RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #1 — 2013 LeBron James
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Very simple exercise. Decided to use 538's RAPTOR Metric since its the best historical metric available for players since the merger. Decided to look at each players RAPTOR WAR where a player's best season is weighted 100%, a player's 2nd best season is weighted 90%, a player's 3rd best season is weighted 80%, etc. Also weighted playoffs twice as much. Jordan ended up 1st with 172 peak WAR. LeBron ended up 2nd with 157 peak WAR. 3rd place is Stockton with 134 peak WAR. 10th place is Harden with 115 peak WAR. So pretty sizable gap between Jordan+LeBron and everyone else with Jordan probably being a step ahead of LeBron peak wise
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IlikeSHAIguys wrote:eminence wrote:IlikeSHAIguys wrote:he looks best across 3 strange ones and not close in the real one. I don't want to be cynical but uh not trusting that adjustment whatever
May I ask which one is the 'real' one?
the Raw ones I guess? Also I've been sent alot of different WOWYs since I got here so like I tune it out after a while. I know Lebron is like 2nd behind steph in a career one and he has a ridiculous 13 year one and alot of crazy 1 year stuff.
Missed games or team change? In season or off season team change? Win pace or SRS? Single season? 5 Season? No teammate adjustments? '98 MJ a +41 win player?!?!? Etc.
Point being there are always decisions being made that significantly change our 'raw/real' values no matter how simple they are.
With how noisy single season raw team change WOWY is I would personally give it near zero value here. See the discussed '10 LeBron scoring a +42 win pace departing the Cavs, and '11 Bron dropping to a +11 arriving in Miami. It's just not a serious metric for this level of differentiation.
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ShaqAttac wrote:Peaks
VOTE BILL RUSSELL 1969
this is p easy. He won 11 rings as the best player by faar and was so good ppl been strugglin hard to come up with any kinda arg against the season when he was bout to retire. Man literally crusshes superteams with bad help n was also the coach. He also was facin craazy comput this doesn't mean anything of itself. For the KD parallel to work, the Celtics need to be great(relative to the comp) without Russell. Nothing suggests this is true beyond the Celtics first few titles(i listed the different stuff in my previous post). Crucially everything we have suggests the opposite was true in 1969, and here the competition is far better than "not weak".
1969 isn't even Bill Russell's peak, let alone the GOAT peak. 1969 Celtics in that same PO run were carried largely by their offense, not defense.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1331730773618982972/1334282579355897906/IMG_0260.png?ex=686ee6fc&is=686d957c&hm=eb79bc1463dc720193e80e82d9e27b0a58868fc83640bf78b9677cb42450d3eb&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=1498&height=693
+6.4 offense and -0.6 defense!!! In a peak of Bill Russell's where he is supposedly the GOAT defender and in the postseason where he is supposedly a clutch player and playoff riser!! Wow!! Yeah, no, this isn't GOAT peak material. And here's some film to watch...
In this game, a down season from Wilt who wasn't even a top 5 player that season, he outplayed Bill Russell this game even on Bill's best aspect (defense). Notice how Bill doesn't defend after he gets 5 fouls, and is actually worse rim protector!
Simply put, Bill Russell isn't even top 5 peak ever, let alone the GOAT peak.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
I like Williams peak quite a lot, but I don't think it's '69.
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. The Gap is also uh bigger than I figured. But yeah Lebron-ball is fake news ngl. Like we see here Lebron can be the most impactful playmaker even when Kyrie Irving is holding the ball more:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210707132926/https://backpicks.com/2017/06/27/star-player-effects-on-teammate-efficiency/
Anyway it's not really changing anything with Lebron but I'm just going to say I think newer players are mostly better today with all the advancements and foreign talent and all that. So this isn't going to be the most old person friendly list.
Lebron - 2009,
2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020
best peak, best prime, best career. King of RAPM and WOWY. Great defense AND goat offense. He’s gives you the best deal to win what can I say?
Curry - 2016
2017, 2015, 2022
Wow. I mean yeah Lebron playmaking more makes sense but if I divide this right MJ is bringing the ball up more? That really isn't what I thought it would be
completely changed the game. goat offense. Letting him shoot isn’t a deal you should take. Underrated handles and a talented passer too. Most skilled player ever?
Giannis - 2021
2019, 2020, 2022
Two-way monster. Best defender and can score 30. You should take that deal. Won a ring with kris middleton and jrue bledsoe. Kris middleton and Jrue Bledsoe. 40 points and amazing defense in the finals.
https://web.archive.org/web/20210707132926/https://backpicks.com/2017/06/27/star-player-effects-on-teammate-efficiency/
Anyway it's not really changing anything with Lebron but I'm just going to say I think newer players are mostly better today with all the advancements and foreign talent and all that. So this isn't going to be the most old person friendly list.
Lebron - 2009,
2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020
best peak, best prime, best career. King of RAPM and WOWY. Great defense AND goat offense. He’s gives you the best deal to win what can I say?
Curry - 2016
2017, 2015, 2022
Elpolo_14 wrote:In comparison to MJ who I think is in the GOAT offensive player as well as Lebron / Curry / MagicMJ when he became the primary Offensive initiator who the one deciding everything offensive pace because he loses Pippen due to injury:
MJ 1989 Game 6 Jordan 13 assist game
RESUME: 69 DTOS,
34 EDTOS,
total poss when MJ on floor - 86
MJ Average 0.80 DTO and 0.39 EDTO. Per possession
And when MJ play in system which he doesn't have the ball as much like lebron in Miami heat situation. To be fairest I pick highest assist game - 13 Assist.
