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League Circles wrote:Hard to see a human being turning down 150 million guaranteed.
kodo wrote:League Circles wrote:Hard to see a human being turning down 150 million guaranteed.
Kuminga turned down $150M/5 and Brandon Ingram turned down $160M/4, no idea on the guarantees / incentives on either.
Even though Brandon bet on himself and "lost" he didn't lose any annual salary, he's still getting $40M per year just 3 years vs 4.
I don't rate either as being even close to what Giddey did post trade deadline, but I guess that's up to opinion.
kodo wrote:League Circles wrote:Hard to see a human being turning down 150 million guaranteed.
Kuminga turned down $150M/5 and Brandon Ingram turned down $160M/4, no idea on the guarantees / incentives on either.
Even though Brandon bet on himself and "lost" he didn't lose any annual salary, he's still getting $40M per year just 3 years vs 4.
I don't rate either as being even close to what Giddey did post trade deadline, but I guess that's up to opinion.
ThreeYearPlan wrote:Bulls fans defend HomoSapien more than Rose.
HomoSapien wrote:I don't get someone like Kuminga turning down $150m. At this point, your career could go either way. Get the lifetime generational wealth. You'd be like 27 at the end of the deal. Plenty of time to get another huge contract.
MikeDC wrote:kodo wrote:League Circles wrote:Hard to see a human being turning down 150 million guaranteed.
Kuminga turned down $150M/5 and Brandon Ingram turned down $160M/4, no idea on the guarantees / incentives on either.
Even though Brandon bet on himself and "lost" he didn't lose any annual salary, he's still getting $40M per year just 3 years vs 4.
I don't rate either as being even close to what Giddey did post trade deadline, but I guess that's up to opinion.
Given that Ingram is unlikely to make $40m in whatever his year 4 turns out to be, I’d say the list doesn’t need quotes around it.
Kuminga is really gonna have to hope for a lucky break to get that kind of money too. At the very best he’s gotta sweat it.
So, yeah, if I’m Giddey I’m taking the payday.
I’d be pretty shocked if the Bulls wouldn’t offer him a 3 year deal. If Giddey is really sure of himself he can take that and still cover his bases.
What I haven’t completely decided for myself is what I would want if I were the Bulls. I’m not a big fan of Giddey so I set up the pay structure in the offer I made above to incentivize him to maybe take either.
If Giddey does really blow up though, the Bulls should incentivize him to take the longer deal.
Dan Z wrote:MikeDC wrote:kodo wrote:
Kuminga turned down $150M/5 and Brandon Ingram turned down $160M/4, no idea on the guarantees / incentives on either.
Even though Brandon bet on himself and "lost" he didn't lose any annual salary, he's still getting $40M per year just 3 years vs 4.
I don't rate either as being even close to what Giddey did post trade deadline, but I guess that's up to opinion.
Given that Ingram is unlikely to make $40m in whatever his year 4 turns out to be, I’d say the list doesn’t need quotes around it.
Kuminga is really gonna have to hope for a lucky break to get that kind of money too. At the very best he’s gotta sweat it.
So, yeah, if I’m Giddey I’m taking the payday.
I’d be pretty shocked if the Bulls wouldn’t offer him a 3 year deal. If Giddey is really sure of himself he can take that and still cover his bases.
What I haven’t completely decided for myself is what I would want if I were the Bulls. I’m not a big fan of Giddey so I set up the pay structure in the offer I made above to incentivize him to maybe take either.
If Giddey does really blow up though, the Bulls should incentivize him to take the longer deal.
I looked it up and for his career earnings to date Giddey has made 27 million (this doesn't include anything outside of his NBA contracts).
He may want 30 million per year, but if they Bulls refuse and are only willing to pay 25 or even 22 then I think he should take it. Maybe push for a player option the last year or try to add incentives that could make it more if he does well. It's generational wealth and he'll most likely be able to get a 2nd contract when he's still in his 20s.
DrModesty wrote:Dan Z wrote:MikeDC wrote:
Given that Ingram is unlikely to make $40m in whatever his year 4 turns out to be, I’d say the list doesn’t need quotes around it.
Kuminga is really gonna have to hope for a lucky break to get that kind of money too. At the very best he’s gotta sweat it.
