Official Trade Thread Part XLVII

[nate33]

LOL Can we just sticky a thread that explains this and only this. In all caps. It's twice a week we re-answer the question.

What's an interesting question is what happens with the Suns swap if we made a deal with NY to increase the protections on the pick or remove the pick obligation altogether?

In theory, the Suns made the swap with us knowing that the swap could only conceivably have mattered if we finished in the bottom 8. So, if they assumed they were a sure bet to finish with the 9th pick or worse, they were in no danger of having to give up the swap. However, if we now make a trade that changes the protections on that pick, does Phoenix have to honor them? If Phoenix finishes with the 9th pick, and we make that Champagnie trade to get control of our pick back, and then finish with the 12th pick, could Phoenix rightly argue that they shouldn't be forced to swap?

I can hear the judge, “You made the stupid deal for Beal thinking you’d be good. Now you stink and want to be rewarded for your incompetence?”

You guys are dismissing my point, but I really think it's relevant. When the Beal trade took place, Phoenix didn't include a swap of our entire 2026 draft pick range. They only included a swap of our pick if the pick fell within the protected 1-8 range. At the time they made the trade, they were certain that there was a a hard floor into how far they could fall in a swap scenario. It was impossible for them to pick below 8th. But if the Wizards now make a trade with NY to get full control of the pick, that would retroactively change the terms of the agreement Phoenix had with Washington. Instead of there being a hard floor in how far Phoenix could fall, the floor dropped away.

[Rafael122]

Read on Twitter

I'm $15 million off based on the projected cap so I'm assuming these are cap holds?

[pcbothwel]

Read on Twitter

I'm $15 million off based on the projected cap so I'm assuming these are cap holds?

Im at $70M active roster (11 people) w/o Jamir, Vuk, and our 2026 1st. So that would be ~$95M in cap space, but that would drop to ~80M if you add in a top 5 pick + Jamir.

[bsilver]

What's an interesting question is what happens with the Suns swap if we made a deal with NY to increase the protections on the pick or remove the pick obligation altogether?

In theory, the Suns made the swap with us knowing that the swap could only conceivably have mattered if we finished in the bottom 8. So, if they assumed they were a sure bet to finish with the 9th pick or worse, they were in no danger of having to give up the swap. However, if we now make a trade that changes the protections on that pick, does Phoenix have to honor them? If Phoenix finishes with the 9th pick, and we make that Champagnie trade to get control of our pick back, and then finish with the 12th pick, could Phoenix rightly argue that they shouldn't be forced to swap?

I can hear the judge, “You made the stupid deal for Beal thinking you’d be good. Now you stink and want to be rewarded for your incompetence?”

You guys are dismissing my point, but I really think it's relevant. When the Beal trade took place, Phoenix didn't include a swap of our entire 2026 draft pick range. They only included a swap of our pick if the pick fell within the protected 1-8 range. At the time they made the trade, they were certain that there was a a hard floor into how far they could fall in a swap scenario. It was impossible for them to pick below 8th. But if the Wizards now make a trade with NY to get full control of the pick, that would retroactively change the terms of the agreement Phoenix had with Washington. Instead of there being a hard floor in how far Phoenix could fall, the floor dropped away.

Why was it impossible for the Suns to pick below 8, if both teams were below 8?
It was always possible we could get total control of the pick. Is there some detail in the trade that says the pick swap is only valid for a 1-8 protected pick? The only language I see is “2026 first round pick swap” .

[nate33]

I can hear the judge, “You made the stupid deal for Beal thinking you’d be good. Now you stink and want to be rewarded for your incompetence?”

You guys are dismissing my point, but I really think it's relevant. When the Beal trade took place, Phoenix didn't include a swap of our entire 2026 draft pick range. They only included a swap of our pick if the pick fell within the protected 1-8 range. At the time they made the trade, they were certain that there was a a hard floor into how far they could fall in a swap scenario. It was impossible for them to pick below 8th. But if the Wizards now make a trade with NY to get full control of the pick, that would retroactively change the terms of the agreement Phoenix had with Washington. Instead of there being a hard floor in how far Phoenix could fall, the floor dropped away.

