Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[HomoSapien]

I would be surprised if Giddey ended up being a "pumpkin". At the very least, he is always going to be able to rebound and get assists, and those utility players often find a way to be useful.

Separately, I am surprised how many people want him to take the QO. That would cast a big lull over the upcoming season and we should be trying to build on last season's positive play. Also, we aren't getting anywhere if we keep losing good players/assets for next to nothing. Giddey's play post All-Star break was remarkable. We need to find a way for him to do something close to that for an entire season. Even if you don't believe in him, a guy putting up those numbers will have significant trade value. Might as well let him pump up the numbers in a system that is built for his skillset, while also letting him inflate the numbers of the rest of our guys.

[Peelboy]

Players like Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, C.J. McCollum, Jordan Poole and Immanuel Quickley make the same money. Michael Porter Jr and Brandon Ingram make $8M more. Giddey has a reasonable argument to get that money.

I mean I think you just named a huge group of guys that people would say "That's a bad contract" about, so I don't know much happier that makes me feel. The ones you don't feel are bad contracts right now are guys that you still view have a lot of potential to be two way players if their offense continues to grow and still are concerned that they'll be bad contracts if it doesn't happen.

I mean at some point, if you have a large group of players you think are all "bad contracts," then.....those aren't bad contracts, they're market rate?
$30M makes Josh the 60th highest paid player in the league for 2025-26 per hoopshype (https://hoopshype.com/salaries/players/).

So about the level of 3d man on a good team or 2d on a mediocre team. That seems.....right to me? Give what he's demonstrated and that he's 23 which suggests there's additional development there to be had (whether the Bulls can achieve that being debatable)?

I wouldn't go much higher, and I'd love him at $25-$28, but I'm not considering $30M as an albatross. But I've been wrong before.

EDIT: I'll also add that signing Josh to $30M now doesn't really kill the Bulls near term because they don't have great use for that cap space in the next 1-2 years. FAs aren't flocking here, and if a star wants a trade, hard to believe they're angling for Bulls (and if they are, likely Josh is in the deal for salaries). If you do a 4 yr deal, then you're really looking at the team considering potential use of those cap resources in yrs 3/4, at which point cap has gone up and he's more affordable.

[nomorezorro]

giddey as a passer/rebounder who makes $25-30m aav for five years is absolutely a pumpkin

part of the reason he's such a divisive player is because his skillset makes it very hard for him to occupy a "middle ground" as a role player. either he's good enough to be a lead ballhandler or he's a niche role player

[Stratmaster]

I don't think there is a team you can put around Giddey where he is a critical part of a good team. As soon as you put a superstar next to him, his strengths are vastly limited and weaknesses exposed, so I'm offering him a deal that pays him a bit more early when he'll be a more important player and gets him closer to role player money at the end, when if we have a good team that's exactly what he'll be.

I think this is a valid concern. I also think that because of the confined way AK is building this team, they do not have many shots of finding those budding superstars who would render Giddey useless. Whether it's the draft, trade or free agency, the probabilities look really low right now. So, not keeping him takes one of your already limited possibilities off the table.

I also think that if Giddey is mostly the player he showed post ASB, then he is a player who can play with stars. But of course if he's not, then yeah.

You guys made me thing. Here's where I come out. As a fan, it is uncomfortable having unfilled holes on our "future roster". When I think about what a contending roster has, I think about the following roles (multiple roles can be played by the same player):

Primary ball handler/distributor
True #1 scorer (i.e. a guy who can score 30ppg efficiently while facing double-teams)
A good #2 scorer (i.e. a guy who scores 20ppg efficiently and can score on double-teams)
A POA defender
A second ball handler
A rim protector
A 10 rebound per game gy
4 players who are above average 3pt shooters
3 players who are very good defenders

In my teambuilding view, you should start with the #1 scoring option because they are rare. Unless one of our new core has a very big uptick in scoring ability, that guy isn't on the team, which creates the big issue. We don't know what other roles our future #1 can fill and what we need to backfill. In most situations, the #1 option is also the primary ball handler/distributor, but we are checking that box with Giddey.

just an observation based on your first 4 criteria.

They traded away 2 guys who were #1 scorers by that criteria. At one point they were averaging 50+ ppg between the two of them on over .600 efficiency and both faced double-teams consistently. And most on here applauded them getting rid of them.

They traded away 2 elite point of attack defenders. In fairness, the two added up to 1 because they both missed so many games.

They had multiple players who could fill the 2nd ball-handler role, had they had the primary. One of those was traded.

And they made those trades right before and right after they finally brought in a primary ball handler/distributor.

