RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #1 — 2013 LeBron James

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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#281 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jul 11, 2025 11:24 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
So just out of curiosity - and I'm not making any argument here - how exactly are you distinguishing between general floor-generalship or heliocentricity, vs "passing"?


Passing is first and foremost a specific family of related skills, whereas floor generalship and helio are roles which call upon a broader set of skills.

When I say 'floor general', I generally mean an on-ball decision maker known for passing effectively, with scoring not necessarily part of the role.

When I say 'helio', I mean a style where the primacy of one star is max-ed out through some means in a way that can be hyper-optimized compared to the more balanced loads that tended to dominate the sport pre-Bird/Magic/Jordan. I would say Magic specifically represents the dominant ur-helio approach, before LeBron arrived and it basically became defined by him.

I would note that there's a type of player who I might describe as a successful helio despite mediocre floor generalship, and the poster boy there is probably Giannis.

So then I ask myself: Do I think Jordan's passing was more limited than Giannis'? Nope, I do not.

So do I think Jordan could be an MVP contender today as a helio? Yup, most likely.

I'm not going to say that Jordan doing a LeBron impression today would be optimal, but I definitely think that he'd be best serve to adapt to the pace & space era, and some of those adaptations would be likely to lead to helio tendencies.

Falco did a comparison of Jordan's passing and modern helio passing way back fwiw:
Spoiler:
falcolombardi wrote:
DraymondGold wrote: Hi f4p, falcolombardi :D I'm not sure I agree with your take on Jordan's passing at all, falcolombardi. I'm actually a bit surprised by it. I was watching some of the 91 playoffs recently (a lot of the games are available on YouTube), and I was pretty consistently impressed with Jordan's passing.

For example:


1) 16:44
Layup pass from the 3 point line over 3 defenders. It’s a touch to the left of the guy, but it’s a crazy difficult pass to sneak through this opening and the defense, and he delivers with good vision and speed.

2) 19:31
Goes for the alleyoop pass form the top of the 3 point line. Another very difficult pass, that takes good vision and placement… just a split second too late, but this is a Trae Young level pass.

3) 21:18
Another layup pass from 5 feet behind the 3 point line. This one’s between 2 defenders, with the lookaway to fake out the defense

4) 29:35
Pick and roll left-to-right pocket pass through 2 defenders for the layup.

5) 32:57
Classic Jordan midair pass. Draws the double / soft-triple team, then passes out at the last second. It’s a touch low, but his teammate’s wide open if he wanted the midrange shot (and would have been even more open if he was a 3 point shooter today)

6) 33:53
Another layup pass around 3 defenders. Sees teammate cutting off ball and hits them at the perfect time.

I'm not sure I could confidently name 10 players who could make passes like 1, 2, 3, 5, 6.... and this is from just one single quarter!

These require vision (e.g. #6 requires seeing the cutter and thinking ahead faster than the defense can recover), they're difficult in timing and placement (e.g. #1 requires sneaking it through multiple defenders), they show passing ambition (e.g #2 is Trae-Young like in how ambitious it is), they're high-value passes (#1, 2, 3, 4, 6 are all layup passes on opportunities that wouldn't be generated otherwise), they show the ability to pass in the pick & roll which would be more valuable today (#4), they show Jordan's able to pass in dynamic situations (#5), they show he's able to pass easily out of double teams off his scoring threat (#4-6).... I'm really not seeing this lack of lead-pass ability. Again, this is from just one random quarter I turned on.... and I see similar stuff in his other 91 games. Am I missing something? How do any one of these passes fit the profile of someone who was just a "fairly 'basic' passer"?

Now to be fair, 91 was definitely one of his best passing playoffs. But people normally don't lose passing vision or passing accuracy as he gets older. To me, he just focused more on off-ball stuff as he got older, but if you put him with a coach that pushes him to pass more... I see no reason why he wouldn't be able to make pass #4 out of the pick and roll or pass #5 to a 3 point shooter, or pass #6 at the top of the 3 point line to a cutter.

This absolutely has potential as a heliocentric Top 5 player. It seems miles better than the stuff Durant or healthy Kawhi could ever do, and they're both capable of leading top-of-the-league offenses... and it's not like they're clearly better than Jordan as scorers or off-ball threats.

Do you disagree? I'd love to see film of Jordan's passing limitation if you have any :D


Hi draymond! Nice to talk with you again.