[RESUME Game 2 MJ 1991 offensively Total Possession when MJ was in the floor – 61 Total Possession of play MJ have action both on/off ball – 58 Total Possession of play MJ didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect – 3 Playmaking
DTOs - 41
EDTOs – 17
ADAs – 4
Double - 8
Triple - 0
Création - 14
R’Creation ( Rim ) - 8
P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) - 6
SC ( Screen ) - 0
EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 7
RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 13
BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) – 3
BB ( Bring ball up ) - 22
MJ have 0.67 DTOs and 0.28 EDTOs Per Possession
Lebron creating separation leave the room for his teammate to score. So even when his scoing get lower due to the defense loading on him he able to redirect it for his playmaking to be better. his impact as both floor riser and Ceilling get maximize cause he able to be elite both on/off ball
Wow. I mean yeah Lebron playmaking more makes sense but if I divide this right MJ is bringing the ball up more? That really isn't what I thought it would be
completely changed the game. goat offense. Letting him shoot isn’t a deal you should take. Underrated handles and a talented passer too. Most skilled player ever?
Giannis - 2021
2019, 2020, 2022
Two-way monster. Best defender and can score 30. You should take that deal. Won a ring with kris middleton and jrue bledsoe. Kris middleton and Jrue Bledsoe. 40 points and amazing defense in the finals.
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MJ: ‘88 or '92
Despite having 6 chips through the 90s, I think his best season was '88, as did a few others in this thread. As someone mentioned already, he won MVP, Defensive MVP, and got the Scoring Title that season. Won't repeat his stats as it's above already, but arguably the best regular season of all time. If we want to focus on playoff performance, '92 must be mentioned as well.
Yeah I don’t know about that one friend:
https://sports.yahoo.com/a-closer-look-at-michael-jordans-1988-dpoy-award-raises-questions-about-its-validity-has-lebron-james-been-chasing-a-ghost-140452567.html
There’s a lot of um questionable Jordan stuff flying around to say the least. And that includes this thread tbh
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Bill Russell 62
The most decorated player ever. Won the most. No one talks about him the best but when you think about it. He’s the only player to win as player and coach. The only player to win at least 3 titles with different second best teammates. It was argued well the last minutes matter and Russell always wins those too. And what seals it is he was able to win when he didn’t have great help. Several times. It’s a team sport. But if you’re always winning no matter what. Maybe that says alot about you.
I choose 62 because that year he had his best scoring in the playoffs and they fall 22 points of net rating when he isn’t there. They lost all the games too but I have been informed net is better to use.
Kareem 71
31/3/16.
6 time MVP Kareem Abdul Jabbar the year he leads one of the best teams ever. Great defender. Great attacker. Many say he was the best at both and I have good reason to think that is more accurate than when the same has been said of Lebron or Jordan. They also had highest net rating ever before OKC this year. Great team great player.
2013 James
27/7/8
Almost perfect. Almost DPOY. Almost unanimous. Almost 70 wins. So many almosts. But most importantly he won back to back. I am conflicted on the final. On one hand beating the Spurs is great and Wade was hurt. On the other hand he shot poorly multiple games. If he plays better he could be second. But I will accept him here now.
The most decorated player ever. Won the most. No one talks about him the best but when you think about it. He’s the only player to win as player and coach. The only player to win at least 3 titles with different second best teammates. It was argued well the last minutes matter and Russell always wins those too. And what seals it is he was able to win when he didn’t have great help. Several times. It’s a team sport. But if you’re always winning no matter what. Maybe that says alot about you.
I choose 62 because that year he had his best scoring in the playoffs and they fall 22 points of net rating when he isn’t there. They lost all the games too but I have been informed net is better to use.
Kareem 71
31/3/16.
6 time MVP Kareem Abdul Jabbar the year he leads one of the best teams ever. Great defender. Great attacker. Many say he was the best at both and I have good reason to think that is more accurate than when the same has been said of Lebron or Jordan. They also had highest net rating ever before OKC this year. Great team great player.
2013 James
27/7/8
Almost perfect. Almost DPOY. Almost unanimous. Almost 70 wins. So many almosts. But most importantly he won back to back. I am conflicted on the final. On one hand beating the Spurs is great and Wade was hurt. On the other hand he shot poorly multiple games. If he plays better he could be second. But I will accept him here now.
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Special_Puppy wrote:Very simple exercise. Decided to use 538's RAPTOR Metric since its the best historical metric available for players since the merger. Decided to look at each players RAPTOR WAR where a player's best season is weighted 100%, a player's 2nd best season is weighted 90%, a player's 3rd best season is weighted 80%, etc. Also weighted playoffs twice as much. Jordan ended up 1st with 172 peak WAR. LeBron ended up 2nd with 157 peak WAR. 3rd place is Stockton with 134 career WAR. 10th place is Harden with 115 career WAR. So pretty sizable gap between Jordan+LeBron and everyone else with Jordan probably being a step ahead of LeBron peak wise
Are you talking about two different metrics here? you mentioned "peak WAR" and then "career WAR" so unclear to me if these are different calculations or not
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Top10alltime wrote:Djoker wrote:OhayoKD wrote:
Nobody cares about hypotheticals.
Jordan played the 1991 postseason with knee tendinitis. "If he was healthy he would have averaged 36/10/10..."
Nah we ain't doing that. The 2010 Celtics series happened as much as you wish it hadn't.
Now, how about let's compare 2010 peak Bron to 1991 peak Jordan (using Lebron's 2nd worst series game and Jordan's 2 best ones)Elpolo_14 wrote:Spoiler:
That's Lebron. Now Jordan's two best series games..Elpolo_14 wrote:Spoiler:Top10alltime wrote:Spoiler:
Hobbled Lebron in his 2nd worst series game was better than Jordan in his best series of the year in his 2 best games. You can make up all the excuses you want to, but it won't change how that peak Lebron was better than peak Jordan.
