RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project Discussion Thread

[Junoobi]

Interested

[trevon2x]

Can I join?

[AEnigma]

If people also want to use this thread to touch on their approach in assessing peaks, that could help avoid some of the directionless back-and-forth we see when one party assumes their method of assessment is the same as another’s.

Another potential use for this thread could be thoughts on which players should have been included in 2022 or alternatively which players would be good to see included in this iteration (again, fingers crossed there is enough energy for us to hit 60 inductions this time).

As a reminder, here were the excluded players receiving votes in 2022’s fiftieth thread:
Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Manu Ginobili, Kevin Love, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Jayson Tatum, Connie Hawkins, Dave Cowens, Bob McAdoo, Sidney Moncrief, Kevin McHale, John Stockton, Clyde Drexler, Reggie Miller, Dikembe Mutombo, Grant Hill.

Of those, I would definitely support Dave Cowens (wanted him in the top fifty back then), Jimmy Butler (feel stronger about him after the second Finals run), Jayson Tatum (improved), Paul George, Bob McAdoo, Kevin McHale, Connie Hawkins, and Manu Ginobili. Adding Shai as someone who would not have been considered previously but almost certainly will make the list now, and that leaves one spot for me. Currently leaning toward Reggie Miller, but would also consider Grant Hill, Vince Carter, Marques Johnson…

[jalengreen]

If people also want to use this thread to touch on their approach in assessing peaks, that could help avoid some of the directionless back-and-forth we see when one party assumes their method of assessment is the same as another’s.

Another potential use for this thread could be thoughts on which players should have been included in 2022 or alternatively which players would be good to see included in this iteration (again, fingers crossed there is enough energy for us to hit 60 inductions this time).

As a reminder, here were the excluded players receiving votes in 2022’s fiftieth thread:
Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Manu Ginobili, Kevin Love, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Jayson Tatum, Connie Hawkins, Dave Cowens, Bob McAdoo, Sidney Moncrief, Kevin McHale, John Stockton, Clyde Drexler, Reggie Miller, Dikembe Mutombo, Grant Hill.

Of those, I would definitely support Dave Cowens (wanted him in the top fifty back then), Jimmy Butler (feel stronger about him after the second Finals run), Jayson Tatum (improved), Paul George, Bob McAdoo, Kevin McHale, Connie Hawkins, and Manu Ginobili. Adding Shai as someone who would not have been considered previously but almost certainly will make the list now, and that leaves one spot for me. Currently leaning toward Reggie Miller, but would also consider Grant Hill, Vince Carter, Marques Johnson…

I'd start to consider Lillard if there are more spots.

Fun fact I saw the other day is that Lillard snuck in a 4 year stretch in which he had the highest oDARKO in the league.

Spoiler:

This is mostly due to the well-timed declines of the 2010s stars as his peak on that end is still a couple of rungs below them, but still found that fairly impressive when you're talking about him compared to peaks like Kevin Love or Paul George.

Spoiler:

Case against Lillard would primarily be his defense. Can only really talk about his offensive impact numbers because the defensive side of things really knocks things down. For example, he was #1 in oRAPM and #753 in dRAPM in a five year study (2019-23), good for 11th overall. Speaking of which, damn PG is #1 in that span with the 15th best oRAPM and 5th best dRAPM. HIs defensive RAPM numbers were really good in his prime.

If somebody was high on offensive phenom production from their point guard and could wave away awful defense at the position, I think they could end up with a soft spot for Lillard.

Other tough part is the lack of a clear peak season. Maybe 2019? Does have the "outplaying peak PG13 h2h" argument going for him there

[Smoothbutta]

I'd be interested as well but no worries if it's too late or I don't qualify

In any case I am curious as I can't find the boundary conditions for the project: since it is tied to single-season peak, is playoff/team success supposed to be considered or is that part subjective up to the voters? With '11 Dirk being ahead of '03 Tmac I assume we are meant to consider playoff success.

Also if 2 people nominate '16 Curry for example and 2 people nominate '17 Curry, does he essentially miss out on the candidate list if there are six other players with 3 votes for a single season? EDIT: Nevermind I see that you can put ('16 Curry > '17 Curry) and so-on.

[runtmc]

Obviously a little late to the party, but is there an agreed upon set of criteria for determining greatest peak? I dont see anything in this thread or the voting thread that covers it -- or is it just up to the individual voter to determine what "greatest peak" means? Not sure if it was discussed/covered in previous iterations, and was just curious.

[Elpolo_14]

Obviously a little late to the party, but is there an agreed upon set of criteria for determining greatest peak? I dont see anything in this thread or the voting thread that covers it -- or is it just up to the individual voter to determine what "greatest peak" means? Not sure if it was discussed/covered in previous iterations, and was just curious.

Totally depends on the voter criteria and reasoning. You just need to vote and layout some argument then the votes will count. Which ever player have more votes is the winner for each thread.

[trelos6]

There are already a few criteria which have been brought up in the first pick.