First and foremost i will point out the bolded parts are not the same meaning. I didnt say jordan was a bad passer or couldnt be a lead ball handler. I think that his vision was able of making the correct but basic reads. Which is good enough when you are a top 3 scorer ever

If the word basic sounds more harsh than it should it is unerstandable, but is the word i would use for when someone passing vision goes as far as doing the correct but obvious pass. Which to be kinda honest...most of those passes you highlighted are(more of that in a second, need to explain myself on this)

There is first a need of separating vision from scoring gravity. Jordan passed the former with flying colours but was imo more a solid passing grade at the former

A guy who is a great scorer but lacks a decent vision will waste great creation chances over and over in lieu of tough shots for himself, jordan had a solid enough vision that he could find most of those passing windows hence why he was a great proto helio in the late 80's with his huge scoring threat and offensive load. But he rarely found the "hidden gems" that better passers do

those often hidden in plain sight by the less valuable but safer and clearer dimes or "lost great assist" chances to take a "good enough shot". Side effects of the shot first/pass second that led to his historical scoring seasons (and low turnovers)

as those highest value assists often are more likely to be deflected or stolen, there is a reason most passers dont want or cannot go for them well enough

There are many aspects to creation.

1- One is not taking shots where a pass would do better to your team, jordan failed this at a relatively high rate when a "good enough" shot was available to him. Times where he takes a good pull up where a teammate had a better spot up.

2-Another is not making overt mistakes, those where a player goes for a near impossible shot rather than passing (jordan did this a ton before cleaning up around 87) makes a terrible pass to nowhere,etc. Jordan cleaned these up after his first seasons which is how a player goes from a weak passer to a solid, average capable one like jordan did

3-The next one is precision, the ability to make passes others wouldnt dare to makr threading a narrow path of rival bodies and limbs. Jordan attempts one in the lob you mention but failed to thread the needle (trae young who you mention threads those lobs or other kind of high precision passes consistently but trae young is actually a fairly high standard of a passer to compare to jordan here)

4- the most flashy one is finding the really hidden passes nobody else would see or imagine and frequently seeing them and imagining them. The ones that magic or bird were iconic for but that nash doncic, lebron and others can find with some frequency. These ones that in my analysis jordan rarely made

To look at your examples

16:44 pause the video at roughly the start 16:48 and see how there is a wide open bulls player in the paint clear for everyone to see right in front of jordan field of vision. Is the correct read but is also the obvious one a coach would be angry at his players for missing. Is the right choice of course but is not particularly impressive to send the ball to your teammate totally alone under ths paint right across you

19:31 the lob attempt, the right idea but execution is a bit off the mark. I dont blame jordan for missing the hard but high value pass slighlty...but i know that trae or luka or harden hit those a majority of the time which is another component of why they are better passers

21:18 this is the best pass of the six, as jordan finds the better pass to the interior with grant over the corner 3 and seems to regognize that divac is going to the corner leaving a easy score for horace but if you pause at 21:21 is still a easy one

with a open grant (his defender is basi prop in that angle as he "fronts" him) a inmefective double team that is so far enough that jordan has a comfortable straight line pass in a straight field of vision to make over the two lakers players. As divac is going to guard the corner shooter.

Good pass but one i would expect an starting ball handler make nearly every time

29:40 another good and correct pass that i would expect my ball handler to almost always be able to make in that situation (having the scoring pressure or athletism to create the opening is a different question)as is not exactly that small of a window

is a precise pass quickly delivered but not exactly passing through a narrow corridor of arms, is the kind of good and correct read that is the expected baseline of a modern heliocentric star to be seen as a great passer. Pause at 29:39 and see that the closest rival arms in the ball path is the guard running -behind- jordan who is in no good position/angle to challenge the passing angle even

Jordan obviously stops his momentum while the chasing guard doesnt so it looks like a tighter window it was

32:57 kinda tricky to evaluate. On one side jordan went for the ultra tough shot but then he managed to pass in the air to keep the play moving

If you think he did it on purpose to draw the defense attention it would be a impressive pass but it honestly seems more like a mistake that his athletism and hand size let him solve along some luck that there was a teammate in the right spot for a bailout kick out

Either way it was a score created by jordan scoring pressur more than great vision or anticipation (unless we think he had planed a 3d chess move to pass in the air from the start)

33:53 nice awareness to notice the cutting player getting in position for a pass, easily a good and correct pass but you overstate a fair bit the "3 player wall" im fromt of him a fair bit.

Good but not -great- pass as he recognizes his teammate (again, right in fromt of his field of vision) moving into scoring position and delivers an accurate pass to him.

All of these are good passes, correct reads.(even the bailout pass in the air once he got himself there) but neither is remarkable, they are 6's, 7's maybe one or two 8's. But not the 9's and 10's that the best passers do with relative frequency

Jordan was an all time scorer with huge scoring pressure om defenses and athletism so he could create these "6's and 7's" and maybe some "8's, the kind of assist profile i would expect of an average nba ball handler guard if the average nba guard could score and create off his scoring threat at industrial quantities like jordan

But modern star helios are expected to do those highlight "9's and 10's" assists too, make those though lob passes consistently and not prioritize their own "good enough scoring options" at the expense of better shots for teammates


Man between this and my kareem vs walton post it sucks ass those videos are now deleted off youtube lol

Is like those tracking notes now are just a radio chronic lol
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#282 » by jalengreen » Fri Jul 11, 2025 11:25 pm

Semi OT but I’d be interested in seeing tracking for a Shai game. The “makes a lot of correct but basic reads” criticism is similar to what is said of Shai, so I wonder how exactly he compares to Jordan in that regard. Finals G7 maybe a good one, felt like a playmaking masterclass
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#283 » by VanWest82 » Fri Jul 11, 2025 11:40 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:1. 1991 Michael Jordan. He was just as good the previous couple of years but the added muscle and control ensured teams like Pistons couldn't physically injure him anymore (see game 1 ECF '90). '91 Finals also removed any lingering questions about his ability to control games as a play maker [b]despite being one the best creation non-PGs ever.