I’m going to be real with you…If you think 2010 LeBron performed better in game 4 against the Celtics than 1991 MJ did in games 1-2 of the finals then that’s a very damning indictment of your methodology and overall process.
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jalengreen wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:Very simple exercise. Decided to use 538's RAPTOR Metric since its the best historical metric available for players since the merger. Decided to look at each players RAPTOR WAR where a player's best season is weighted 100%, a player's 2nd best season is weighted 90%, a player's 3rd best season is weighted 80%, etc. Also weighted playoffs twice as much. Jordan ended up 1st with 172 peak WAR. LeBron ended up 2nd with 157 peak WAR. 3rd place is Stockton with 134 career WAR. 10th place is Harden with 115 career WAR. So pretty sizable gap between Jordan+LeBron and everyone else with Jordan probably being a step ahead of LeBron peak wise
Are you talking about two different metrics here? you mentioned "peak WAR" and then "career WAR" so unclear to me if these are different calculations or not
Meant to say peak war
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Djoker wrote:OhayoKD wrote:What an interesting way to phrase "gets torched by Lebron's 09 run per rate in all numbers I like". So much so, your only real retort is arguing it doesn't count
I'm not saying it doesn't count. I'm saying it's a pretty damn obvious outlier.
It doesn't get much clearer than that when he doesn't ever come close to that 14-game stretch again.
Let's add 2020 + 2021 Donovan Mitchell as a GOAT level scorer while we're at it. Peak 33.9 ppg on +7.1 rTS across 17 playoff games.
Only irrational people can actually believe that Lebron is anywhere close as a scorer. Your argument is comedy as always.
He was that playoff run...unless you are talking...hypothetically.
Ignoring of course Lebron was en-route to a better year (by common box-score) next season before he injured his elbow
Nobody cares about hypotheticals.
Unless it's Lebron's scoring lol.
Give me a list of non-elite SG defenders who:
I see we've retreated from "GOAT perimeter defender" to "elite sg"
Besides if Jordan's impact stats look that good and he's a subpar defender then he must be the offensive GOAT by a comically large margin as opposed to a small margin. Something's got to give.
And by "that good" you mean looking like Magic's bridesmaid?
Special_Puppy wrote:Top10alltime wrote:Djoker wrote:
Now, how about let's compare 2010 peak Bron to 1991 peak Jordan (using Lebron's 2nd worst series game and Jordan's 2 best ones)
That's Lebron. Now Jordan's two best series games..
Hobbled Lebron in his 2nd worst series game was better than Jordan in his best series of the year in his 2 best games. You can make up all the excuses you want to, but it won't change how that peak Lebron was better than peak Jordan.
I’m going to be real with you…If you think 2010 LeBron performed better in game 4 against the Celtics than 1991 MJ did in games 1-2 of the finals then that’s a very damning indictment of your methodology and overall process.
Tfw when you don't have an actual argument
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Special_Puppy wrote:Top10alltime wrote:Hobbled Lebron in his 2nd worst series game was better than Jordan in his best series of the year in his 2 best games. You can make up all the excuses you want to, but it won't change how that peak Lebron was better than peak Jordan.
I’m going to be real with you…If you think 2010 LeBron performed better in game 4 against the Celtics than 1991 MJ did in games 1-2 of the finals then that’s a very damning indictment of your methodology and overall process.
Jordan fans when they get fried.
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Special_Puppy wrote:Very simple exercise. Decided to use 538's RAPTOR Metric since its the best historical metric available for players since the merger. Decided to look at each players RAPTOR WAR where a player's best season is weighted 100%, a player's 2nd best season is weighted 90%, a player's 3rd best season is weighted 80%, etc. Also weighted playoffs twice as much. Jordan ended up 1st with 172 peak WAR. LeBron ended up 2nd with 157 peak WAR. 3rd place is Stockton with 134 career WAR. 10th place is Harden with 115 career WAR. So pretty sizable gap between Jordan+LeBron and everyone else with Jordan probably being a step ahead of LeBron peak wise
Oh that's crazy, I did a very simple exercise too. But instead of WAR I used a cutting edge metric:
Spoiler:
Pretty sizable gap between Oakley and Michael Jordan. Hmmmm
Speaking of simple exercises, what would happen if we make a WOWY adjustment where we "adjust" by looking at how a teammate who leaves does on the team they join next the season after they join. And of course "how they do" is measured by how that new team does when they join?
Spoiler:
I tinkered around actually and can report there are now 30 Prime WOWYs by which peak Jordan looks worse than Rookie Kareem Abdul Jabbar.
What a consensus!!!!!
Yeah let's get to the vote shall we.
64 Bill Russell
-> Leads massive rs outlier with no evidence of impressive help playing way more minutes than everyone
-> RS outlier is dominant in the postseason
-> potential peak of a player who effectively lead two different dynasties with two completely different supporting casts and won back to back against historically strong competition as a player-coach on a roster that seems to have been incapable of making the playoffs without.
I am keeping things mostly era-relative this time around so Russell is a simple 1 to argue for.
But that's not what most people are hear for so let me put my focus on a potential thread winner.
