Warriors exploring S&T for Kuminga

[Onus]

Here’s my best-case scenarios….. actually, maybe also the most likely scenarios…..

Scenario 1:

Sign-and-trade to the Jazz, where he goes into the exception they created by trading Collins. (It looks like they did take the full trade exception of $26M, rather than use part of it to absorb Anderson and Love.) Warriors receive Clayton Jr. and one of the Jazz’s “middle” 1st round picks in 2027.
I think this allows the Warriors access to the full non-taxpayer MLE (someone can correct me), and if so, offer to split it between Beal and Horford, each on 2-year deals if they’ll take them
Sign Melton on the BAE or vet minimum
Would require a “roster-balancing” trade to follow (I haven’t thought about this enough), due to huge surplus of guards and relative paucity of combo forward-size guys. I wouldn’t be averse to including Podziemski or Hield in it, as well as draft equity.

The Utah Jazz opened up capspace so they could sign JK and send out 2 1st round picks for the privilege to sign JK? File this under 0% chance of happening.

[ChuckDurn]

Here’s my best-case scenarios….. actually, maybe also the most likely scenarios…..

Scenario 1:

Sign-and-trade to the Jazz, where he goes into the exception they created by trading Collins. (It looks like they did take the full trade exception of $26M, rather than use part of it to absorb Anderson and Love.) Warriors receive Clayton Jr. and one of the Jazz’s “middle” 1st round picks in 2027.
I think this allows the Warriors access to the full non-taxpayer MLE (someone can correct me), and if so, offer to split it between Beal and Horford, each on 2-year deals if they’ll take them
Sign Melton on the BAE or vet minimum
Would require a “roster-balancing” trade to follow (I haven’t thought about this enough), due to huge surplus of guards and relative paucity of combo forward-size guys. I wouldn’t be averse to including Podziemski or Hield in it, as well as draft equity.

The Utah Jazz opened up capspace so they could sign JK and send out 2 1st round picks for the privilege to sign JK? File this under 0% chance of happening.

Everything I’m seeing suggest that they have about $5M in cap space after the trade. What am I missing?

Whether they’d do the deal or not, that’s a different matter, but I don’t think they have meaningful cap space.

[Onus]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PNVn2tvjBfc

[Onus]

Here’s my best-case scenarios….. actually, maybe also the most likely scenarios…..

Scenario 1:

Sign-and-trade to the Jazz, where he goes into the exception they created by trading Collins. (It looks like they did take the full trade exception of $26M, rather than use part of it to absorb Anderson and Love.) Warriors receive Clayton Jr. and one of the Jazz’s “middle” 1st round picks in 2027.
I think this allows the Warriors access to the full non-taxpayer MLE (someone can correct me), and if so, offer to split it between Beal and Horford, each on 2-year deals if they’ll take them
Sign Melton on the BAE or vet minimum
Would require a “roster-balancing” trade to follow (I haven’t thought about this enough), due to huge surplus of guards and relative paucity of combo forward-size guys. I wouldn’t be averse to including Podziemski or Hield in it, as well as draft equity.

The Utah Jazz opened up capspace so they could sign JK and send out 2 1st round picks for the privilege to sign JK? File this under 0% chance of happening.

Everything I’m seeing suggest that they have about $5M in cap space after the trade. What am I missing?

Whether they’d do the deal or not, that’s a different matter, but I don’t think they have meaningful cap space.

They're not interested in JK (the whole Lauri negotiations from last year let alone they drafted Ace Bailey 5th) and they sure as hell wouldn't trade 2 1sts for JK.

[AirP.]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PNVn2tvjBfc

Just put the last part (PNVn2tvjBfc) between the youtube and /youtube bbcodes.

Watch on YouTube

[EvanZ]

Chicago has Buzelis and Essengue. They have zero need for Kuminga at this point. In fact, he's going to be a terrible fit there too.

Where would he be a good fit?

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

[vvoland]

Chicago has Buzelis and Essengue. They have zero need for Kuminga at this point. In fact, he's going to be a terrible fit there too.

Where would he be a good fit?

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

Boston, SAS, OKC, Denver, Philly, here, and Minnesota from the contender tier.

Was, Cha, Indy, Uta, Miami, and NOP from the best of the rest.

He's a challenging fit in the modern NBA but can be effective for ~1/3rd of the teams in the league.

[vvoland]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PNVn2tvjBfc

Just put the last part (PNVn2tvjBfc) between the youtube and /youtube bbcodes.

Watch on YouTube

Maybe it's just my internet but this video doesn't load and just lags when I try to view it.

[whatisacenter]

Chicago has Buzelis and Essengue. They have zero need for Kuminga at this point. In fact, he's going to be a terrible fit there too.

Where would he be a good fit?

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

If JK doesn’t fit anywhere and has no market then why don’t the Warriors just pull back the QO?

