RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #1 — 2013 LeBron James
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1 - 2009 Lebron James
2 - 2003 Tim Duncan
3 - 1962 Bill Russell
Honest I feel like the votes putting MJ ahead are basically justifying the #1 for me. One is avoiding 1 year anything probably because 2009 has the GOAT weird stats crazy on/off and has the Cavs go from like 60 wins to 15. Two are listing stats which literally have Lebron ahead but are just ignoring that.
But whatever. Lebron's obviously on a different level on defense and in terms of passing and this Lebron has the best stats and the best impact and the only thing people really have to say is that he lost while averaging a 30 point triple double vs a great defense. Also it sort of matters he's doing it against way more talent. Feel like no one would be questioning this as #1 if the Cavs just win so I'm not going to change my mind just because Lebron's team let him down. Like pretty much everyone going for MJ loves stuff like PER or whatever but then ignores that 2009 is just waaay ahead of everyone in all those stats in the playoffs and right at the top before that.
Like you're talking about the best regular season ever. And then Lebron goes from 28 to 35 and his true-shooting actually goes up. I feel like if you're just going to add GOAT scoring to the GOAT RS that's the #1 peak
Duncan has one of the biggest carry jobs ever where he puts up great stats and impact without much help. And he's just winning 60 games with no one else really over and over. In 03 his stats go up in the playoffs to and he's beating Kobe/Shaq. You could def put other guys there but I feel like he's a good pick.
Finally there's the old guy. Like this is an all-time list so I feel like I can't just vote players I've seen. If you're going to go with an old guy you should maybe go with the one with 11 championships even some on weak teams against great opponents instead of the one with 6 rings who only really won with great teams. I'm picking 1962 because that year Russell has his best stats but I could def be wrong there.
2 - 2003 Tim Duncan
3 - 1962 Bill Russell
Honest I feel like the votes putting MJ ahead are basically justifying the #1 for me. One is avoiding 1 year anything probably because 2009 has the GOAT weird stats crazy on/off and has the Cavs go from like 60 wins to 15. Two are listing stats which literally have Lebron ahead but are just ignoring that.
But whatever. Lebron's obviously on a different level on defense and in terms of passing and this Lebron has the best stats and the best impact and the only thing people really have to say is that he lost while averaging a 30 point triple double vs a great defense. Also it sort of matters he's doing it against way more talent. Feel like no one would be questioning this as #1 if the Cavs just win so I'm not going to change my mind just because Lebron's team let him down. Like pretty much everyone going for MJ loves stuff like PER or whatever but then ignores that 2009 is just waaay ahead of everyone in all those stats in the playoffs and right at the top before that.
Like you're talking about the best regular season ever. And then Lebron goes from 28 to 35 and his true-shooting actually goes up. I feel like if you're just going to add GOAT scoring to the GOAT RS that's the #1 peak
Duncan has one of the biggest carry jobs ever where he puts up great stats and impact without much help. And he's just winning 60 games with no one else really over and over. In 03 his stats go up in the playoffs to and he's beating Kobe/Shaq. You could def put other guys there but I feel like he's a good pick.
Finally there's the old guy. Like this is an all-time list so I feel like I can't just vote players I've seen. If you're going to go with an old guy you should maybe go with the one with 11 championships even some on weak teams against great opponents instead of the one with 6 rings who only really won with great teams. I'm picking 1962 because that year Russell has his best stats but I could def be wrong there.
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Lebron: ‘09; Lebron ‘13; Lebron ’18 (despite the '16 chip, the '18 playoff performance is an all timer)
Plays 1 to 5 both sides and at his peak was good to elite at everything but the jumper (and that got pretty good eventually too). Just an all-around complete player with an all-around complete resume. 2009 is the literal #1 in pretty much all the fancy stats for the playoffs and hard to argue with a team going from 60 to 20 when you leave. The best post-season player of all time, mostly let down by teammates (other than 2011, but we don't talk about that). In terms of raw gravity, '18 feels like his best year, averaging roughly 34 points per round in the playoffs (just under in the ECF), but the eye test can't let me put '09 lebron lower. Also,
MJ: ‘88 or '92
Despite having 6 chips through the 90s, I think his best season was '88, as did a few others in this thread. As someone mentioned already, he won MVP, Defensive MVP, and got the Scoring Title that season. Won't repeat his stats as it's above already, but arguably the best regular season of all time. If we want to focus on playoff performance, '92 must be mentioned as well.
