Penda will sign for $1,272,870 bringing the total to $193,471,232 on 14 players.
Add in Bane's $1,233,090 in unlikely to be earned incentives which do count against the aprons, the Magic are at $194,704,322.
That is $1,240,678 below the first apron hard cap. That is not enough to sign a minimum player with 0 years experience as that minimum is $1,272,870.
They're literally $32,192 away from being able to afford a player with 0 years experience at the minimum - someone like Rob Santos from their summer league team as an example.
Now...
It's possible Tyus didn't get *exactly* $7M on the nose and Moe didn't get *exactly* $5M on the nose. If either one of those guys got $32,192 less than what is being reported, the Magic can sign a 15th player with 0 years experience WITHOUT moving Jett.
If they do move Jett and bring back $0 in salary, they would go from $1,240,678 below the hard cap to $6,770,398 below the hard cap. That would be enough for the Magic to sign TWO 9-year veteran minimums at $3,303,774 apiece.
It would also be enough for the Magic to use the $5,134,000 bi-annual exception and have enough left over to sign a 0 year experience 15th man to the minimum.
Are there any free agents out there worth $5.134M to you?
Capsheets.com has the roster at 194.494 mil as compared to the luxury tax line at 187.895 mil and the 12 months hard-capped 1st apron at 195.945 mil.
Spotrac is in disagreement and thinks the roster is at 193.471 mil as compared to the same luxury tax line at 187.895 mil and the same 12 months hard-capped 1st apron at 195.945 mil.
The disagreement of the roster's cap space, between the two sources, arises in Noah Penda's contract value for 2025-2026. Who is more correct?
Depending on each's viewpoint, there is 1.4 to 2.5 mil 1st apron cap space left which is not a big deal except for maybe squeezing in a 15th man because, well, why not. Depth, insurance.
But the far more intriguing plan is to instead keep thinking about a 14-man roster only, with three 2-Way players backing them up, and then creating more room again.
This plan can be very impactful from two different angles, both of which can even happen simultaneously in certain scenarios.
One, the Magic can look at trading about two of their own players on the margins to get two cheaper (or same cost), but potentially better, players to put a finishing touch on an all-in summer. Namely, Mosely did not play Jett Howard much at all. And Mosely did not play Goga much for how good he was in the regular season, and basically not much at all in the playoffs.
Two, and likely much more important strategically, the Magic can get under the luxury tax line and not even start the repeater tax clock, the clock that killed BOS's team, because, interestingly enough, the 1st apron and the luxury tax line are that close together.
Slight detour but very relevant:
Spoiler:
As I mentioned in another post, it is the most oppressive repeater tax bills that killed BOS. And not the deep tax bills. When you pay the tax in 3 out of the 4 past seasons, you activate these super repeater tax penalties. If you break the cycle and reset under the luxury tax line in 1 season, you can reset the clock, but by my scratch work, most of the time you only buy yourself 2 seasons with no repeater tax instead of 3 or 4. Because there is a consensus that maybe this CBA went too far in one extreme, it might also work to try and outlast this current CBA expecting the next one to be a middle ground between this current one and the last one(s). Therefore, giving some big tax payment amount relief that way as well. Or maybe even some interesting concepts we've introduced like supermaxes where 50 mil counts to the cap and tax, and the true 70 mil amount counts to the player (via a predetermined proportion). (If the player is traded from the contract-signing team, the new team counts 55-58 mil to the cap and tax, and 70 mil to the player (via a predetermined proportion)).
So let's look at this more intriguing plan and try to accomplish it from both angles. For one, getting under the luxury tax, and two, maybe even getting a better player(s) on the margins for ORL.
However, due to the unpredictable nature of trades, I have no reasonable belief of finding some top 3 trade out there for the Magic. So I have to play with a scenario that was mentioned here a lot, and probably even over-trade to make it unfair to ORL for the sake of proving viability.
Goga Bitadze Jett Howard 2028 2nd (WAS's) 2030 2nd (MIL's) for Dalton Knecht Shake Milton ($0 Guaranteed if waived before July 20, 2025; Waived by ORL to re-sign with LAL) *Trade works on Spotrac
Under the more stricter CapSheets view, this would put ORL at 184.642 mil with about 3.2 mil space left under the LUXURY TAX LINE to find a 14th man and return to roster compliance. The Magic avoid the repeater tax clock, and add a young, space it out shooter into a bit of a lineup hole and right in the thick of a heated minutes battle against Tristan Da Silva and Jase Richardson as someone like Anthony Black slides around to defend high-scoring 3/2's as needed.
