2026 NBA Draft Thread.....

[tontoz]

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[The Consiglieri]

I know, it's more my anxiety at getting ----ed than anything else, as a Wizards fan/victim, I've always assumed, whatever is the worst case scenario, it's always gonna happen, and usually it does. It's odd to have a FO that challenges that assumption.

I have a curious and thoroughly unfounded optimism about this franchise that suggests that when it all turns around we are going to have a supernova of a team and it will be utterly enjoyable to watch them win for a sustained period of time. The karma bank of this longsuffering fanbase is strong. It manifests in speculative fiction scenarios that put a positive spin on the happenstance.

So, like, things like, what if falling to #6 was the best thing that could happen to this franchise? What if landing a top pick in this draft had allowed us to be good enough that we missed out on next years draft, in a year when teams like the Pacers or Bucks could implode and be forced to tank. In the East where simply trying hard may be good enough to win. With young motivated players who have been steadily putting in offseason work on their fixable flaws.

Better to the extent that we might win a chunk more games simply by replacing the Kuzma + Poole minutes our line-up with Kyshawn + Bub alone. We saw how playing Champagnie instead of Kuzma added to our win total.

(Nevermind replacing Brogdon on the roster with CJ McCollum. We might salvage a few losses by starting the year with Olynyk instead of Valanciunas, but might win a few more games based on the improvement of Sarr).

Would you rather have Flagg this year playing all the Kuzma minutes? Only to watch PHX win the lotto next year, while our #9 pick went to New York. Is Flagg alone better than Tre + Dybantsa? Tre + Boozer?

Similarly. What if missing on Ace was the right move, in that the best players in the next 2 drafts are first option scorers who play a similar style/position. As much as I wanted Ace, we saved assets by not spending to move up, and even in my own evaluations had to nod to the idea that potentially he had a bit of Nick Young in his make-up. Where situation recognition and processing are not a strength. I figured his considerable talent could make up the difference, but as far as team play we might see a coach benching him at times in his career in key late game situations if they didn't trust his decision making and focus. That he may not reach his considerable top end potential, since the best players combine both BBIQ with all-world talent. Shrug. Dunno.

Whereas with Tre Johnson, you get the read that he will eventually be as good as his talent allows him to be. In Tre Johnson we have a key piece that slots in next to any player. A designated gunner who is as good off the ball as he is with the ball. Granted his defense is not a strength, but he is bright enough, long enough, and athletic enough that it could be if that becomes a focus. That he is a gym rat who has gotten to this level due to work ethic and an instinctive understanding of the game. With good coaching staff and physical trainers he can improve on his defense and strength to score through contact. A low-ego player who will make the team around him better and prove a high value asset his entire career rather than requiring that the right team be built around him to minimize any shortfall.

I love that the kid is beaming that he got selected here. I love that Ace was hoping to land here. I love that we are building a locker room and workplace that fosters young talents. That we have self-motivated players who love the game and want to work on the craft. Both Tre and Key have said they kinda enjoy having no life outside of basketball. That they enjoy the process of improvement. Will Riley has a similar demeanor. Vets say Bub ramps up the competitive aspect of every practice by talking smack every minute on court. That will only help as the players face each other in practice and pick up games against each other all summer.

Anyway. Long way of saying I like the foundation we are building, and if it takes us a little longer to improve that's okay given that we figure to be cashing in on future swaps and extra picks over the next 5 or so drafts. Slow sustainable growth is how the Thunder were built. With interchangeable players and depth of skill + smarts. Top that off with WInger's 5th degree blackbelt skills in cap management, I feel like we are set up to potentially get good and stay good for a very long time. It just may take a minute.

Great arguments, no need to shrug, I was worried a bit about the Flagg angle as well, and was hoping to land Edgcombe, or Harper, wasn't a Flagg or bust, because I felt it was a 4 player draft, but I can concede that with more than one respected analyst lifting Tre into 3rd (presumably ahead of VJ) down the stretch, maybe it really was a 5 player draft, but then that does kind of beg the question, if Tre is that good, how much risk is there in landing him for our slotting?

But yeah, I appreciate your arguments, at this point, I'm primarily in a mode of trusting the FO, but not remotely trusting the league, or luck.

[Northwest Roddy]

Thanks Consiglieri. As a long term Bullets/Wiz fan, i also always expect the worst and somehow Ferry, Unseld, Grufeld/Tommy discovered even more abysmal ways to fail. You write long, detailed, well thought out, and intellectually honest cases on the realistic point of view. My left brain agrees with your analysis, but my right brain is with Doc and senses that Dawkins is setting us up for a supernova improvement. I have an odd and unjustified faith.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It's bound to happen that the Wizards will experience a turnaround.