Lol, no
"one of the best creation non-pgs ever" in his highest assist game of the playoffs
Spoiler:
RESUME Game 2 (13 assists) MJ 1991 offensively Total Possession when MJ was in the floor – 61 Total Possession of play MJ have action both on/off ball – 58 Total Possession of play MJ didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect – 3 Playmaking
DTOs - 41
EDTOs – 17
ADAs – 4
Double - 8
Triple - 0
Création - 14
R’Creation ( Rim ) - 8
P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) - 6
SC ( Screen ) - 0
EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 7
RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 13
BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) – 3
BB ( Bring ball up ) - 22

MJ only have .67 DTO PP and .28 EDTO PP. He actually bring ball up MORE than Lebron in 2009. But his playmaking still collapse.


An actual great playmaker over randomly selected games:
Spoiler:
RESUME of LEBRON 2013 final Game 1
Total Possession of play when lebron was on the floor on offense and defense – 78
Total Possession of play lebron have action both on/off ball on offense– 68
Playmaking
-DTOs ( Defender take out ) - 70
-EDTOs ( Extra defender taken out ) - 35
- ADAs ( Additional Defenders Affected ) - 9
-Double - 14
-Triple - 3
-Création - 19
~ R’Creation ( Rim ) - 2
- P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) - 17
-SC ( Screen ) - 9
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 11
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 14
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) - 3

- RESUME Game 7 lebron 2013 offensively
Total Possession when bron was in the floor – 86
Total Possession of play lebron have action both on/off ball – 67
Total Possession of play lebron didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect – 19
Playmaking
-DTOs - 64
-EDTOs – 30
- ADAs – 15
-Double - 8
-Triple - 4
-Création - 21
~ R’Creation ( Rim ) – 2
- P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -19
-SC ( Screen ) - 9
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 7
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 14
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) - 3

- RESUME Game 6 lebron 2013 offensively
Total Possession when bron was in the floor – 90
Total Possession of play lebron have action both on/off ball – 80
Playmaking
-DTOs - 76
-EDTOs – 38
- ADAs – 25
-Double - 8
-Triple - 4
-Création - 21
~ R’Creation ( Rim ) – 3
- P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -18
-SC ( Screen ) - 11
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 10
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 20
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) – 2
- BB ( Bring ball up ) - 30

- RESUME GAME 5 FINAL ( I WILL EDIT AND POST WHEN I FIND THE FILES ).

AVERAGE 0.84 DTOs and 0.4 EDTOs per possession

RESUME Game 1 lebron 2009 offensively Total Possession when bron was in the floor – 75 Total Possession that Lebron have action on/offball - 64 Playmaking -DTOs - 69 -EDTOs – 35
ADAs – 19
-Double - 14 -Triple - 3 -Création - 21 ~ R’Creation ( Rim ) – 7
P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -14
-SC ( Screen ) - 1
EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 12
RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 18
BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) – 1
BB ( Bring ball up ) - 16
Scoring -FGA - 30 -FGM - 20 -M ( midrange ) -11 ( 8/11 ) -P ( Post play ) – 2 ( 1/2 ) -R ( Rim : lay up / dunk ) – 11 ( 8/11 ) -T ( 3pt ) – 6 (3/6 ) -PB ( Putback ) – 0 -FTA - 9 + FTM – 6 -OCT ( Offensive Contest ) - 24 -OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested ) - 6
FD ( Foul draw by defender ) - 8
REBOUND
OREB – 3
OBX – 1
NOBX -2


That is .97 DTO pp and .46 EDTO pp.


Thinking the 91 finals was an atg playmaking series for Jordan is the pinnacle of box-watching.

You seem to have twisted what I said a bit, which is that 91 Finals removed most of the remaining stigma of being "just a scorer" even though MJ had been one of the league's best creators (non-PG) for a while at that point, and certainly one of the best ever.

Your tracking analysis of those particular games is interesting. Has anyone who hasn't been relentlessly campaigning for Lebron or against Jordan reproduced your results?

Here's something that's at least not a tiny sample:

Image
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#284 » by OhayoKD » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:03 am

VanWest82 wrote:Your tracking analysis of those particular games is interesting. Has anyone who hasn't been relentlessly campaigning for Lebron reproduced your results?