While we have all been picking favorites, trashing players etc. it really comes down to this team never had a point guard, or a coach who knew how to deal with that (see Thibs in the Bulls years grabbing journeyman point guards and making it work). Now that they MIGHT (CAPS intended) have one, all their other talent is gone with no clear avenue to re-stock it.

But hey. We got a bunch of young guys. One of whom might someday, somewhere, amount to something. And we have Coby as the vet leader, right?

[Red Larrivee]

giddey as a passer/rebounder who makes $25-30m aav for five years is absolutely a pumpkin

part of the reason he's such a divisive player is because his skillset makes it very hard for him to occupy a "middle ground" as a role player. either he's good enough to be a lead ballhandler or he's a niche role player

Unfortunately, these are the risks you're confined to when you've built the team as AK has. There is a chance we overpay him, he regresses into a niche player and we're stuck with him. There is also a chance that he is the same player he showed after the LaVine trade and we let him walk into UFA next summer. Both are different nightmares.

[HomoSapien]

giddey as a passer/rebounder who makes $25-30m aav for five years is absolutely a pumpkin

part of the reason he's such a divisive player is because his skillset makes it very hard for him to occupy a "middle ground" as a role player. either he's good enough to be a lead ballhandler or he's a niche role player

Overpaid and pumpkin aren't the same thing. Pat is a pumpkin. There are many games where his contribution is zero. If you're wrong about Giddey, he is still going to be productive. Giddey, the role player, was basically operating at a 6th man level in terms of impact on a 57-win team. At 21.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Still beyond absurd to me that they’re taking the time to hardball with Giddey, but not with Pat last year.

Paid your 14th-man some starter bucks until 2030, but asking your primary ballhandler/designated leader to take about $2M more. I just don’t think that’s gonna work.

Can't/Won't fix one mistake by making another.

[rosenthall]

giddey as a passer/rebounder who makes $25-30m aav for five years is absolutely a pumpkin

part of the reason he's such a divisive player is because his skillset makes it very hard for him to occupy a "middle ground" as a role player. either he's good enough to be a lead ballhandler or he's a niche role player

I think this is true, but I think what pushes me towards Giddey is that I think the Bulls as a team are very well positioned to get the most out of him. The only thing that's stopping us is this hypothetical franchise player who could unseat him, but I have no idea how you project the team to acquire said player in its current state.

[rosenthall]

Still beyond absurd to me that they’re taking the time to hardball with Giddey, but not with Pat last year.

Paid your 14th-man some starter bucks until 2030, but asking your primary ballhandler/designated leader to take about $2M more. I just don’t think that’s gonna work.

I do believe that F’ing up contracts and overpaying scrubs has a net-negative effect on future deals. Agents and players are entitled to some feeling of their worth, and they know the Bulls have plenty cap-space to pay more than this current (dead) market. That’s why I personally think this might end in a stalemate… possible QO, or a 1-and-done deal. Or he’ll get what he wants.

AK traded his best asset for this guy, so Giddey’s agent also realizes they don’t want to lose him for nothing. It’s all a bit of a dead-end. AK is terrible at managing an NBA team.

The whole charade with Pat was just an egregious mistake from beginning-to-end. I actually get the impression that AK is compensating a little bit here to atone for past errors. Maybe of his own accord, or maybe just performatively to show to ownership that he's learned from his mistakes.

I think the behavior this time around is closer to ideal though, so I'm not complaining.

I do think that one unintended consequence of overpaying someone who turns into a pumpkin is that it makes subsequent salary negotiations more difficult for players that are better. I think Josh, Coby and Ayo are all going to index their contract negotiations to Pat, and it's going to make all of their contract negotiations more difficult than they needed to be.

[GoBlue72391]

Everyone wants him, he's only 23 and is constantly improving all whilst being on a bargain contract.

He isn't constantly improving.

Except for improving every season.

Good call.

He's improving at not improving.

[Stratmaster]

giddey as a passer/rebounder who makes $25-30m aav for five years is absolutely a pumpkin

part of the reason he's such a divisive player is because his skillset makes it very hard for him to occupy a "middle ground" as a role player. either he's good enough to be a lead ballhandler or he's a niche role player

Not picking on your post, just using it because it was the last example of Giddey skepticism.

I don't know what Giddey will end up being. But there is a lot more objective evidence pointing toward all-star than toward pumpkin.

Some interesting numbers. In his last 25 games of the season (Feb/Mar/Apr) he averaged very close to 20/10/10, on well over .600 (I think it would be around .627) TS% efficiency. He averaged over 5 FTA per game. He shot over 45% from 3. His ORTG of 124 would have been tied for best on the team looking at season stats.

