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Yeezus_ wrote:These conversations about five years out are just for content. No one knows whats happening 5 years from now. Even one year out has uncertainty.
ConSarnit wrote:DG88 wrote:ConSarnit wrote:
I guess it’s how you define bleak. I’d say it’s somewhat bleak in the sense that the FO seems set on building a 45 win team year after year. There is nothing wrong with 45 wins but at some point we have to ask ourselves how do we go from 45 to 55 wins? I don’t really see the upside of this current team. Barnes progress has stalled. Ingram is a borderline all-star. We can talk about our ability to reset but our current method of “reset” has been to acquire guys like IQ and RJ, who aren’t exactly high ceiling guys. Then we’ve doubled down on Poeltl (a fine player) who is not a great fit with Barnes or our recent lotto pick (CMB). It seems like we’re never going to full on tank as a rebuild method.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable if we wake up 4 years from now and we’re still in the same spot we are now. We currently lack any high end upside and the guy who was supposed to help us get our next star because of how well respected around the league he was (Masai) is no longer here.
Are we in the worst spot? Absolutely not. We can pivot but the pivots haven’t exactly engulfed us in upside (OG and Siakam for Ingram, IQ and RJ seems like a very lateral move at the moment). The upside isn’t all that high at the moment. I don’t Simmons and Russilo’s opinions are that controversial outside of Raptors homerdom.
Here's the last 5 years:
20/21: 27-45 (Tampa Tank)
21/22: 48-34
22/23: 41-41
23/24: 25-57
24/25: 30-52
The only time we were building a team with a "45" win ceiling were post Tampa trying to develop and be competitive. After that we've essentially been tanking for 2 years and acquiring young pieces and young vet talent along the way. It's only going into this season that we're trying to see results in the W column. This team hasn't been healthy in 2 years and we haven't see what BI looks like in the lineup. During the DeRozan and Lowry years we didn't know how we'd become a 50+ win team, but through internal growth and talent acquisition we got there. Let this thing breathe and see.
22/23: traded for Poeltl (win-now move)Mistake in timing but not in value. We should’ve tanked for wemby.
22/23 off season: re-signed Poeltl, signed Schroder. We were clearly trying to winWe got screwed by Fred leaving and if we didn’t sign Schroeder, we had no starting point guard.
23/24: started off trying to win. Traded OG for RJ and IQ which was clearly not a tank driven moveWe traded OG because we didn’t want to pay him the near max he wanted and we bet on upside.
Our “tanking” has 100% been driven because of injury or just plain lack of ability. We have not made clear tear it down type moves. If we have been tanking for 2 years we’ve been doing the worst job of it. Two tanking years where we would have ended up with the 8th and 9th picks. We were very clearly not tanking to begin the 23/24 season where we owed our 1st to SAS. The anti-tank contingent has repeatedly claimed we would have won more games last season if not for injury. Any tank we have been involved in was forced upon us and not by design.
Unless you see someone like JKW or CMB taking off how does this team reach the next level? We know what a team with Ingram as its best scorer looks like. We know what type of players IQ/RJ/Poeltl are. Barnes development has flatlined on offense. At some point you can look at the pieces of a team and see what their potential is. None of the current core are going to get us to contender level. I do not believe we need a wait and see approach to predict this team’s ceiling, at least as far as any of our established players go.
tecumseh18 wrote:arbsn wrote:It's really hard to argue against the fact that the Raptors are dog water and have been managed terribly by Masai and Co the last 3-4 years.
....
It's only "hard to argue" with this because I've got deadlines, and this stuff has been litigated to death.
Suffice it to say I disagree with you, sir.
