Blue Jays vs. White Sox, July 7-9

[Randle McMurphy]

If they were particularly concerned about Berrios' velocity being way down (which it clearly was from the first pitch), I expect they'd have pulled him even earlier than they did.

From watching his post-game presser, it appears he honestly just thought he could get away with Pina pitching 3 innings without having to end up using a high leverage guy. Probably hoped for something similar to what Estrada gave them, but that's the exception and not the rule with AAA pitchers.

[SharoneWright]

Baseball can turn on a razor edge. Everybody knows that. It’s a game of risk/reward.

Vladdy picks that short hop from Barger and this discussion isn’t happening.

It was a calculated move against a bad team that actually worked out. A little stressful, sure, but I’m sure the coaching staff is happy with reducing Berrios’ pitch count tonight and where the bullpen is for tomorrow.

[Randle McMurphy]

Baseball can turn on a razor edge. Everybody knows that. It’s a game of risk/reward.

Vladdy picks that short hop from Barger and this discussion isn’t happening.

It was a calculated move against a bad team that actually worked out. A little stressful, sure, but I’m sure the coaching staff is happy with reducing Berrios’ pitch count tonight and where the bullpen is for tomorrow.

Warming up Hoffman means it didn’t work out.

[JaysRule15]

I guess the important question now is why was Berrios' velocity down.

[Randle McMurphy]

I guess the important question now is why was Berrios' velocity down.

Maybe he was conserving himself given the opponent and the long stretch they’re in without off days. The Jays have tried to avoid using all these guys all season on 4 days rest given their age and the miles on their arms to the point of keeping Bowden Francis around primarily for that reason.

He did still hit 93 plenty of times throughout the outing which is his average this year (his velocity overall is down about 1 MPH from his previous years with the Jays).

If the Jays aren’t concerned (and they didn’t appear to be given they let him throw 76 pitches knowing he had low velocity), though, I wouldn’t be.

[SharoneWright]

Baseball can turn on a razor edge. Everybody knows that. It’s a game of risk/reward.

Vladdy picks that short hop from Barger and this discussion isn’t happening.

It was a calculated move against a bad team that actually worked out. A little stressful, sure, but I’m sure the coaching staff is happy with reducing Berrios’ pitch count tonight and where the bullpen is for tomorrow.

Warming up Hoffman means it didn’t work out.

That was going to be the next part of my point. But I didn’t want to go on and on and on.

I think once you commit to piña et al., you need to go all in on your bet against a bad White Sox lineup. You need to leave it in the hands of Chad Green and live with the results. 7 runs up with 9 outs to get should never involve warming up your closer. No matter what.

[bartron_44]

No matter what?

The only “no matter what” they had up 7 with 9 outs to get was winning the game. They cant botch another series against a basement dweller during the heater they are on right now. Or at any time during a season where you are trying to contend…

If the low leverage guys blow it, you absolutely use your available studs if need be to get that W. It isn’t ideal, but it is 100% the correct move.

Your telling me you would be happier right now if they went to Green, he blows it, and the winning streak is snapped after being up 7? Against the effing White Sox..lol You think anyone in that clubhouse would be? All the hitters would be like “wtf are we doing? We just scored a crap load of runs, and we arent even going to try and win this game today?”

You cant sweep a series if you dont win game 1. And they definitely should be trying to sweep this one.

[-MetA4-]

If they were particularly concerned about Berrios' velocity being way down (which it clearly was from the first pitch), I expect they'd have pulled him even earlier than they did.

From watching his post-game presser, it appears he honestly just thought he could get away with Pina pitching 3 innings without having to end up using a high leverage guy. Probably hoped for something similar to what Estrada gave them, but that's the exception and not the rule with AAA pitchers.

We aren't going to get the true answer regardless (they won't disclose injury concerns in a post-game presser even if that went into the decision), but you are now making quite a few leaps in logic to try to justify your predetermined position:

1) If they had pulled Berrios even earlier, then they absolutely would have guaranteed a game where they taxed their bullpen. Note that reduced velocity doesn't mean that his arm is certain to blow up at any moment, so the reasonable assumption here is that they likely let him pitch long enough to put them into a position to try to finish the game with low-leverage relievers, but pulled him early enough to mitigate the risk of long-term damage if they actually did have a concern over his arm.

Countering that with "yeah well if they were truly worried about his arm then they would have certainly pulled him even earlier, so that must not have been it" is a hyperbole fallacy. Reduced velocity is a potential symptom of an incoming injury, but it is hardly a guarantee. Reduced velocity could also mean absolutely nothing, in which case pulling him after lets say 4 innings would just be baseless panic.