Why was it impossible for the Suns to pick below 8, if both teams were below 8?
It was always possible we could get total control of the pick. Is there some detail in the trade that says the pick swap is only valid for a 1-8 protected pick? The only language I see is “2026 first round pick swap” .

It was impossible for Phoenix to be swapped to a position below 8 because if our pick was below 8, we wouldn't own it. Phoenix understood that concept going into the trade and presumably valued the cost-benefits of incorporating the pick swap accordingly. Then, we retroactively altered the downside risk of the swap. Should they be responsible to honor the deal if we changed it retroactively? (Again, this is all under the assumption that make a deal with New York right now to regain full control of the pick. That probably won't happen, so this is just a hypothetical discussion.)

[AFM]

Bro when is the next trade. I’m bored as hell at work. Dawkins get off your ass lil bro. You really gonna end Sarrs career early by having him be the only big on the roster. MAKE A MOVE!!!!!

[9 and 20]

You're hearing it here first.

The plan for $100 mil next year, all the young talent and draft picks heading our way:

C - Sarr
PF - Giannis
SF - Bilal
G - Tre
G - Bub

[GoneShammGone]

You guys are dismissing my point, but I really think it's relevant. When the Beal trade took place, Phoenix didn't include a swap of our entire 2026 draft pick range. They only included a swap of our pick if the pick fell within the protected 1-8 range. At the time they made the trade, they were certain that there was a a hard floor into how far they could fall in a swap scenario. It was impossible for them to pick below 8th. But if the Wizards now make a trade with NY to get full control of the pick, that would retroactively change the terms of the agreement Phoenix had with Washington. Instead of there being a hard floor in how far Phoenix could fall, the floor dropped away.

Why was it impossible for the Suns to pick below 8, if both teams were below 8?
It was always possible we could get total control of the pick. Is there some detail in the trade that says the pick swap is only valid for a 1-8 protected pick? The only language I see is “2026 first round pick swap” .

It was impossible for Phoenix to be swapped to a position below 8 because if our pick was below 8, we wouldn't own it. Phoenix understood that concept going into the trade and presumably valued the cost-benefits of incorporating the pick swap accordingly. Then, we retroactively altered the downside risk of the swap. Should they be responsible to honor the deal if we changed it retroactively? (Again, this is all under the assumption that make a deal with New York right now to regain full control of the pick. That probably won't happen, so this is just a hypothetical discussion.)

But the protections on the pick could always be changed, no? They must have understood that was a possibility (in this hypothetical scenario.). Unless the pick swap somehow prevents the pick from being used in a subsequent transaction (like a lien on a home...)?

For example, are we allowed to trade next years pick (along with its protections)? I don't see why not... so if we can trade it away, it seems reasonable to think that we could "bring it back" by making a deal to expand the protections, or get the pick outright. One way helps Phx, the other way hurts Phx. Doesn't seem fair that they would only be able to benefit from a transaction involving the pick.

[nate33]

You're hearing it here first.

The plan for $100 mil next year, all the young talent and draft picks heading our way:

C - Sarr
PF - Giannis
SF - Bilal
G - Tre
G - Bub

Giannis isn't a free agent. We would have to trade to acquire Giannis. I think Milwaukee would find a better deal elsewhere. Since they don't own their own picks, they're not particularly interested in tanking hard. So they would be seeking some good young talent right now, as well as future picks. I don't think that a package of just future picks gets it done. Particularly when our future picks, from a team with Giannis, would likely be pretty lousy.

Also, Giannis will be 32 at the start of next season. I don't know if we want to invest all of our future picks into a 32-year-old star.