As it so happens this game was also tracked by someone who thought Jordan was the best peak ever 5 months ago (please note the past tense). He did even worse:
Spoiler:
Top10alltime wrote:Hey guys I have finished tracking the 91 finals game 2 for jordan it was not as good as I thought. Check it out:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Z6j-mQ44u6XqNRSypiJj6wevc2de8Mz8WuKjZzykhl4/edit?usp=drivesdk

Final tally -
15x creation
18 DTOs
7 EDTOs
11x doubled


9 PPD
1 EPPD
6 IPPD

7 PP
2 EPP
5 IPP

OhayoKD wrote:
Top10alltime wrote:Hey guys I have finished tracking the 91 finals game 2 for jordan it was not as good as I thought. Check it out:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Z6j-mQ44u6XqNRSypiJj6wevc2de8Mz8WuKjZzykhl4/edit?usp=drivesdk

Final tally -
15x creation
18 DTOs
7 EDTOs
11x doubled


9 PPD
1 EPPD
6 IPPD

7 PP
2 EPP
5 IPP


Going to convert this to per-possession so it can be used comparatively

As we don't have the # of possessions I'm going to multiply MJ minutes played/48 and multiply that by the pace (84) for an estimate which gets us about 63.

This means per-possession Jordan had around .28 DTOS and .11 EDTOS.

Defensively this would give Jordan, per-possession, around 0.143 PPDs, 0.01 EPPDs, 0.02 IPPDs, .11 PPs, 0.03 EPPs and .08 IPPs.



We also looked at his defense by the way, take a look:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2468382
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#285 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:07 am

One_and_Done wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
So just out of curiosity - and I'm not making any argument here - how exactly are you distinguishing between general floor-generalship or heliocentricity, vs "passing"?


Passing is first and foremost a specific family of related skills, whereas floor generalship and helio are roles which call upon a broader set of skills.

When I say 'floor general', I generally mean an on-ball decision maker known for passing effectively, with scoring not necessarily part of the role.

When I say 'helio', I mean a style where the primacy of one star is max-ed out through some means in a way that can be hyper-optimized compared to the more balanced loads that tended to dominate the sport pre-Bird/Magic/Jordan. I would say Magic specifically represents the dominant ur-helio approach, before LeBron arrived and it basically became defined by him.

I would note that there's a type of player who I might describe as a successful helio despite mediocre floor generalship, and the poster boy there is probably Giannis.

So then I ask myself: Do I think Jordan's passing was more limited than Giannis'? Nope, I do not.

So do I think Jordan could be an MVP contender today as a helio? Yup, most likely.

I'm not going to say that Jordan doing a LeBron impression today would be optimal, but I definitely think that he'd be best serve to adapt to the pace & space era, and some of those adaptations would be likely to lead to helio tendencies.

In actuality though, I'm assuming you wouldn't even have MJ as the best player in today's league.


I have more confidence with LeBron than Jordan when it comes to the era we've seen LeBron, but I don't have certainty as to who the better player would be.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#286 » by OhayoKD » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:22 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Passing is first and foremost a specific family of related skills, whereas floor generalship and helio are roles which call upon a broader set of skills.

When I say 'floor general', I generally mean an on-ball decision maker known for passing effectively, with scoring not necessarily part of the role.

When I say 'helio', I mean a style where the primacy of one star is max-ed out through some means in a way that can be hyper-optimized compared to the more balanced loads that tended to dominate the sport pre-Bird/Magic/Jordan. I would say Magic specifically represents the dominant ur-helio approach, before LeBron arrived and it basically became defined by him.

I would note that there's a type of player who I might describe as a successful helio despite mediocre floor generalship, and the poster boy there is probably Giannis.

So then I ask myself: Do I think Jordan's passing was more limited than Giannis'? Nope, I do not.

So do I think Jordan could be an MVP contender today as a helio? Yup, most likely.

I'm not going to say that Jordan doing a LeBron impression today would be optimal, but I definitely think that he'd be best serve to adapt to the pace & space era, and some of those adaptations would be likely to lead to helio tendencies.

In actuality though, I'm assuming you wouldn't even have MJ as the best player in today's league.


I have more confidence with LeBron than Jordan when it comes to the era we've seen LeBron, but I don't have certainty as to who the better player would be.

Assuming the same league the gap between the two probably increases the further you transport them back. (i am assuming an off-season after entering as they were or they enter as they were in the draft)
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#287 » by homecourtloss » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:33 am

AEnigma wrote:
Djoker wrote:2018 Lakers: 35-47 record, -1.44 SRS
2019 Lakers: 37-45 record, -1.33 SRS
Delta: +2 wins, +0.11 SRS

[No 1986 Bulls]

1995 Bulls: 47-35 record, +4.32 SRS
1996 Bulls: 72-10 record, +11.80 SRS
Delta: +25 wins, +7.48 SRS

1998 Bulls: 62-20 record, +7.24 SRS
1999 Bulls: 21-61 record, -8.58 SRS (record prorated to 82-game season)
Delta: +41 wins, +15.82 SRS

All in all, I'd say the context favors Lebron substantially with these WOWY metrics and yet his lead is almost non-existent.

