jayjaysee wrote:DrModesty wrote:jayjaysee wrote:No reason to delay this trade through the regular season if Giannis demands out.
Make it Newell and Kobe instead of Luke. Make it Risacher if needed. Figure out the fifth starter later using part of the TPE..
Good feedback. Adding Newell and Kobe instead of Kennard, plus a lightly protected (top 4) distant Hawks pick might be a more likely end point when push comes to shove.
I think OO/Giannis/Risachar/NAW/Trae with KP, Luke and vet mins is worth it.
That team can win the title next year. NAW/Zac is all you really need between Giannis and Trae and their salaries make it affordable for a few years. Similar with OO..
Think you just add the 2027 first (worse of Atl/SAS) if you’re also adding Newell.. But I’m way too high on him considering he dropped so far. But getting the pick debt out of the way while Giannis is under team control is obviously a nice benefit for Atlanta.
Yeah, I agree that the Hawks would be genuinely live to win the title with that squad. Obviously things need to break right, but that is the case for any team. The fit of the role players is very nice around those 2 and the stars themselves have nice compliments to each other.
I am going to dump a bunch of extra thoughts here instead of making an additional post.
From my perspective the Bucks are in an unusual circumstance for what would represent an ideal returning package. Normally the idea is just get the single best young player you can. But that is because usually you would tank to build around them, and also trade your other vets to buttress the rebuild. The Bucks can't do this, so getting a package that shirks volume in exchange for a true premium young talent like Mobley or Amen Thompson (depending how you view him) would leave you with one excellent young player that you can't effectively build around. In my opinion they need to come out of this with 3+ effective young components and then trimmings.
The Atlanta return provides 2 actualized young starters who are improving. That is 2 of your 3+. The 2026 best of is the third. Newell adds an intriguing non premium prospect with a full 4 years of rookie control. That is good trimmings. So is an extra future first round pick. I don't hold out too much hope for Bufkin, but it is a welcome swing none the less.
Additionally, the 2026 class is the right one to have 2 high potential picks in. First of all, it has numerous players viewed as potential franchise changers. Secondly, it is in the near future which affords Bucks fans hope of both a truncated rebuilding process and more immediate infusions of exciting new talent. Add in the lesser 2027 NOP/MIL pick and an additional pick and the Bucks would have a good chance at stabilizing and progressing considering how overextended they are currently. Even a prudent projection (for example 2026 #7, 2026 #10 (MIL already owns this), 2027 #10) added to Johnson, Daniels and Newell would give a deep and intriguing core. But the top end is Darryn Peterson or AJ Dybantsa who
could be the next great Buck. 2026 draft picks would also get paid when Lillard's dead cap ends which is advantageous.
I feel that San Antonio has gotten deceptively weaker in its ability to offer quality at volume. Harper is surely high value at this moment. Castle is also high value, but definitely a step down compared to Harper. I doubt SAS can make a deal without including Carter Bryant, but I'd rather have Daniels than him personally. I like Sochan, but I don't love Sochan. Him vs Newell is probably fairly equivalent value taking in to account contracts. But what has really hurt SAS is the prospective value of their picks. Dallas 2030 doesn't look so hot with Flagg heading that way. The Atlanta picks seem less valuable given their savvy front office work and internal development over the past 18 months. Their own picks are not high value
especially if they get Giannis. I'd probably view the best of NOP/MIL pick that Atlanta can offer as similar value to the 3 or maybe 4 best picks San Antonio can offer. Honestly, that might fall short too. So if I was dealing with the Spurs, I'd want to be getting Harper
and Castle with Carter Bryant plus numerous picks. I think San Antonio might balk at this.
Houston it is a bit different. They do have a few strong upside picks with 2027 Nets, 2027 Phoenix and 2029 best of Dal/Hou/Phx. But none of these are as good as the 2026 best of that Atlanta can offer. The 2027 draft is also an additional year in the future which stalls out the recovery efforts. I am not familiar with how 2027 projects at this stage, but 2026
is highly touted for talent and depth. And 2027 gives enough time for teams like Brooklyn and Phoenix to fortify their positions. Brooklyns 5 rookies would be in year 3 and could be turning in to positive impact players. On top of that they have immense draft equity still in the chest, and project to have cap space. They could trade for, and sign vets and become a competitive team by then. Phoenix also looks in dire straights right now, but that is still a murky outcome. If Maluach hits, and Booker stays it is not hard to construct a coherent and competitive roster around those two plus Brooks. Not a contending roster, but one that strips their picks of significant value.
Houston also has other questions with their offers. Sengun is a very good player. But how good is he really? By that I mean is he leading you to future contention if you are building around him with a restricted asset base? The Sengun/Turner fit is interesting in a way because of Turner's ability to stretch. But he isn't the cerebral player that Steven Adams is, not does he warp games like Adams does on the glass. The Rockets also were in a position to use that double big line up as an alternative. The Bucks would
need Turner and Sengun to work together. Turner and Sabonis didn't work well and that seems like a very apt comparison. Turner just got paid so I doubt he can be flipped for significant positive value, though better fitting players would be a distinct possibility. Also, is Sengun conclusively going to be better than Jalen Johnson? It feels likely, but not certain.
Amen is potentially a monster. But that means his value is very high which imparts risk to him as a centerpiece of the return. This is because his flaws as a shooter could capstone him to a player of similar quality to prime Ben Simmons (Very good player to be fair), but his inclusion will enable Houston to hardball on additional compensation. I like Sheppard, but he is a more valuable asset than his NBA play represents at this stage. Eason is nice, but has had some concerning injuries and seems like a complimentary player only. Jabari is also nice, but limited as an offensive player and had his starting position usurped last season.
The other side of this for Houston is that by investing in a KD trade, following up with a Giannis trade that strips them of the majority of their young core would actually put their long term window in serious jeopardy. KD, Giannis, Adams, Capela, DFS, FVV are all older players. Next season KD will be 37, Giannis turns 31 in December, Adams will be 32 and is a health risk. Capela also 32 and seemingly falling away. FVV 31 and very small. DFS will be 33 and isn't a sure thing as a long term contributor. If the package for Giannis included Sengun, Shepperd and Eason plus some picks then the young players remaining would be Amen and Jabari. Amen is a poor fit with Giannis. Jabari feels like he has a complimentary skill set, but is plays the same natural position as Giannis. It may be cannier to make a series of patient and calculated moves over the next few years for Houston than make a swing on the mighty Giannis Antetokounmpo.