We all know defense is difficult to quantify and I am sure someone has better analytics than this they can quote. But the idea that he is a sieve defensively does not appear well founded either. He had the best DRTG on the team, not only during that period, but for the entire season. He averaged 2.3 combined blocks/steals per game during that time, and 1.8 for the season. The 2.3 would be far better than any other player on the team. The 1.8 for the season tied him with Lonzo Ball as tops on the team for the season.

Those 25 games correspond EXACTLY with when his minutes played and usage jumped significantly. In other words, as soon as he had the opportunity to perform like an all-star, he did. I know 25 games is a small sample size, but it is really the only sample we have to judge him by. Much of this board anointed Coby White an all-star in a smaller sample size.

Oh, I almost forgot. The Bulls were 12-3 in the last 15 games Giddey played. Granted a few of those wins were pretty easy due to circumstances. But you can't say he was putting up empty numbers.

People are talking about Coby White getting 25-30 million a season. Josh Giddey should make more than Coby White. I think $25 mil a year is what it will take. Could it end up being a bust? Maybe . It's why I like Doug and one other poster's suggestion that it be front loaded as much as possible. Is it a price the Bulls absolutely have to pay? Yes. You finally have a player who MIGHT be the PG you were missing while you wasted and then traded away great talent. You can't just let him go.

People say Giddey has no leverage. He has very little due to the lack of funds out there available from other teams. But the Bulls can't really afford to let him walk either. Both sides have an incentive to settle in that 25 mil range.

[Stratmaster]

He isn't constantly improving.

Except for improving every season.

Good call.

He's improving at not improving.

LOL. I read this post without any context (can't tell what player is being discussed) and thought the debate had to be about Coby White. Had to go back a few pages to find the original discussion.

Yes Blue...you have to be careful with sarcasm on here. They have that green font thing and apparently it is necessary!

[GoBlue72391]

giddey as a passer/rebounder who makes $25-30m aav for five years is absolutely a pumpkin

part of the reason he's such a divisive player is because his skillset makes it very hard for him to occupy a "middle ground" as a role player. either he's good enough to be a lead ballhandler or he's a niche role player

Overpaid and pumpkin aren't the same thing. Pat is a pumpkin. There are many games where his contribution is zero. If you're wrong about Giddey, he is still going to be productive. Giddey, the role player, was basically operating at a 6th man level in terms of impact on a 57-win team. At 21.

But $25-30M for that kind of guy is crazy, though, if he reverts back to that. It would be really ugly.

[ThisGuyFawkes]

Pay the kid. He’s our best shot of success, even if that’s due to our completely inept front office. Giddey, White, and Buzelis all have all-star potential. We need to take some swings on our young talent that have showed that potential in a meaningful way.

We’re not signing or trading for a superstar. Our only option is to find something organically and this is our only hope.

$30M AAV isn’t terrible at all for a young kid who has already showed that he can be the catalyst on a successful team.


And like other posters have said, Giddey can pump his stats in our system while also improving the value of others around him. And it’s not even just for trade value. If he does that, it can actually lead to winning basketball.

[mack2354]

I'm cool with hardballing him. The Thunder benched him in the playoffs. When we needed him the most in our play-in game, he couldn't deliver. I'm not paying a guy 30-40 million to be a regular season warrior. Giddey needs to prove he is effective in the games that matter.

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[dougthonus]

You guys made me thing. Here's where I come out. As a fan, it is uncomfortable having unfilled holes on our "future roster". When I think about what a contending roster has, I think about the following roles (multiple roles can be played by the same player):

Primary ball handler/distributor
True #1 scorer (i.e. a guy who can score 30ppg efficiently while facing double-teams)
A good #2 scorer (i.e. a guy who scores 20ppg efficiently and can score on double-teams)
A POA defender
A second ball handler
A rim protector
A 10 rebound per game gy
4 players who are above average 3pt shooters
3 players who are very good defenders

In my teambuilding view, you should start with the #1 scoring option because they are rare. Unless one of our new core has a very big uptick in scoring ability, that guy isn't on the team, which creates the big issue. We don't know what other roles our future #1 can fill and what we need to backfill. In most situations, the #1 option is also the primary ball handler/distributor, but we are checking that box with Giddey.

Basically the primary scorer is most frequently often the primary ball handler too. How many off-ball primary scorers are there? The other problem is you need to fit all of those skills into five bodies, so a guy who isn't a shooter or a defender or a scorer takes too much off the table to be on that really good team.

So you have to believe that Giddey is going to become a shooter or a scorer, and if you look at the last 30 games and believe that, then I think that is defensible for sure, but I don't believe it, and I think not believing it is also defensible.

[boundbymusic]

Pay the kid. He’s our best shot of success, even if that’s due to our completely inept front office. Giddey, White, and Buzelis all have all-star potential. We need to take some swings on our young talent that have showed that potential in a meaningful way.