If practice is competitive and the best players play to win, the Wizards are going to have to very deliberately tank.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Great arguments, no need to shrug, I was worried a bit about the Flagg angle as well, and was hoping to land Edgcombe, or Harper, wasn't a Flagg or bust, because I felt it was a 4 player draft, but I can concede that with more than one respected analyst lifting Tre into 3rd (presumably ahead of VJ) down the stretch, maybe it really was a 5 player draft, but then that does kind of beg the question, if Tre is that good, how much risk is there in landing him for our slotting?

But yeah, I appreciate your arguments, at this point, I'm primarily in a mode of trusting the FO, but not remotely trusting the league, or luck.

Tbh, I feel like it was a 4 player draft - those 4 players do not include Ace Bailey. Basically, it's hard not to link the antics he showed in the process to the fact that his team had him and another top 3 pick and they couldn't even make the tournament. Yes, the situation around him was a mess. But the situation around Tre was a mess too.

Bailey has the more obvious superstar upside, but at the same time, his archetype - the long shooting KD type that's switchable on D - feels like the Dirk archetype from the mid-late 00s where teams would blow high picks on players who fit the protoype but actually kind of sucked. You really gotta scout the prospect, not the archetype, especially since it's pretty easy to envision Tre as a superstar - elite shooter, tough-shot maker, long and while not 10/10 athleticism or even 9/10, 8/10 is more than good enough for high level shot creation (he's more athletic than Beal was at his peak. Hell, if he *doesn't* improve his ball-handling, I could see a Klay Thompson type career from him, and if he does, he could be more. But the floor is also much higher. Bailey's floor is basically a Wiggins-like "finally becomes a good player for another team" imo

We are in serious danger of loosing our pick .

We have a critical mass of young talent and serious vets that will definitely not loose us games. We saw this when we traded away out tank commander Kuz and we were suddenly respectable then we trade out back up tank commander Poole. We have too many vets who knows how to win and too much young talent. .

That's all good. But we might be loosing our draft pick unless we A, get it back or B make another story if tank moves.

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These guys figured how how to tank with an already all-star level SGA averaging 24-6-5 with good defense. We'll probably be fine. Especially since we're like, refusing to run with any real size (Ironically, I think Hartenstein will be a target for this team in a year or two once OKC can't afford to pay him - I think they have a mindset that they can trade for beef when they feel they have their core)

[tontoz]

Taking a look at the top picks for next year, Ament has surprised me. His skills look to be high level already. With his skills and length I think he could be a legit number 1 option.

He shot 42% from 3 in HS.

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[The Consiglieri]

Taking a look at the top picks for next year, Ament has surprised me. His skills look to be high level already. With his skills and length I think he could be a legit number 1 option.

He shot 42% from 3 in HS.

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What makes him pretty sneaky to me, is more the concerns with other guys, seems like the concerns with Dybantsa are largely defensive in nature, Boozer, I get a vibe more than anything, that people think he may max out in college, and so be a what you see is what you get guy (I imagine the 3 point thing could add more)....Ament is huge, and adding length, write ups seem to suggest he works on both sides of the ball, he and Peterson and Boozer seem the best fit for us, more than Dybantsa. That being said, if it's Dybantsa, I'm taking him and running, it's just in terms of fit, that the other 3 seem more natural to me, and yeah, Ament is a sneaky bet to pull a Dylan Harper and climb from 3rd and 4th rated, to locked in at 2 (or perhaps even better) by next June.

[tontoz]

I mentioned this guy in the trade thread but it belongs here. Jayden was a freshman at Arizona State this past season but was too young to declare. Looks like he could be a Ben Wallace type of center.

He tore his ACL in March. He is transferring to Kentucky. He could be an option if we get screwed in the lottery.

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[nate33]

I mentioned this guy in the trade thread but it belongs here. Jayden was a freshman at Arizona State this past season but was too young to declare. Looks like he could be a Ben Wallace type of center.

He tore his ACL in March. He is transferring to Kentucky. He could be an option if we get screwed in the lottery.

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He looks interesting, but not in the lottery. The guy was a 48% free throw shooter, and at just 6'-9", he won't be enough of a lob threat to concern a defense. So you're already playing 4 on 5 on offense with him in the lineup. And defensively, I love his shot blocking and steals, but he is merely a solid rebounder, not an elite one. I think he looks more like the next Precious Achiuwa than the next Ben Wallace.

[The Consiglieri]

I've seen him projected currently as high as 5 and as low as the later teens. He will have a decent chance of being a lottery pick, especially if he can recover in time to play in '26 (I can't see him being ready for the start of the college season but who knows?).

[nate33]

I've seen him projected currently as high as 5 and as low as the later teens. He will have a decent chance of being a lottery pick, especially if he can recover in time to play in '26 (I can't see him being ready for the start of the college season but who knows?).

