2025-2026: Around the League

[Knightro]

Math is undefeated: 1 + 2 = 3. OKC still needs two more rings (≈ 8 %), Orlando needs one (≈ 13 %). Quit nut-riding the Thunder and pick up a probability book.

I admit I was being a little bit trollish, but what you actually said is that they need to win “two in a row”

But two in a row *from this point forward* - which wasn’t actually specified even though I know that that you meant - would actually be be three in a row.

Two in a row *including last year* would mean they only need to win it this year to win “two in a row”. Now I know that’s not what you meant, but I was just using your literal words against you.

You anchored the convo with a three-peat, then instantly moved the goalposts to pull a lame gotcha.

I never said they were going to three peat btw.

I said *if* they do three peat, they won’t give a crap about the luxury tax three years from now because they’ll already be in the pantheon of all time great NBA teams and organizations.

[eyriq]

They’ve already won one in a row dummy.

I also just absolutely hate this way of thinking about like “oh yeah well the Magic have a 13% chance of winning one in the next two years” and it’s like no they don’t. That’s not how it *actually* works.

That’s just a way for people who like math to convince themselves of something to be true when it really isn’t.

More mental gymnastics Yaye!!!!

Got any thoughts of your own or are you just hitching a ride on smarter posters all offseason?

Sorry that was rude of me and a petty shot. You are a smart poster

[MartinsIzAfraud]

They’ve already won one in a row dummy.

I also just absolutely hate this way of thinking about like “oh yeah well the Magic have a 13% chance of winning one in the next two years” and it’s like no they don’t. That’s not how it *actually* works.

That’s just a way for people who like math to convince themselves of something to be true when it really isn’t.

More mental gymnastics Yaye!!!!

Got any thoughts of your own or are you just hitching a ride on smarter posters all offseason?

In terms of thoughts of my own I know AB isn’t a PG and OKC has probably 3x more chance of winning a 2nd Title vs Orlando winning 1.

We’re probably closer to same minded for Orlando but when you say silly stuff it’ll get called out.

All good though this year will be an epic ride

[pepe1991]

Knicks and Magic title odds didn't went up because of return of Mitchel Robinson or additions of Yabusele and Clarkson, nor Magic title odds got up because they got Desmond Bane ( to a degree, but not entirely ).

Knicks and Magic title odds, by betting houses got up because Celtics and Pacers are out of picture for a year, and since somebody HAS to come through East, no matter what, it means that one of teams will actually end up in finals and by default, have shot at winning.

That doesn't mean that East has strong contenders, I personally don't believe East has any actual contender nor any of Knicks/Cavs/Magic would survive first round on West ( i would argue on East, Kyrie-less Dallas would be best team, on West they aren't top 7 ).
What raises up "championship odds" for Knicks/Magic /Cavs is complete lack of serious competition on East. As i said, Celtics & Pacers, two of best teams ,are out of picture and who is even left? Hawks and Bucks.
Wizards, Hornets, Nets will be tanking teams.
Bulls and Heat won't complain much if they end up with sub 30 wins. Bulls even refuse to resign Giddey.
Toronto with new GM will probably break out Ujiri's mess and retool or rebuild at some point. That roster is expensive and mediocre.
76ers, if Embiid can't go, they are tanking again. ( top 4 protected pick, if it falls, it's OKCs pick. God damn you Presti, how can you be so good? )
So 7/15 teams will not even try to win games on regular bases, or winning won't be top priority. Two are hurt. Basically you are left with 6 teams in active win mode. West has 14 such teams


In reality, OKC and Denver, when healthy, are by far strongest nba teams, especially after Nuggets trade. After that, i picked Houston as another contender, Wolves on consistent bases show they can go deep, so that's contender. And that's pretty much it.

