Holy Offseason I Can’t Believe it’s July FA/Trade/Waiver Thread

[hugepatsfan]

If the Celtics stayed over the 2nd apron this year, their 2032 pick would be permanently moved to the end of the 1st round and they wouldn't be able to trade it until the 2032 draft actually happened (at which point they could trade the rights to the player taken). And they'd go into next offseason unable to trade their 2033 pick as it'd be frozen - if they stayed over the 2nd apron again it'd get the same treatment as the 2032 pick and then the penalties would rollover to 2024. By resetting now and presumably staying under the 2nd apron, they'll go into next offseason with no restrictions on those picks.

Losing the ability to trade that 2032 pick would have been a huge nuisance to team building around Tatum/Brown/White for this next window here. Porzingis was a FA after the year anyway and Jrue is aging. Once Tatum got hurt, it pretty much locked in that eventually they'd have to make some type of trade for the next title, ant that's hard to do when your picks are tied up between the 2nd apron and owing a 2029 1st already. It simply wasn't worth those BASKETBALL penalties to stay in the 2nd apron with Tatum out. Even with Tatum back it made sense to duck the penalties but also moving around the Simons/Niang/Hauser pieces for front court depth to balance (and Al probably takes less to stay in that case too).

The really important revelation is that Stevens said we aren't worried about resetting repeater rates? That may just be lip service, but still a pretty positive sign. I still have the concern that at some point paying repeater vs. regular tax rates is going to mean they pass on one addition/resigning/whatever and it comes back to bite them, so I'd have preferred a clean slate, but that comes with it's own set of challenges. Likely costs assets to dip below the tax this year and limits your team building next year.

Brad's a smart guy though. I assume the way it goes is that he gets an understanding of how much ownership will spend over the next X years, what yearly breakout they're ok with, etc. From there, if he's saying ducking the tax to reset repeater rates these next 2 years isn't a concern, then I give him the benefit of the doubt that he seriously pondered the implications and decided that he'll be able to realistically build championship caliber roster(s) within ownership's spending guidelines even at repeat rates. If he doesn't think he needs to reset it so he can stretch money further, I trust his judgement there.

[flintsky21]

Good presser by Brad.

I've now come to terms with entering the season with this current group of bigs, yet somehow I'm still optimistic that if that group just do the bare minimum big men stuff like rebounding, rim protection, setting screens, catching lobs, etc, that we'll have adequate scoring from the 4 other positions.

I'm most gonna be excited with Simons and Scheierman and even Hugo, although I'm not sure where his minutes are gonna come from if everybody's healthy.

Looking forward to a fun season with less expectations and less stress lol

[Hal14]

Also. Can we cool down on Amari? He's on a two way. He isn't going to be in the rotation this year.

Quetta/Tillman/Garza with Niang as a small ball 5 are the real options.


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Brad's words here seem to indicate Amari will have a chance for some rotation mins:

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Peterson was on a 2-way last year and got some solid rotational mins. The year before Queta got rotation mins when he was on a 2-way. And this season with it being a bridge year, lower expectations, we won't really be a contender and how thin we are at C, it would be pretty surprising if Amari doesn't get any rotation mins.

Many other players around the league in recent years have gotten rotation mins when they started the year on a 2-way (Jose Alvarado, Austin Reaves, GG Jackson, Vince Williams Jr, Duop Reath, Duncan Robinson, Scottie Pippen Jr, Jared Butler, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, etc.)

If they feel that strongly about Amari than just give him a deal if he shows something in SL. Next season he'll cost more anyway because everything goes up in life.

People said the same thing with Peterson last year and Queta the year before that. It usually doesn't happen (a 2-way guy getting converted) until late in the year.

Better to maintain that flexibility. Having a rotational guy on a 2-way, that basically increases the size of your roster by 1 - while getting to pay the guy less $ so you're saving $ and keeping the flexibility of being able to release him at any time if things go sideways (you never know, he could get hurt, his performance could drop off, he could start having off court issues, etc.) and 2-ways contracts are non-guaranteed - you can waive the guy at any time, with zero penalty. Which is why teams typically like to fill all their 2-way slots and only convert a guy from their 2-way if they really have to.

[WeLikeOurGuys]

This could genuinely be one of the Celtics’ weakest frontcourt rotations to open a season since before the Kevin Garnett trade. Given the current depth and injury concerns, even someone like Amir Johnson from the 2016 squad might start over this group.

I like them all getting real burn this year, results be damned. This will be the only season we can do this.

I like them all getting burn if we had a legitmate everyday starter which we don't currently have.
If you told me we were bringing back Al and some of these guys were just going to have larger bench roles, fine — I could live with that. But relying on them to be everyday starters? That’s a recipe for disaster.

[redslastlaugh]

I dont think it's that bad. We went to gm six in the conference Finals with Theis, Kanter, young Rob coming off the hip, & rookie Grant Williams.

2021 frontcourt was the worst I've seen in Brad Stevens era.