If we want to take it one step further with the unfairness for ORL as well, there is one more variation of the trade idea. But in reality, there are probably much better trade partners and fairer frameworks, that would likely even involve TPE/BAE spaces instead. Regardless, here is the variation:
Goga Bitadze 2028 2nd (WAS's) 2030 2nd (MIL's) for Dalton Knecht Shake Milton ($0 Guaranteed if waived before July 20, 2025; Waived by ORL to re-sign with LAL) *Trade works on Spotrac and Jett Howard stretch-waived by ORL to sign with BRK
Under the more stricter CapSheets view, this would put ORL at 186.485 mil with about 1.4 mil space left under the LUXURY TAX LINE to find a 14th man and return to roster compliance. The Magic avoid the repeater tax clock, and add a young, space it out shooter into a bit of a lineup hole and right in the thick of a heated minutes battle against Tristan Da Silva and Jase Richardson as someone like Anthony Black slides around to defend high-scoring 3/2's as needed.
In this variation, the Magic would basically be hunting for an undrafted rookie to sign for the cheapest rookie minimum salary which is set at 1.2 mil. Don't forget that this player can be a Big, and the two to three remaining 2-Way Contracts can also be Bigs or whatever position is most needed for depth and injuries (like Mo's).
Capsheets.com has the roster at 194.494 mil as compared to the luxury tax line at 187.895 mil and the 12 months hard-capped 1st apron at 195.945 mil.
Spotrac is in disagreement and thinks the roster is at 193.471 mil as compared to the same luxury tax line at 187.895 mil and the same 12 months hard-capped 1st apron at 195.945 mil.
The disagreement of the roster's cap space, between the two sources, arises in Noah Penda's contract value for 2025-2026. Who is more correct?
Depending on each's viewpoint, there is 1.4 to 2.5 mil 1st apron cap space left which is not a big deal except for maybe squeezing in a 15th man because, well, why not. Depth, insurance.
But the far more intriguing plan is to instead keep thinking about a 14-man roster only, with three 2-Way players backing them up, and then creating more room again.
This plan can be very impactful from two different angles, both of which can even happen simultaneously in certain scenarios.
One, the Magic can look at trading about two of their own players on the margins to get two cheaper (or same cost), but potentially better, players to put a finishing touch on an all-in summer. Namely, Mosely did not play Jett Howard much at all. And Mosely did not play Goga much for how good he was in the regular season, and basically not much at all in the playoffs.
Two, and likely much more important strategically, the Magic can get under the luxury tax line and not even start the repeater tax clock, the clock that killed BOS's team, because, interestingly enough, the 1st apron and the luxury tax line are that close together.
Slight detour but very relevant:
Spoiler:
As I mentioned in another post, it is the most oppressive repeater tax bills that killed BOS. And not the deep tax bills. When you pay the tax in 3 out of the 4 past seasons, you activate these super repeater tax penalties. If you break the cycle and reset under the luxury tax line in 1 season, you can reset the clock, but by my paperwork, most of the time you only buy yourself 2 seasons with no repeater tax instead of 3 or 4. Because there is a consensus that maybe this CBA went too far in one extreme, it might also work to try and outlast this current CBA expecting the next one to be a middle ground between this current one and the last one(s). Therefore, giving some big tax payment amount relief that way as well. Or maybe even some interesting concepts we've introduced like supermaxes where 50 mil counts to the cap and tax, and the true 70 mil amount counts to the player (via a predetermined proportion). (If the player is traded from the contract-signing team, the new team counts 55-58 mil to the cap and tax, and 70 mil to the player (via a predetermined proportion)).
So let's look at this more intriguing plan and try to accomplish it from both angles. For one, getting under the luxury tax, and two, maybe even getting a better player(s) on the margins for ORL.
However, due to the unpredictable nature of trades, I have no reasonable belief of finding some top 3 trade out there for the Magic. So I have to play with a scenario that was mentioned here a lot, and maybe even over-trade to make it unfair to ORL for the sake of proving viability.
Goga Bitadze Jett Howard 2028 2nd (WAS's) 2030 2nd (MIL's) for Dalton Knecht Shake Milton ($0 Guaranteed if waived before July 20, 2025; Waived by ORL to re-sign with LAL) *Trade works on Spotrac
Under the more stricter CapSheets view, this would put ORL at 184.642 mil with about 3.2 mil space left under the LUXURY TAX LINE to find a 14th man and return to roster compliance. The Magic avoid the repeater tax clock, and add a young, space it out shooter into a bit of a lineup hole and in the thick of a heated minutes battle against Tristan Da Silva and Jase Richardson as someone like Anthony Black slides around to defend high-scoring 3/2's as needed.