So, yeah, if I’m Giddey I’m taking the payday.
I’d be pretty shocked if the Bulls wouldn’t offer him a 3 year deal. If Giddey is really sure of himself he can take that and still cover his bases.
What I haven’t completely decided for myself is what I would want if I were the Bulls. I’m not a big fan of Giddey so I set up the pay structure in the offer I made above to incentivize him to maybe take either.
If Giddey does really blow up though, the Bulls should incentivize him to take the longer deal.
I looked it up and for his career earnings to date Giddey has made 27 million (this doesn't include anything outside of his NBA contracts).
He may want 30 million per year, but if they Bulls refuse and are only willing to pay 25 or even 22 then I think he should take it. Maybe push for a player option the last year or try to add incentives that could make it more if he does well. It's generational wealth and he'll most likely be able to get a 2nd contract when he's still in his 20s.
His earnings outside of his NBA contract are considerable. Obviously not close to the level of the extension he is in line for, but they are very significant.
The reason I say that is because only one of his endorsement deals has ever been made public with regard to funds. It was his Weet-Bix contract which is an Australian Cereal brand under the Sanitarium company. The basic details of the contract came out during his scandal. It was a 4 year contract for $40m AUD, which was the equivalent of $26m USD. The scandal happened when he was earlier in his 3rd year of the contract, and it never came out if he got paid for the last 2 years of it. But those first 2 years were worth $13m USD.
That is one endorsement deal.
He has also had a sponsorship deal with Nike during his rookie contract, and Puma has just signed him in free agency for that market on a new multi year deal. There are also Gatorade, JBL and Cotton On (Cotton On is another Australian company that does clothing) that I can find from a little bit of google searching.
I'd assume (speculatively) that the Weet-Bix deal was the biggest because of the factors at play with a guy like Giddey. By that I mean that Australia is an extremely sports mad country, Weet-Bix is an iconic Australian brand, and Giddey is an athlete that has 'made it' in a globally relevant league/sport. But you would still have to think that the combined value of all his other endorsements are also well in to the millions over the past 4 years.
So just the NBA earnings and the conservative estimation of the Weet-Bix deal (strictly 2 years paid out) takes you to $40m USD. Staying conservative, you can probably assume that the rest of his endorsements combined have been worth a minimum of $5m USD. That would be $45m USD prior to taxes and agent fee's etc.
If Giddey actually got all the money from his Weet-Bix deal, and if his other deals combined just to equal the value of the Weet-Bix endorsement, then his career earnings would actually be in the range of $70m USD in gross income. It is plausible that his other endorsements combine to more than the Weet-Bix deal, but that seems unlikely from my uninformed point of view.
My point is as follows though.
He has made F U money already.
The QO is $11m for 1 year which is pretty much F U money by itself.
Even in a worst case scenario where he takes the QO and is hit with major injury, he would still be in line to earn an of F U level of money in the years after recovering from this hypothetical major injury purely on what he showed before the injury. (See Lonzo Ball signing 2/20 just by showing he was 'playable' again. See Victor Oladipo earning $40m over the years where his career fizzled out to injury)
Calling back to other worst case scenarios in Schroeder and Noel. Noel earnt $14m on his rookie deal, and turned down 4/70. He ended up earning $31m in the rest of his career bringing him to $45m. That is just NBA money. Could he have earnt much more? Yes, clearly. But he is still extremely wealthy and only 31 years old.
Schroeder earnt $70m before he turned down his 4/84. He has earnt $34m in the 5 years since then and now has another $45m guaranteed ahead of him. That will be $150m in just NBA money, at a minimum.
So while logically it makes sense that he should 'secure the bag', if he really feels insulted the consequences of picking up the QO are not that significant. He is already wealthy. He is already famous. He has the capacity to do whatever he wants post basketball career, and he also has the potential to earn plenty more money for the next 50 years of his life even though his earning potential is extremely high in the near future as a player.
Giddey career is also occurring in an era where the cap is spiking from an absurd starting point to what will be an insane ending point. It feels like it would be very unlikely for him to take the qualifying offer, and then not earn a minimum of $30m AFTER that $11m over the duration of his career. As in that feels like a worst case scenario short of an suffering an amputation, or brain damage level of serious injury (by that I mean any true career ender). Add that on to what he has already earnt, plus future endorsement money and you are looking at $100m + in gross earnings. That doesn't account for future investment earnings, or any earnings during post playing decades.