Hysterical interpretations of “context” here.


:lol: :lol:
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#288 » by homecourtloss » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:42 am

falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:Since he changed teams a lot, Lebron actually gave us some whole-season WOWY signals. Unlike the noisy little fragments that OhayoKD posts, these can actually tell us something. Of course, the rosters are still substantially different from season to season that there is still plenty of noise but at least they are some sort of signals especially when you average a few of them.

Lebron James - WOWY

Spoiler:
2003 Cavs: 17-65 record, -9.59 SRS
2004 Cavs: 35-47 record, -3.07 SRS
Delta: +18 wins, +6.52 SRS

2010 Cavs: 61-21 record, +6.17 SRS
2011 Cavs: 19-63 record, -8.88 SRS
Delta: +42 wins, +15.05 SRS

2010 Heat: 47-35 record, +1.99 SRS
2011 Heat: 58-24 record, +6.76 SRS
Delta: +11 wins, +4.77 SRS

2014 Heat: 54-28 record, +4.15 SRS
2015 Heat: 37-45 record, -2.92 SRS
Delta: +17 wins, +7.07 SRS

2014 Cavs: 33-49 record, -3.86 SRS
2015 Cavs: 53-29 record, +4.08 SRS
Delta: +20 wins, +7.94 SRS

2018 Cavs: 50-32 record, +0.59 SRS
2019 Cavs: 19-63 record, -9.39 SRS
Delta: +31 wins, +9.98 SRS

2018 Lakers: 35-47 record, -1.44 SRS
2019 Lakers: 37-45 record, -1.33 SRS
Delta: +2 wins, +0.11 SRS

Average: +20.1 wins, +7.35 SRS

Michael Jordan - WOWY

Spoiler:
1984 Bulls: 27-55 record, -4.69 SRS
1985 Bulls: 38-44 record, -0.50 SRS
Delta: +11 wins, +4.19 SRS

1993 Bulls: 57-25 record, +6.19 SRS
1994 Bulls: 55-27 record, +2.87 SRS
Delta: +2 wins, +3.32 SRS

1995 Bulls: 47-35 record, +4.32 SRS
1996 Bulls: 72-10 record, +11.80 SRS
Delta: +25 wins, +7.48 SRS

1998 Bulls: 62-20 record, +7.24 SRS
1999 Bulls: 21-61 record, -8.58 SRS (record prorated to 82-game season)
Delta: +41 wins, +15.82 SRS

2001 Wizards: 19-63 record, -6.75 SRS
2002 Wizards: 37-45 record, -1.58 SRS
Delta: +18 wins, +5.17 SRS

2003 Wizards: 37-45 record, -1.47 SRS
2004 Wizards: 25-57 record, -6.12 SRS
Delta: +12 wins, +4.65 SRS

Average: +18.2 wins, +6.77 SRS

Lebron with a slight edge as both guys showing an average of roughly +7 SRS.

By the way, I think Jordan is disadvantaged here since he has 2/6 data points from his Wizards years at age 38 to 40 whereas Lebron's last signal came at age 33/34. Lebron also joined two teams (Heat in 2010, Cavs in 2014) with one more star whereas Jordan always joined teams alone. Lebron has two teams that tanked after he left (2011 Cavs, 2019 Cavs) while Jordan has one (1999 Bulls). And Lebron will also give us at least one more WOWY signal when he retires and it's easy to see how that one could drag his average down. Jordan is also posting virtually the same delta despite playing on better teams on average. It's harder to improve a team that's already better. The average team above with Lebron has a +2.48 SRS while the average team with Jordan has a +4.14 SRS.

All in all, I'd say the context favors Lebron substantially with these WOWY metrics and yet his lead is almost non-existent.


Wait are you counting the 2019 lakers full record? He played about as many games that season as jordan did in 95 but you didnt include 1995 as a season jordan played
.


The games played are more significant than that, but the overall,tenor of what was presented is true. This doesn’t even go into 1999 providing a big chunk of what’s boosting Jordan. An honest representation would see two clear tiers between these two.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#289 » by One_and_Done » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:46 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Passing is first and foremost a specific family of related skills, whereas floor generalship and helio are roles which call upon a broader set of skills.

When I say 'floor general', I generally mean an on-ball decision maker known for passing effectively, with scoring not necessarily part of the role.

When I say 'helio', I mean a style where the primacy of one star is max-ed out through some means in a way that can be hyper-optimized compared to the more balanced loads that tended to dominate the sport pre-Bird/Magic/Jordan. I would say Magic specifically represents the dominant ur-helio approach, before LeBron arrived and it basically became defined by him.

I would note that there's a type of player who I might describe as a successful helio despite mediocre floor generalship, and the poster boy there is probably Giannis.

So then I ask myself: Do I think Jordan's passing was more limited than Giannis'? Nope, I do not.

So do I think Jordan could be an MVP contender today as a helio? Yup, most likely.