1. Injuries. Some are turning off injuries and assuming players were full health. This should be fine if they played 60 games plus playoffs. But once they start to dip below that, I get a little harsher.

2. Peak in today’s game. Personally, I don’t care all that much. I’m ranking them relative to their peers. Sure, that means Mikan should be high, if you value his game. And he should probably go in the top 10-15 then.

3. Playoff weight. Some weigh playoffs 5x or 7x to regular season performances. I think I’m more in the 3x camp.

[iggymcfrack]

I'm very interested! I've never done a peaks project before. I feel like I know my #1 and #2 and then there's a big mass of like 8 seasons that are all undifferentiated in the 3-10 range. I think this would be an excellent situation to research, listen, and learn while I come up with my own list.

[iggymcfrack]

I'd like to join discussions, assuming this is higher-level basketball discussion than the GOAT thread on the General Board. That thread is low-level shouting.

PC forum project discussion is always miles better than random threads on the General Board.

[jalengreen]

Pedantic pet peeve here but can we get the B in LeBron capitalized on the master post? Feels wrong to see it lowercase lol

[AEnigma]

I know it's just an example, and #2 is far too early, but I appreciate seeing it because I would appreciate '04 AK getting on the list somewhere this year. I'm not certain if that team wins 10 games without AK.

Moving this here.

Would you have included him on the 2022 list, and if so, over whom? What about the names I listed previously in that #50-60 range?

I probably have Kirilenko more as a top 75 peak, along with three of my previous honourable mentions, Bernard King, Ray Allen, yeah probably Lillard… oh, I just noticed Dolph Schayes never made any of these lists, so throw him in for the purposes of era representation, and possibly Paul Arizin while we are at it… and now we are getting into the area where I would at least consider 1994 Dikembe, 1992 Rodman, 2002 Rasheed, 2003 Kidd, 2007 BDiddy, 2005/08 Pierce, etc., but I am not sure how much energy people will have to stretch this to 75.

I think it is a pretty big obstacle for Kirilenko that he was basically functioning as a roleplayer in all his postseasons, so really all there is to judge is that laudatory 2004-06 regular season stretch. Again, definite top 75 peak imo, but cracking the top 50 or even 60 with no noteworthy postseason sample feels ambitious at first glance.

[Lebronnygoat]

Peaks

Kareem- 74

Only guy who could push Lebron. ATG Rim protection. Good D. Went 35/5/13 on +8rTS in the yoffs. Extremely Underrated PM, even late-prime

Spoiler:

Randomly decided to track Kareem in 1987, just to see how much post volume and gravity he still received. And, to say the least, it's quite a lot. I counted 8 times he created an advantage for his teammate.

1987 Game 1, Supersonics vs Lakers

https://youtu.be/YaHwfjjhETE?si=v7bq1qjgtBkds4Oe

5:45
9:00 (Undeniably creation, as there's an open paint shot to the right of the screen)
[img]
https://ibb.co/Lx8wLVB
[/img]
10:20
20:55
45:00
53:15
1:02:25
1:41:30

Please look at 6:05, even the commentators of the opposing team, who only just started playing the Lakers today, called Kareem a dilemma, either you double/triple and force him to pass, or go one on one. Kareem's scoring was particularly harder than the rest of the team. He definitely had issues had passing out too little, but, he still remains insanely efficient up until 1988. Mind you, this man is 40 years old!

Kareem is extremely underrated.

Kareem is extremely underrated.

D gap vs MJ is much bigger than O gap:

Spoiler:

Yeah I don’t know about that one friend:
https://sports.yahoo.com/a-closer-look-at-michael-jordans-1988-dpoy-award-raises-questions-about-its-validity-has-lebron-james-been-chasing-a-ghost-140452567.html

There’s a lot of um questionable Jordan stuff flying around to say the least. And that includes this thread tbh

Lmao, of course there’s controversy there, I still think he was unbelievable that regular season regardless of steal count, but that’s wild. If anything, just further solidifies LBJ at #1 for me (:

Kareem in 2 years (74 and 77) also is clearing peak Jordan (91). Here's the tracking (I'll do 77 Kareem later).

Hey guys I did tracking for 74 kareem game 6 finals.

https://youtu.be/vGVumTgLPqM

Offense -
0:24 - Kareem sets screen for Oscar
3:13 - Oscar inbounds ball to Kareem, tipped back to Oscar
3:32 - Kareem wins tipoff for OT
3:39 - Kareem receives ball in left block, to Dandridge who bricks shot. (+DTO) Cowens unable to control offensive rebound, Kareem turnover with 3 sec violation. (Kareem - 1 DTO)
5:20 - Robertson in to Kareem gets doubled, pass back to Roberston, who passes.
6:13 - Kareem looking like he tries to back down Cowens, who fouls him.
7:18 - Cowens boxed out Kareem for rebound
7:50 - Kareem receives ball to be tripled this time, back to Oscar. (+2 DTOs, +1 EDTO) Oscar makes high post shot. (Kareem - 3 DTOs, 1 EDTO, 1 creation)
9:20 - Oscar into Kareem, missed skyhook, draws defender at same time. Putback by someone I couldn't see.
10:05 - Kareem receives ball, Cowens pokes it away, for Kareem to make airballed long jumper.
11:40 - Kareem wins jumpball.
12:16 - Kareem wins tipoff for 2OT.
14:35 - Ball passed to Kareem, gets to pass to Dandridge who is doubled, bricked.
16:08 - Kareem doubled, fake pass. Hits skyhook over Cowens.
17:41 - Kareem receives ball from Oscar as he is doubled, leaving Oscar open, for enough time to move to make high post shot. (Kareem - 4 DTOs, 2 creation)
18:05 - Kareem fouled by Cowens, Cowens ejected out of game.
22:37 - Ball inbounded into Kareem, makes incredible game winning skyhook.

