What is FMV for Austin Reaves

[facothomas22]

He's worth no more than 12-14 million dollars per year, but knowing how bad some General Mangers run thier team, he's getting north of 30 million dollars.

[Vae Victus]

I'd be surprised if he doesnt get at least 30 mill. Think he gets offers like that from Utah/Portland/Chicago/Washington who all have the money to spend and all of whom should be looking to be competitive in 2026/2027.

If youre paying Reaves/Luka 90 mill combined, doesnt that kill the 2027 cap space plan? It really does make their decision this offseason far more odd. This might be the last time in a while that you have a top 15ish player with Luka and a very good 3rd option. I get that Luka is still young and you want future flexibility, but this may be their best chance over the next 5 years...they shoulda capitalized on it a lot more than they did

Yea its why so many of us want to trade Reaves to try to kick the can down the road.... but Luka not extended yet has made things.... worrisome.

Upside is that Reaves only has like a 20ish mil cap hold, so basically if not factoring in Lebron and other FAs,

Luka (max)
Vando (11ish mil)
Rookie deals (Knecht, Bronny)
Reaves caphold (20is mil)
Minimum roster charges

In theory could squeeze in a max deal (not that anyone is worthy of one in the upcoming FA) then re-sign Reaves. Absolute best case scenario is being able to outright absorb salary of a worthy max caliber player while trading out Knect and draft capital, re-sign Ayton to a reasonable deal with cap space(need a big badly), re-sign Reaves to a reasonable deal using his caphold to sign him last, re-sign Lebron to some exception. These set of moves are..... wildly optimistic, but with not bothering to try to retain DFS with just a 2 year guaranteed deal, i dont see what sort of path Pelinka is charting, unless he's really banking on stealing another superstar using magic beans in 2026 FA.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

His contract was limited to roughly 10% of the cap, 15% of the cap is ~25, which should be his deal.
He's not Monk/Powell/Sexton, he's a PG, who did well in short stints as 1st option on ball guy, none of these can dream of that, he is terrible on defense though.

I’ve never seen him this way, he's strictly a 2 in my eyes. Sexton, Reaves, and Simons rank 68th, 71st, and 72nd respectively in AST%. What am I missing?

Of the huntable scoring guard archetype he's one of the best of the bunch, but I think we'll continue to see the value of those guys continue to diminish. Booker might be the best and I think his contract is already aging like milk.

He has the lowest usage out of the 3. Hard to rack up assists sharing minutes with LeBron and Luka. He an off ball , secondary ball handler till he playing non Lebron minutes.

Small sample size, but he averaged 27/8 the last 10 games LeBron missed. He can legit run pick and roll and orchestrate an offense. Think he a PG in the same manner Booker is. Think lg is phasing out the 6 foot 180 pounds guards.

[Mavrelous]

His contract was limited to roughly 10% of the cap, 15% of the cap is ~25, which should be his deal.
He's not Monk/Powell/Sexton, he's a PG, who did well in short stints as 1st option on ball guy, none of these can dream of that, he is terrible on defense though.

I’ve never seen him this way, he's strictly a 2 in my eyes. Sexton, Reaves, and Simons rank 68th, 71st, and 72nd respectively in AST%. What am I missing?

Of the huntable scoring guard archetype he's one of the best of the bunch, but I think we'll continue to see the value of those guys continue to diminish. Booker might be the best and I think his contract is already aging like milk.

You're missing his teammates, he plays next to LeBron/Luka, Simons for example does this while primary on ball player, Sexton also doesn't have dominant on ball player next to him, Reaves played as the PG in short stints and did very well.
Booker's game is nowhere newr any of those, he's just a much better scorer than any of them.

[Billl]

Free agency is always funny because guys get paid what the most optimistic GM projects, not the average. Somebody might well pay him $25M/yr but I think most have him $15-$20

That's literally how fair market value works. When you receive a bunch of bids, you don't pick the median bid you pick the highest. Do you think people sell for the averaged amount of all offers when they put their houses on the market? What you think is funny is just the most ordinary thing.

Not really. It's not like a real open market where millions of people could potentially buy and sell contracts and prices can reach an equilibrium. eg the price of a car isn't the maximum price the richest person in the world will offer. The fair market value is the point where a product could be bought and sold. If there is only 1 person willing to buy at that price, it fails that basic test.

[mg]

I think he gets a bit more because of the Lakers being such a high visibility team in this league.