Steph Curry: ‘16
The devil named Curry. Arguably his best season, and if it wasn't for the Cavs and some injuries, they could have gotten the 4 chips in a row (if K Love doesn't get hurt in '15, could be another different story so...) Being the first unanimous MVP and breaking the wins-record are good reasons to be included in the top single year peaks regardless, but the gravity of defense this man commanded that season was unmatched. We knew he was a force in 2015, but teams were more prepared for him in '16, and he still was unreal.
Plays 1 to 5 both sides and at his peak was good to elite at everything but the jumper (and that got pretty good eventually too). Just an all-around complete player with an all-around complete resume. 2009 is the literal #1 in pretty much all the fancy stats for the playoffs and hard to argue with a team going from 60 to 20 when you leave. The best post-season player of all time, mostly let down by teammates (other than 2011, but we don't talk about that). In terms of raw gravity, '18 feels like his best year, averaging roughly 34 points per round in the playoffs (just under in the ECF), but the eye test can't let me put '09 lebron lower. Also,
MJ: ‘88 or '92
Despite having 6 chips through the 90s, I think his best season was '88, as did a few others in this thread. As someone mentioned already, he won MVP, Defensive MVP, and got the Scoring Title that season. Won't repeat his stats as it's above already, but arguably the best regular season of all time. If we want to focus on playoff performance, '92 must be mentioned as well.
Steph Curry: ‘16
The devil named Curry. Arguably his best season, and if it wasn't for the Cavs and some injuries, they could have gotten the 4 chips in a row (if K Love doesn't get hurt in '15, could be another different story so...) Being the first unanimous MVP and breaking the wins-record are good reasons to be included in the top single year peaks regardless, but the gravity of defense this man commanded that season was unmatched. We knew he was a force in 2015, but teams were more prepared for him in '16, and he still was unreal.
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People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
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Special_Puppy wrote:People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
Really? Bill Russell is like Jordan with 5 more rings and his team didn't win 50 something games when he retired. I feel like if anything the guys creating all these weird stats to say Jordan is better are overthinking it.
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Special_Puppy wrote:People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
Lebron does. Jordan does not. He's unlikely to make my top 3.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
Really? Bill Russell is like Jordan with 5 more rings and his team didn't win 50 something games when he retired. I feel like if anything the guys creating all these weird stats to say Jordan is better are overthinking it.
In general I find winning 6 rings in a 27-29 team league more impressive than winning 11 in a 8-14 team league. The difficult of winning rings increases as the size of the league goes up. I also don't find the stats in DraymondGold's post very weird. Just a more structured way of looking at the data we all look at. We all look at box score data somewhat and BPM is just a structured way of doing that. We all look at how a team does with and without a player and on/off+WOWY just looks at that in a more structured way.
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One_and_Done wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
Lebron does. Jordan does not. He's unlikely to make my top 3.
What are your objections to DraymondGold's post laying out the statistical case for Jordan?
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I'm not sure about the playtype tracking being posted for Jordan's favour....
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1285018141067575456/1392225341820502076/IMG_0871.png?ex=686ec263&is=686d70e3&hm=8bac937db9e04af9f684e786ebd8eaccaee988a0d1768c3af3a737f6e2efa913&
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1285018141067575456/1392225341820502076/IMG_0871.png?ex=686ec263&is=686d70e3&hm=8bac937db9e04af9f684e786ebd8eaccaee988a0d1768c3af3a737f6e2efa913&
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Special_Puppy wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
Really? Bill Russell is like Jordan with 5 more rings and his team didn't win 50 something games when he retired. I feel like if anything the guys creating all these weird stats to say Jordan is better are overthinking it.
In general I find winning 6 rings in a 27-29 team league more impressive than winning 11 in a 8-14 team league. The difficult of winning rings increases as the size of the league goes up.
Statistically the latter is less likely
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Special_Puppy wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
Really? Bill Russell is like Jordan with 5 more rings and his team didn't win 50 something games when he retired. I feel like if anything the guys creating all these weird stats to say Jordan is better are overthinking it.
