Why are our valuations so off?

[pipfan]

In the last six months we've seen a ton of deals we'd laugh at on the board. Of course, there are always outliers. But the deals we've seen recently seem SO FAR off from what we'd accept here as a fair deal, there has to be some explanation to the gap.

Luka deal
Holiday for Simons (and Port throws in 2nds-which I know were rescinded)
The ATL-NO deal (NO ONE on this Board would go for this)
Powell to Miami for almost nothing
Bane dealt for so much draft capital
Sexton for Nurkic, plus Utah adds a 2nd
Poole for CJ

Of course, GM's are must more aware of what's going on, and have a ton more info than we do. You could explain some of these, but where are we off? Or, are many GM's just idiots?

[PistolPeteJR]

There are a few obvious reasons which I won't get in to, but outside of those, I think the biggest reason is the new CBA and its implications on cap sheet and team building. Most fans, including those who get into the nitty gritty of the game, don't understand it, nor do most fans think big picture 5-7 years down the road.
Also, fans don't typically take into consideration certain things GMs need to, like what ownership will bless vs not.

[Bornstellar]

1. Current CBA has really warped player values and what teams are willing to shell out now for mid-tier talent
2. Lots of dumb GMs (*coughDumarscough*)

[SkyHook]

In the last six months we've seen a ton of deals we'd laugh at on the board. Of course, there are always outliers. But the deals we've seen recently seem SO FAR off from what we'd accept here as a fair deal, there has to be some explanation to the gap.

Luka deal
Holiday for Simons (and Port throws in 2nds-which I know were rescinded)
The ATL-NO deal (NO ONE on this Board would go for this)
Powell to Miami for almost nothing
Bane dealt for so much draft capital
Sexton for Nurkic, plus Utah adds a 2nd
Poole for CJ

Of course, GM's are must more aware of what's going on, and have a ton more info than we do. You could explain some of these, but where are we off? Or, are many GM's just idiots?

Massive drop off in perceived value for scoring 2s with no defense explains Simons, Powell, Sexton. A needed correction.
Luka deal was nuts, no explanation.
Joe Dumars is simply not a smart GM.

I like the value of the Bane deal for Orlando.

[esvl]

What’s wrong with the Luka for Davis + Flagg deal? Looks pretty fair to me.

[Mavrelous]

Some of these were just stupid deals by stuoid GMs
Luka deal was a disaster, Mavs would be in a worse spot than the Suns if it wasn't for Flagg
NO-ATL, ATL had to call Dumars directly to make sure it's not a prank, tells you everything you need to know.
Holiday for Simons is an overpay, but nowhere near the other 2.
I wasn't shocked by the Powell trade and don't think it was bad.
Bane is understandable, he fit all needs, they paid whatever it takes.
Sextin for Nurkic is deferred payment, not convinced this was the real valuation.

[jayjaysee]

Three examples are major outliers where media and fans don’t understand how the team allowed it (Luka and Dumars in general)

The Sexton trade - I think most assume it was an extension of Charlotte taking Kon of Bailey.

There was a handful of threads on Powell/Collins.. Miami just used tax/cap space as an asset instead of paying an asset..

Bane I think their fans were happy offering 3 firsts for Bane. The team overpaid by one first to get the ideal fit locked up.

[JRoy]

It’s not our money.

[ChettheJet]

There are plenty of posters who think they understand, know and believe a lot more than they really do. A whole bunch of people play 'trade machine' and think just because the salaries match teams should make trades an they ignore the length of contracts, GM's and owner's past experience with players or agents and sometimes the years executives have watched some players make them undesirable. A lot of posters would break down in tears if they were told they just don't know as much as the 'bad GMs who get paid millions to actually do the job.

Anybody who thinks this is more than being a fan or a hobby needs to outgrow having the mindset of a 12 years old and try to enjoy basketball for the sport it is and stop pretending that there's a team looking for executive talent on a message board

[Village Idiot]

A couple of possible contributing factors:

- personal relationships between GMs and coaches on one side and players and agents on the other. Sometimes in a work environment relationships mean more than individual contributions and you might get rid of someone because you or others don´t like them.