Merit wrote:ConSarnit wrote:DG88 wrote:
Here's the last 5 years:
20/21: 27-45 (Tampa Tank)
21/22: 48-34
22/23: 41-41
23/24: 25-57
24/25: 30-52
The only time we were building a team with a "45" win ceiling were post Tampa trying to develop and be competitive. After that we've essentially been tanking for 2 years and acquiring young pieces and young vet talent along the way. It's only going into this season that we're trying to see results in the W column. This team hasn't been healthy in 2 years and we haven't see what BI looks like in the lineup. During the DeRozan and Lowry years we didn't know how we'd become a 50+ win team, but through internal growth and talent acquisition we got there. Let this thing breathe and see.
22/23: traded for Poeltl (win-now move)Mistake in timing but not in value. We should’ve tanked for wemby.
22/23 off season: re-signed Poeltl, signed Schroder. We were clearly trying to winWe got screwed by Fred leaving and if we didn’t sign Schroeder, we had no starting point guard.
23/24: started off trying to win. Traded OG for RJ and IQ which was clearly not a tank driven moveWe traded OG because we didn’t want to pay him the near max he wanted and we bet on upside.
Our “tanking” has 100% been driven because of injury or just plain lack of ability. We have not made clear tear it down type moves. If we have been tanking for 2 years we’ve been doing the worst job of it. Two tanking years where we would have ended up with the 8th and 9th picks. We were very clearly not tanking to begin the 23/24 season where we owed our 1st to SAS. The anti-tank contingent has repeatedly claimed we would have won more games last season if not for injury. Any tank we have been involved in was forced upon us and not by design.
Unless you see someone like JKW or CMB taking off how does this team reach the next level? We know what a team with Ingram as its best scorer looks like. We know what type of players IQ/RJ/Poeltl are. Barnes development has flatlined on offense. At some point you can look at the pieces of a team and see what their potential is. None of the current core are going to get us to contender level. I do not believe we need a wait and see approach to predict this team’s ceiling, at least as far as any of our established players go.
We don’t know how to predict chemistry nor do we know how to predict changes to systems, nor do we know how people have improved over time. I implore you to be patient. We have added a 5 win player in Ingram to a team that tanked last year but could easily have been .500. I remain optimistic.
ConSarnit wrote:Merit wrote:ConSarnit wrote:
22/23: traded for Poeltl (win-now move)
22/23 off season: re-signed Poeltl, signed Schroder. We were clearly trying to win
23/24: started off trying to win. Traded OG for RJ and IQ which was clearly not a tank driven move
Our “tanking” has 100% been driven because of injury or just plain lack of ability. We have not made clear tear it down type moves. If we have been tanking for 2 years we’ve been doing the worst job of it. Two tanking years where we would have ended up with the 8th and 9th picks. We were very clearly not tanking to begin the 23/24 season where we owed our 1st to SAS. The anti-tank contingent has repeatedly claimed we would have won more games last season if not for injury. Any tank we have been involved in was forced upon us and not by design.
Unless you see someone like JKW or CMB taking off how does this team reach the next level? We know what a team with Ingram as its best scorer looks like. We know what type of players IQ/RJ/Poeltl are. Barnes development has flatlined on offense. At some point you can look at the pieces of a team and see what their potential is. None of the current core are going to get us to contender level. I do not believe we need a wait and see approach to predict this team’s ceiling, at least as far as any of our established players go.
We don’t know how to predict chemistry nor do we know how to predict changes to systems, nor do we know how people have improved over time. I implore you to be patient. We have added a 5 win player in Ingram to a team that tanked last year but could easily have been .500. I remain optimistic.
I admire your optimism but isn't part of being this board trying to predict future outcomes? I'm not one to be optimistic about a potential 45 win team. I really only care about getting back into title contention and I don't see anything at the moment that implies we're getting back there any time soon.
We know what type of system we have. We know how the league operates. As such we can look at our roster and see where we might struggle. We effectively know what all of our starters will be. They are all in season 5 or beyond of their careers. They aren't young prospects anymore. Where do you think this team's upside is? It isn't offense given our lack of spacing or overall efficiency from our top scorers. It isn't defense if we're starting IQ/RJ/BI. How does this team become "really good"?