In general I find winning 6 rings in a 27-29 team league more impressive than winning 11 in a 8-14 team league. The difficult of winning rings increases as the size of the league goes up. I also don't find the stats in DraymondGold's post very weird. Just a more structured way of looking at the data we all look at. We all look at box score data somewhat and BPM is just a structured way of doing that. We all look at how a team does with and without a player and on/off+WOWY just looks at that in a more structured way.
but WOWY doesn't think MJ is top 2 lol.
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things i care about:
possession efficiency: how much more/less efficient is the player making their/the opposing team's possessions via:
1. 2009 LeBron James
2. 1991 Michael Jordan
i think these two are pretty neck and neck in terms of impacting offensive efficiency (09 bron does not separate himself from the pack in terms of scoring like jordan did, but makes up the gap with his playmaking imo) and possession volume (mj the GOAT at this, but bron in this particular year is very very good and adds real rebounding value), but do think bron's near big level rim protection tips him over the edge. as we get more and more 90s data, jordan keeps looking better and better though, so maybe i can change on this.
3. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
tbh i don't really like talking about pre-databall players, but they're in the pool. a jordan level scorer who's also a beanpole rim protector, i don't really see a better player out there. he doesn't supplement it with elite playmaking or turnover economy, so he's not #1.
possession efficiency: how much more/less efficient is the player making their/the opposing team's possessions via:
- scoring
playmaking
spacing
rim protection
etc.
- not turning the ball over
steals
rebounds
etc.
1. 2009 LeBron James
2. 1991 Michael Jordan
i think these two are pretty neck and neck in terms of impacting offensive efficiency (09 bron does not separate himself from the pack in terms of scoring like jordan did, but makes up the gap with his playmaking imo) and possession volume (mj the GOAT at this, but bron in this particular year is very very good and adds real rebounding value), but do think bron's near big level rim protection tips him over the edge. as we get more and more 90s data, jordan keeps looking better and better though, so maybe i can change on this.
3. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
tbh i don't really like talking about pre-databall players, but they're in the pool. a jordan level scorer who's also a beanpole rim protector, i don't really see a better player out there. he doesn't supplement it with elite playmaking or turnover economy, so he's not #1.
10 nash/09 daniels
05 ginobili
06 battier/12 iguodala
08 kg/11 dirk
07 duncan
05 ginobili
06 battier/12 iguodala
08 kg/11 dirk
07 duncan
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Special_Puppy wrote:One_and_Done wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:People not putting Jordan and or LeBron in their top 2 are overthinking it. Both have fairly clear separation from everyone else in the consensus of metrics (with a caveat that there is more uncertainty in evaluating players the further back in time you go)
Lebron does. Jordan does not. He's unlikely to make my top 3.
What are your objections to DraymondGold's post laying out the statistical case for Jordan?
I'm not really moved by walls of advanced stats. I don't think they're a terribly reliable way to assess impact.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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OhayoKD wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Really? Bill Russell is like Jordan with 5 more rings and his team didn't win 50 something games when he retired. I feel like if anything the guys creating all these weird stats to say Jordan is better are overthinking it.
In general I find winning 6 rings in a 27-29 team league more impressive than winning 11 in a 8-14 team league. The difficult of winning rings increases as the size of the league goes up.
Statistically the latter is less likely
Just want to comment and say that your right. (played around with this under very simple assumptions) https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability
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IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Really? Bill Russell is like Jordan with 5 more rings and his team didn't win 50 something games when he retired. I feel like if anything the guys creating all these weird stats to say Jordan is better are overthinking it.
In general I find winning 6 rings in a 27-29 team league more impressive than winning 11 in a 8-14 team league. The difficult of winning rings increases as the size of the league goes up. I also don't find the stats in DraymondGold's post very weird. Just a more structured way of looking at the data we all look at. We all look at box score data somewhat and BPM is just a structured way of doing that. We all look at how a team does with and without a player and on/off+WOWY just looks at that in a more structured way.
but WOWY doesn't think MJ is top 2 lol.
Across all 5 WOWY metrics, Jordan looks the best among the candidates seriously discussed for this spot
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Special_Puppy wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:
In general I find winning 6 rings in a 27-29 team league more impressive than winning 11 in a 8-14 team league. The difficult of winning rings increases as the size of the league goes up. I also don't find the stats in DraymondGold's post very weird. Just a more structured way of looking at the data we all look at. We all look at box score data somewhat and BPM is just a structured way of doing that. We all look at how a team does with and without a player and on/off+WOWY just looks at that in a more structured way.
but WOWY doesn't think MJ is top 2 lol.