09 Lebron James (second pick would be 2016)
First let's take a look at Lebron in general
konr0167 wrote:lebron 09-21 wowy
656-263 with lebron 0.714% win rate
37-73 without lebron 0.336% win rate
net rating with lebron +6.49 (59 win pace level)
net rating without lebron -5.50 (25 win pace level)
+8.6 ortg difference
-3.68 drtg difference
+12 total swing
Now his competition (for this thread)
jordan 88-98
bulls with MJ 490-176 (73.6% win rate)
bulls without MJ 90-64 (58.4% win rate)
net rating with MJ +7.7 (62 win pace level)
net rating without MJ +3.6 (52 win pace level)
+5.1 ortg difference
+1.1 drtg difference
+4 total swing
Fun-fact, that isn't even the most favorable sample for Lebron. Replace 2021 with 2008, that goes higher. Actually move it back to 2004, ignore him joining a 17-win team and....Lebron still ends up higher.
Lebron is the #2 in career wowy a little behind Steph on 50 percent more minutes. He is also the King of RAPM in almost every data-set and timeframe:
https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/
And (shocker), thus far he looks hilariously better than Jordan when we look at what happens during the whole of a possession as opposed to who touches the ball last:
RESUME Game 1 lebron 2009 offensively Total Possession when bron was in the floor – 75 Total Possession that Lebron have action on/offball - 64 Playmaking -DTOs - 69 -EDTOs – 35
ADAs – 19
-Double - 14 -Triple - 3 -Création - 21 ~ R’Creation ( Rim ) – 7
P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -14
-SC ( Screen ) - 1
EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 12
RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 18
BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) – 1
BB ( Bring ball up ) - 16
Scoring -FGA - 30 -FGM - 20 -M ( midrange ) -11 ( 8/11 ) -P ( Post play ) – 2 ( 1/2 ) -R ( Rim : lay up / dunk ) – 11 ( 8/11 ) -T ( 3pt ) – 6 (3/6 ) -PB ( Putback ) – 0 -FTA - 9 + FTM – 6 -OCT ( Offensive Contest ) - 24 -OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested ) - 6
FD ( Foul draw by defender ) - 8
REBOUND
OREB – 3
OBX – 1
NOBX -2
RESUME Game 2 MJ 1991 offensively Total Possession when MJ was in the floor – 61 Total Possession of play MJ have action both on/off ball – 58 Total Possession of play MJ didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect – 3 Playmaking
DTOs - 41
EDTOs – 17
ADAs – 4
Double - 8
Triple - 0
Création - 14
R’Creation ( Rim ) - 8
P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) - 6
SC ( Screen ) - 0
EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 7
RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 13
BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) – 3
BB ( Bring ball up ) - 22
You might notice Jordan brings the ball up more here. And still cannot register anywhere near as much raw creation.
Nor does he stack up in terms of usage and efficacy as a defender:
Spoiler:
^^^Randomly picked Lebron game
Spoiler:
^^^Per Djoker, an "a" game from Michael Jordan defensively (his only of the series)
Also talk about deterrence to excuse Jordan getting burned completely by Magic, but in all the tracking, Lebron is the only person to make defenders go the opposite side when it' smore crowded > 5 times in a half. And he does it twice.
So. Way better playmaker. Way better defender. Cremates MJ when we look at impact over full games (and seasons). Mostly cremates all comers in RAPM (Jordan's not quite on pace for that). Oh and in the year in question...beats jordan so thoroughly in all-in-ones, that quite literally the only ones which put Jordan higher are the ones that reward him for playing more that specific year.
That loses it's pull pretty quickly when you realize Lebron averaged more minutes over 15 seasons than Jordan did over 30 (not even including the playoffs) and was a bigger ooutlier in terms of minutes played (even excluding Jordan's extended breaks) relative to era.
Djoker just functionally conceded he can't really argue against Lebron's level of play this year. And other people are posting 10-year black box adjustments or using platoon-inflated on/off to argue a 27-win team turned into a 2-win team when they lost a collection of minutes that were massive negatives (collectively) on their following teams.
I could bring up how Lebron has never tried to trade teamamtes for messing with his stats or told coaches he needs to win scoring titles or punched teammates. I could bring up how Lebron's led the #1, #5, and #6 best 4th quarter teams in history in rapid succession (2008, 2009, 2010) (and the #2) on a cavalier team that won 1 of 15 games he didn't play in.
I could bring up how he's a better off-ball player:
Spoiler:
But do I need to? Like really, do I?
I think there's no better tell to how silly this comparison is, then the lengths the opposition goes to make it seem like something more than a farce.
Lebron is better than Jordan. He was a better playmaker by 21. A better defender by 22. And a much better player by 24. And then the better champion at 31. He is the standard of modern basketball. And I'm glad this board is finally admitting it.
3. 74 Kareem
Best defender and best attacker. I expended my realgm energy with the write-up above so let's leave it there for now.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Hey folks, my first year here, here’s my list:
Greatest peaks ever:
1. 2012-2013 Lebron James
2. 1990-1991 Michael Jordan
3. 2015-2016 Stephen Curry
Lebron at #1 is easy for me, for all of the dominance Jordan showed, Lebron is the perfect nba player. In 2013 he had perfected offensive efficiency while being one of the 3 best defenders in the league and possessing the widest array of versatility of anyone that will pop up on this list. Top shelf scorer, top shelf passer, top shelf defender, brings everything to the table and takes nothing off of it. 60% on 2s, 40% on 3s, 1st team all nba defender.
Jordan was the ultimate killer, first guard to truly lead his team to the promised land. MVP, Scoring champ, finals mvp, crushing Magic and the lakers in 5, on 31-6-11 and 56% shooting. Was the first to do much of what he did, which makes it doubly impressive. Perhaps the player who had the largest gap as the best player over the 2nd best ever.