2021 frontcourt (outside of Rob) with Tristan Thompson, jumpshooting version of Luke Kornet, Tacko Fall and Theis was so bad lol, gosh it was bad. Rob was hurt with the toe, so that brought things to a head, but that 2021 frontcourt was soooo bad it lost Danny and Brad their jobs.

This could genuinely be one of the Celtics’ weakest frontcourt rotations to open a season since before the Kevin Garnett trade. Given the current depth and injury concerns, even someone like Amir Johnson from the 2016 squad might start over this group.


It’s honestly that bad — and outside of Tatum, this might be one of the worst frontcourts in the league right now.

You're looking at something like: Center: Garza / Queta /Williams
PF: Tillman/Niang/Minot?

[165bows]

Man this team is going to shoot a ton of threes lol

[Celts17Pride]

Man this team is going to shoot a ton of threes lol

What else is new?

[winsomme2]

The question that I wish was asked is if there was currently an offer out to Big Al.

It’s a little unclear if they made an offer and now moved on or if there is an active offer out there and it’s one of the ones Al is considering.

If we believe Brad that the team trying just as hard to make the playoffs this year and they are not just going into cost cutting mode, then we are a way better spot for Al than GS.

[Celts17Pride]

Good presser by Brad.

I've now come to terms with entering the season with this current group of bigs, yet somehow I'm still optimistic that if that group just do the bare minimum big men stuff like rebounding, rim protection, setting screens, catching lobs, etc, that we'll have adequate scoring from the 4 other positions.

I'm most gonna be excited with Simons and Scheierman and even Hugo, although I'm not sure where his minutes are gonna come from if everybody's healthy.

Looking forward to a fun season with less expectations and less stress lol

Just have to put up with Boston talk radio wondering if the Celtics are winning too much.

[Gant]

Some notable info from that press conference:

Chisolm has told Brad to prioritize building the team (not money).

Stevens sees Garza and Minott as having talent, unrealized upside, and have a chance to be very impactful. They were stuck behind very very players. He particularly mentioned both being very good rebounders.

He had a lot of positive things to say about Simons and Niang as well. Simons is an elite shot maker and can get better.

The team is going to play differently next year. Some of the experimentation towards finding a new style will be seen in summer league.

There's no thought of tank or soft tank or any other tank at this time. "Compete like hell to win the next game."

There is no timeline for Tatum to return, and there won't be. He'll come back when he's fully ready.

The new and previously inexperienced big man rotation will have the opportunity to show what they've got.

me: It'll be a high energy team next season.


Ryan Bernardoni:
‪

@byjayking.bsky.social and @johnkaralis.com asked this question and Brad gave a clear "repeater tax is a thing but not a TOP priority" answer.

That along with his answer to the question before make it sound like the team they have could reasonably be the team they enter the season with.

You know he has to say that to the fanbase.

I'm not sure what in all that you're referring to specifically, but every statement Brad Stevens has ever made has been candid.

The conspiracy theory mindset is something to avoid.

[Gant]

Man this team is going to shoot a ton of threes lol

They will, but there will be new wrinkles. This is going to be interesting.

[165bows]

Some notable info from that press conference:

Chisolm has told Brad to prioritize building the team (not money).

Stevens sees Garza and Minott as having talent, unrealized upside, and have a chance to be very impactful. They were stuck behind very very players. He particularly mentioned both being very good rebounders.

He had a lot of positive things to say about Simons and Niang as well. Simons is an elite shot maker and can get better.

The team is going to play differently next year. Some of the experimentation towards finding a new style will be seen in summer league.

There's no thought of tank or soft tank or any other tank at this time. "Compete like hell to win the next game."

There is no timeline for Tatum to return, and there won't be. He'll come back when he's fully ready.

The new and previously inexperienced big man rotation will have the opportunity to show what they've got.

me: It'll be a high energy team next season.


Ryan Bernardoni:
‪

You know he has to say that to the fanbase.

I'm not sure what in all that you're referring to specifically, but every statement Brad Stevens has ever made has been candid.

The conspiracy theory mindset is something to avoid.

Nah the conspiracy theory mindset has been the winner over many years at this point but when it comes to Brad Stevens I agree it’s not hard to interpret what he’s saying and it’s pretty straight up.

[Shak_Celts]

If Brad is being totally straight with us about us all knowing this moving of players was coming, then why did he sign Jrue to that extension?

They may have kept the band together, if not for tatum’s injury, but that it was going to be a difficult decision, probably based on how we ended that series. Maybe they would have moved KP instead of both of them. I think it was harder for him to move jrue, by the way that he speaks about him.

There were other moves to be made if JT didn’t go down.

That’s what I thought too but it sounds like what Brad is saying is that getting below the second apron was always going to happen this off season either way…

Maybe I’m hearing that wrong but that’s kinda how it’s coming across.

Yes, I’m saying there were other ways to achieve that. It was always going to hurt, as was said, but I think it would have been a different route. Remember, the Jrue deal didn’t save the money. It was from KP alone that nearly got us under. We could have moved a couple more of the smaller contracts instead of both of them. There were other avenues, because I believe we were always getting off of KP, I think Jrue is only gone because of the Tatum injury.

[Hal14]

My prediction?