Across all 5 WOWY metrics, Jordan looks the best among the candidates seriously discussed for this spot
he looks best across 3 strange ones and not close in the real one. I don't want to be cynical but uh not trusting that adjustment whatever
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IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:but WOWY doesn't think MJ is top 2 lol.
Across all 5 WOWY metrics, Jordan looks the best among the candidates seriously discussed for this spot
he looks best across 3 strange ones and not close in the real one. I don't want to be cynical but uh not trusting that adjustment whatever
May I ask which one is the 'real' one?
I bought a boat.
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OhayoKD wrote:What an interesting way to phrase "gets torched by Lebron's 09 run per rate in all numbers I like". So much so, your only real retort is arguing it doesn't count
I'm not saying it doesn't count. I'm saying it's a pretty damn obvious outlier.
It doesn't get much clearer than that when he doesn't ever come close to that 14-game stretch again.
Let's add 2020 + 2021 Donovan Mitchell as a GOAT level scorer while we're at it. Peak 33.9 ppg on +7.1 rTS across 17 playoff games.
Only irrational people can actually believe that Lebron is anywhere close as a scorer. Your argument is comedy as always.
And 1991 Jordan clears him in Box Creation and cTOV% as well.
Ignoring of course Lebron was en-route to a better year (by common box-score) next season before he injured his elbow
Nobody cares about hypotheticals.
Jordan played the 1991 postseason with knee tendinitis. "If he was healthy he would have averaged 36/10/10..."
Nah we ain't doing that. The 2010 Celtics series happened as much as you wish it hadn't.
:88-98
+1.1 drtg difference
90-99
+0.2 drtg difference
85-98
-1.1 drtg difference
84-99
-.5 drtg difference
I don't know what those numbers are.
Give me a list of non-elite SG defenders who:
- have a 39.0 dFG% while contesting almost no threes
- averaged 2.4 steals and 1.5 deflections per game
- averaged 1.4 blocks per game
- have at least a moderate defensive load while guarding all-stars like Hersey Hawkins, Joe Dumars and Magic Johnson
- made 1st Team All-Defense and tied for 7th in DPOY voting
I'll wait for that list but I don't think it's coming...
Besides if Jordan's impact stats look that good and he's a subpar defender then he must be the offensive GOAT by a comically large margin as opposed to a small margin. Something's got to give.
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eminence wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:
Across all 5 WOWY metrics, Jordan looks the best among the candidates seriously discussed for this spot
he looks best across 3 strange ones and not close in the real one. I don't want to be cynical but uh not trusting that adjustment whatever
May I ask which one is the 'real' one?
the Raw ones I guess? Also I've been sent alot of different WOWYs since I got here so like I tune it out after a while. I know Lebron is like 2nd behind steph in a career one and he has a ridiculous 13 year one and alot of crazy 1 year stuff.
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Peaks
VOTE BILL RUSSELL 1969
this is p easy. He won 11 rings as the best player by faar and was so good ppl been strugglin hard to come up with any kinda arg against the season when he was bout to retire. Man literally crusshes superteams with bad help n was also the coach. He also was facin craazy comp
Idrg how u can arg against a guy who won way more than every1 and also won with less help. Team went bitw to bad without him when he was supposed to be waashed. If you got him low coz the league sucked i get you. But ppl sayin they era-relative and not havin russ 1 is cap. He only ever lost when hurt and he stay winnin even when his teammates sucked facin the death-star. Ez 1 for me.
I'm gonna vote 49 MIKAN for 2
This is also p simple. He was waay better than everyone else in a waay no one else was, was the best on o and d, and won 7 rings.
ik we dont got data, but he won the 2nd most and he was way better than every1 else. Seems like a simple 2 to me.
Hope that was good![/quote]
3 is 2016 Lebron. Beating 73 win teams with weak help is GOAT stuff. Best Impact after Russ.