DG88 wrote:So the season we traded for Poeltl, which I already said was one of the seasons we were trying to be competitive and develop. After trading for Poeltl are you just going to let him walk for nothing? Once Pascal and OG we're traded yes we were tanking. Players were not rushed back from injury or sat games. It was all about development for the past 2 seasons not Playoffs or even Play-In.
Reaching the next level will take internal growth and talent acquisition to get to the next level. The landscape of the NBA is different now than it was during the Stern era. 50-60 wins doesn't guarantee Conference Finals or NBA Finals. We've seen that over these last 5 years, primarily in the East. I think we eventually get there but moves will have to be made for that to happen.
Making business decisions rather than ones to really do a mini-rebuild. 
ConSarnit wrote:It feels like most posters here didn’t listen to the podcast. They were talking about 5 teams with the bleakest future in each conference. They weren’t saying we had the 3rd bleakest future in the league.
If the question is “who has the top 5 bleakest futures in the East” then we are in that conversation.
ConSarnit wrote:tecumseh18 wrote:arbsn wrote:It's really hard to argue against the fact that the Raptors are dog water and have been managed terribly by Masai and Co the last 3-4 years.
....
It's only "hard to argue" with this because I've got deadlines, and this stuff has been litigated to death.
Suffice it to say I disagree with you, sir.
I'd actually like to hear your argument. In the past 3 years 7 teams have failed to win 100 combined games. We are one of those 7. Imagine I told you we missed the playoffs 3 years in a row and our clear best prospect was still Barnes, who was drafted in 2021. Our highest draft pick was 9th after missing the playoffs 3 years in a row.
If you think we haven't been poorly managed over the past 3 years you're not being objective. Our overall record and lack of high upside prospects are the proof. Not to mention waiting too long to move off our vets which resulted in sub-par returns (compared to the rest of the league) or flat out losing them for nothing (FVV).
ConSarnit wrote:Merit wrote:ConSarnit wrote:
22/23: traded for Poeltl (win-now move)
22/23 off season: re-signed Poeltl, signed Schroder. We were clearly trying to win
23/24: started off trying to win. Traded OG for RJ and IQ which was clearly not a tank driven move
Our “tanking” has 100% been driven because of injury or just plain lack of ability. We have not made clear tear it down type moves. If we have been tanking for 2 years we’ve been doing the worst job of it. Two tanking years where we would have ended up with the 8th and 9th picks. We were very clearly not tanking to begin the 23/24 season where we owed our 1st to SAS. The anti-tank contingent has repeatedly claimed we would have won more games last season if not for injury. Any tank we have been involved in was forced upon us and not by design.
Unless you see someone like JKW or CMB taking off how does this team reach the next level? We know what a team with Ingram as its best scorer looks like. We know what type of players IQ/RJ/Poeltl are. Barnes development has flatlined on offense. At some point you can look at the pieces of a team and see what their potential is. None of the current core are going to get us to contender level. I do not believe we need a wait and see approach to predict this team’s ceiling, at least as far as any of our established players go.
We don’t know how to predict chemistry nor do we know how to predict changes to systems, nor do we know how people have improved over time. I implore you to be patient. We have added a 5 win player in Ingram to a team that tanked last year but could easily have been .500. I remain optimistic.
I admire your optimism but isn't part of being this board trying to predict future outcomes? I'm not one to be optimistic about a potential 45 win team. I really only care about getting back into title contention and I don't see anything at the moment that implies we're getting back there any time soon.
We know what type of system we have. We know how the league operates. As such we can look at our roster and see where we might struggle. We effectively know what all of our starters will be. They are all in season 5 or beyond of their careers. They aren't young prospects anymore. Where do you think this team's upside is? It isn't offense given our lack of spacing or overall efficiency from our top scorers. It isn't defense if we're starting IQ/RJ/BI. How does this team become "really good"?
JB7 wrote:ConSarnit wrote:It feels like most posters here didn’t listen to the podcast. They were talking about 5 teams with the bleakest future in each conference. They weren’t saying we had the 3rd bleakest future in the league.