Those are title odds from last year. Betting houses on purpose almost always place 3 teams from each conference in top 6 spots, because it's mathematical and logical. Even if Eastern conference team is must weaker than one from West, due worst competition, he can still break out easier to finals, and in finals you can always get lucky and hot ( Heat 2008, Dallas 2011, Spurs 2014 etc )



btw Philly as 3rd title favorite is good example why those odds shouldn't be taken too serious. Betting houses lure is to find enough gullible idiots to place bets on high risk -high reward bets , knowing real probability is extremely low, and money invested will cover them costs of paying off winners and gain them profit.

[drsd]

I never said they were going to three peat btw.

Off-topic I know: But I am getting excited For Orlando to one-peat this year


ONE-PEAT! Bring it on.

[tiderulz]

Knicks and Magic title odds didn't went up because of return of Mitchel Robinson or additions of Yabusele and Clarkson, nor Magic title odds got up because they got Desmond Bane ( to a degree, but not entirely ).

Knicks and Magic title odds, by betting houses got up because Celtics and Pacers are out of picture for a year, and since somebody HAS to come through East, no matter what, it means that one of teams will actually end up in finals and by default, have shot at winning.

That doesn't mean that East has strong contenders, I personally don't believe East has any actual contender nor any of Knicks/Cavs/Magic would survive first round on West ( i would argue on East, Kyrie-less Dallas would be best team, on West they aren't top 7 ).
What raises up "championship odds" for Knicks/Magic /Cavs is complete lack of serious competition on East. As i said, Celtics & Pacers, two of best teams ,are out of picture and who is even left? Hawks and Bucks.
Wizards, Hornets, Nets will be tanking teams.
Bulls and Heat won't complain much if they end up with sub 30 wins. Bulls even refuse to resign Giddey.
Toronto with new GM will probably break out Ujiri's mess and retool or rebuild at some point. That roster is expensive and mediocre.
76ers, if Embiid can't go, they are tanking again. ( top 4 protected pick, if it falls, it's OKCs pick. God damn you Presti, how can you be so good? )
So 7/15 teams will not even try to win games on regular bases, or winning won't be top priority. Two are hurt. Basically you are left with 6 teams in active win mode. West has 14 such teams


In reality, OKC and Denver, when healthy, are by far strongest nba teams, especially after Nuggets trade. After that, i picked Houston as another contender, Wolves on consistent bases show they can go deep, so that's contender. And that's pretty much it.

Those are title odds from last year. Betting houses on purpose almost always place 3 teams from each conference in top 6 spots, because it's mathematical and logical. Even if Eastern conference team is must weaker than one from West, due worst competition, he can still break out easier to finals, and in finals you can always get lucky and hot ( Heat 2008, Dallas 2011, Spurs 2014 etc )



btw Philly as 3rd title favorite is good example why those odds shouldn't be taken too serious. Betting houses lure is to find enough gullible idiots to place bets on high risk -high reward bets , knowing real probability is extremely low, and money invested will cover them costs of paying off winners and gain them profit.

well, everyone thought OKC would sweep Indy and if Haliburton doesnt go down, Indy has a good chance to win the title. So maybe people think the East doesnt have a contender, but you still have to play the games.

And Magic odds increasing is not ONLY because of Boston/Indy being out this year. The team improved, which increases odds.

[drsd]

And Magic odds increasing is not ONLY because of Boston/Indy being out this year. The team improved, which increases odds.

There are three narratives here.

1) The players on the roster improved.
2) The new players are better than the players they replaced.
3) There is a clear management and coaching drive to have a better team.

Frankly, to say the Magic is a top-3 team in the East is about as low as one can project. This is a 55-60 win roster.

[jezzerinho]

Doesn't matter how you get there and nobody will care, if you win the trophy that's all that counts.

We've been in an era for a while of load management by the top teams. They are not chasing regular season record. Sure they'd like homecourt seeding but it's about getting to the dance.

If (big if) we made it through the east, it ceases.to matter about the relative strength of the conferences. It's just you vs somebody else at that point and may the best team win. It's matchup and execution.