I'm not going to say that Jordan doing a LeBron impression today would be optimal, but I definitely think that he'd be best serve to adapt to the pace & space era, and some of those adaptations would be likely to lead to helio tendencies.

In actuality though, I'm assuming you wouldn't even have MJ as the best player in today's league.


I have more confidence with LeBron than Jordan when it comes to the era we've seen LeBron, but I don't have certainty as to who the better player would be.

I did not say Lebron though, I said you would probably not project Jordan as the best player in today's league if he played today. I assume you'd rate others like Jokic over him too
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#290 » by OhayoKD » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:53 am

One_and_Done wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:In actuality though, I'm assuming you wouldn't even have MJ as the best player in today's league.


I have more confidence with LeBron than Jordan when it comes to the era we've seen LeBron, but I don't have certainty as to who the better player would be.

I did not say Lebron though, I said you would probably not project Jordan as the best player in today's league if he played today. I assume you'd rate others like Jokic over him too

If Lebron is a maybe Jokic is probably a no lol
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#291 » by OhayoKD » Sat Jul 12, 2025 12:56 am

homecourtloss wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:Since he changed teams a lot, Lebron actually gave us some whole-season WOWY signals. Unlike the noisy little fragments that OhayoKD posts, these can actually tell us something. Of course, the rosters are still substantially different from season to season that there is still plenty of noise but at least they are some sort of signals especially when you average a few of them.

Lebron James - WOWY

Spoiler:
2003 Cavs: 17-65 record, -9.59 SRS
2004 Cavs: 35-47 record, -3.07 SRS
Delta: +18 wins, +6.52 SRS

2010 Cavs: 61-21 record, +6.17 SRS
2011 Cavs: 19-63 record, -8.88 SRS
Delta: +42 wins, +15.05 SRS

2010 Heat: 47-35 record, +1.99 SRS
2011 Heat: 58-24 record, +6.76 SRS
Delta: +11 wins, +4.77 SRS

2014 Heat: 54-28 record, +4.15 SRS
2015 Heat: 37-45 record, -2.92 SRS
Delta: +17 wins, +7.07 SRS

2014 Cavs: 33-49 record, -3.86 SRS
2015 Cavs: 53-29 record, +4.08 SRS
Delta: +20 wins, +7.94 SRS

2018 Cavs: 50-32 record, +0.59 SRS
2019 Cavs: 19-63 record, -9.39 SRS
Delta: +31 wins, +9.98 SRS

2018 Lakers: 35-47 record, -1.44 SRS
2019 Lakers: 37-45 record, -1.33 SRS
Delta: +2 wins, +0.11 SRS

Average: +20.1 wins, +7.35 SRS

Michael Jordan - WOWY

Spoiler:
1984 Bulls: 27-55 record, -4.69 SRS
1985 Bulls: 38-44 record, -0.50 SRS
Delta: +11 wins, +4.19 SRS

1993 Bulls: 57-25 record, +6.19 SRS
1994 Bulls: 55-27 record, +2.87 SRS
Delta: +2 wins, +3.32 SRS

1995 Bulls: 47-35 record, +4.32 SRS
1996 Bulls: 72-10 record, +11.80 SRS
Delta: +25 wins, +7.48 SRS

1998 Bulls: 62-20 record, +7.24 SRS
1999 Bulls: 21-61 record, -8.58 SRS (record prorated to 82-game season)
Delta: +41 wins, +15.82 SRS

2001 Wizards: 19-63 record, -6.75 SRS
2002 Wizards: 37-45 record, -1.58 SRS
Delta: +18 wins, +5.17 SRS

2003 Wizards: 37-45 record, -1.47 SRS
2004 Wizards: 25-57 record, -6.12 SRS
Delta: +12 wins, +4.65 SRS

Average: +18.2 wins, +6.77 SRS

Lebron with a slight edge as both guys showing an average of roughly +7 SRS.

By the way, I think Jordan is disadvantaged here since he has 2/6 data points from his Wizards years at age 38 to 40 whereas Lebron's last signal came at age 33/34. Lebron also joined two teams (Heat in 2010, Cavs in 2014) with one more star whereas Jordan always joined teams alone. Lebron has two teams that tanked after he left (2011 Cavs, 2019 Cavs) while Jordan has one (1999 Bulls). And Lebron will also give us at least one more WOWY signal when he retires and it's easy to see how that one could drag his average down. Jordan is also posting virtually the same delta despite playing on better teams on average. It's harder to improve a team that's already better. The average team above with Lebron has a +2.48 SRS while the average team with Jordan has a +4.14 SRS.

All in all, I'd say the context favors Lebron substantially with these WOWY metrics and yet his lead is almost non-existent.


Wait are you counting the 2019 lakers full record? He played about as many games that season as jordan did in 95 but you didnt include 1995 as a season jordan played
.


The games played are more significant than that, but the overall,tenor of what was presented is true. This doesn’t even go into 1999 providing a big chunk of what’s boosting Jordan. An honest representation would see two clear tiers between these two.