So once again, I get that he should try and maximize his earnings. I get that the low risk, smart play is to secure a 9 figure contract with the Bulls in this deal. But if he truly feels insulted and disrespected, he can choose the nuclear option and come out effectively unscathed even if things go poorly for him. The first 10 million matters a lot more than the second hundred million.
Dan Z wrote:DrModesty wrote:Dan Z wrote:
I looked it up and for his career earnings to date Giddey has made 27 million (this doesn't include anything outside of his NBA contracts).
He may want 30 million per year, but if they Bulls refuse and are only willing to pay 25 or even 22 then I think he should take it. Maybe push for a player option the last year or try to add incentives that could make it more if he does well. It's generational wealth and he'll most likely be able to get a 2nd contract when he's still in his 20s.
His earnings outside of his NBA contract are considerable. Obviously not close to the level of the extension he is in line for, but they are very significant.
The reason I say that is because only one of his endorsement deals has ever been made public with regard to funds. It was his Weet-Bix contract which is an Australian Cereal brand under the Sanitarium company. The basic details of the contract came out during his scandal. It was a 4 year contract for $40m AUD, which was the equivalent of $26m USD. The scandal happened when he was earlier in his 3rd year of the contract, and it never came out if he got paid for the last 2 years of it. But those first 2 years were worth $13m USD.
That is one endorsement deal.
He has also had a sponsorship deal with Nike during his rookie contract, and Puma has just signed him in free agency for that market on a new multi year deal. There are also Gatorade, JBL and Cotton On (Cotton On is another Australian company that does clothing) that I can find from a little bit of google searching.
I'd assume (speculatively) that the Weet-Bix deal was the biggest because of the factors at play with a guy like Giddey. By that I mean that Australia is an extremely sports mad country, Weet-Bix is an iconic Australian brand, and Giddey is an athlete that has 'made it' in a globally relevant league/sport. But you would still have to think that the combined value of all his other endorsements are also well in to the millions over the past 4 years.
So just the NBA earnings and the conservative estimation of the Weet-Bix deal (strictly 2 years paid out) takes you to $40m USD. Staying conservative, you can probably assume that the rest of his endorsements combined have been worth a minimum of $5m USD. That would be $45m USD prior to taxes and agent fee's etc.
If Giddey actually got all the money from his Weet-Bix deal, and if his other deals combined just to equal the value of the Weet-Bix endorsement, then his career earnings would actually be in the range of $70m USD in gross income. It is plausible that his other endorsements combine to more than the Weet-Bix deal, but that seems unlikely from my uninformed point of view.
My point is as follows though.
He has made F U money already.
The QO is $11m for 1 year which is pretty much F U money by itself.
Even in a worst case scenario where he takes the QO and is hit with major injury, he would still be in line to earn an of F U level of money in the years after recovering from this hypothetical major injury purely on what he showed before the injury. (See Lonzo Ball signing 2/20 just by showing he was 'playable' again. See Victor Oladipo earning $40m over the years where his career fizzled out to injury)
Calling back to other worst case scenarios in Schroeder and Noel. Noel earnt $14m on his rookie deal, and turned down 4/70. He ended up earning $31m in the rest of his career bringing him to $45m. That is just NBA money. Could he have earnt much more? Yes, clearly. But he is still extremely wealthy and only 31 years old.
Schroeder earnt $70m before he turned down his 4/84. He has earnt $34m in the 5 years since then and now has another $45m guaranteed ahead of him. That will be $150m in just NBA money, at a minimum.
So while logically it makes sense that he should 'secure the bag', if he really feels insulted the consequences of picking up the QO are not that significant. He is already wealthy. He is already famous. He has the capacity to do whatever he wants post basketball career, and he also has the potential to earn plenty more money for the next 50 years of his life even though his earning potential is extremely high in the near future as a player.