Curry, revolutionized the game. Led the league in scoring volume and scoring efficiency. Broke the game both with the ball in his hands and with his gravity. Led the league in steals too btw. 50-45-90, 45% on 11 3s a game is the most absurd shooting season ever.
Greatest peaks ever:
1. 2012-2013 Lebron James
2. 1990-1991 Michael Jordan
3. 2015-2016 Stephen Curry
Lebron at #1 is easy for me, for all of the dominance Jordan showed, Lebron is the perfect nba player. In 2013 he had perfected offensive efficiency while being one of the 3 best defenders in the league and possessing the widest array of versatility of anyone that will pop up on this list. Top shelf scorer, top shelf passer, top shelf defender, brings everything to the table and takes nothing off of it. 60% on 2s, 40% on 3s, 1st team all nba defender.
Jordan was the ultimate killer, first guard to truly lead his team to the promised land. MVP, Scoring champ, finals mvp, crushing Magic and the lakers in 5, on 31-6-11 and 56% shooting. Was the first to do much of what he did, which makes it doubly impressive. Perhaps the player who had the largest gap as the best player over the 2nd best ever.
Curry, revolutionized the game. Led the league in scoring volume and scoring efficiency. Broke the game both with the ball in his hands and with his gravity. Led the league in steals too btw. 50-45-90, 45% on 11 3s a game is the most absurd shooting season ever.
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Credit to the search function on this forum, as well as the catalog of previous Peaks Projects. As a long-time lurker and short-term poster, the wealth of basketball information on this website alone eclipses the rest of the internet.
1. LeBron James 2016 (2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2020)
2. Bill Russell 1962 (1963, 1964 and 1965)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1974 (1977, but I digress)
What sets LeBron’s Defense apart from the non-traditional big men over the course of NBA History?
The most valuable defensive impact a player can have, besides being a 6’ 5” Bald Man from College Station, Texas, is to be a mobile rim deterrent in the likes of Tim Duncan, Bill Russell and Kevin Garnett or be a rim-protecting, well-rounded defensive wing in the vein of Draymond Green, Bobby Jones and LeBron James. As we focus on the wings who can masquerade as defensive centerpieces, their value simply exceeds guard and wing defenders who put up gaudy steal numbers or are shut-down on-ball menaces like Dennis Rodman.
Below is an illustration of just how good, statistically, LeBron was at deterring and defending shots from all over the court during the season I will present as his Peak, understanding he has a handful of seasons I would consider “Yeah, this is the best player to ever lace them up”.
Moving onto the post-season…
While there is clearly noise in the small sample size, PBPStats.com can provide additional context along with additional information.
LeBron On-Court Defensive Rating: 105.2
LeBron Off-Court Defensive Rating: 111.0
LeBron On/Off Defensive Rating: -5.8
MyUniBrowDavis LeBron On/Off Defensive Rating: -3.9
LeBron Rel Defensive Rating (Compared to League Average): -2.0
LeBron Rel Defensive Rating (Compared to Opponent Strength): -4.6
To summarize, LeBron was anchoring a -4 to -5 Defense against good offenses. The average offense LeBron faced was +3.4 Rel League Average. This is the type of stuff we see from All-Time great defensive players, typically big men.
Now, to the most impressive defensive series, arguably ever, by a non-big rim protector, the 2016 NBA Finals. What needs to be highlighted here is the value of LeBron’s steals and Blocks. Here is a list of his games 4-5-6-7 Blocks.
These blocks include multiple transition blocks, a put-down block, a block off a back-cut, and multiple blocks from the P&R at the rim. LeBron is blocking the most efficient shots in the NBA, transition opportunities, 5 times in 4 games.
Was LeBron getting the most out of his teammates offensively?
Basketball is a game played with 1-ball. Allowing everyone to operate in a different space on the court with defined roles is going to maximize any offensive system and its components (players). But what happens when you have a player who can play all 5 positions? Does he step on the toes of all who share the court, or is he able to fill in seamlessly with any configuration of components?
Let’s take a look, first with a quote that encapsulates much of what I believe regarding LeBron James’ offense and the system he encompasses.
In my own words, LeBron reached a pinnacle of Offense and Defensive combination, which netted him his most impactful playoff run and the most iconic NBA Finals in the modern history of basketball. 2016 LeBron isn’t the scorer MJ was, but he is damn close. LeBron isn’t the defensive anchor Russell was, but as a perimeter player he is damn close. It’s the combination of the two-way play that cemented LeBron #1 on my list.
What made Russell Impactful?
In layman's terms, Russell was the most active and efficient rim-protector the league has ever seen. In order to be active, you need to be mobile, and boy was Russell mobile. As I mentioned above, it is the rim protectors who can be mobile that have the greatest impact. An easy side-comparison defensively is Wilt, who was also an All-Time Great defender, but never approached the same level as Russell defensively.
The best defenders the NBA has seen can be argued as Russell, Garnett, Duncan, and Draymond, all of whom exhibit incredible mobility with 99th percentile understanding of movement and space recognition.
To illustrate, here is statistics from Russell compared to other ATG Centers through Video Tracking.