2) Pina is not as good as Estrada, and historically has considerably worse control/command (he has just under a 4 BB/9 over his entire minor league career) so I don't necessarily buy the logic that they saw Estrada successfully throw 4 innings, and this made them convinced that Pina could/would do the same, so they rushed out to pull their starter at just over 70 pitches to take this chance. Also note that the two scenarios were completely different: Scherzer had thrown 72 pitches over just 4 innings in the game that Estrada ended up throwing 4 innings of relief, and Scherzer has all sorts of ongoing concerns over this thumb so there was good reason why they had to yank him from that game early. Berrios was throwing significantly fewer pitches per inning than Scherzer was, and we also had a blowout lead (whereas it was just a 1-run lead in the game that Estrada pitched).

I can also point out that in the very next game (immediately after Estrada's game) they let Gausman throw 107 pitches over just 5.2 innings, and two games before Estrada's game they had Bassitt throw 113 pitches over 5.2 innings against the Yankees. So what are we trying to argue here? That Schneider had absolutely no problem elevating the pitch counts for Bassitt and Gausman in TIGHT games, but then randomly decided to pull Berrios at ~75 pitches in an 8-1 blowout...because he was convinced that a scrub pitcher with poor control who they just called up was going to throw 3 clean innings? These are all conflicting events, which would give credibility to the theory that there was something ELSE that went into the decision to pull Berrios early.

You go on in your next post to say that maybe Berrios' velocity was down because he was "conserving himself", but c'mon man: the coaches talk to the starter after every inning. So now we want to hypothesize that Berrios was intentionally conserving himself so that he could throw longer, and somehow Schneider/Walker were completely oblivious to this and decided to pull him EARLY? No, I refuse to take this as a possibility because it just isn't likely. Again, the much more likely scenario is that they talked to Berrios about his velocity ("hey man, you're pitching well...but your velocity is way down, how do you feel?") and its possible that Berrios confirmed that he didn't have it in the tank and they decided to call it early. Of course I have no idea if that is what actually occurred, but its far more likely. They absolutely do look at velocity over the game (and likely much more than that) and its unfathomable to believe that no one spoke to Berrios after seeing his velocity in that start. If he was intentionally sandbagging his velocity to try to pitch longer, then he wouldn't have been pulled.

[WuTang_OG]

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[Randle McMurphy]

1) If they had pulled Berrios even earlier, then they absolutely would have guaranteed a game where they taxed their bullpen. Note that reduced velocity doesn't mean that his arm is certain to blow up at any moment, so the reasonable assumption here is that they likely let him pitch long enough to put them into a position to try to finish the game with low-leverage relievers, but pulled him early enough to mitigate the risk of long-term damage if they actually did have a concern over his arm.

Countering that with "yeah well if they were truly worried about his arm then they would have certainly pulled him even earlier, so that must not have been it" is a hyperbole fallacy. Reduced velocity is a potential symptom of an incoming injury, but it is hardly a guarantee. Reduced velocity could also mean absolutely nothing, in which case pulling him after lets say 4 innings would just be baseless panic.

If they were at all concerned that he was injured (and that his low velocity from the first pitch reflected some kind of injury), he would have been pulled from the game long before the end of the 6th inning. The Jays are extremely protective of their pitchers and would have definitely been on the safe side even at the expense of winning the game or ruining the pen or anything else. It's a safe assumption then that injury concerns had little to nothing to do with their decision.

2) Pina is not as good as Estrada, and historically has considerably worse control/command (he has just under a 4 BB/9 over his entire minor league career) so I don't necessarily buy the logic that they saw Estrada successfully throw 4 innings, and this made them convinced that Pina could/would do the same, so they rushed out to pull their starter at just over 70 pitches to take this chance. Also note that the two scenarios were completely different: Scherzer had thrown 72 pitches over just 4 innings in the game that Estrada ended up throwing 4 innings of relief, and Scherzer has all sorts of ongoing concerns over this thumb so there was good reason why they had to yank him from that game early. Berrios was throwing significantly fewer pitches per inning than Scherzer was, and we also had a blowout lead (whereas it was just a 1-run lead in the game that Estrada pitched).

You're right, it is poor logic from John Schneider. That was the point. I would submit that he saw what Estrada did and it clouded his judgment about a similar albeit worse pitcher doing the same kind of thing two days later. There was very little chance Pina was going to be able to pitch 3 effective major league innings and it ended up costing them 2 major league arms (and warming up one of the highest leverage guys).

I can also point out that in the very next game (immediately after Estrada's game) they let Gausman throw 107 pitches over just 5.2 innings, and two games before Estrada's game they had Bassitt throw 113 pitches over 5.2 innings against the Yankees. So what are we trying to argue here? That Schneider had absolutely no problem elevating the pitch counts for Bassitt and Gausman in TIGHT games, but then randomly decided to pull Berrios at ~75 pitches in an 8-1 blowout...because he was convinced that a scrub pitcher with poor control who they just called up was going to throw 3 clean innings? These are all conflicting events, which would give credibility to the theory that there was something ELSE that went into the decision to pull Berrios early.

There's nothing random about the pull. It seems pretty clear what he attempted to do. Once they took a 8-1 lead, he just thought he could get away with Pina pitching the three innings in that spot and saving Berrios both this week and down the road. He very well could have gotten away with that risk, but Pina was so bad that it ended up being a bad decision.