VOTE BILL RUSSELL 1969
this is p easy. He won 11 rings as the best player by faar and was so good ppl been strugglin hard to come up with any kinda arg against the season when he was bout to retire. Man literally crusshes superteams with bad help n was also the coach. He also was facin craazy comp
ut this doesn't mean anything of itself. For the KD parallel to work, the Celtics need to be great(relative to the comp) without Russell. Nothing suggests this is true beyond the Celtics first few titles(i listed the different stuff in my previous post). Crucially everything we have suggests the opposite was true in 1969, and here the competition is far better than "not weak".
Assuming you are not trying to break era-relativity, here are 3-ways we can look at opposition strength
1. Look at how the teams look relative to the league for the era(bullets and knicks are outliers by srs, Lakers are close)
2. Look at how the comp was relative to the league that season(Celtics beat the best, 2nd best and 4th best opponent they could have had by SRS)
3. Look at how the comp was in surrounding seasons(Knicks SRS doubles en-route to a championship the following year, Bullets and Lakers srs drops but they take the Knicks to 7 and LA win a championship and make 3 finals)
By any of these approaches the Celtics faced an all-time difficult gauntlet and there is absolutely nothing to suggest the Celtics were some stacked super-squad. "Competition" is not a serious argument here. Bill went through just about the hardest possible route, with weak support, in a year where the best teams were unusually good. Not sure how that doesn't get him to a tier 1(era-relative) peak unless you arbitrarily decide to curve 1969 down to what feels reasonable without scaling the other title-winning years up.
Idrg how u can arg against a guy who won way more than every1 and also won with less help. Team went bitw to bad without him when he was supposed to be waashed. If you got him low coz the league sucked i get you. But ppl sayin they era-relative and not havin russ 1 is cap. He only ever lost when hurt and he stay winnin even when his teammates sucked facin the death-star. Ez 1 for me.
I'm gonna vote 49 MIKAN for 2
This is also p simple. He was waay better than everyone else in a waay no one else was, was the best on o and d, and won 7 rings.
George Mikan (1924) "Mr. Basketball", 6'10" center, the first true big man, 7 total pro titles with Chicago Gears & Lakers
Image
Origin: Illinois
College: DePaul
Series Wins: 23
All-League 1st Team: 8 times
Star-Prime: 8 seasons
POY wins: 8, POY shares: 8.0
OPOY wins: 3, OPOY shares: 3.8
DPOY wins: 6, DPOY shares: 6.2
The obvious top player from the era so maybe not a ton to be gleaned from going into further detail, but some observations:
- Mikan appears to have been the best offensive player in pro basketball basically from the time he turned pro. Eventually others arrive in the league to top him, but he remains elite until the rule change of 1951 that widened the key from 6 to 12 feet specifically to stop him. From that point onward, while Mikan likely remained the best rebounder in the world, it seems that the rule change did have the desired effect.
- Mikan almost certainly would have been an even more impactful defender from the jump if not for the banning of goaltending. As it was, it seems like it took Mikan some time to re-optimize his defensive play. He had a recurring issue of foul trouble that was often the Achilles heel for his teams win the lost.
- So far as I can tell, Mikan's defensive dominance in the NBA was less about shotblocking and more about rebounding. Certainly the shotblocking threat was there to a degree, but in a league with such weak shooting percentage, rebounding was arguably king.
ik we dont got data, but he won the 2nd most and he was way better than every1 else. Seems like a simple 2 to me.
Hope that was good![/quote]
3 is 2016 Lebron. Beating 73 win teams with weak help is GOAT stuff. Best Impact after Russ.
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Djoker wrote:OhayoKD wrote:
Ignoring of course Lebron was en-route to a better year (by common box-score) next season before he injured his elbow
Nobody cares about hypotheticals.
Jordan played the 1991 postseason with knee tendinitis. "If he was healthy he would have averaged 36/10/10..."
Nah we ain't doing that. The 2010 Celtics series happened as much as you wish it hadn't.
Now, how about let's compare 2010 peak Bron to 1991 peak Jordan (using Lebron's 2nd worst series game and Jordan's 2 best ones)
Elpolo_14 wrote:Spoiler:
That's Lebron. Now Jordan's two best series games..
Elpolo_14 wrote:Spoiler:
[/quote]Top10alltime wrote:Spoiler:
Hobbled Lebron in his 2nd worst series game was better than Jordan in his best series of the year in his 2 best games. You can make up all the excuses you want to, but it won't change how that peak Lebron was better than peak Jordan.