[quote=”70sFan”]] Rim protection
1962-69 Russell (estimated): 9.4 high quality contests per game, 2.5 weak contests per game
1993-94 Hakeem: 7.7 high quality contests per game, 1.9 weak contests per game
1962-67 Wilt (estimated): 7.1 high quality contests per game, 2.7 weak contests per game
1971-79 Kareem: 6.4 high quality contests per game, 2.5 weak contests per game
2000 Shaq: 3.7 high quality contests per game, 2.8 weak contests per game
1982-83 Moses: 3.2 high quality contests per game, 3.0 weak contests per game
Help rotations inside
1962-69 Russell (estimated): 2.8 high quality rotations per game, 0.8 bad rotations per game
1993-94 Hakeem: 3.6 high quality rotations per game, 1.3 bad rotations per game
1962-67 Wilt (estimated): 1.0 high quality rotations per game, 1.2 bad rotations per game
1971-79 Kareem: 3.1 high quality rotations per game, 2.2 bad rotations per game
2000 Shaq: 1.4 high quality rotations per game, 1.8 bad rotations per game
1982-83 Moses: 1.3 high quality rotations per game, 1.4 bad rotations per game[/quote]
Why Kareem?
Why Not?
Kareem was essentially Tim Duncan-esque defensively, hasn’t lost some of his mobility and agility, which again I keep harping on as what I value defensively, spry on both ends of the court. Dominant offensively to a slightly lesser degree than Shaq, more so than Wilt or Walton, but defensively, could simply move more fluidly and anticipate better.
1. LeBron James 2016 (2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2020)
2. Bill Russell 1962 (1963, 1964 and 1965)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1974 (1977, but I digress)
What sets LeBron’s Defense apart from the non-traditional big men over the course of NBA History?
The most valuable defensive impact a player can have, besides being a 6’ 5” Bald Man from College Station, Texas, is to be a mobile rim deterrent in the likes of Tim Duncan, Bill Russell and Kevin Garnett or be a rim-protecting, well-rounded defensive wing in the vein of Draymond Green, Bobby Jones and LeBron James. As we focus on the wings who can masquerade as defensive centerpieces, their value simply exceeds guard and wing defenders who put up gaudy steal numbers or are shut-down on-ball menaces like Dennis Rodman.
Below is an illustration of just how good, statistically, LeBron was at deterring and defending shots from all over the court during the season I will present as his Peak, understanding he has a handful of seasons I would consider “Yeah, this is the best player to ever lace them up”.
homecourtloss wrote:ISO defense
LeBron: .59 points per possession (PPP), 93rd percentile
Draymond: .68, 85th percentile
Kawhi: .69 PPP, 83rd percentile
Pick and roll ball handler
Kawhi: .65 PPP, 90th percentile
LeBron: .66 PPP, 88th percentile
Draymond: .88, 71st percentile
Pick and roll roll man
Kawhi: .50 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .70 PPP, 84th percentile
Draymond: .77 PPP, 75th percentile
Post defense
Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile
LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile
Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)
Spot up defense
LeBron: .80 PPP, 87th percentile
Kawhi: .88 PPP, 75th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 66th percentile
Off screens defense
Draymond: .45 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .74PPP, 85th percentile
Kawhi: 1.05 PPP, 31st percentile
Hand offs defense
LeBron: .49 97th percentile
Kawhi: .72 PPP, 78th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 43rd percentile
Regular season
Overall DFGA
LeBron: 37.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.7%, -7.3%
Draymond: 39.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.5%, -6.1%
Kawhi: 39.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.8%, -5.6%
3P DFGA
LeBron: 32.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -2.6%
Draymond: 29.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -5.1%
Kawhi: 33.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.9, -1.2%
2P DFGA
LeBron: 40.8 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.0%, -8.2%
Draymond: 42.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.2%, -6.3%
Kawhi: 41.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 48.8%, -7.2%
DFGA <6 Feet (Near Rim)
LeBron: <6ft: 48.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.9%, -11.3%
Draymond: <6ft: 51.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -8.7%
Kawhi: <6ft: 53.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.5%, -7.0%
Moving onto the post-season…
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Here is the Defensive On/Off for each playoff series.
Round 1 vs Pistons (Off Rank #15, avg Rel Ortg)
Lebron on court DEF RTG 103.7
Lebron off-court DEF RTG 130.9
Round 2 vs Hawks (Off Rank #20, -0.9 Rel Ortg)
Lebron on court DEF RTG 103.2
Lebron off-court DEF RTG 112.9
ECF vs Raptors (Off Rank #5th, +4 Rel Ortg)
Lebron on court DEF RTG 102.2
Lebron off-court DEF RTG 83.9
Finals vs Warriors (Off Rank #1, +8.2 Rel Ortg)
Lebron on court DEF RTG 104.1
Lebron off-court DEF RTG 122
Playoffs overall
Lebron on court DEF RTG 103.3
Lebron off-court DEF RTG 107.2
League avg is about 105.5
While there is clearly noise in the small sample size, PBPStats.com can provide additional context along with additional information.
LeBron On-Court Defensive Rating: 105.2
LeBron Off-Court Defensive Rating: 111.0
LeBron On/Off Defensive Rating: -5.8
MyUniBrowDavis LeBron On/Off Defensive Rating: -3.9
LeBron Rel Defensive Rating (Compared to League Average): -2.0
LeBron Rel Defensive Rating (Compared to Opponent Strength): -4.6
To summarize, LeBron was anchoring a -4 to -5 Defense against good offenses. The average offense LeBron faced was +3.4 Rel League Average. This is the type of stuff we see from All-Time great defensive players, typically big men.
Now, to the most impressive defensive series, arguably ever, by a non-big rim protector, the 2016 NBA Finals. What needs to be highlighted here is the value of LeBron’s steals and Blocks. Here is a list of his games 4-5-6-7 Blocks.
1st -chase down block
2nd -chase down block
3rd -early offense p and r block on Curry
4th -block on Draymond putback
5th -block on Draymond in transition
6th -block on Curry P&R at the rim
7th -block on Curry in transition
8th -block on Barbosa cutting to the rim
9th -Arguably the greatest block in NBA History
These blocks include multiple transition blocks, a put-down block, a block off a back-cut, and multiple blocks from the P&R at the rim. LeBron is blocking the most efficient shots in the NBA, transition opportunities, 5 times in 4 games.