[Onus]

Chicago has Buzelis and Essengue. They have zero need for Kuminga at this point. In fact, he's going to be a terrible fit there too.

Where would he be a good fit?

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

Yea I’m coming around to just accepting Devin carter. Like if the market is this bare now will there be a market when he’s making 15-20 and is a malcontent? At that point we might just have to attach assets to move off him.

[Onus]

Where would he be a good fit?

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

Boston, SAS, OKC, Denver, Philly, here, and Minnesota from the contender tier.

Was, Cha, Indy, Uta, Miami, and NOP from the best of the rest.

He's a challenging fit in the modern NBA but can be effective for ~1/3rd of the teams in the league.

Ok so from these teams who would we want and what would they be willing to move?

Bos- white but we’d have to add value
Sas-Barnes? But why
Okc no one
Den cam Johnson but unlikely they make that trade
Philly one of their guards in maxey, McCain, edgecombe? Maybe
Min no one
Was kispert? But they moved on
Cha doubtful they had no interest
Indy obi? Nesmith? Idk maybe
Utah not interested
Mia no one
Nop herb or Trey

[Onus]

Where would he be a good fit?

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

If JK doesn’t fit anywhere and has no market then why don’t the Warriors just pull back the QO?

Because they want value for him otherwise ownership would be admitting they tricked off the end of currys career for nothing.

[vvoland]

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

Boston, SAS, OKC, Denver, Philly, here, and Minnesota from the contender tier.

Was, Cha, Indy, Uta, Miami, and NOP from the best of the rest.

He's a challenging fit in the modern NBA but can be effective for ~1/3rd of the teams in the league.

Ok so from these teams who would we want and what would they be willing to move?

Bos- white but we’d have to add value. JK at 20 + moody + pick?
Sas-Barnes? But why. RJ or Ingram? I'd pass but those two or quickley would be the most 'attainable'
Okc no one .. really? how about jaylin williams + isiah joe + wallace?
Den cam Johnson but unlikely they make that trade.. no one. Cam would work but they need him even more than we do
Philly one of their guards in maxey, McCain, edgecombe? Maybe.. unless they're crazy, I don't see a trade
Min no one.. DDV + dillingham.. if they get a pg or are out of contention (ant or randle gets hurt).
Was kispert? But they moved on. I'd pass on those 'assets'
Cha doubtful they had no interest. Don't see why they wouldn't. Same age as Ball and Miller. team control. I just don't want anyone from Cha.
Indy obi? Nesmith? Idk maybe .. Both? Nesmith + Nembhart?
Utah not interested. Same here. I wouldn't want to bundle too many of our players for Lauri and there's no one else
Mia no one. People wanted wigs back but I'd pass.
Nop herb or Trey

Trey. TREY. That's the target but Joe runs that ship like it's the titanic so....

[NW]

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

If JK doesn’t fit anywhere and has no market then why don’t the Warriors just pull back the QO?

Because they want value for him otherwise ownership would be admitting they tricked off the end of currys career for nothing.

If they rescind the QO, they’d have the NTMLE and the SloMo trade exception to use. I wonder, if Bradley Beal called Dunleavy Jr. tomorrow and said “I’ll sign with GS for a bit over the TMLE the Clips are offering” would they rescind it then?

Beal, Horford and Melton (plus Moody and a post Steph pick likely being worth a decent return) over what they might get for Kuminga in January?

[vvoland]

You got me there! lol Of course that just means he doesn’t have a market.

If JK doesn’t fit anywhere and has no market then why don’t the Warriors just pull back the QO?

Because they want value for him otherwise ownership would be admitting they tricked off the end of currys career for nothing.

Having no market in RFA doesn't mean he's worthless or can't contribute here. If his value is so low that the best offer is devin carter and saric, it's a no brainer to keep him, if you can get him on a decent deal.

Hollinger was speculating on a podcast (could have been someone else) that the kings offer was just the opening salvo and he expect them to up it to something like ellis, carter, and a first.

His logic being, with derozan, lavine, schroeder, and monk, ellis and carter don't have a role.

[vvoland]

If JK doesn’t fit anywhere and has no market then why don’t the Warriors just pull back the QO?

Because they want value for him otherwise ownership would be admitting they tricked off the end of currys career for nothing.

If they rescind the QO, they’d have the NTMLE and the SloMo trade exception to use. I wonder, if Bradley Beal called Dunleavy Jr. tomorrow and said “I’ll sign with GS for a bit over the TMLE the Clips are offering” would they rescind it then?

Beal, Horford and Melton (plus Moody and a post Steph pick likely being worth a decent return) over what they might get for Kuminga in January?

If Beal's motivation is an extra dollar above the TMLE, I'll pass.

[EvanZ]

If JK doesn’t fit anywhere and has no market then why don’t the Warriors just pull back the QO?

Because they want value for him otherwise ownership would be admitting they tricked off the end of currys career for nothing.