The guy that intrigues me more is Luka. If he doesn't work out an extension with LA, he will be a free agent next summer. If you are Luka, would you rather stay in LA with only Reeves, Ayton and Rui as teammates? Or would you rather come to DC, play in the lousy East, and be surrounded Tre, Sarr, our 2026 lotto pick, and a bunch of quality 3&D role players about to enter their prime?

We could probably make it even more interesting if we could trade Sarr for a more established rim-protector/rim-runner guy like maybe Derrick Lively. Imagine surrounding Luka with Lively, Tre, Boozer, Bilal, Bub, Whitmore, George and Champagnie. And with the salary flexibility to keep most of those guys into their second contracts. And Luka will only be 27 at the start of next season.

[NatP4]

I think they intend to flip all of these expiring deals for longer term deals and continue to acquire assets. No major UFA signings.

More likely they make a big quantity for quality trade for an elite young prospect, and continue building through the draft. Save all the cap space for current roster player extensions.

[nate33]

I think they intend to flip all of these expiring deals for longer term deals and continue to acquire assets. No major UFA signings.

More likely they make a big quantity for quality trade for an elite young prospect, and continue building through the draft. Save all the cap space for current roster player extensions.

I'm not so sure. If that was the plan, they wouldn't have traded Jordan Poole. They were going to have $50M+ in cap room even with Poole on the books. That's enough to buy bad contracts and picks.

Why trade Poole unless they are gearing up for something more interesting in the 2026 offseason?

If nothing else, I could see them at least bidding up the cost of various RFA's. This year, guys like Giddey, Kuminga and Aldama are getting leveraged by their teams into lower contracts because nobody is out there threatening to sign them as free agents. I think there's a good chance we won't let that happen for the 2022 draft RFA class. Maybe we won't sign anybody, but we will bid up their cost to force other teams to overpay. Guys like Benedict Mathurin, Dyson Daniels, Shaedon Sharpe, Tari Eason and Keegan Murray won't get cheap deals.

[Rafael122]

I think they intend to flip all of these expiring deals for longer term deals and continue to acquire assets. No major UFA signings.

More likely they make a big quantity for quality trade for an elite young prospect, and continue building through the draft. Save all the cap space for current roster player extensions.

I'm not so sure. If that was the plan, they wouldn't have traded Jordan Poole. They were going to have $50M+ in cap room even with Poole on the books. That's enough to buy bad contracts and picks.

Why trade Poole unless they are gearing up for something more interesting in the 2026 offseason?

If nothing else, I could see them at least bidding up the cost of various RFA's. This year, guys like Giddey, Kuminga and Aldama are getting leveraged by their teams into lower contracts because nobody is out there threatening to sign them as free agents. I think there's a good chance we won't let that happen for the 2022 draft RFA class. Maybe we won't sign anybody, but we will bid up their cost to force other teams to overpay. Guys like Benedict Mathurin, Dyson Daniels, Shaedon Sharpe, Tari Eason and Keegan Murray won't get cheap deals.

Exactly my thoughts. Now...Daniels, Eason etc might very well sign extensions with their teams, but the cap room is large enough where they could throw poison pills in there, i.e. Eason's guaranteed $20 million within the first 3 days of him signing the contract or whatever. I'm not really sure how all that works but you can get creative with it.

Also, I'm just gonna throw this out there because screw it right. I could be wrong about this but the Wizards can offer a guy like Luka 30% of the cap, which is like $50 mil per. I believe it ends up being 4 years/$220 million. The only difference is that its 5% raises every year with us, 8% raises with the Lakers. The offer with the Lakers is like $229 million, so you're talking about a $9 million difference. Factoring in taxes, the different gets even smaller. It's a pipe dream but it's not insane to think about. Luka coming to the East would make the path to the finals easier.

[nate33]

Guys, I'm really starting to think that Luka to DC is a possibility. I'm not saying it's a 50/50 chance or anything, but maybe there's a 20% chance.