Giddey career is also occurring in an era where the cap is spiking from an absurd starting point to what will be an insane ending point. It feels like it would be very unlikely for him to take the qualifying offer, and then not earn a minimum of $30m AFTER that $11m over the duration of his career. As in that feels like a worst case scenario short of an suffering an amputation, or brain damage level of serious injury (by that I mean any true career ender). Add that on to what he has already earnt, plus future endorsement money and you are looking at $100m + in gross earnings. That doesn't account for future investment earnings, or any earnings during post playing decades.
So once again, I get that he should try and maximize his earnings. I get that the low risk, smart play is to secure a 9 figure contract with the Bulls in this deal. But if he truly feels insulted and disrespected, he can choose the nuclear option and come out effectively unscathed even if things go poorly for him. The first 10 million matters a lot more than the second hundred million.
You also have to keep in mind that the Bulls are currently a great situation for him. That might not be the case with another team.
Giddey can take the QO...I agree with you that he's basically set up for life either way (if he does a good job of investing his money). It's why I think that if the Bulls don't offer him the money he's asking for then he should take a shorter deal or one with a player option (or maybe incentives to increase the deal).
Giddey also has his flaws as a player, so I don't think the Bulls should just cave and give him what he wants. They need to think about the teams future.
DrModesty wrote:Dan Z wrote:DrModesty wrote:
His earnings outside of his NBA contract are considerable. Obviously not close to the level of the extension he is in line for, but they are very significant.
The reason I say that is because only one of his endorsement deals has ever been made public with regard to funds. It was his Weet-Bix contract which is an Australian Cereal brand under the Sanitarium company. The basic details of the contract came out during his scandal. It was a 4 year contract for $40m AUD, which was the equivalent of $26m USD. The scandal happened when he was earlier in his 3rd year of the contract, and it never came out if he got paid for the last 2 years of it. But those first 2 years were worth $13m USD.
That is one endorsement deal.
He has also had a sponsorship deal with Nike during his rookie contract, and Puma has just signed him in free agency for that market on a new multi year deal. There are also Gatorade, JBL and Cotton On (Cotton On is another Australian company that does clothing) that I can find from a little bit of google searching.
I'd assume (speculatively) that the Weet-Bix deal was the biggest because of the factors at play with a guy like Giddey. By that I mean that Australia is an extremely sports mad country, Weet-Bix is an iconic Australian brand, and Giddey is an athlete that has 'made it' in a globally relevant league/sport. But you would still have to think that the combined value of all his other endorsements are also well in to the millions over the past 4 years.
So just the NBA earnings and the conservative estimation of the Weet-Bix deal (strictly 2 years paid out) takes you to $40m USD. Staying conservative, you can probably assume that the rest of his endorsements combined have been worth a minimum of $5m USD. That would be $45m USD prior to taxes and agent fee's etc.
If Giddey actually got all the money from his Weet-Bix deal, and if his other deals combined just to equal the value of the Weet-Bix endorsement, then his career earnings would actually be in the range of $70m USD in gross income. It is plausible that his other endorsements combine to more than the Weet-Bix deal, but that seems unlikely from my uninformed point of view.
My point is as follows though.
He has made F U money already.
The QO is $11m for 1 year which is pretty much F U money by itself.
Even in a worst case scenario where he takes the QO and is hit with major injury, he would still be in line to earn an of F U level of money in the years after recovering from this hypothetical major injury purely on what he showed before the injury. (See Lonzo Ball signing 2/20 just by showing he was 'playable' again. See Victor Oladipo earning $40m over the years where his career fizzled out to injury)
Calling back to other worst case scenarios in Schroeder and Noel. Noel earnt $14m on his rookie deal, and turned down 4/70. He ended up earning $31m in the rest of his career bringing him to $45m. That is just NBA money. Could he have earnt much more? Yes, clearly. But he is still extremely wealthy and only 31 years old.
Schroeder earnt $70m before he turned down his 4/84. He has earnt $34m in the 5 years since then and now has another $45m guaranteed ahead of him. That will be $150m in just NBA money, at a minimum.
So while logically it makes sense that he should 'secure the bag', if he really feels insulted the consequences of picking up the QO are not that significant. He is already wealthy. He is already famous. He has the capacity to do whatever he wants post basketball career, and he also has the potential to earn plenty more money for the next 50 years of his life even though his earning potential is extremely high in the near future as a player.