This is pretty much what the roster will look like on opening night.

Except we're gonna get under 2nd apron. We're just barely over, so all we gotta do is trade/waive either Tillman/Walsh/JD. If it's Tillman, then we'd have to get another big. So then we'd still have to end up dumping either Walsh/JD to get back under 2nd apron and get back down to 14 players on the standard roster.

So do we keep Tillman or no? I'd say it's a 50/50. We might keep him. But at the same time, he's not some young kid with upside we're developing. And he was pretty much useless last season on the court. So it's almost like a wasted roster spot..so I could see them dumping him and picking up another big who has upside and/or is more likely to provide some on court value.

As for who gets dumped between JD and Walsh, it could go either way I think. Walsh has shown more and played more during non-garbage time mins. However, JD plays a position/role we have a greater need for. Like we if lose JD, we might need to acquire another PG/ball handler to make up for that loss. But if Walsh is dumped? We lose nothing. We have plenty of other wings.

We probably won't know for sure which of these 3 is staying/going till after summer league. If Walsh does really well at SL, he's probably staying (or he has raised his trade value enough that we could get some value in return for him) but if he struggles, I figure he could get dumped via trade or get waived right after SL ends.

[Shak_Celts]

My prediction?

This is pretty much what the roster will look like on opening night.

Except we're gonna get under 2nd apron. We're just barely over, so all we gotta do is trade/waive either Tillman/Walsh/JD. If it's Tillman, then we'd have to get another big. So then we'd still have to end up dumping either Walsh/JD to get back under 2nd apron and get back down to 14 players on the standard roster.

So do we keep Tillman or no? I'd say it's a 50/50. We might keep him. But at the same time, he's not some young kid with upside we're developing. And he was pretty much useless last season on the court. So it's almost like a wasted roster spot..so I could see them dumping him and picking up another big who has upside and/or is more likely to provide some on court value.

As for who gets dumped between JD and Walsh, it could go either way I think. Walsh has shown more and played more during non-garbage time mins. However, JD plays a position/role we have a greater need for. Like we if lose JD, we might need to acquire another PG/ball handler to make up for that loss. But if Walsh is dumped? We lose nothing. We have plenty of other wings.

We probably won't know for sure which of these 3 is staying/going till after summer league. If Walsh does really well at SL, he's probably staying (or he has raised his trade value enough that we could get some value in return for him) but if he struggles, I figure he could get dumped via trade or get waived right after SL ends.

We don’t have to get under now though. Since it’s only 300k, they can easily get off that by mid season.

The way Brad was talking I thought maybe we have wrong numbers because he spoke like we were already under. I was confused. I had hoped someone would ask him when we were going to try to get off the rest of the money, but no one did.

[165bows]

Why did people hate Niang again?

Confused by that he’s prob the best front court player right now.

[yeleven11]

The question that I wish was asked is if there was currently an offer out to Big Al.

It’s a little unclear if they made an offer and now moved on or if there is an active offer out there and it’s one of the ones Al is considering.

If we believe Brad that the team trying just as hard to make the playoffs this year and they are not just going into cost cutting mode, then we are a way better spot for Al than GS.

He said “i dont know what im allowed to say yet” or something like that so it sounds like he knows Al is either retiring or already decided on a new home (GS).

[bigfoot_cryptozoology]

Smart could go Full Heel with the Evil Lakers...

Read on Twitter

[Celts17Pride]

My prediction?

This is pretty much what the roster will look like on opening night.

Except we're gonna get under 2nd apron. We're just barely over, so all we gotta do is trade/waive either Tillman/Walsh/JD. If it's Tillman, then we'd have to get another big. So then we'd still have to end up dumping either Walsh/JD to get back under 2nd apron and get back down to 14 players on the standard roster.

So do we keep Tillman or no? I'd say it's a 50/50. We might keep him. But at the same time, he's not some young kid with upside we're developing. And he was pretty much useless last season on the court. So it's almost like a wasted roster spot..so I could see them dumping him and picking up another big who has upside and/or is more likely to provide some on court value.

As for who gets dumped between JD and Walsh, it could go either way I think. Walsh has shown more and played more during non-garbage time mins. However, JD plays a position/role we have a greater need for. Like we if lose JD, we might need to acquire another PG/ball handler to make up for that loss. But if Walsh is dumped? We lose nothing. We have plenty of other wings.

We probably won't know for sure which of these 3 is staying/going till after summer league. If Walsh does really well at SL, he's probably staying (or he has raised his trade value enough that we could get some value in return for him) but if he struggles, I figure he could get dumped via trade or get waived right after SL ends.

Hal, it's still just the beginning of the off-season. Things can take many different turns. if the Celtics sign Lillard then it will probably be for the $5+ million tax payer MLE which means they would have to move a player. If the Celtics sign Lillard then maybe Big Al Horford comes back. Many vets like Smart, Vucevic, Love etc. could be bought out. I'm not saying any of those moves will happen. Just saying there is still a lot to be played out this off-season.

[Shak_Celts]

Smart could go Full Heel with the Evil Lakers...

Read on Twitter

Nooooooooooooo!!!!