Defense -
1:40 - Kareem deflects ball pass from Havlicek to another Celtic player.
2:22 - JoJo White pass to Cowens on high post, Kareem guarding him. Cowens then heads to the right block for hook missed. (Kareem - 1 PP, 1 EPP)
4:06 - Kareem defends Cowen on outside, passes out.
5:57 - Havlicek drive into Kareem for a missed shot. (Kareem - 2 PP)
7:30 - Kareem on Cowens who passes down.
9:42 - Cowens left open on elbow for missed shot. (Kareem - 1 PPD, 1 IPPD)
10:15 - Kareem rotates on to Silas, possession cut since shot clock error.
11:07 - Kareem grabs defensive board, don't know why there should be jumpball there.
12:04 - Kareem lets Havlicek score uncontested shot after his own rebound. (Kareem - 3 PP, 1 IPP)
13:13 - Kareem on Cowens high post, pass to JoJo White.
13:42 - Kareem back on Cowens in high post, pass to JoJo White again. Back to Cowens, immediate swing to Chaney for bricked shot.
14:53 - Kareem attempt for steal, knocks out of bounds. Turnover.
16:26 - Kareem with late contest, Havlicek scores. (Kareem - 4 PP, 2 IPP)
17:01 - Nice job by Kareem there, Havlicek drawing two, doesn't stop drive. Kareem blocking hook-shot, but turnover again as he steps out of bounds.
17:54 - Kareem doesn't contest Havlicek shot, easy basket. (Kareem - 5 PP, 3 IPP)
21:15 - Would call this tough shot made by Havlicek, Kareem with good contest but Havlicek makes shot (Kareem - 6 PP, 2 EPP)

Final tally -

2 creations
4 DTOs
1 EDTOs

1 PPD
1 IPPD
6 PP
2 EPP
3 IPP

Around 19 possession of play here.

Guys I tracked MJ defense in 1989 cavs game 5.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11bEM1GJzx6CV8ZXo_vZbFnoDMIM_w-7oJ3R8LSGu_AE/edit?usp=drivesdk

Stats:
9 PP
7 IPP

12 PPD
1 EPPD
8 IPPD

[/quote]

Russell- 62 GOAT D. Not much else. Skillset is unimpressive but the impact/winning is hard to ignore.

Duncan- 03 2nd or 3rd best defender OAT. Anchoring historic defenses as early as 1999:

Spoiler:

u]Tally and Analysis[/u]

Paint-Protection - Duncan

-> 28 PPs
-> 11 EPPs
-> 2 IPPs
-> 2 IAs

Perimeter Defense - Duncan

-> 6 PPD
-> 3 EPPDs
-> 1 IPPDs

During Duncan’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 28 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 11 and ineffective in 2. He was also given 6 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally, Duncan was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Duncan averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.275 EPPs, 0.05 IPPs, 0.15 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.

Robinson overhyped. We see Duncan take over as the #1 early:

Spoiler:

Robinson:
-> 17 PPs
-> 8 EPPs
-> 4 IPPs
-> 1 IA


Duncan:
-> 17 PPs
-> 4 EPPs
-> 4 IPPs
-> 0 IAs


During the Spurs’ first 40 defensive possessions, I gave Duncan, 21 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 4. Robinson was given 16 PPs as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 8 and ineffective in 6. Both had an irrational avoidance. When they shared the court Duncan and Robinson had 17 PPs each with Duncan being deemed effective in 4 and Robinson being deemed effective in 8. Both were deemed ineffective in 4. Robinson additionally had 1 IA

Over 37 possessions Duncan averaged .57 PPs, 0.16 EPPs, 0.11 IPPs, and 0.03 IAs.

Over 31 possessions Robinson averaged 0.58 PPs, 0.26 EPPs, 0.13 IPPs. 0.032 IAs.

Underrated PM. Very good scoring. Goes from 23/13/4 on +5rTS to 25/15/5 on +5rTS. Notable rise. Even efficiency is a little better. Great two-way play.

[Special_Puppy]

Don’t know how it’s possible but Jordan somehow became underrated on this board

[One_and_Done]

Don’t know how it’s possible but Jordan somehow became underrated on this board

No, he's still overrated.