For him to go in the lotto as an undersized guy with no offensive skill set, he will have to be a Colin Murray-Boyles tier defensive menace. And even that might not enough as CMB actually had some intriguing offensive skills as a passer and ball handler whereas I don't see anything Quintance can do offensively at the NBA level. That FT% really precludes him from being a high post big in the Bam/Okongwu mold. You've got to stick the midrange jumper for that to work.

He looks to me like a guy who will go in the late teens. I could see a good team with a drop center keeping Quintance as a situational backup for when they want to go with a switching defense.

[tontoz]

I mentioned this guy in the trade thread but it belongs here. Jayden was a freshman at Arizona State this past season but was too young to declare. Looks like he could be a Ben Wallace type of center.

He tore his ACL in March. He is transferring to Kentucky. He could be an option if we get screwed in the lottery.

Watch on YouTube

He looks interesting, but not in the lottery. The guy was a 48% free throw shooter, and at just 6'-9", he won't be enough of a lob threat to concern a defense. So you're already playing 4 on 5 on offense with him in the lineup. And defensively, I love his shot blocking and steals, but he is merely a solid rebounder, not an elite one. I think he looks more like the next Precious Achiuwa than the next Ben Wallace.

Precious was 19 before his freshman season started. Jayden is still 17 he turns 18 this Friday.

Catching lobs definitely isnt an issue for him. Google says he has a 7'5 wingspan.

[nate33]

I mentioned this guy in the trade thread but it belongs here. Jayden was a freshman at Arizona State this past season but was too young to declare. Looks like he could be a Ben Wallace type of center.

He tore his ACL in March. He is transferring to Kentucky. He could be an option if we get screwed in the lottery.

Watch on YouTube

He looks interesting, but not in the lottery. The guy was a 48% free throw shooter, and at just 6'-9", he won't be enough of a lob threat to concern a defense. So you're already playing 4 on 5 on offense with him in the lineup. And defensively, I love his shot blocking and steals, but he is merely a solid rebounder, not an elite one. I think he looks more like the next Precious Achiuwa than the next Ben Wallace.

Precious was 19 before his freshman season started. Jayden is still 17 he turns 18 this Friday.

Catching lobs definitely isnt an issue for him. Google says he has a 7'5 wingspan.

Fair point about Precious' age. But Precious put up significantly better numbers in his freshman year. Precious averaged 18.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 1.3 steals per 36. Quaintance averaged just 11.6 points, 9.7 boards, 2.8 blocks, 1.4 steals per 36 with much worse outside shooting indicators. He'd have to make a fairly big jump in his sophomore year to match Precious' freshman numbers.

I can't think of too many defense-bending lob threats who are 6'-9". I'm not saying he won't catch a few lobs now and then, but teams won't freak out about it like they do with Gafford, Allen or Zubac.

[tontoz]

Fair point about Precious' age. But Precious put up significantly better numbers in his freshman year. Precious averaged 18.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 1.3 steals per 36. Quaintance averaged just 11.6 points, 9.7 boards, 2.8 blocks, 1.4 steals per 36 with much worse outside shooting indicators. He'd have to make a fairly big jump in his sophomore year to match Precious' freshman numbers.

I can't think of too many defense-bending lob threats who are 6'-9". I'm not saying he won't catch a few lobs now and then, but teams won't freak out about it like they do with Gafford, Allen or Zubac.

Jayden had a higher BPM than precious, and a much higher DBPM. Frankly I am not that concerned about scoring from a center. I am much more interested in defense.

Standing reach is more important than just height. Precious has a standing reach of 9'.5 which is below average for a center. Gafford was 6'9 without shoes but his standing reach is 9'2.

Just a guy to keep an eye on.

[PaulinVA]

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[Frichuela]

According to this, The Wiz will have the 2nd worst record and Phoenix the fifth next season. This would give us very high odds for a top 4 pick.

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[closg00]

Guys, do you think the tanking this season will be worse than lasts?

[Rafael122]

Guys, do you think the tanking this season will be worse than lasts?

It really depends on how highly they view the top 5-6 prospects in this draft. We have an actual NBA roster, this is not a homer take, but we're 2 deep at every position with actual NBA players. I think they would want to be bad enough to keep the pick. My guess is McCollum, Smart and Middleton won't play back to backs this season and will get shipped off in February.

[PaulinVA]

"I could see a good team with a drop center keeping Quintance as a situational backup for when they want to go with a switching defense..."

So when this guy's in his 30s and his team is deciding whether to extend him, will they ask themselves "Should old Quintance be re-signed?"

[closg00]

Utah is projected to win the tank battle, with no front court, I think we can take them…but a lot of good it did us last year

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