If we want to take it one step further with the unfairness for ORL as well, there is one more variation of the trade idea. But in reality, there are probably much better trade partners and fairer frameworks, that would likely even involve TPE/BAE spaces instead. Regardless, here is the variation:
Goga Bitadze 2028 2nd (WAS's) 2030 2nd (MIL's) for Dalton Knecht Shake Milton ($0 Guaranteed if waived before July 20, 2025; Waived by ORL to re-sign with LAL) *Trade works on Spotrac and Jett Howard stretch-waived by ORL to sign with BRK
Under the more stricter CapSheets view, this would put ORL at 186.485 mil with about 1.4 mil space left under the LUXURY TAX LINE to find a 14th man and return to roster compliance. The Magic avoid the repeater tax clock, and add a young, space it out shooter into a bit of a lineup hole and in the thick of a heated minutes battle against Tristan Da Silva and Jase Richardson as someone like Anthony Black slides around to defend high-scoring 3/2's as needed.
In this variation, the Magic would basically be hunting for an undrafted rookie to sign for the cheapest rookie minimum salary which is set at 1.2 mil. Don't forget that this player can be a Big, and the two to three remaining 2-Way Contracts can also be Bigs or whatever position is most needed for depth and injuries (like Mo's).
We don’t know which one is correct yet because they’re both assuming different things.
Spotrac is assuming the Magic gave Penda the lowest possible guarantee and Capsheets is assuming they gave Penda the highest possible guarantee.
Most of the time guys picked 32nd get the highest possible guarantee.
But the Magic may also need every dollar they can get scrounge up.
Knightro wrote:We don’t know which one is correct yet because they’re both assuming different things.
Spotrac is assuming the Magic gave Penda the lowest possible guarantee and Capsheets is assuming they gave Penda the highest possible guarantee.
Most of the time guys picked 32nd get the highest possible guarantee.
But the Magic may also need every dollar they can get scrounge up.
Yeah, 100% agreed. That's why I didn't even entertain Spotrac's version in the two trade ideas. I just assumed the worst and used CapSheet's more expensive roster.
I have a new twist. From my perusing, it seems the team's cap space is not counted until the start of the last regular season game. Meaning, ORL can hang back all the way until the trade deadline before making a move or two to get strategically under the luxury tax line, or, for maximizing/minimizing their 1st apron space left.
Rolling with Goga and Jett makes a lot of sense with Mo's rehab currently and a small lineup opening for Jett to show out and compete for minutes against TDS and Jase. Then trade marginal players like Jett later (if still marginal) to get under the luxury tax, or trade with the idea of more winning and maximizing every dollar of 1st apron space left if needed.
A veteran minimum 15th-man signing would not stop the idea of getting under the luxury tax, but it would put more pressure on it though. My money is on them not signing a 15th man, but maybe they are more serious about their three 2-Way contracts this season than in a normal season. Keeping the 15th slot empty is an emergency to any unforeseen new injuries (if any at all, fingers crossed) and consistent underperformances (if any at all, fingers crossed) in the lineups too.
dsg2021 wrote:I have a new twist. From my perusing, it seems the team's cap space is not counted until the start of the last regular season game. Meaning, ORL can hang back all the way until the trade deadline before making a move or two to get strategically under the luxury tax line, or, for maximizing/minimizing their 1st apron space left.
Rolling with Goga and Jett makes a lot of sense with Mo's rehab currently and a small lineup opening for Jett to show out and compete for minutes against TDS and Jase. Then trade marginal players like Jett later (if still marginal) to get under the luxury tax, or trade with the idea of more winning and maximizing every dollar of 1st apron space left if needed.
A veteran minimum 15th-man signing would not stop the idea of getting under the luxury tax, but it would put more pressure on it though. My money is on them not signing a 15th man, but maybe they are more serious about their three 2-Way contracts this season than in a normal season. Keeping the 15th slot empty is an emergency to any unforeseen new injuries (if any at all, fingers crossed) and consistent underperformances (if any at all, fingers crossed) in the lineups too.
Probably the way they go...now that Moe is signed they might as well give Jett another look - at least in camp. The new playmaking additions might create a whole different level of offensive performance and pace that might really suit Jett. He's still an empty uniform until proven otherwise, but the urgency isn't there anymore. I also like the flexibility to poach some summer league surprise if it appears and the fit is undeniable.
