dougthonus wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:$30 mill is pretty good starter money now. Especially for a 22 year old. It's the equivalent of $24 mill a few years ago. Would really like to know what metrics or method of evaluation people are using when judging how much we should pay Giddey. It's definitely not comparable age players putting up comparable numbers, adjusting for cap increases.
People who think you shouldn't pay him are not looking at counting stats and are concerned that he got played off the court in the playoffs by being constantly targeted and possibly lost his team a playoff series and that if he plays next to a different star player that he'll run into the same problem a gain because he won't have the ball in his hands (which was an issue here while Zach was here), and he isn't good enough to lead a team anywhere as the main guy. Thus he is a floor raiser and ceiling lowering player.
You don't have to believe that narrative, but it's reasonable to believe it and is based in facts just like it's reasonable to believe the Giddey is really good and I'm going to ignore his play prior to the all-star break, because his role changed and post all-star Giddey is what we will get on a consistent basis going forward and this sample size despite being small is reasonable to believe based on age/growth potential.
That would be fine if people were saying they're not willing to pay him. They're not. They're saying he should take less. So you can throw out all the other issues. If you're fine with him starting at $20 mill, you're fine with him starting. Either you want him or not. We have a huge advantage of a market with no money and we're pressing the hell out of it. Argue if you want, no way Giddey doesn't get more if he goes to FA next summer. Much more. All these arguments about what he's worth, he'd have an offer the first minute of FA next summer.
Can't make skills and fit the issue if you're willing to pay him $20-$25 mill to start. Contracts are based primarily on contracts given to comparable players. Comparable players with whatever issues you feel Giddey has still get paid. He's not supposed to accept less than his peers because fans don't like X or Y.
His fair market value is probably quite easily $30+ mill. He can accept the QO. So don't sign him if you don't want him leading the team, but don't say he's worth less but you'll still take him.
Anybody here who's happy if Utah offers him $30 mill, he accepts it and leaves, we get nothing, raise your hand. If he's not worth $30 mill, no big loss.
We easily replace him with another $30 mill player. We can maybe grab Norman Powell (33), Anfernee Simons (27), Collin Sexton (27), or CJ McCullum (34) in FA next summer with that money we're saving. Of course, we once again don't have a point guard (except Sexton) to lead the offense, like the Bulls of the last 3 years, but who cares? We saved 5 mill by lowballing and losing Giddey! Not budging from that $25 mill.
Even better! He accepts the QO, plays great, then we give him $40-$50 mill AAV in 2026 to re-sign him. Now that's cooking with fire!
