Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[MrSparkle]

Personally, I see Utah going for Giddey now that they cleared cap.

It's not enough still- bulls would easily match.

There are various non-guaranteed contracts floating around the league. They have the capability to dump another $10M+, especially if they’re giving up prospects (like Cody).

[Red Larrivee]

If he's the player he was after the LaVine trade, he's one of the better contracts in the league on that salary. I don't think either outcome is more likely than the other. If you want him to prove it again, there's a chance he gets more expensive and our situation gets even worse.

Everything you said is true, except, I think it's WAY more likely at least some specific things aren't going to replicate such as shot 46% from three with completely broken form. I don't think there is any chance in hell that replicates over any meaningful sample size. Reverting to his 33%-35% from three average would put his TS% post all-star break at 57-58% (league average was 57.6%) instead of 62% (great).

If you had to guess Giddey's three point percentage next year, what is your guess? 46%? I'd guess 33-35% is significantly more likely to me. If you now have a league average scorer with very good passing, a lot of counting stats, but has negative gravity and is below average on defense, what is that worth to you?

For me, that's probably a role player. Anti-gravity guys are really, really hard to build a team around, especially if they are hurting you on defense.

I think it's realistic for him to hover around 47-48% FG% and 35-37% 3P%. He had 5 months this season where he hit those percentages or better. He had 4 months where his TS% was above league average. I think the aim should be 59-60%. If he does that, then I think that's about 85-90% of the player we saw after moving LaVine.

[Stratmaster]

I've come to the conclusion that I'd offer these three contracts to Giddey:

1: 5/125 - Structured descending starting at 29M (ends at about 20M)
2: 3/70 - Structured descending starting at 25.5M
3: Qualifying offer

The three year deal requires him to make 29.5M AAV next year on the QO to break even, so is a good hedge if he wants to hit FA quickly vs the risks he takes on the QO.

The five year deal requires he makes about 28M AAV to beat, but offers a much bigger hedge.

If he wants the QO, go for it. I just can't get over the fact that at the end of the day, I think Giddey is not a top 3 player on a good team regardless of his stats. Vuc of point guards, floor raiser, ceiling lowerer, and as tempting as it is to get sucked into that, I don't want to pay for it.

If I am Giddey I take #1 and negotiate a player option in year 5.

I'd probably fold on the PO if that's what got the deal done.

My thinking also

[MGB8]

Personally, I see Utah going for Giddey now that they cleared cap.

It's not enough still- bulls would easily match.

There are various non-guaranteed contracts floating around the league. They have the capability to dump another $10M+, especially if they’re giving up prospects (like Cody).

How? YYou can’t trade for non-guaranteed salaries and waive them anymore. They added 13.4 M in Anderson and Love, and while that clears almost 13 M, per spotrac they are still nearly 9 M over the cap (10.6 dead money w/ Clarkson).

[Indomitable]

just as a point of clarification - as a giddey skeptic, i am not saying they should let him walk or take the QO over paying him $30+ million a year, and i don't get the impression that there's a meaningful number of people who think that should be the bulls approach

i just think there's a rash of people who have already gotten way too anxious after a week of no deal and are going "ahh why not give him the top dollar figure he wants, let's just get this done!". and i think there are a ton of reasons to try to extract maximum value out of these contract negotiations, and not a ton of reason to believe we are in a window where there's any meaningful risk of giddey walking away from those negotiations.

if we get to the $30m or nothing precipice, gun to my head, whatever, retain the asset. but until then...use the leverage, man. don't negotiate from a place of fear for a player who's not a bonafide star.

Imagine overreacting on the internet.

[drosestruts]

I see a lot of discussion about Giddey's 3-point shooting and if that's sustainable and I think it's a bit of a distraction.

Yes - aboslutley Giddey shot better from 3 after the all star break - 45% vs 34%. Big difference.

But it didn't change the way he played, his volume of attemps remained relativley the same, 3.9 vs 4.2 attempts per game.


The single biggest difference to Giddey's game, and much more the cause of his increased effeciency was his ability to get to the line - 5.8 FTA per game post all-star break compared to 2.2 per game before the break.

As Giddey's usage increased, our pace increased, and our FTA/game increased.

Giddey's 3-point shooting will not stay at 45% forever

But the player that pushes the pace, attacks the basket, gets to the line - that's josh Giddey.

Fun stat - post all-star break Giddey had the 18th most And-1s.

Even funner stat - post all-star break Coby White had the 3rd most And-1s

[GoBlue72391]

Overpaid and pumpkin aren't the same thing. Pat is a pumpkin. There are many games where his contribution is zero. If you're wrong about Giddey, he is still going to be productive. Giddey, the role player, was basically operating at a 6th man level in terms of impact on a 57-win team. At 21.