If Penda is a hit we can trade JI next summer and reaload even more dangerous team. Maybe we traded our picks but we still have so many options open. Resigning Jones or Mo, upgrade center, change Black or Suggs..... we are in as good of a position as we can be.
With the hard cap first apron, does it limit Orlando’s further ability to make trades?
We definitely can not get more than we send out
Any others? What about Free Agency signing like if we get a chance for a guy like Lillard who just got stretched and waived by the Bucks
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For practical purposes we are not so limited as one would think. We can still usually claim someone off waivers up to the 1st apron space left. We can still offer all the 1st apron space left to Damian Lillard in free agency today or later in the season, which might be like 2.5 mil at the worst, and easily 7 mil for Dame with a move or two (like dumping Goga and 2nds for space). We can still make all types of trades too. We just have to basically be taking equal/less money in return, like you said.
The other side of the coin is that there are some restrictions on us in the 1st apron space. But in my personal opinion, these restrictions are not even as restrictive as the fact that the premium tier of cap space the Magic have left is also shrinking to zero anyways. Put simply, we are more limited by the roster being expensive more than by the 1st apron restrictions. The 2nd apron, though, is the tier that maybe you can live with the tax if it is not a repeater tax year (activated after 3 seasons), but the moves available are much more frozen/stuck. But I believe you can still trade if taking less money back. Maybe someone like Knightro can come in and explain more clearly. But I had to share my 2 cents that I don’t think the 1st apron restricts us much. Or as much as people think.
MasterGMer wrote:I know Paolo's max extension won't affect the cap this season. But what is the case for next season? Magic will be well above 2nd Apron.
What are the ways of managing it cause I have no clue. Our core of Suggs, Bane, Franz and Paolo will cost us the entire cap.
But again, next year we will be scary!!
Eating it for a season while others come off the books.
MasterGMer wrote:I know Paolo's max extension won't affect the cap this season. But what is the case for next season? Magic will be well above 2nd Apron.
What are the ways of managing it cause I have no clue. Our core of Suggs, Bane, Franz and Paolo will cost us the entire cap.
But again, next year we will be scary!!
Someone eventually has to go to right? My guess is suggs eventually gets traded
MasterGMer wrote:I know Paolo's max extension won't affect the cap this season. But what is the case for next season? Magic will be well above 2nd Apron.
What are the ways of managing it cause I have no clue. Our core of Suggs, Bane, Franz and Paolo will cost us the entire cap.
But again, next year we will be scary!!
Someone eventually has to go to right? My guess is suggs eventually gets traded
His contract declines. I doubt he'll be moved unless things just aren't working out
MasterGMer wrote:I know Paolo's max extension won't affect the cap this season. But what is the case for next season? Magic will be well above 2nd Apron.
What are the ways of managing it cause I have no clue. Our core of Suggs, Bane, Franz and Paolo will cost us the entire cap.
But again, next year we will be scary!!
Someone eventually has to go to right? My guess is suggs eventually gets traded
If it is a trade, we have to take back contracts. Plus we can not send out more than we take back because of 1st apron.
Next summer the free agency will be interesting because a lot of teams will have cap space. Hope we do a Michael Porter Jr trade with Brooklyn and we dump some contracts.
Otherwise, we will have the same problem Boston had this summer
MasterGMer wrote:Otherwise, we will have the same problem Boston had this summer
Not really though. Boston had paid the luxury tax four years in a row and were about to get absolutely hammered by the repeater tax.
There's a world where the Magic don't even pay the luxury tax this year and next year will be their first year in the tax. It's not the same thing.
Then they will pay a pretty significant tax bill in 26-27, but by 27-28 you have Suggs down to just 15.8% of the cap and are paying your top 4 guys about 86-87% of the cap. Very doable.
MasterGMer wrote:Otherwise, we will have the same problem Boston had this summer
Not really though. Boston had paid the luxury tax four years in a row and were about to get absolutely hammered by the repeater tax.
There's a world where the Magic don't even pay the luxury tax this year and next year will be their first year in the tax. It's not the same thing.
Then they will pay a pretty significant tax bill in 26-27, but by 27-28 you have Suggs down to just 15.8% of the cap and are paying your top 4 guys about 86-87% of the cap. Very doable.
And-1
Next year is a struggle financially. But then it smoothes out. The key is that for the next 4 seasons, the Magic has its starting five. That's awesome!