1999 is especially noisy but it's inclusion is consistent if crude. Using 96 instead of 95 and counting games Lebron didn't play as "with" is clear cut data fudging though
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#292 » by trelos6 » Sat Jul 12, 2025 1:23 am

Nearly 300 posts. Let’s hope the next 10 threads live up to this one.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#293 » by One_and_Done » Sat Jul 12, 2025 1:26 am

trelos6 wrote:Nearly 300 posts. Let’s hope the next 10 threads live up to this one.

It won't. As soon as Jordan gets in, his casual fans will leave. There was a similar pattern with the #1 thread in the top 100 project.

18 pages for #1, 12 for #2, and by #5 it was down to 9 pages.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#294 » by trevon2x » Sat Jul 12, 2025 1:57 am

1. 2017 LeBron James (2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2016, 2018, 2014)
I feel as if, everything considered, 2017 is simple LeBron James at his absolute apex. When we discuss LeBron's best seasons, one of the aspects that doesn't get talked about nearly enough is his off-ball play, however we saw him have one of the two best off-ball seasons of his career in 2017, with the other one being 2014. However, I feel as if 2017 was better in the postseason, as we saw him deliver all time performances in the Raptors, Celtics and Warriors series. I also feel as if 2017 is one of LeBron's best playmaking seasons, while still being an elite wing defender. One thing about 2017 LeBron I don't see being talked about enough is him showing his ceiling raising skillset, sharing an on-ball load with Kyrie Irving in the playoffs, providing elite production off the ball in multiple different aspects offensively and being the engine to a +16.4 rORTG (defense-adjusted) when on the court. I feel as if the needle mover here is LeBron being able to provide offensive impact even when the ball isn't in his hands.
2. 1991 Michael Jordan (1990, 1989, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1996)
I won't dive too deep into this one, but what I saw from the Lakers series, especially Games 1 and 2, inclined me to put this here. Would love to hear some counter arguments, however.
3. 2016 Stephen Curry (2021, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2015)
I'm just going to say it, outside a couple Jordan years I don't see any regular season in NBA history that is locked over 2016 Stephen Curry. I also feel as if there is no better offensive season than 2016 Stephen. When we look at elite off-ball offensive players like Klay Thompson, Reggie Miller and Ray Allen, these guys are providing you limited value on the ball. Same thing vice versa, I feel as if elite on-ball offensive players like James Harden, Luka Dončić and even LeBron aren't able to consistently provide that off-ball value. If it's not blatantly obvious by now, Stephen Curry is the clear anomaly here. When we talk about on-ball offense (scoring+playmaking), Curry is able to do both at an elite level, while also being the best off-ball scorer and playmaker in the NBA. The mastery of those 4 traits combined is unlike anything we've ever seen before, and that is just his skillset. We see how Steph is able to allow Draymond to maximize him offensively, and how he is able to make a defensive-slanted roster a top 3 regular season offense in NBA history (could have potentially been #1 if the 04 Mavs didn't play in one of the toughest defensive eras in NBA history, and if Steph, Klay and Draymond played more than 34 MPG). I also feel as if people underrate this season because of the playoffs (Skewed due to misinterpretations of him as a basketball player, RS far bigger sample size) and myths about his defense (positive defender due to value provided from defensive playmaking + ability to hold his own against opposing point guards such as Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker). I think this is the best off-ball season we have ever seen, while also being one of the best on-ball scoring seasons ever, to go along with an uncanny ability to space the floor, which raised the floor of the offense to a +8.1 rORTG.
Please let me know your thoughts, especially about Stephen Curry!
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#295 » by One_and_Done » Sat Jul 12, 2025 2:07 am

trevon2x wrote:1. 2017 LeBron James
2. 1991 Michael Jordan
3. 2016 Stephen Curry

Would love to go in-depth on Stephen, but time isn't in my hand. Ask away, though!

You need to give reasons for your vote to count, and provide back up options (eg if Lebron 2017 doesn't win, what's your order for other Lebron years).
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#296 » by Elpolo_14 » Sat Jul 12, 2025 2:08 am

trevon2x wrote:1. 2017 LeBron James
2. 1991 Michael Jordan
3. 2016 Stephen Curry

Would love to go in-depth on Stephen, but time isn't in my hand. Ask away, though!


You need to put at least 1-2 line of reasoning why you're chosing these player. Even if you don't have time to deep drive it would make you vote counts regardless. ( If you don't put reasoning your vote will not count )
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#297 » by Elpolo_14 » Sat Jul 12, 2025 2:12 am

One_and_Done wrote:
trelos6 wrote:Nearly 300 posts. Let’s hope the next 10 threads live up to this one.

It won't. As soon as Jordan gets in, his casual fans will leave. There was a similar pattern with the #1 thread in the top 100 project.

18 pages for #1, 12 for #2, and by #5 it was down to 9 pages.