Giddey career is also occurring in an era where the cap is spiking from an absurd starting point to what will be an insane ending point. It feels like it would be very unlikely for him to take the qualifying offer, and then not earn a minimum of $30m AFTER that $11m over the duration of his career. As in that feels like a worst case scenario short of an suffering an amputation, or brain damage level of serious injury (by that I mean any true career ender). Add that on to what he has already earnt, plus future endorsement money and you are looking at $100m + in gross earnings. That doesn't account for future investment earnings, or any earnings during post playing decades.
So once again, I get that he should try and maximize his earnings. I get that the low risk, smart play is to secure a 9 figure contract with the Bulls in this deal. But if he truly feels insulted and disrespected, he can choose the nuclear option and come out effectively unscathed even if things go poorly for him. The first 10 million matters a lot more than the second hundred million.
You also have to keep in mind that the Bulls are currently a great situation for him. That might not be the case with another team.
Giddey can take the QO...I agree with you that he's basically set up for life either way (if he does a good job of investing his money). It's why I think that if the Bulls don't offer him the money he's asking for then he should take a shorter deal or one with a player option (or maybe incentives to increase the deal).
Giddey also has his flaws as a player, so I don't think the Bulls should just cave and give him what he wants. They need to think about the teams future.
Yeah, the best case for all parties is that they agree on a fair and reasonable deal that both parties are content with and that enables a fruitful partnership ongoing to the future.
On this thread I have clearly stated myself as a Giddey believer, but I have also been open about his flaws too. I think the Bulls are lucky that Giddey is asking for $30m per year. I think it is very likely he ends up a positive value player on that and so while the Bulls are right to make use of their leverage, they should be the ones that move closer to Giddey rather than the other way around.
My experiences in listening to what Giddey has to say over the years makes me believe that he is a very self aware person, understands his own flaws, and understands how the market and his path to this moment is dictating a significant part of the negotiating process. Speculatively I suspect that he believes he is a fringe max player as every time he has been given opportunities in his natural role he has excelled and that asking for $30m is a considerable compromise. That if he had been given the keys to a franchise for the duration of his rookie contract that he would have been snap paid a max like Trae Young among other examples.
Even during his first two years at OKC the general thought was would they have to max him or would they be able to keep slightly below the max because they had 3 other guys to max. He looked like a likely future star, though not a likely All NBA guy, especially given the loaded roster.
During the third year a lot went wrong. He had the scandal. His role went from a 2A to a distinct 3 behind SGA and J-Dub, not even including the Chet component. He was put in a role that emphasizes shooting open 3's and defense which marginalized him (fair or otherwise). This was exasperated in the playoffs, where utilizing him incorrectly (though it was the correct decision for the team) killed his utility and contributed to him being benched. Isaiah Joe came in to the line up, also missed his 3's and played shoddy defense, but the entire team outside of Shai were bricking everything so Daigneault needed to lean to his shooters and hope.
Come to year 4 and he gets to the Bulls. Just like in OKC, his usage/role is hampered by two guards (Lavine and White) and a center that needs touches (Vucevic). Difference being that the Bulls players are far less deserving of prioritization over Giddey than the 3 OKC guys. His defense slumps and he gets benched to close games. That 18 month stretch destroyed his perception and his value.
Then Lavine leaves, and Giddey finally ends up back in a role very similar to his year 2 role as the 2A scorer (Vuc being 2B, Coby being 1) except with even more ball handling responsibility. That is why the recent stretch here he averaged 9 assists instead of what was his typical 7 when he was with Shai and J-Dub during year 2.
Consistently in his time at OKC, when Shai was out he stepped up and produced. 32 games, 17/8/7 and for 13 of those games he was a rookie. And this was before the improved shooting, slightly improved defense, or improved ability to get to the line.
He has played 3 games of significance in what approximates the role that the Bulls want him to have going forward. We all remember the play-in game against the Heat. I would term that as a solid game, where some things went well but the defense was poor, unacceptably so in the first 5 minutes of the game. 25-10-4 on 53% true shooting. You definitely want better on the defensive end, but it shows plenty to work with for a 22 year old. By contrast Coby went 17/2/5 with arguably worse defense, 7 turnovers and 38% true shooting.