- agent power and packages, long-term and medium thinking into multiple players and time horizons. Individual deals can seem sub-optimal but they might contribute to some later deal with a good return and an optimization of the whole

- short-termism: some GMs, coaches and agents are just trying to make money while they can and cynically prioritize that. They know the duration in their position is short.

- divergence in strategies regarding importance of maximizing winning: Fans almost always want to win championships within some defined time period. Owners have different motiviations but almost always they want to maximize return on investment and some combination of cash flow and profitability. However. Some owners want to win regardless of short-term profitability. Ego-driven franchise management or even trying to give it one last try while alive. Some owners view a team as a hobby

- divergence in team building strategies

- a long-term perspective that we as fans aren´t aware of

- cognitive biases

- herd mentality

[Helsbyte]

I think this has more to do with the new CBA. 99% of players under contract with the old CBA and those contracts just haven't played out yet and with the new CBA being as restrictive as it, most teams are trying to get under the aprons. I believe it will get worse before it gets better and over paying for stars will cripple teams moving forward.

[BlazersBroncos]

It doesnt cover all the moves but its clear that score first guards that generally only play 1 side of the ball and w/o size are not valued much in todays NBA.

[JKiddy]

80% New CBA
15% Hometeam Bias
5% Lakers Fans after Luka trade mistakenly believing it is the "new norm"

[hugepatsfan]

1) Underrating financial aspect of deals

2) Being quick to just write off 2-3 year periods as rebuilding/asset hoarding as opposed to a real world business model that's expected to generate fan interest/revenue, as well as a certain level of competence needed from teammates to develop those young players the rebuild is designed around.

3) Less nuanced player evaluations and less thought out development plans. We make snap judgements of guys based on what they done. Very few actually scout to the extent a team would. We say a guy sucks at 3 point shooting; an actual GM/scouting team might think he's being asked to shoot off the dribble too much and would be fine as a supporting piece where it's more catch and shoot threes. We rely on statistics which are, in large part, driven by what your teammates do. You teammates shoot like ****, you look like a ball hog with a low assist %. Your teammates can't defend - you have a poor defensive rating. Teams probably watch the on court play and don't make that entirely an individual evaluation.

[oldfishermen]

New CBA!

There will be fewer max and super max players. GMs are afraid to commit so much cap space to one player.

The problem for now, and the next couple of years is the number of overpaid players. Untill their contracts are weeded out, players values will be compresed.

The FAs this season are taking a beating on their contracts compared to past seasons. More players than normal will only be offered a vet min contract or some exception level.

In other words, supply and demand has changed. Too many players with less top end cap space reduces everyones value.

In the future, the money will go to the two way players. And they wii have more trade value than the specialist.

[tester551]

The FAs this season are taking a beating on their contracts compared to past seasons. More players than normal will only be offered a vet min contract or some exception level.

I agree with everything you said. I will add that this FA crop is complete garbage.... so that is further depressing the money being handed out.

[longfellow44]

The new CBA makes it really hard for teams to be comfortable with contracts in the 20-30 Million range. The league will soon be a lot of players getting payed less than 20 million and then about 1 star player on each team making at least 50 million. And teams that pay middle salaries won't have a chance to be competitive, because they won't be able to keep more than 1 star player without the rest of the team being made up of low salary players.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Think honestly CBA killed free agency. Sign and trade is so limiting now. Players have way less options driving down their value. Getting rid of the 125 percent rule makes it so much harder to dump money.

Think we seeing similar value driven down in trades. Players have less options on the open market. Not as many teams could make a trade for stars now like they could on old CBA .


Players use to be picking from 6 to 10 teams in free agency or trade market. Now you lucky if 2 or 3 teams can afford you.

[flranger]

The Sexton trade - I think most assume it was an extension of Charlotte taking Kon of Bailey.

I've not seen this, but it makes a lot of sense. Has this been reported/speculated by any national media?

[TPA]

It has been reported that while Troy Weaver was GM in Detroit, teams were calling him for deals because they knew they could get over on him. And they did. Over and over again. He would have been better served reading our message board and running trade scenarios with our input. I guess my point is, not all GM's are as good at their job as you'd expect them to be at the highest organizational levels. You can say the same thing for a lot of executives in many industries (and government).