But $25-30M for that kind of guy is crazy, though, if he reverts back to that. It would be really ugly.

If he's the player he was after the LaVine trade, he's one of the better contracts in the league on that salary. I don't think either outcome is more likely than the other. If you want him to prove it again, there's a chance he gets more expensive and our situation gets even worse.

I think there's a higher chance he can't maintain that level of play, though certainly not impossible. Agree to disagree.

[MisterRoy]

We really are jaded from how this team is run and it's history. Let's give the kid the benefit of doubt that he will, in fact, maintain that level of play.

[GoBlue72391]

He isn't constantly improving.

Except for improving every season.

Good call.

How??If he was that good the FO wouldn't be bringing players for taking his playing time like Matas and now Okoro?
No, he's just another bust and a very expensive one.It should be clear by now

No. If he was that bad, the Bulls braintrust wouldn't have given him 5/$90M.

He is the future of this franchise. Accept it. Embrace it.

[GoBlue72391]

Except for improving every season.

Good call.

How??If he was that good the FO wouldn't be bringing players for taking his playing time like Matas and now Okoro?
No, he's just another bust and a very expensive one.It should be clear by now

What are you even saying? You think Matas and Okoro are going to be taking Giddey's playing time? They're duplicate players in the same role and position? Please define how Giddey is already a bust. I feel like you're just trolling at this point.

They're talking about Pat, not Giddey.

Someone jokingly mentioned offhand something like "Wait, you can actually negotiate with players instead of just giving them the bag for no reason like Pat?"

That's how Pat got dragged into this.

[GoBlue72391]

Its been said a few different times - but it feels like a large contingent of the fan base doesn't have a good handle on NBA salaries. They appear to be stuck in 2010 when the MLE was 5 million a year and max players were making 25 million AAV.

Giddey at 25 million would the 71st highest paid player in the NBA - he'd be making 40% of what the max guys would be making.

Yeah, but if he reverts back to a 12/6/5 guy with bad defense and an unreliable 3 ball then we have another Pat on our hands. Maybe not that bad, but close enough.

[GoBlue72391]

We really are jaded from how this team is run and it's history. Let's give the kid the benefit of doubt that he will, in fact, maintain that level of play.

Why? Get him for the best value contract possible.

We gave Pat what he wanted and he couldn't even maintain his laughably pedestrian 10/4 statline.

[DuckIII]

I'm fine paying Giddey $30 million per year. Looking objectively at all the factors, the second half of the season far more closely approximated the conditions and style of play he will be in going forward than the first half. Given the timing of his extension, AK has to make a reasonable projection based on the limited evidence he has. And that evidence pretty heavily leans towards what we saw in the second half relative to the first.

And $30 million per for "that guy" is on the bargain end of the spectrum. Would I prefer $25 million annually? Absolutely. Do I expect it? No. Or worse, would I risk seeing Giddey on the QO over it? Hell no.

People also seem to forget that Giddey is not without leverage here. The Bulls - granted they created the scenario that required this - have publicly embraced Giddey as the present face of the franchise (Matas being openly embraced as the future) and are reportedly (and pretty obviously regargless of reports) structuring a team around his style of play. The Bulls kinda have to sign him. Some of us super-nerds might not like that deal (I do think we nerds only have a vocal minority opposed), but the organization also has to look at the marketing and PR problems if Giddey walks. Not to mention AK. Giddey and Matas are his only two wins he can sell the fanbase. They are the only things the allow the Bulls to sell hope with a straight face.

For all the "gotta play hardball!!!" posts in here, I think a lot of you don't really grasp the complexity to this from the Bulls' perspective.

[MrSparkle]

It's not enough still- bulls would easily match.

There are various non-guaranteed contracts floating around the league. They have the capability to dump another $10M+, especially if they’re giving up prospects (like Cody).

How? YYou can’t trade for non-guaranteed salaries and waive them anymore. They added 13.4 M in Anderson and Love, and while that clears almost 13 M, per spotrac they are still nearly 9 M over the cap (10.6 dead money w/ Clarkson).

There are still some guys. Okogie and Charlotte, for example, pushed their deadline to 7/15.

I think the “creative” options are there, if Utah wants to try and find a $30M offer for Giddey. Have to be honest; perfect spot in many ways (nothing to lose with a big FA offer to a young talent; Lauri/Ace need a passer; Kessler’s rim protection covers Giddey’s liability). Plus they’ll have multiple 17yo… er cancel the bad joke.