He might be worth $20-23 mil per season under this new CBA but likely ends up closer to $28 mil due to the Luka/Lebron Laker effect and being on national TV so much.

With that said the entire league seems over concerned about having weak link defenders in their lineups. A Luka/Reaves lineup could be a concern as it's difficult to hide one weak defender in the playoffs let alone two, especially when one of them is your franchise player.

[PistolPeteJR]

I'd be surprised if he doesnt get at least 30 mill. Think he gets offers like that from Utah/Portland/Chicago/Washington who all have the money to spend and all of whom should be looking to be competitive in 2026/2027.

If youre paying Reaves/Luka 90 mill combined, doesnt that kill the 2027 cap space plan? It really does make their decision this offseason far more odd. This might be the last time in a while that you have a top 15ish player with Luka and a very good 3rd option. I get that Luka is still young and you want future flexibility, but this may be their best chance over the next 5 years...they shoulda capitalized on it a lot more than they did

Yea its why so many of us want to trade Reaves to try to kick the can down the road.... but Luka not extended yet has made things.... worrisome.

Upside is that Reaves only has like a 20ish mil cap hold, so basically if not factoring in Lebron and other FAs,

Luka (max)
Vando (11ish mil)
Rookie deals (Knecht, Bronny)
Reaves caphold (20is mil)
Minimum roster charges

In theory could squeeze in a max deal (not that anyone is worthy of one in the upcoming FA) then re-sign Reaves. Absolute best case scenario is being able to outright absorb salary of a worthy max caliber player while trading out Knect and draft capital, re-sign Ayton to a reasonable deal with cap space(need a big badly), re-sign Reaves to a reasonable deal using his caphold to sign him last, re-sign Lebron to some exception. These set of moves are..... wildly optimistic, but with not bothering to try to retain DFS with just a 2 year guaranteed deal, i dont see what sort of path Pelinka is charting, unless he's really banking on stealing another superstar using magic beans in 2026 FA.

Luka can't extend 'till August 2nd.

[mademan]

I think he gets a bit more because of the Lakers being such a high visibility team in this league.

He might be worth $20-23 mil per season under this new CBA but likely ends up closer to $28 mil due to the Luka/Lebron Laker effect and being on national TV so much.

With that said the entire league seems over concerned about having weak link defenders in their lineups. A Luka/Reaves lineup could be a concern as it's difficult to hide one weak defender in the playoffs let alone two, especially when one of them is your franchise player.

He's a borderline star level guard. 20-23mill would be an absolute steal and 28 is still selling him short. A durable near star level guard like him (who probably would make the all-star game in the east like a Herro) is gonna get over 30mill. There's also a lot more teams with cap space next summer in a pretty weak FA class where Reaves will likely be the best guy available

[BK_2020]

Free agency is always funny because guys get paid what the most optimistic GM projects, not the average. Somebody might well pay him $25M/yr but I think most have him $15-$20

That's literally how fair market value works. When you receive a bunch of bids, you don't pick the median bid you pick the highest. Do you think people sell for the averaged amount of all offers when they put their houses on the market? What you think is funny is just the most ordinary thing.

Not really. It's not like a real open market where millions of people could potentially buy and sell contracts and prices can reach an equilibrium. eg the price of a car isn't the maximum price the richest person in the world will offer. The fair market value is the point where a product could be bought and sold. If there is only 1 person willing to buy at that price, it fails that basic test.

The NBA is not like a real open market in practically every single way.

[Billl]

That's literally how fair market value works. When you receive a bunch of bids, you don't pick the median bid you pick the highest. Do you think people sell for the averaged amount of all offers when they put their houses on the market? What you think is funny is just the most ordinary thing.

Not really. It's not like a real open market where millions of people could potentially buy and sell contracts and prices can reach an equilibrium. eg the price of a car isn't the maximum price the richest person in the world will offer. The fair market value is the point where a product could be bought and sold. If there is only 1 person willing to buy at that price, it fails that basic test.

The NBA is not like a real open market in practically every single way.

Which is why your initial response didn't make much sense. Because it's literally NOT how fair market value is determined in any other part of a free market economy. Your house value isn't determined by whatever the craziest person thinks it is. Banks won't even make the loan unless the house appraises for the offer amount. And that is determined by what all the other houses are being bought and sold for. If you want to overpay $100k and have the cash, go for it. That's not the market value of the house though. You need to be able to both buy and sell the good for the price for it to be considered a fair market value.