The Lakers appear to be going the cap room route next summer. Lebron's contract is up and Luka, Ayton and Reaves have PO's that they will opt out of. That leaves the Lakers with just Vanderbilt, LaRavia, Knecht, Milton and Bronny on the roster. Their payroll will be $30M, leaving them with $135M in cap room.

A supermax salary will be roughly $63M that summer. So that's enough for Luka and one other supermax guy, or Luka and $60M of free agents. But the market for free agents looks pretty bleak. The next best guy is who? De'Aaron Fox? Mikal Bridges? Tari Eason? How good will this future Lakers team be? And by dropping down below the cap, it will make it hard to have the salary slots available to get up near the upper levels of spending that other contenders are at. It will be 2 or 3 years until they have a payroll up near the 1st Apron.

If you are Luka, how thrilled are you about that scenario? Why not join the Wizards who will have a boatload of developing prospects with good 3&D complementary skills, an incoming top 5 lotto pick, all their future picks intact plus a few extra, and $30M or so in cap room to add one more vet.

[The Consiglieri]

I see that as a .01% chance of happening. I think Luka's 1000% fallen in love with LA like every other NBA player that signs or gets traded or drafted there (and as a NoCal, I get it, other than traffic, and some of the culture).

[Rafael122]

Nate - the only thing I disagree with is that Reaves opts in. He's 100% opting out. He'd make double what he's making now on the free agent market.

I do think we have the management infrastructure in place that makes Luka coming here enticing. As I laid out, you're probably talking a $4 to $5 million difference in money, which he can make back with off court stuff. Cap One is getting major upgrades, we have a team full of cheap salary. Like even if Luka comes here, we still have money to bring in another max player. And it's the East. It probably won't happen, but why not take a meeting?

[nate33]

Nate - the only thing I disagree with is that Reaves opts in. He's 100% opting out. He'd make double what he's making now on the free agent market.

I do think we have the management infrastructure in place that makes Luka coming here enticing. As I laid out, you're probably talking a $4 to $5 million difference in money, which he can make back with off court stuff. Cap One is getting major upgrades, we have a team full of cheap salary. Like even if Luka comes here, we still have money to bring in another max player. And it's the East. It probably won't happen, but why not take a meeting?

Sorry. I worded that poorly. I agree. Reaves and Ayton will opt out.

[NatP4]

I can’t see it. The Wizards would have to really turn the corner in terms of being viewed as a legit young core/ready for the next step, as opposed to being a bottom of the league/tanking team with a few completely unproven 19&20 year olds.

There is ZERO chance they come anywhere close to risking losing their 1st round pick. The front office can’t and won’t allow it. This will be a 20 win team again. I’d be shocked if Luka had any interest in joining that.

It would be a brilliant move though. Perfect fit. Paying him for his prime age 27/28/29/30 seasons.

[AFM]

Luka is old enough to know our reputation as the shtstain on the toilet bowl of the league. It’s interesting that a lot of the younger players don’t have that perception of us though. They weren’t really around for the Ernie years. The dark ages. Sarr, Bailey, etc.

[NatP4]

2026/2027 Wizards:

Luka/Carrington
Johnson/Riley
Coulibaly/Whitmore
Dybantsa/George
Sarr/UFA C

[dckingsfan]

Nate - the only thing I disagree with is that Reaves opts in. He's 100% opting out. He'd make double what he's making now on the free agent market.

I do think we have the management infrastructure in place that makes Luka coming here enticing. As I laid out, you're probably talking a $4 to $5 million difference in money, which he can make back with off court stuff. Cap One is getting major upgrades, we have a team full of cheap salary. Like even if Luka comes here, we still have money to bring in another max player. And it's the East. It probably won't happen, but why not take a meeting?

Sorry. I worded that poorly. I agree. Reaves and Ayton will opt out.

Ayton will play poorly and opt-in.