[VFX]

The entire season comes down to health. That’s it.

Boston and Indiana can tell you as much by losing their best players.

The problem becomes how deep you are and your replacement players… Orlando has functionally one total replacement starter in Tyus Jones. Nobody else is providing anything else offensively until Moe is back. If Franz or Paolo are out the season is a wash.

Thats what happens when you do not address the bench and your usage is wrapped up in 2 guys running an entire system for it to function. Thats the risk they took instead of doing anything the last 4 years except for selecting draft picks.

So yeah, the odds are better for Orlando. They traded their future for Bane and didn’t lose anything from their previous lineup. They got health and added one element of what they were missing plus a better backup than Cole.

[JoshuaPotter]

The entire season comes down to health. That’s it.

Boston and Indiana can tell you as much by losing their best players.

The problem becomes how deep you are and your replacement players… Orlando has functionally one total replacement starter in Tyus Jones. Nobody else is providing anything else offensively until Moe is back. If Franz or Paolo are out the season is a wash.

Thats what happens when you do not address the bench and your usage is wrapped up in 2 guys running an entire system for it to function. Thats the risk they took instead of doing anything the last 4 years except for selecting draft picks.

So yeah, the odds are better for Orlando. They traded their future for Bane and didn’t lose anything from their previous lineup. They got health and added one element of what they were missing plus a better backup than Cole.

A very valid point. Otherwise saving up Isaac for the post season would make total sense when we faced off against the Cavs and moved him to the starting lineup where he didn't deliver.

Goga also seems to do well until teams adjust and he just doesn't anymore. In a series matchup, Boston really exposed him.

TDS, Jett, G Harris, all exposed their ability to not deliver come playoff time.

Anyway, I like AB and want to add him to your roster of 'potential starters' but unless he really throws down offensively he is just a younger and perhaps better flex defender then KCP with a shot that isn't worth writing home about.

[tiderulz]

The entire season comes down to health. That’s it.

Boston and Indiana can tell you as much by losing their best players.

The problem becomes how deep you are and your replacement players… Orlando has functionally one total replacement starter in Tyus Jones. Nobody else is providing anything else offensively until Moe is back. If Franz or Paolo are out the season is a wash.

Thats what happens when you do not address the bench and your usage is wrapped up in 2 guys running an entire system for it to function. Thats the risk they took instead of doing anything the last 4 years except for selecting draft picks.

So yeah, the odds are better for Orlando. They traded their future for Bane and didn’t lose anything from their previous lineup. They got health and added one element of what they were missing plus a better backup than Cole.

A very valid point. Otherwise saving up Isaac for the post season would make total sense when we faced off against the Cavs and moved him to the starting lineup where he didn't deliver.

Goga also seems to do well until teams adjust and he just doesn't anymore. In a series matchup, Boston really exposed him.

TDS, Jett, G Harris, all exposed their ability to not deliver come playoff time.

Anyway, I like AB and want to add him to your roster of 'potential starters' but unless he really throws down offensively he is just a younger and perhaps better flex defender then KCP with a shot that isn't worth writing home about.

which series? not the playoffs, since he played a total of 3 games, 1 minutes, 2 minutes and 8 minutes. his 2 games during the season, 8 pts, 9 rebs, 3 asst, 2 blocks, 2 steals in 21 minutes and 6 pts 7 rebs 2 assists, in 21 minutes in end of year blowout game.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

The entire season comes down to health. That’s it.

Boston and Indiana can tell you as much by losing their best players.

The problem becomes how deep you are and your replacement players… Orlando has functionally one total replacement starter in Tyus Jones. Nobody else is providing anything else offensively until Moe is back. If Franz or Paolo are out the season is a wash.

Thats what happens when you do not address the bench and your usage is wrapped up in 2 guys running an entire system for it to function. Thats the risk they took instead of doing anything the last 4 years except for selecting draft picks.