[BK_2020]

Not really. It's not like a real open market where millions of people could potentially buy and sell contracts and prices can reach an equilibrium. eg the price of a car isn't the maximum price the richest person in the world will offer. The fair market value is the point where a product could be bought and sold. If there is only 1 person willing to buy at that price, it fails that basic test.

The NBA is not like a real open market in practically every single way.

Which is why your initial response didn't make much sense. Because it's literally NOT how fair market value is determined in any other part of a free market economy. Your house value isn't determined by whatever the craziest person thinks it is. Banks won't even make the loan unless the house appraises for the offer amount. And that is determined by what all the other houses are being bought and sold for. If you want to overpay $100k and have the cash, go for it. That's not the market value of the house though. You need to be able to both buy and sell the good for the price for it to be considered a fair market value.

NBA players are not commodities there won't be millions of transactions buying and selling more or less interchangeable players. They are each very unique and their labors are purchased by buyers with unique needs. One team may be willing to outbid another team for reasons that the other team simply doesn't have. Since NBA players are selling their labors in such a market, what they get actually get paid by the teams that actually buy their work is IMO the best way to set their fair market value.
What's crazy is insisting that NBA players should be priced like corn futures.

[Vae Victus]

Luka can't extend 'till August 2nd.

Which doesnt mean Laker fans shouldnt soil our pants at the fear that Luka might just decide to up and leave, for whatever reason. He already got screwed out of a supermax which is a no brainer for any player to accept, so the Lakers next home team offer wont be so grossly superior than what another team can offer him. Only once Luka signs an extension can Laker fans collectively relax our buttholes and rationally build a team around him in the post Lebron era on a longer timeline than 1 year.

[Billl]

The NBA is not like a real open market in practically every single way.

Which is why your initial response didn't make much sense. Because it's literally NOT how fair market value is determined in any other part of a free market economy. Your house value isn't determined by whatever the craziest person thinks it is. Banks won't even make the loan unless the house appraises for the offer amount. And that is determined by what all the other houses are being bought and sold for. If you want to overpay $100k and have the cash, go for it. That's not the market value of the house though. You need to be able to both buy and sell the good for the price for it to be considered a fair market value.

NBA players are not commodities there won't be millions of transactions buying and selling more or less interchangeable players. They are each very unique and their labors are purchased by buyers with unique needs. One team may be willing to outbid another team for reasons that the other team simply doesn't have. Since NBA players are selling their labors in such a market, what they get actually get paid by the teams that actually buy their work is IMO the best way to set their fair market value.
What's crazy is insisting that NBA players should be priced like corn futures.

In the NBA, fair market value needs to consider whether that guy instantly becomes a bad contract. If other teams don't want him on the deal, it's not fair market value. It's just some bad GM/owner overpaying.

[nykballa2k4]

Free agency is always funny because guys get paid what the most optimistic GM projects, not the average. Somebody might well pay him $25M/yr but I think most have him $15-$20

You are literally describing fair market value.

This is how literally everything works in capitalism.

Technically not "fair market value" but "market value"


FMR is actually a specific term that corresponds with median earnings.
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html

New CBA, I don't think anyone is paying much for Reeves when they can get a similar player for much less and save cap for players with higher ceilings who a) have more gravity and/or b) have more dimensions to their game (ie defensive upside).

[PistolPeteJR]

Luka can't extend 'till August 2nd.

Which doesnt mean Laker fans shouldnt soil our pants at the fear that Luka might just decide to up and leave, for whatever reason. He already got screwed out of a supermax which is a no brainer for any player to accept, so the Lakers next home team offer wont be so grossly superior than what another team can offer him. Only once Luka signs an extension can Laker fans collectively relax our buttholes and rationally build a team around him in the post Lebron era on a longer timeline than 1 year.

I said that because you voiced how he hadn't signed yet.

[SkyHook]

His contract was limited to roughly 10% of the cap, 15% of the cap is ~25, which should be his deal.
He's not Monk/Powell/Sexton, he's a PG, who did well in short stints as 1st option on ball guy, none of these can dream of that, he is terrible on defense though.

I’ve never seen him this way, he's strictly a 2 in my eyes. Sexton, Reaves, and Simons rank 68th, 71st, and 72nd respectively in AST%. What am I missing?

Of the huntable scoring guard archetype he's one of the best of the bunch, but I think we'll continue to see the value of those guys continue to diminish. Booker might be the best and I think his contract is already aging like milk.

