The Consiglieri wrote:tontoz wrote:Tyrone Messby wrote:Would yall say the top 3 in 2026 are arguably more promising than the Flagg, Harper, Bailey trio?
Too early to say. From what little I've seen AJ is over hyped. Peterson and Ament look legit. Boozer looks like a high floor but low ceiling player.
I think Boozer's ceiling is pretty good, it just kind of pales in comparison to how freakishly good Peterson, Ament and Dybantsa could be if they continue to improve. It may just be a matter of semantics, but I tend to think Boozer at worst, is a damn good big/stretch 4 type, but not like a top 5 player in the NBA level talent, I can't see that happens, very good, maybe great, but not top 5 in the league at his apex, I think the other 3 could hit that. Dybantsa's issues are the scariest because if he doesn't get the defense piece down, he'll never be great and he might not be very good, he'll just be super high end on offense. We'll see.
The big difference to me between the two classes is the ceilings of 3 of the top 4 in '26 to me are higher than all of the '25 guys except maybe Harper, whose right there with them.
If they were all in the same class, w/no knowledge of how '24-'25 in college played out, so just as high school prospects I'd probably rank them:
1.Flagg
2.Peterson
3.Dybantsa
4.Bailey
5.Ament (ceiling higher than Boozer)
6. Boozer
7. Harper
8.Edgecombe
Taking the college season of '24-'25 into account and then sliding in high school '26 group, I think it would look like:
1.Flagg
2.Peterson
3.Harper
4.Dybantsa
5.Ament
6.Edgecombe
7.Boozer
8.Bailey
Interestingly, as I continue to backpedal aggressively from my draft night melt down, I think Tre probably slides into 8 now. Maybe 7. I've learned enough from national scouts and evaluators from draft night to walk back some of my fears about his ceiling, I still need to see the Defense and interior game develop, but there are more than enough people unbelievably high on him as an offensive weapon with the ability to play up the weaknesses given time, for me to buy him as the #3 or #4 prospect in the draft, rather than the #6 or #7 area I had on him because of those fears.
Anyway, looking back at '25 and '26, I think what makes Ament different, again, is the upside volatility play, his ceiling is probably as high as any player of both classes, but the likelihood that he maxes versus say a Flagg, Harper, maybe Peterson, and Boozer is a total unknown. I know Boozer at worst is going to be good to very good. I don't know the answer to that with Ament, but I know the raw size/length, ability to potentially play 2-4 positions....super, super exciting. Dybantsa, and Peterson and Boozer are all much more clear in what they are and will be if they hit, Ament has a ton greater range of outcomes and possibilities and even positions.
You keep leaving out Alijah Arenas, which I think is a mistake..... He reclassed late, and went from 3rd in his 25' class to 12 in 26' class... But don't sleep on him... Ever since he was in that accident he's been overlooked, but he fortunately came out of it unscathed, so I think you need to consider him as well....
Also I think you are highly undervaluing Ace Bailey.... When he outshines most of this class, just remember how easy it was to see he was the most talented, and wasn't the headcase as he was portrayed..... He just wanted to come to DC..... We should be proud of that, but it's being held against him......