The other 2 were 2 play-in games in the 2022/23 season (his year 2). One of them was dreadful, and the other was fantastic. In the first game against New Orleans, Giddey went 31-10-9, hit 3/7 from 3, 11/22 from the field and 6/7 from the line for 62% true shooting. SGA also scored 32 with 3 assists and Dort had 27, so Giddey succeeded in a team context playing like a 1B in that game. The next game was the dreadful one. 6/5/4 on 2/13 shooting for 21% TS. Shai also stunk. He had 22 points but that is flattered by 12/12 from the line and only 5/19 from the field with his cousin locking him down all night long. The Wolves double star frontcourt of KAT and Gobert completely dominated the game (This was the year OKC had no centers outside of rookie J-Will). These games happened when he was 20 years old.
So from Giddeys perspective he was on a star trajectory, circumstances went against him (Scandal + losing his natural role to both an MVP and an All NBA player + coming to Chicago and sacrificing so losing players like Lavine and old Vuc (arguably White too) can get shots), and then returned to a star trajectory when he got used correctly. Also from his perspective, he was on a team that was tanking in his rookie year, to .500 in his second year, to 57 wins in his 3rd year, and then he went to the Bulls and when his team gave him the rock they also exceeded expectations. He knows his shooting has gotten better. That his defense has gotten better. That he is starting to get more free throws. That is why I speculatively suspect he thinks he is worth a max and why I speculatively suspect he would view his $30m demand as already making a significant compromise. It is also why I have my general belief that he is easily worth $30m per year when I look at what other players around the league get paid.
Dan Z wrote:DrModesty wrote:Dan Z wrote:
You also have to keep in mind that the Bulls are currently a great situation for him. That might not be the case with another team.
Giddey can take the QO...I agree with you that he's basically set up for life either way (if he does a good job of investing his money). It's why I think that if the Bulls don't offer him the money he's asking for then he should take a shorter deal or one with a player option (or maybe incentives to increase the deal).
Giddey also has his flaws as a player, so I don't think the Bulls should just cave and give him what he wants. They need to think about the teams future.
Yeah, the best case for all parties is that they agree on a fair and reasonable deal that both parties are content with and that enables a fruitful partnership ongoing to the future.
On this thread I have clearly stated myself as a Giddey believer, but I have also been open about his flaws too. I think the Bulls are lucky that Giddey is asking for $30m per year. I think it is very likely he ends up a positive value player on that and so while the Bulls are right to make use of their leverage, they should be the ones that move closer to Giddey rather than the other way around.
My experiences in listening to what Giddey has to say over the years makes me believe that he is a very self aware person, understands his own flaws, and understands how the market and his path to this moment is dictating a significant part of the negotiating process. Speculatively I suspect that he believes he is a fringe max player as every time he has been given opportunities in his natural role he has excelled and that asking for $30m is a considerable compromise. That if he had been given the keys to a franchise for the duration of his rookie contract that he would have been snap paid a max like Trae Young among other examples.
Even during his first two years at OKC the general thought was would they have to max him or would they be able to keep slightly below the max because they had 3 other guys to max. He looked like a likely future star, though not a likely All NBA guy, especially given the loaded roster.
During the third year a lot went wrong. He had the scandal. His role went from a 2A to a distinct 3 behind SGA and J-Dub, not even including the Chet component. He was put in a role that emphasizes shooting open 3's and defense which marginalized him (fair or otherwise). This was exasperated in the playoffs, where utilizing him incorrectly (though it was the correct decision for the team) killed his utility and contributed to him being benched. Isaiah Joe came in to the line up, also missed his 3's and played shoddy defense, but the entire team outside of Shai were bricking everything so Daigneault needed to lean to his shooters and hope.
Come to year 4 and he gets to the Bulls. Just like in OKC, his usage/role is hampered by two guards (Lavine and White) and a center that needs touches (Vucevic). Difference being that the Bulls players are far less deserving of prioritization over Giddey than the 3 OKC guys. His defense slumps and he gets benched to close games. That 18 month stretch destroyed his perception and his value.
Then Lavine leaves, and Giddey finally ends up back in a role very similar to his year 2 role as the 2A scorer (Vuc being 2B, Coby being 1) except with even more ball handling responsibility. That is why the recent stretch here he averaged 9 assists instead of what was his typical 7 when he was with Shai and J-Dub during year 2.