I wish the intensity will at LEAST stay around 70% of what we having now.

IMO The most interesting part would start after the top 3 with always the same pattern player get selected. Damn I wanna discuss about Magic / Steph / KG or even Paul Pierce / Barkley / Jason kidd. see how people think of each player who isn't consensus ranked among the population.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#298 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Sat Jul 12, 2025 2:47 am

One_and_Done wrote:
trelos6 wrote:Nearly 300 posts. Let’s hope the next 10 threads live up to this one.

It won't. As soon as Jordan gets in, his casual fans will leave. There was a similar pattern with the #1 thread in the top 100 project.

18 pages for #1, 12 for #2, and by #5 it was down to 9 pages.


Just for the record - because I bothered to count - the # of posts in this thread made by those who either voted LeBron #1 or otherwise LeBron over Jordan is roughly 176. The # of posts in this thread made by those who voted Jordan #1(plus mine, though I'm not voting) is roughly 85, less than half.

I counted roughly another 17 posts from those who either didn't vote or voted for neither LeBron nor Jordan.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#299 » by f4p » Sat Jul 12, 2025 2:55 am

OhayoKD wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Wait are you counting the 2019 lakers full record? He played about as many games that season as jordan did in 95 but you didnt include 1995 as a season jordan played
.


The games played are more significant than that, but the overall,tenor of what was presented is true. This doesn’t even go into 1999 providing a big chunk of what’s boosting Jordan. An honest representation would see two clear tiers between these two.

1999 is especially noisy but it's inclusion is consistent if crude. Using 96 instead of 95 and counting games Lebron didn't play as "with" is clear cut data fudging though


setting aside that context wasn't applied to any of the numbers and was just presented as is (no accounting for adding rodman, bosh, love, or subtracing pippen), wouldn't using 96 instead of 95 make more sense? even using 95 gives a +20 WOWY (13-4 = 63 wins vs 34-31 = 43 wins). and setting aside that the numbers presented for 95 include jordan inflating the record up to 47-35 so it's actually undercounting the 95 to 96 difference, it's not like anyone thinks the 17 games jordan played in the regular season in 1995 represent actual prime michael jordan. 22.1 PER with 29+ on either side in 1993 and 1996. 0.167 WS48 with 0.270 and 0.317 on either side. terrible 4.2 BPM with 11.2 and 10.5 on either side. every number is a pre-wizards career low by a country mile.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project - #1 

Post#300 » by The Explorer » Sat Jul 12, 2025 2:59 am

IlikeSHAIguys wrote:1 - 2009 Lebron James
2 - 2003 Tim Duncan
3 - 1962 Bill Russell

Honest I feel like the votes putting MJ ahead are basically justifying the #1 for me. One is avoiding 1 year anything probably because 2009 has the GOAT weird stats crazy on/off and has the Cavs go from like 60 wins to 15. Two are listing stats which literally have Lebron ahead but are just ignoring that.

But whatever. Lebron's obviously on a different level on defense and in terms of passing and this Lebron has the best stats and the best impact and the only thing people really have to say is that he lost while averaging a 30 point triple double vs a great defense. Also it sort of matters he's doing it against way more talent. Feel like no one would be questioning this as #1 if the Cavs just win so I'm not going to change my mind just because Lebron's team let him down. Like pretty much everyone going for MJ loves stuff like PER or whatever but then ignores that 2009 is just waaay ahead of everyone in all those stats in the playoffs and right at the top before that.

Like you're talking about the best regular season ever. And then Lebron goes from 28 to 35 and his true-shooting actually goes up. I feel like if you're just going to add GOAT scoring to the GOAT RS that's the #1 peak.


So if 2009 was the greatest of all time peak season and his teammates let him down, how are you accounting for the following:

- James goes scoreless in the 4th quarter of the ECF Game 1
- James gets outplayed by Hedo Turkoglu down the stretch
- James commits 4+ turnovers in 5 of the 6 games ECF
- His turnovers late in game 4 helped hand Orlando the game despite a double-digit lead
- Shot just 28.6% from 3 in the ECF, and Orlando routinely went under screens and dared him to shoot
- Orlando hunted LeBron on pick-and-rolls — he routinely died on screens and didn’t fight through.
- 2nd-worst FG% of the series came in the series-clinching Game 6 (40%)
- Lost in 6 games to the Dwight Howard-led Magic despite being the heavy favorite and having home-court advantage
- Overall in the 2009 Playoffs FT%: 74.6% — barely above average, and only 68% in the 4th quarter of close games
- On not facing Bryant in the finals: "I didn’t hold up my end of the bargain,” James said of 2009, when the Cavs were upset by the Orlando Magic in the conference finals. “I know the world wanted to see it. I wanted it, he wanted it. He held up his end, I didn’t hold up my end and I hate that. I hate that it didn’t happen.” He admits he wasn't up to par, and by implication admits Bryant performed better, and yet we are supposed to take your word that this was the greatest season anyone has ever had in the history of the sport.

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