You go on in your next post to say that maybe Berrios' velocity was down because he was "conserving himself", but c'mon man: the coaches talk to the starter after every inning. So now we want to hypothesize that Berrios was intentionally conserving himself so that he could throw longer, and somehow Schneider/Walker were completely oblivious to this and decided to pull him EARLY?[/b] No, I refuse to take this as a possibility because it just isn't likely. Again, the much more likely scenario is that they talked to Berrios about his velocity ("hey man, you're pitching well...but your velocity is way down, how do you feel?") and its possible that Berrios confirmed that he didn't have it in the tank and they decided to call it early. Of course I have no idea if that is what actually occurred, but its far more likely. They absolutely do look at velocity over the game (and likely much more than that) and its unfathomable to believe that no one spoke to Berrios after seeing his velocity in that start. If he was intentionally sandbagging his velocity to try to pitch longer, then he wouldn't have been pulled.

The "conserving himself" idea is just a theory and one that is just as valid as anything else. That does happen over the course of a long season and he clearly had some 93s in the tank yesterday when he thought he needed them. Gausman often does something similar in the games he pitches where he will throw in the low 90s for some starts but then ups it into the mid 90s at the end (or in big spots when he thinks he needs it).

You're also again assuming here that the reason for the pull was because of his low velocity, which again we have no evidence at all on and which I don't believe was the case. If that game is close, I'm just about certain Berrios pitches the 7th and maybe even the 8th too.

[And1Skip]

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Though its nice to get a lot of national coverage of the Jays (and Mark DeRosa always has good things to say about the Jays from his 1 short stint here) but this is a bit too cringy. But again, nice that the Jays are getting their flowers...

[johanliebert]

Fans still think John wants to pull a starter after 75 pitches?

Or that the starters averaging 5 IP is cause of John when its a league wide trend. Managers do what theyre told Pina’s role was predetermined.

[johanliebert]

What an incredibly stupid hour that was. Thanks for that one John

Schneider has made some weird decisons throughout the season but i understand why he waited, at 8-1 he wanted to give the bullpen a rest and use only Pina and it makes sense after how the bullpen was extensively used last week. Let's just say we might see Pina DFA'd tomorrrow.

You know have former pros telling you who makes the decisions but you stll blame a manager lmao

Im waiting for the day the analytics department receives some criticism.

[Asianiac_24]

I think Lukes/Clement/Barger have definitely played themselves into an everyday role at this point. Which begs the question, what do we do with Giminez/Santander/Varsho when they are back?

[Fairview4Life]

The Blue Jays will keep winning games until morale improves.

[bluerap23]

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Lukes has definitely been a nice surprise as well. We suddenly have depth.

[Fairview4Life]

Very smart of our new hitting coach to tell the guys to stop striking out.

[bluerap23]

I think Lukes/Clement/Barger have definitely played themselves into an everyday role at this point. Which begs the question, what do we do with Giminez/Santander/Varsho when they are back?

Unfortunately nothing we can do with Giminez and Santander as they have negative trade value. Giminez deal was always a head-scratcher for me. I wouldn't be surprised to see them mover Varsho because I'm not sure we can afford to sign him and he probably still has value on trade market.

[Mehar]

I think Lukes/Clement/Barger have definitely played themselves into an everyday role at this point. Which begs the question, what do we do with Giminez/Santander/Varsho when they are back?

Forget about Santander for now, since he is probably coming back mid-August or so. So, Lukes, Clement, and Barger can still be in the lineup when Varsho and Gimenez come back. Have Varsho in CF, Lukes in LF, Barger at RF, Clement at 3rd, Bichette at SS, Gimenez at Second Base, Vlad at 1st, Kirk as Catcher and Springer at DH. So, guys like Davis Schneider, Will Wagner, or Loperfido will be relegated to the bench. Best option would be to package two of those guys as a trade chip, to ultimately get another high end Bullpen Piece or Front End Starting Pitcher.

[Randle McMurphy]

I think Lukes/Clement/Barger have definitely played themselves into an everyday role at this point. Which begs the question, what do we do with Giminez/Santander/Varsho when they are back?

Unfortunately nothing we can do with Giminez and Santander as they have negative trade value. Giminez deal was always a head-scratcher for me. I wouldn't be surprised to see them mover Varsho because I'm not sure we can afford to sign him and he probably still has value on trade market.

They won't trade Varsho midseason while they are in 1st. It could happen in the offseason if they can't extend him, though.

Also, check out Gimenez's xwOBA this year. There's nothing wrong with him or that deal and his offensive numbers would have corrected themselves over time (they were already beginning to before he got hurt again).

As far as Santander, he looked awful but it's pretty easy to attribute a lot of that to his injury. If he can get healthy again this season, there's no reason to think he can't be a productive hitter.

All three of them will start more or less full time when they return, as they should. Particularly against RHPs.