Was LeBron getting the most out of his teammates offensively?
Basketball is a game played with 1-ball. Allowing everyone to operate in a different space on the court with defined roles is going to maximize any offensive system and its components (players). But what happens when you have a player who can play all 5 positions? Does he step on the toes of all who share the court, or is he able to fill in seamlessly with any configuration of components?
Let’s take a look, first with a quote that encapsulates much of what I believe regarding LeBron James’ offense and the system he encompasses.
colbinii wrote:LeBron James vs Detroit: 4 Games, 22.8/9.0/6.8, 1.8 steals, 21.1 3P%, 3.3 TO
Essentially a mediocre to below average prime LeBron series by the box-score, but the most important part of every player at this stage in the Top Peaks (and really all 40 of the top peaks) is how much impact a player has beyond the box-score. Kyrie Irving, for example, had a spectacularly efficient series: 27.5 Points, 6.5 TOV%, 58.5 TS%. The point emphasis and focus though should be this: The Cavaliers played at a net +16.8 Points/100 with James on the court and +3.0 Points/100 with Kyrie on the court. The Cavaliers offense exceeded 120 Ortg with James on the court, a level reserved for the GOAT offensive players.
LeBron James vs Atlanta: 24.3/8.5/7.8, 3.0 steals, 4.25 TO, 57.3 TS%
Box-Score looks a bit better, but let's back up. Atlanta is a 101.4 Defense Rating (2nd in NBA) and 3.49 SRS team. This team is significantly better than either opponent Jordan faced in round 1 or 2 in 1991. The Hawks are coming off a series played in 2016 holding their opponents to a 94.5 Ortg. That's incredible, and the team was Boston who was respectable (2.83 SRS, 8th in NBA, 10th rated Offense and 4th Rated Defense).
Now, look at what LeBron and the Cavaliers did to dismantle this defense--the 2nd best in the league and one looking like an all-time great defense through the regular season and 1st round of the playoffs...The Cavaliers played at a net +19,1 Points/100 with James on the court and +18.4 Points/100 with Kyrie on the court and +23.3 with Kevin Love. If anyone think LeBron is difficult to play with or diminishing his teammates efficiency...
LeBron James On-Court Ortg: 122.2
Kevin Love On-Court Ortg: 123.7
Kyrie Irving On-Court Ortg: 124.6
These numbers are against a 101.4 Rated Defense, that's producing an offense over +20 points per 100 better than what this defense gave up in the regular season and nearly +30 points per 100 better than what they gave up against the 10th best offense in round 1 over 6 games.
Next-up, LeBronto--the team that wins the championship in its first year after LeBron leaves the conference.
LeBron James vs Toronto: 26.0/8.5/6.7, 2.0 steals, 66.5 TS%
There is the ultra-efficient LeBron scoring series but perhaps not even the best part of the series from LeBron. While he posted an all-time great scoring series, and led the Cavaliers to a 121.3 Ortg when on the court resulting in a +19.2 Net Rating per 100 when on the court
In my own words, LeBron reached a pinnacle of Offense and Defensive combination, which netted him his most impactful playoff run and the most iconic NBA Finals in the modern history of basketball. 2016 LeBron isn’t the scorer MJ was, but he is damn close. LeBron isn’t the defensive anchor Russell was, but as a perimeter player he is damn close. It’s the combination of the two-way play that cemented LeBron #1 on my list.
What made Russell Impactful?
In layman's terms, Russell was the most active and efficient rim-protector the league has ever seen. In order to be active, you need to be mobile, and boy was Russell mobile. As I mentioned above, it is the rim protectors who can be mobile that have the greatest impact. An easy side-comparison defensively is Wilt, who was also an All-Time Great defender, but never approached the same level as Russell defensively.
The best defenders the NBA has seen can be argued as Russell, Garnett, Duncan, and Draymond, all of whom exhibit incredible mobility with 99th percentile understanding of movement and space recognition.
To illustrate, here is statistics from Russell compared to other ATG Centers through Video Tracking.
[quote=”70sFan”]] Rim protection
1962-69 Russell (estimated): 9.4 high quality contests per game, 2.5 weak contests per game
1993-94 Hakeem: 7.7 high quality contests per game, 1.9 weak contests per game
1962-67 Wilt (estimated): 7.1 high quality contests per game, 2.7 weak contests per game
1971-79 Kareem: 6.4 high quality contests per game, 2.5 weak contests per game
2000 Shaq: 3.7 high quality contests per game, 2.8 weak contests per game
1982-83 Moses: 3.2 high quality contests per game, 3.0 weak contests per game
Help rotations inside
1962-69 Russell (estimated): 2.8 high quality rotations per game, 0.8 bad rotations per game
1993-94 Hakeem: 3.6 high quality rotations per game, 1.3 bad rotations per game
1962-67 Wilt (estimated): 1.0 high quality rotations per game, 1.2 bad rotations per game
1971-79 Kareem: 3.1 high quality rotations per game, 2.2 bad rotations per game
2000 Shaq: 1.4 high quality rotations per game, 1.8 bad rotations per game
1982-83 Moses: 1.3 high quality rotations per game, 1.4 bad rotations per game[/quote]
Why Kareem?
Why Not?
Kareem was essentially Tim Duncan-esque defensively, hasn’t lost some of his mobility and agility, which again I keep harping on as what I value defensively, spry on both ends of the court. Dominant offensively to a slightly lesser degree than Shaq, more so than Wilt or Walton, but defensively, could simply move more fluidly and anticipate better.
Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
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- Sixth Man
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
Djoker wrote:[
Besides if Jordan's impact stats look that good and he's a subpar defender then he must be the offensive GOAT by a comically large margin as opposed to a small margin. Something's got to give.
Exactly. We just got a thread on Jordan's playoff on/off and at +18.1 for his career, it's literally the best number of anyone we have data for. People who act like anyone liking jordan is just some braindead "me likey points" fan or that it takes "strange" stats to like Jordan seem to be missing that Jordan combined the crazy box score stuff with the crazy winning and now apparently the best playoff on/off ever. And any time someone scrapes up some RAPM data, he seems to always look amazing in that as well.
Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
- eminence
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
Please don't put Bobby and Bron in the same sentence as Draymond when talking about defense.
I bought a boat.
Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
1. '09 LeBron James (2010, 2012, 2013, 2016)
2. '91 Michael Jordan (1989, 1990)
In 2009, LeBron produced, for my money, the most impressive individual season in the history of the sport. It's hard for me to imagine a more valuable season across both sides of the ball through the regular season and postseason. I do not think it was the best version of him as a player - that would probably be 2016, so it really depends on how I want to approach the question. Sticking with 2009 LeBron here, but the point is that I view LeBron as the greatest player ever at his peak and the choice of season is not something I'm dead set on.
Jordan has a real argument for the highest peak era relative impact since the merger. Recently compiled data has certainly strengthened this point, particularly with regard to the offensive side of the ball (defensive data decidedly less impressive - some of the data is actually kinda Steph-like? possible that the Bulls' rotations lead to MJ's off/def split being more skewed than reality though). In cases where it's close (as it is between LeBron and Jordan), I find myself leaning towards the player who I am more confident in translating to the modern era. I have no question marks for LeBron in that department. He's sustained unhampered dominance through vastly different league environments and metas, and I think his impact would be even greater in today's league.
With Jordan, there is inherently less reason for confidence because his playing days are further removed from today. As a baseline, I do not think he'd be worse than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That's my "floor" for peak Jordan in the modern era, and it's a pretty ridiculous one because Shai had an all-time guard season (one counter there being that Shai is a better 3PT shooter than anything Jordan has ever shown, but this doesn't give me too much pause in light of everything else). But I still frankly struggle to see peak Jordan as a better player than peak LeBron in LeBron's era. Jordan numbers look Curry-esque offensively and I am unsure that he'd be able to match that in today's game. Essentially I view him as having that GOAT level peak in the era that he played in, but there is enough uncertainty on translation that the tiebreaker for me goes to the guy I have less doubts on.
3. '67 Wilt Chamberlain (1964)
Very unsettled on this one, but I'm extremely high on peak Wilt as far as both "this guy was a ridiculous two way impact player" and "I think this guy would still be ridiculous in today's game." Might change my mind as we get past these first two threads and I read more posts comparing the bigs; Russell, Kareem, Shaq, loom large in particular. But LeBron and MJ are an easy top two for me.
2. '91 Michael Jordan (1989, 1990)
In 2009, LeBron produced, for my money, the most impressive individual season in the history of the sport. It's hard for me to imagine a more valuable season across both sides of the ball through the regular season and postseason. I do not think it was the best version of him as a player - that would probably be 2016, so it really depends on how I want to approach the question. Sticking with 2009 LeBron here, but the point is that I view LeBron as the greatest player ever at his peak and the choice of season is not something I'm dead set on.
Jordan has a real argument for the highest peak era relative impact since the merger. Recently compiled data has certainly strengthened this point, particularly with regard to the offensive side of the ball (defensive data decidedly less impressive - some of the data is actually kinda Steph-like? possible that the Bulls' rotations lead to MJ's off/def split being more skewed than reality though). In cases where it's close (as it is between LeBron and Jordan), I find myself leaning towards the player who I am more confident in translating to the modern era. I have no question marks for LeBron in that department. He's sustained unhampered dominance through vastly different league environments and metas, and I think his impact would be even greater in today's league.
With Jordan, there is inherently less reason for confidence because his playing days are further removed from today. As a baseline, I do not think he'd be worse than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That's my "floor" for peak Jordan in the modern era, and it's a pretty ridiculous one because Shai had an all-time guard season (one counter there being that Shai is a better 3PT shooter than anything Jordan has ever shown, but this doesn't give me too much pause in light of everything else). But I still frankly struggle to see peak Jordan as a better player than peak LeBron in LeBron's era. Jordan numbers look Curry-esque offensively and I am unsure that he'd be able to match that in today's game. Essentially I view him as having that GOAT level peak in the era that he played in, but there is enough uncertainty on translation that the tiebreaker for me goes to the guy I have less doubts on.
3. '67 Wilt Chamberlain (1964)
Very unsettled on this one, but I'm extremely high on peak Wilt as far as both "this guy was a ridiculous two way impact player" and "I think this guy would still be ridiculous in today's game." Might change my mind as we get past these first two threads and I read more posts comparing the bigs; Russell, Kareem, Shaq, loom large in particular. But LeBron and MJ are an easy top two for me.
Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
How have 3 people already mentioned 2016 Steph. Ignoring the fact that even last time it was 2017 that ended up being his season, are we just straight up stopping peak seasons at the end of the regular season now? His 2016 playoffs would be lucky to crack a top 200 playoffs list, even without accounting for missing 6 games.
Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1
eminence wrote:Please don't put Bobby and Bron in the same sentence as Draymond when talking about defense.
I dobt think he was saying they were equally good but pointing out they were mobile and impactful rim protectors despite not being huge like most rim protecting centers