[Senor Chang]

There are various non-guaranteed contracts floating around the league. They have the capability to dump another $10M+, especially if they’re giving up prospects (like Cody).

How? YYou can’t trade for non-guaranteed salaries and waive them anymore. They added 13.4 M in Anderson and Love, and while that clears almost 13 M, per spotrac they are still nearly 9 M over the cap (10.6 dead money w/ Clarkson).

There are still some guys. Okogie and Charlotte, for example, pushed their deadline to 7/15.

I think the “creative” options are there, if Utah wants to try and find a $30M offer for Giddey. Have to be honest; perfect spot in many ways (nothing to lose with a big FA offer to a young talent; Lauri/Ace need a passer; Kessler’s rim protection covers Giddey’s liability). Plus they’ll have multiple 17yo… er cancel the bad joke.

I thought about this as well. What if Utah jumps in and offers to sign and trade giddy for their top 3 protected draft pick next year + Cody Williams + cap filler do we take it?


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[nomorezorro]

People also seem to forget that Giddey is not without leverage here. The Bulls - granted they created the scenario that required this - have publicly embraced Giddey as the present face of the franchise (Matas being openly embraced as the future) and are reportedly (and pretty obviously regargless of reports) structuring a team around his style of play. The Bulls kinda have to sign him. Some of us super-nerds might not like that deal (I do think we nerds only have a vocal minority opposed), but the organization also has to look at the marketing and PR problems if Giddey walks. Not to mention AK. Giddey and Matas are his only two wins he can sell the fanbase. They are the only things the allow the Bulls to sell hope with a straight face.

For all the "gotta play hardball!!!" posts in here, I think a lot of you don't really grasp the complexity to this from the Bulls' perspective.

i think part of the reason i'm not at all worried about negotiations spiraling to a place where giddey takes the QO or leaves is for the reasons you outline here. all indications are that this front office wants to retain giddey, and i expect they will ultimately do what it takes to do so. (in fact, my expectation going in was that they would err on the side of not fully exercising their leverage for self-indulgent reasons, and i'm happy to see that so far they're seemingly not dong that.)

i just think the reality of giddey being unable to get a meaningful offer from any other team is a more powerful piece of leverage than giddey threatening to bolt in a year. we are presumably offering somewhere between $6-13 million more annually than he can get on the open market right now, and quite possibly somewhere in the ballpark of $110m more guaranteed than he would get playing on the qualifying offer.

sure, you can say he is highly likely to get at least ~$70 million over the next five years even if he plays out this season on the QO, and has a reasonable shot at exceeding $125m or whatever depending on how he plays next year, and can reasonably expect to have more suitors in a year where way more teams are currently projected to have cap space. but ultimately...that's still inviting a potential loss of $50+ million, or maybe even more if something truly catastrophic happens. there's a reason the QO is an exceedingly rare outcome in restricted free agency, and that's even before you factor in the new cap realities of the apron and league revenues not growing as fast as originally projected

[burlydee]

4 years, $110 million with a player option in the 4th year would be my first guess. I think that appeases both sides.

The Bulls obviously need to keep him. I think the 2nd half is most likely where he is as a player when he has the ball in an uptempo style. If the starting lineup is as we presume, I'd expect an 18-8-8 season. He's good. You don't let assets like that go. I'd take him over Melo, Herro, Suggs or many of other lead of guards teams in the Bulls range. He needs to be more consistent but this is the gamble on any not max guy who's signing into a 2nd contract. Get er done.

[dougthonus]

I think it's realistic for him to hover around 47-48% FG% and 35-37% 3P%. He had 5 months this season where he hit those percentages or better. He had 4 months where his TS% was above league average. I think the aim should be 59-60%. If he does that, then I think that's about 85-90% of the player we saw after moving LaVine.

In he end, I don't think he'll be able to achieve that. I may be wrong obviously, certainly good reasons to think the reverse.

[kodo]

Personally, I see Utah going for Giddey now that they cleared cap.

Read they cleared $28M in cap space and can clear another $4M by buying out Love. This is gonna suck for Chicago's leverage if he's their target.
Unless they're targeting Kuminga but that seems less likely with Markkanen there and they just traded away Collin Sexton and bought out Clarkson. They're going for a guard and they seem confident they'll get that guard.

[jordanwilliams6]

The other small piece of leverage that the Bulls have is that I think Giddey genuinely wants to stay and play in Chicago. Is $3-4 million a year worth upending your life and moving to a team like Utah?

Sometimes not everything is about money when you already have that much of it.