If the question is “who has the top 5 bleakest futures in the East” then we are in that conversation.
For one, Raps are definitely not in the top 5 bleakest future in the East, over say the next 4 years. But I don't even know how they missed the obvious candidate, the Sixers.
They did get lucky on the draft getting the 3rd overall pick (VJ), and Maxey is good, but that is two back court players. Hard to build teams around them, and the biggest anchor they have on the team are Embiid and PG3s contracts. Not only are those large contracts that are long, but they are immoveable in the near future. That is over $100M tied up in probably nothing over the next 3 seasons. Teams will only be interested in those contracts in the last year as an expiring deal, and at that point the Sixers will need them as expiring contracts.
gerrit4 wrote:I hate to say it, but these last few years really have reminded me of the BC era (minus his amazing first year). A lot of moves that I really liked in theory, that didn't really translate to winning. I supported most of the terrible BC moves at the time as well.
I don't blame our FO for selling late on Fred/Kyle/Pascal/OG/Gary. When you look at the "golden years" of the Masai era, it's not like he was batting 1.000. He made good moves and bad moves, but the good moves (and culture etc) always outweighed the bad. We could live with overpaying Demarre Carroll (and needing to attach a pick to offload him) because we had so much depth, and guys committed to winning.
I think that the biggest failure was that our FO has always seemed to be plugging holes (trading/swapping picks for Jakob/Thad, needing a PG in the OG trade, etc) and often creating more holes as a result.
But hey, I'm a homer. I actually really like where our roster is at, more or less. I like the depth, and I like the culture they're trying to bring in with defensive minded guys. I like that we have all of our picks. It feels like we're turning a corner.
Next season will likely be dictated by our luck with injuries. If we can get 60 games from Ingram and IQ (as well as Scottie, Jakob etc), I think this is a solid playoff team. But that's a big if.
raf1995 wrote:I just don’t think he has that kind of potential. I think we will regret not trading him for a haul in a few years when he’s a mid-tier starter with nice playmaking and defense and a shaky jumper.
ForeverTFC wrote:JB7 wrote:ConSarnit wrote:It feels like most posters here didn’t listen to the podcast. They were talking about 5 teams with the bleakest future in each conference. They weren’t saying we had the 3rd bleakest future in the league.
If the question is “who has the top 5 bleakest futures in the East” then we are in that conversation.
For one, Raps are definitely not in the top 5 bleakest future in the East, over say the next 4 years. But I don't even know how they missed the obvious candidate, the Sixers.
They did get lucky on the draft getting the 3rd overall pick (VJ), and Maxey is good, but that is two back court players. Hard to build teams around them, and the biggest anchor they have on the team are Embiid and PG3s contracts. Not only are those large contracts that are long, but they are immoveable in the near future. That is over $100M tied up in probably nothing over the next 3 seasons. Teams will only be interested in those contracts in the last year as an expiring deal, and at that point the Sixers will need them as expiring contracts.
Morey and Simmons are friends.
Dalek wrote:It was an interesting listen, and the thing that stuck out to me is the Bill S specification that the Ingram deal was possibly the reason why Masai was pushed out. I thought it was one of the most bizarre moves trading for an injured player and then re-upping the player for a huge deal without him even playing.
I don't think it was a Bobby idea, this was all Masai working with Rich Paul to get this done. Again, like in almost every case, who was Toronto going to be outbid for if they waited until the offseason? Ingram was injured and his value at his lowest, and we signed him to a max deal before he hit the open market.
They go on to mention that with these contracts: Barnes, Quickley, Barrett, Poeltl, and Ingram, you practically have immoveable deals, or you have trade options only if you add picks. It is kind of like the Kings being stuck with Demar and most of their roster.
Rusillo said he would prefer to have roster spots and not a lot of money invested unless it is a special player. It is worth considering that Barnes and none of this core is worth building around and instead we should be collecting picks and cheap deals.