Having no market in RFA doesn't mean he's worthless or can't contribute here. If his value is so low that the best offer is devin carter and saric, it's a no brainer to keep him, if you can get him on a decent deal.

Hollinger was speculating on a podcast (could have been someone else) that the kings offer was just the opening salvo and he expect them to up it to something like ellis, carter, and a first.

His logic being, with derozan, lavine, schroeder, and monk, ellis and carter don't have a role.

What would you consider a "decent deal" at this point? Remember it has to satisfy at least two things: 1) Kuminga has to be willing to take it 2) It has to be tradeable for something of value during the season.

[Onus]

Boston, SAS, OKC, Denver, Philly, here, and Minnesota from the contender tier.

Was, Cha, Indy, Uta, Miami, and NOP from the best of the rest.

He's a challenging fit in the modern NBA but can be effective for ~1/3rd of the teams in the league.

Ok so from these teams who would we want and what would they be willing to move?

Bos- white but we’d have to add value. JK at 20 + moody + pick?
Sas-Barnes? But why. RJ or Ingram? I'd pass but those two or quickley would be the most 'attainable'
Okc no one .. really? how about jaylin williams + isiah joe + wallace?
Den cam Johnson but unlikely they make that trade.. no one. Cam would work but they need him even more than we do
Philly one of their guards in maxey, McCain, edgecombe? Maybe.. unless they're crazy, I don't see a trade
Min no one.. DDV + dillingham.. if they get a pg or are out of contention (ant or randle gets hurt).
Was kispert? But they moved on. I'd pass on those 'assets'
Cha doubtful they had no interest. Don't see why they wouldn't. Same age as Ball and Miller. team control. I just don't want anyone from Cha.
Indy obi? Nesmith? Idk maybe .. Both? Nesmith + Nembhart?
Utah not interested. Same here. I wouldn't want to bundle too many of our players for Lauri and there's no one else
Mia no one. People wanted wigs back but I'd pass.
Nop herb or Trey

Trey. TREY. That's the target but Joe runs that ship like it's the titanic so....

SAS I'm guessing you meant TOR. Quickley is way overpaid.
OKC I just don't see them trading anyone after winning a title.
Indy doubt they trade Nembhardt after Haliburton went down.

The options are pretty bare and a lot of hope teams are faltering.

[Onus]

If JK doesn’t fit anywhere and has no market then why don’t the Warriors just pull back the QO?

Because they want value for him otherwise ownership would be admitting they tricked off the end of currys career for nothing.

Having no market in RFA doesn't mean he's worthless or can't contribute here. If his value is so low that the best offer is devin carter and saric, it's a no brainer to keep him, if you can get him on a decent deal.

Hollinger was speculating on a podcast (could have been someone else) that the kings offer was just the opening salvo and he expect them to up it to something like ellis, carter, and a first.

His logic being, with derozan, lavine, schroeder, and monk, ellis and carter don't have a role.

Ellis + Carter + 1st if MDJ pulled that off exec of the year!

I'm excited to see Devin Carter in the summer league starting at pg.

[vvoland]

Because they want value for him otherwise ownership would be admitting they tricked off the end of currys career for nothing.

Having no market in RFA doesn't mean he's worthless or can't contribute here. If his value is so low that the best offer is devin carter and saric, it's a no brainer to keep him, if you can get him on a decent deal.

Hollinger was speculating on a podcast (could have been someone else) that the kings offer was just the opening salvo and he expect them to up it to something like ellis, carter, and a first.

His logic being, with derozan, lavine, schroeder, and monk, ellis and carter don't have a role.

What would you consider a "decent deal" at this point? Remember it has to satisfy at least two things: 1) Kuminga has to be willing to take it 2) It has to be tradeable for something of value during the season.

I think if they really play hardball, they can strongarm JK to accept a 3/45 and give him the PO on year 3. Otherwise, what? He plays on the QO? No chance. Just the basic math makes it impossible to turn down 2/30 over 1/8.

For future contract matching and ego management purposes and, in part, as an apology for the way his first 4 years have gone, I'd offer 3/60 with a team option on year 3 and would, eventually, concede in making it a PO, if his agent proved competent. There has been nothing to suggest his agent has a pulse, the chances of getting a 3/50 with a team option, or even 4/65, with a PO, isn't that low. That's probably the best case scenario - the austin reaves deal with more team control?

What's the realistic worst case scenario? 5/150 is off the board. 3/75, descending (so it's like 28 this season), with a PO in the last/cheapest year? I can't imagine that being offered even if Lacob loves JK like the son he never had.

If I made you gamble on it, what do you think he signs for? I'm guessing 3/52 with a PO. That's 17 per season and, if we make it descending, it could start at 20. That's an easy salary match for an expiring like powell or for a team that can send out less money by being under the 1st apron.

I'd try to keep him for 50 games and see if he really is as bad a fit with this core since, at that price, the only real downside would be a season ending injury.