whilst IQ isn't a brilliant playmaker and does his best a little more off-ball, they can share between one another and BI as far as initiating the offense, I think, with Scottie probably sparking the break off his DRBs a fair bit.

We all have seen Barnes take over 4th Q's in the past. And when that has happened, it hasn't been from taking 3's. It's from getting the ball passed to him in the post and him aggressively trying to score.

For me, the hope is having BI means he can focus on being a beast defensively and he can take some offensive possessions off.

But if our top 5 guys all start, there should be a mismatch somewhere and we just need to exploit it over and over. And it should change each game depending on the opponent. If they remain unselfish, we can do damage, imo. The Pacers don't care who scores and neither should we. Any given night any other 4 could lead us in scoring. That's a good thing.

[Thaddy]

You win the NBA by having 3-4 guys getting paid big contracts. 1-2 solid role players around 20M. Then you have an upcoming young prospect that is waiting on a big deal.

We got Barnes, IQ, Ingram and RJ (probably off loaded for smaller contract in the 20M territory). Then we got Poeltl as our solid vet in the 20M range.

The best part is we have CMB, Dick, Walter, Shead, Chomche, Mogbo, Martin, Hepburn, and Agbaji. We just need one of them to breakout and we will have a team with 3-4 all star worthy players.

We have all the ingredients to be a healthy team. The only other factor is health. We have to play Dick, Walter, Agbaji and CMB enough that Ingram, Poeltl, and IQ are rested.

CMB
Barnes
Walter or Mogbo
Dick or Agbaji
Shead

This should be one of our most used line ups. Mogbo and Agbaji are going to end up being the odd men out.

I predict that CMB, Dick, and Walter all perform well. I think Agbaji had a good year and it was an outlier. I'd try to trade him now for a young big like Holmes thats cost controlled.