Consistently in his time at OKC, when Shai was out he stepped up and produced. 32 games, 17/8/7 and for 13 of those games he was a rookie. And this was before the improved shooting, slightly improved defense, or improved ability to get to the line.
He has played 3 games of significance in what approximates the role that the Bulls want him to have going forward. We all remember the play-in game against the Heat. I would term that as a solid game, where some things went well but the defense was poor, unacceptably so in the first 5 minutes of the game. 25-10-4 on 53% true shooting. You definitely want better on the defensive end, but it shows plenty to work with for a 22 year old. By contrast Coby went 17/2/5 with arguably worse defense, 7 turnovers and 38% true shooting.
The other 2 were 2 play-in games in the 2022/23 season (his year 2). One of them was dreadful, and the other was fantastic. In the first game against New Orleans, Giddey went 31-10-9, hit 3/7 from 3, 11/22 from the field and 6/7 from the line for 62% true shooting. SGA also scored 32 with 3 assists and Dort had 27, so Giddey succeeded in a team context playing like a 1B in that game. The next game was the dreadful one. 6/5/4 on 2/13 shooting for 21% TS. Shai also stunk. He had 22 points but that is flattered by 12/12 from the line and only 5/19 from the field with his cousin locking him down all night long. The Wolves double star frontcourt of KAT and Gobert completely dominated the game (This was the year OKC had no centers outside of rookie J-Will). These games happened when he was 20 years old.
So from Giddeys perspective he was on a star trajectory, circumstances went against him (Scandal + losing his natural role to both an MVP and an All NBA player + coming to Chicago and sacrificing so losing players like Lavine and old Vuc (arguably White too) can get shots), and then returned to a star trajectory when he got used correctly. Also from his perspective, he was on a team that was tanking in his rookie year, to .500 in his second year, to 57 wins in his 3rd year, and then he went to the Bulls and when his team gave him the rock they also exceeded expectations. He knows his shooting has gotten better. That his defense has gotten better. That he is starting to get more free throws. That is why I speculatively suspect he thinks he is worth a max and why I speculatively suspect he would view his $30m demand as already making a significant compromise. It is also why I have my general belief that he is easily worth $30m per year when I look at what other players around the league get paid.
I bet you're right that he thinks he's worth the max, but many players feel that way (even one's who clearly don't deserve it). Right now I'm not sure if the market is that great for Giddey. If he tried to get another team to offer him 30 million per year who would give him that?
The Bulls traded for him when he had a down year and was dealing with controversy. Then they traded LaVine and gave him room to show what he can do. When he re-signs he'll be able to build on that.
Will he get 30 million per year? Who knows, but like I said the Bulls shouldn't cave and just give him whatever he wants. It's a business and they have to think about the teams future too.
Dan Z wrote:Dez wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:Imagine an offer for $30 mill actually comes in from another team. Don't say it can't happen. Bulls can do one of two things:
1. Let Giddey go to the other team.
2. Call Giddey, say "We know we've been saying you weren't worth $30 mill for weeks, and we made you go find it from another team you had a great meeting with in a horrible market, but we lied. We think you're worth it and you can't go there. Here. Hope you're happy. No hard feelings. At least we offered you $22 mill."
"Now go lead the team and put up All-Stars stats with All-Star defense. Because that's a $22-$30 mill player."
Number 2 makes no sense, every player knows that negotiations are about getting the best possible deal and that's true for team and player.
It's a business. If Giddey doesn't understand that then that's on him.
dougthonus wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:Do I really to compile the long list of players who took contract offers personally? I could start with Scottie Pippen and how his contract affected him. The list would be entirely too long.
Do you need to make a list of people that had long contract negotiations and then never worried about it again? Pippen is a terrible example because he begged for the deal he took, and we told him not to take it because we wouldn't renegotiate it. It wasn't a contentious contract negotiation. Beyond that, Pippen has more or less been shown to be pissed about everything in life for his whole life.