You're missing his teammates, he plays next to LeBron/Luka, Simons for example does this while primary on ball player, Sexton also doesn't have dominant on ball player next to him, Reaves played as the PG in short stints and did very well.
Booker's game is nowhere newr any of those, he's just a much better scorer than any of them.

I can get behind Reaves as a "short stint" PG, but I just don't see him as a primary one.

And of course Booker is the peak of the huntable scoring guard archetype, leaps and bound above the others, but I have no problem being wary of his $75MM per year contract.

[BK_2020]

Which is why your initial response didn't make much sense. Because it's literally NOT how fair market value is determined in any other part of a free market economy. Your house value isn't determined by whatever the craziest person thinks it is. Banks won't even make the loan unless the house appraises for the offer amount. And that is determined by what all the other houses are being bought and sold for. If you want to overpay $100k and have the cash, go for it. That's not the market value of the house though. You need to be able to both buy and sell the good for the price for it to be considered a fair market value.

NBA players are not commodities there won't be millions of transactions buying and selling more or less interchangeable players. They are each very unique and their labors are purchased by buyers with unique needs. One team may be willing to outbid another team for reasons that the other team simply doesn't have. Since NBA players are selling their labors in such a market, what they get actually get paid by the teams that actually buy their work is IMO the best way to set their fair market value.
What's crazy is insisting that NBA players should be priced like corn futures.

In the NBA, fair market value needs to consider whether that guy instantly becomes a bad contract. If other teams don't want him on the deal, it's not fair market value. It's just some bad GM/owner overpaying.

Fan reaction is almost always wrong. So often a contract is called untradeable by the Bill Simmons/Internet crowd only for it to be traded away for a little sweetener or even for positive value. Despite this, here on RGM, on X, what have you, fans will continue to insist that GMs are stupid or insane or operating with petty personal vendetta as their primary motives rather than simply accept that NBA front offices have infinitely more data available to them to make these decisions. It's insane.

[nykballa2k4]

NBA players are not commodities there won't be millions of transactions buying and selling more or less interchangeable players. They are each very unique and their labors are purchased by buyers with unique needs. One team may be willing to outbid another team for reasons that the other team simply doesn't have. Since NBA players are selling their labors in such a market, what they get actually get paid by the teams that actually buy their work is IMO the best way to set their fair market value.
What's crazy is insisting that NBA players should be priced like corn futures.

In the NBA, fair market value needs to consider whether that guy instantly becomes a bad contract. If other teams don't want him on the deal, it's not fair market value. It's just some bad GM/owner overpaying.

Fan reaction is almost always wrong. So often a contract is called untradeable by the Bill Simmons/Internet crowd only for it to be traded away for a little sweetener or even for positive value. Despite this, here on RGM, on X, what have you, fans will continue to insist that GMs are stupid or insane or operating with petty personal vendetta as their primary motives rather than simply accept that NBA front offices have infinitely more data available to them to make these decisions. It's insane.

Well, right now you have to go by history. Players who are somewhat similar to Reeves might be Simons, CJ, DAR, Poole. You can even throw Normal Powell and Brad Beal into that chat.

No one is really excited to pay them north of 25M.
Hardaway who was a really good role player for Detroit last year just accepted something similar to a vet min for Denver.

Our current era seems to be high ppg combo lead guard + 4 guys who are switchable. Like an elite scoring big wing will have value because their size makes them a better defender (Cam Johnson, MPJ) but the days of paying big money for 2 guard who is getting you 20's not 30's without playing at least average defense is probably over.
Of note, Reeves is older than I thought at 27. He is pretty much a finished product at this point. Simons by comparison is 26.

[R-DAWG]

This will never happen - but the best long term move for the Lakers would be cashing out both Lebron and Reaves and re-setting the table around Luka, a lotto pick and cap space.

The Lakers would have 87.1MM committed for 5 players - Luka at a 30% max, Vanderbilt, Ayton assuming he picks up his option, LaRavia and Kenecht - along with Bronny’s partial guarantee.

So that’s about 86.5MM to use on 5-6 players - assuming you get to 14 using a minimum, the room exception and a 2nd round pick.

[Vae Victus]

Herb Jones getting 3yrs 68m with 3rd yr PO is pretty much where I’d like Reaves to get as a Laker fan. It’s a reasonable enough amount where it’s a very tradeable deal and Reaves can opt out again at 29 for his last big deal.