So yeah, the odds are better for Orlando. They traded their future for Bane and didn’t lose anything from their previous lineup. They got health and added one element of what they were missing plus a better backup than Cole.

A very valid point. Otherwise saving up Isaac for the post season would make total sense when we faced off against the Cavs and moved him to the starting lineup where he didn't deliver.

Goga also seems to do well until teams adjust and he just doesn't anymore. In a series matchup, Boston really exposed him.

TDS, Jett, G Harris, all exposed their ability to not deliver come playoff time.

Anyway, I like AB and want to add him to your roster of 'potential starters' but unless he really throws down offensively he is just a younger and perhaps better flex defender then KCP with a shot that isn't worth writing home about.

goga only played well when Paolo was out since they both occupy the same space and we had to change how we played a bit.

[VFX]

Goga is a complete non factor unless someone is injured. Mosely pretty much proved that in the last two playoff series.

And I’m a huge Goga fan. I like Centers that protect the rim, set screens, and get rebounds. He’s just not as effective without the ability to switch matchups on defense, which is basically Orlando’s entire defense.

[thelead]

On top of health, let me add that the success of this rebuild will hang on Franz’s 3pt shot and Paolo’s overall efficiency.

[MasterGMer]

Anyone thinks Luka is going to resign with Lakers? I might keep an eye on it. 2027 Free Agency is going to be awesome. But it will have nothing to do with us

[Black and Blue]

Read on Twitter

This is going to be so fun to watch. Asian Jokic.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

I find it funny that Yang Hansen is getting so much attention since he was picked with our draft pick #16.

[Black and Blue]

I find it funny that Yang Hansen is getting so much attention since he was picked with our draft pick #16.

It’s an interesting what if for Magic fans. There was buzz that a handful of teams coveted Yang and thought they could get him in the 20s. The Magic were one of them as Yangs team said they met with Weltman longer than any other GM. He could have been the choice over Jase (we will never know).

Either way he is on a west coast team so we can just sit back and enjoy. Looks like we got a good one in Richardson as well so everyone wins.

[Knightro]

The entire season comes down to health. That’s it.

Boston and Indiana can tell you as much by losing their best players.

The problem becomes how deep you are and your replacement players… Orlando has functionally one total replacement starter in Tyus Jones. Nobody else is providing anything else offensively until Moe is back. If Franz or Paolo are out the season is a wash.

Thats what happens when you do not address the bench and your usage is wrapped up in 2 guys running an entire system for it to function. Thats the risk they took instead of doing anything the last 4 years except for selecting draft picks.

So yeah, the odds are better for Orlando. They traded their future for Bane and didn’t lose anything from their previous lineup. They got health and added one element of what they were missing plus a better backup than Cole.

Theoretically, they’re much better equipped to deal with a potential injury to Paolo or Franz (obviously don’t want either to get hurt) because of Bane, right?

[VFX]

The entire season comes down to health. That’s it.

Boston and Indiana can tell you as much by losing their best players.

The problem becomes how deep you are and your replacement players… Orlando has functionally one total replacement starter in Tyus Jones. Nobody else is providing anything else offensively until Moe is back. If Franz or Paolo are out the season is a wash.

Thats what happens when you do not address the bench and your usage is wrapped up in 2 guys running an entire system for it to function. Thats the risk they took instead of doing anything the last 4 years except for selecting draft picks.

So yeah, the odds are better for Orlando. They traded their future for Bane and didn’t lose anything from their previous lineup. They got health and added one element of what they were missing plus a better backup than Cole.

Theoretically, they’re much better equipped to deal with a potential injury to Paolo or Franz (obviously don’t want either to get hurt) because of Bane, right?

Better equipped than last season? Sure.

But you are still replacing production from the highest usage players imaginable last season with either Tristan da Silva or Jonathan Isaac. Nobody can tell me that reality was unavoidable for the last 5 years up to now.