For someone who says they have negotiated a lot of contracts, your negotiation style seems to be bend over and give in to 100% of what the other side wants without even making an attempt.Is there no difference in terms of performance between a motivated, happy, I feel appreciated Giddey, and a resentful Giddey who felt like he signed because he had no other real options? Are we better off with a player we had to force to stay here, or a guy we could have offered the same money to and he'd have been extremely happy? Is there any question in you guys minds the Bulls would match an offer up to $30 mill? Do you think Giddey doesn't believe that right now?
You really think Giddey is just going to play a ton better if we pay him 30M instead of 22M? Maybe we should give Pat Williams another 12M and see if he improves.
Dez wrote:Dan Z wrote:Dez wrote:
Number 2 makes no sense, every player knows that negotiations are about getting the best possible deal and that's true for team and player.
It's a business. If Giddey doesn't understand that then that's on him.
That's what I'm saying, both players and teams know this.
Nobody is going to get their feelings hurt because they didn't get what they wanted immediately.
dougthonus wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:That's an absolute lie. Bend over and give in vs offering maybe 40% of what the client is looking for is so far from the same thing, it's ridiculous.
You have been in an utter panic since FA started because we have not given Giddey 30M already, which is 100% of what he is asking for.
40% of 30M is 12M. The quote is that KC thinks we're not quite at 25M which means we're likely between 75%-80% of what he is asking for, and that seems quite normal.I specifically pointed out percentages and margins of difference for exactly that reason. I'm not even saying we should offer him $30 mill right now, lmao!!! Like you keep exaggerating what I'm saying.
All your math is based on your opinion one side is being more reasonable than the other, because you have said you would give Giddey the max if necessary, so your basis points for all your math is based on a premise that no one else in the league except you believes about Giddey's worth.You want to make fun of my negotiating, you tell me in your experience how many contracts go thru when the parties are 40%-50% different in value assessment? How many houses are listed at $300k, and the seller is ok with taking $160k?
I mean literally do some math, because that's not even close to what is happening, but if someone puts their house on the market for 300k and literally no one in the world but one person can pay over 150k, then the odds of that person getting 300k are pretty low.I'm going to make this statement very clear. Try to twist it if you can. I don't know what the Bulls value Giddey at. If the Bulls are willing to match up to $30 mill, then IMO they believe he's worth $30 mill. I think it's disingenuous and bad business to start at $22 mill if you believe he's worth $30 mill. I believe heartily in saving money, all my cars I bought at auction and my home in a short sale. I'm a deal hunter. Let's say I hadn't ever negotiated a damn thing. in my personal opinion, I believe starting that far apart from what you believe e a player's true value is bad business.
In a world where you had the exact extremes both sides would take (ie most Bulls would pay and least Giddey would take), the odds are those ranges overlap at more than one exact point. They might overlap by 5M dollars. Why should one side meet the other at the absolute maximum of their acceptable range rather than in the middle of both parties acceptable ranges?Imagine this. Giddey comes in asking for $35 mill. It's actually not that unreasonable, and may be what happened who knows? The team thinks he's worth $30 mill. Do they still start at $22 mill? Probably not. They start at $25 mill to get to $30 mill, which they feel is fair market value.
Every argument you have made could be reversed in favor of the other side and be similarly valid, because the core piece of your argument is really not about negotiation at all but your underlying belief that Giddey is worth dramatically more than most people.
Stratmaster wrote:Dez wrote:Dan Z wrote:
It's a business. If Giddey doesn't understand that then that's on him.
That's what I'm saying, both players and teams know this.
Nobody is going to get their feelings hurt because they didn't get what they wanted immediately.
Respectfully Dez, this is really naive. It just goes against human nature. Have you ever felt underpaid or disrespected in a job? If you did, you hopefully didn't cut off your nose to spite your face. You took the best deal you could get and immediately started plotting how and when you could get out of there.
League Circles wrote:kodo wrote:League Circles wrote:Hard to see a human being turning down 150 million guaranteed.
Kuminga turned down $150M/5 and Brandon Ingram turned down $160M/4, no idea on the guarantees / incentives on either.
Even though Brandon bet on himself and "lost" he didn't lose any annual salary, he's still getting $40M per year just 3 years vs 4.
I don't rate either as being even close to what Giddey did post trade deadline, but I guess that's up to opinion.
I'm unaware, when did these guys turn down these deals? I'm saying relative to playing on the QO, in real time. Like what's the most a guy has ever turned down to play on the QO?