We’re not signing or trading for a superstar. Our only option is to find something organically and this is our only hope.

$30M AAV isn’t terrible at all for a young kid who has already showed that he can be the catalyst on a successful team.


And like other posters have said, Giddey can pump his stats in our system while also improving the value of others around him. And it’s not even just for trade value. If he does that, it can actually lead to winning basketball.

Was pretty agnostic about whether to pay him or not but this does make a valid argument....if you don't trust AKME (or if Reinsdorf doesn't have the mettle) to build a contender through the draft you have to hope they luck into a contender from a young guy taking a star turn. Outside of Matas, Giddey is probably the best bet on the roster.

[kodo]

giddey as a passer/rebounder who makes $25-30m aav for five years is absolutely a pumpkin

part of the reason he's such a divisive player is because his skillset makes it very hard for him to occupy a "middle ground" as a role player. either he's good enough to be a lead ballhandler or he's a niche role player

Overpaid and pumpkin aren't the same thing. Pat is a pumpkin. There are many games where his contribution is zero. If you're wrong about Giddey, he is still going to be productive. Giddey, the role player, was basically operating at a 6th man level in terms of impact on a 57-win team. At 21.

But $25-30M for that kind of guy is crazy, though, if he reverts back to that. It would be really ugly.

$25M is what Quentin Grimes wants as a guard, 14 ppg 3 apg this season, 10 ppg 2 apg career.
As a forward, Miles Bridges & Kuzma make $25m.

$25M = low end vet starter. Terry Rozier, Bruce Brown, Tobias Harris, KCP, etc..

was basically operating at a 6th man level in terms of impact on a 57-win team.

Impact-wise he had a +8.2 net rating with OKC which was less than 1 point per 100 below Chet & Jalen Williams. SGA was the clear leader at +11 but all three of Chet/Jalen/Giddey were +8 to +9. +/- tells the same story. SGA ahead at +8.2 but all three of Chet/Jalen/Giddey were +4.7 to +5.4.

A +8.2 net rating is top tier in the league. Look up Haliburton & Siakam's net rating, +3.5 and +5.5. Joker is +10.

[dougthonus]

I think it's very difficult to play Giddey-ball on a championship contender, but I think you can be a winning team and win a playoff series with him as your primary distributor. I have the opinion that you shouldn't make choices around players solely based on the criteria on whether or not their roles project cleanly to a championship contender. I'm okay with paying Giddey as someone who gets us from point A to point B for where the team is currently at.

I am okay with that, but I see no reason to pay him more than the offers I stated. I don't think he meaningfully moves wins. If he leaves next year, it opens 30M in extra cap room we won't be paying him to get a replacement, and I think we can get a viable replacement instead.

Vuc had an active trade market that deadline. We had to include Wendell Carter Jr as the cherry on top to get the deal done. Even if we hadn't made the trade, someone would have put together a palatable offer for him.

Vuc made an All-Star game that year and the team was well positioned to maximize his success. We're in the same position as Giddey.

FWIW, I understand people who think Giddey is just going to be really good and want to gamble on his continued improvement. I don't believe in it, but I acknowledge the possibility that I could be dead wrong on this one.

I would not go down this path of thinking "well maybe he can play us into mediocre then we can trade him later", we could just not sign him, compete for a lotto pick in an absolutely stacked draft class, move Coby/Ayo now, and rebuild around Matas, Noah, hopefully an elite prospect in 2026, whatever picks we can get for Coby/Ayo (possibly Giddey in a S&T) and then also have 120M in cap room next year to bring in other players.

The big swing factor here is that you will be able to literally take Giddey's market value deal and turn it into any market value player you want next year. This isn't a bird rights trap where if you don't sign Giddey you don't have a meaningful way to reallocate the money.

[dougthonus]

I've come to the conclusion that I'd offer these three contracts to Giddey:

1: 5/125 - Structured descending starting at 29M (ends at about 20M)
2: 3/70 - Structured descending starting at 25.5M
3: Qualifying offer

The three year deal requires him to make 29.5M AAV next year on the QO to break even, so is a good hedge if he wants to hit FA quickly vs the risks he takes on the QO.

The five year deal requires he makes about 28M AAV to beat, but offers a much bigger hedge.

If he wants the QO, go for it. I just can't get over the fact that at the end of the day, I think Giddey is not a top 3 player on a good team regardless of his stats. Vuc of point guards, floor raiser, ceiling lowerer, and as tempting as it is to get sucked into that, I don't want to pay for it.

If I am Giddey I take #1 and negotiate a player option in year 5.

I'd probably fold on the PO if that's what got the deal done.