Mavs/Celtics

[Djh7475]

A simple 1-for-1 swap of:
Celtics Out/Mavs In: Pritchard
Mavs Out/Celtics In: Lively

Celtics desperately need a playable center. Targeting one with a couple of years left on his rookie deal who could provide a potential long term answer at the position makes a lot of sense. While his inability to shoot isn’t ideal in Mazulla’s system, he fits perfectly on the other end. His injury issues thus far have made him risky, but that is the only reason I think he’d be available for this type of deal.

Mavs desperately need an offensive initiator, floor spacer, and scorer with Kyrie out. Pritchard has always excelled in the games where the Celtics were without one or more of their stars, and he’s obviously not too shabby coming off the bench as the reigning 6MOTY.

Pritchard is the perfect Kyrie fill-in short term, and he’s locked up for 3 years at under $8M per. He’d be a core rotation piece at a position of need, and could potentially make Kyrie expendable if Flagg’s offensive game runs a little ahead of schedule (or if Pritchard finally gets unleashed as a more featured option).

[daoneandonly]

Not even close for Dallas. Gafford is closer in value to Pritchard

[Darren]

Obviously, no for Dallas. Another Pritchard could be found as 2nd round pick or undrafted rookie. But player like DLive will not be available outside of Lottery. This is highway robbery for Boston. Being able to stick with Wemby and Chet is a must to win anything. That's why Houston stocks with centers. I should say quality big will get higher draft boards for years to come. This is not a joke at all.

[Texas Chuck]

had Dallas not gotten Russell, this probably is at least worth consideration. But Pritchard isn't a meaningfully more impactful player than Russell. And he's not really a PG, just PG sized.

[brackdan70]

Lively has a bit more trade value than Pritchard imo, but it’s not a huge difference. Maybe a pick swap or a 2nd.
Age and upside favors Lively
Current production and contract favors Pritchard.

[brackdan70]

had Dallas not gotten Russell, this probably is at least worth consideration. But Pritchard isn't a meaningfully more impactful player than Russell. And he's not really a PG, just PG sized.

Why do you say he isn’t a PG?
That’s been his role primarily since he’s been in the league. He is a great shooter and moves well without the ball as well, he he definitely has PG skills

[Godaddycurse]

had Dallas not gotten Russell, this probably is at least worth consideration. But Pritchard isn't a meaningfully more impactful player than Russell. And he's not really a PG, just PG sized.

Why do you say he isn’t a PG?
That’s been his role primarily since he’s been in the league. He is a great shooter and moves well without the ball as well, he he definitely has PG skills

You just described a SG..

[hugepatsfan]

A starting center is worth more than a maybe starting small guard.

I think Pritchard is going to be seen as much more valuable trade chip this time next year though. I don’t mean that in comparison to Lively, I mean compared to how he himself is viewed now. Everyone Boston has starters out and he plays more he kills it. I think there’s this perception of him that he thrives in a limited role but I think he scales up better than he gets credit for.

Lively’s development seemed stagnant last year (though injuries played a part). If that happens again, my guess is that this is a solid no in the other direction next year. But right now I can’t see anyone cashing out on Lively for Pritchard.

[Mavrelous]

I like Pritchard, but he's an MLE level player, Lively looked like a legit defensive anchor in his 1st year, he has been very injury prone in his short career, but no reason the Mavs give up on him this quickly, definitely not for this package.

[BK_2020]

Pritchard's gonna look really different once he stops getting 7 open/wide open assisted 3PA per game.

[brackdan70]

had Dallas not gotten Russell, this probably is at least worth consideration. But Pritchard isn't a meaningfully more impactful player than Russell. And he's not really a PG, just PG sized.

Why do you say he isn’t a PG?
That’s been his role primarily since he’s been in the league. He is a great shooter and moves well without the ball as well, he he definitely has PG skills

You just described a SG..

Lol. Context of the whole paragraph. Just because a guy can shoot well, he can’t be a PG?

[BK_2020]

Why do you say he isn’t a PG?
That’s been his role primarily since he’s been in the league. He is a great shooter and moves well without the ball as well, he he definitely has PG skills

You just described a SG..

Lol. Context of the whole paragraph. Just because a guy can shoot well, he can’t be a PG?

Thing is Pritchard has never shown lead guard skills. No vision, no passing skills, doesn't score off the bounce. When you ask him to dribble 90% of the time he will run the clock down and throw the safest pass. He's like a short Jaylen Brown in terms of his playmaking ability.

[brackdan70]

You just described a SG..

Lol. Context of the whole paragraph. Just because a guy can shoot well, he can’t be a PG?

Thing is Pritchard has never shown lead guard skills. No vision, no passing skills, doesn't score off the bounce. When you ask him to dribble 90% of the time he will run the clock down and throw the safest pass. He's like a short Jaylen Brown in terms of his playmaking ability.

We must be wearing different colored glasses.

[hugepatsfan]

Pritchard's gonna look really different once he stops getting 7 open/wide open assisted 3PA per game.

In 10 games without Tatum last year he averaged 19.0/5.3/5.0.

In 20 games without Jrue next year he averaged 16.9/4.9/4.6.

In 6 games without White last year he averaged 18.8/5.2/5.0

In 19 games without Brown he averaged 16.4/4.2/3.7.

Numbers don't include percentages which obviously matter of course. Unfortunately I couldn't find good data that filters like that, just google searches.

Last year he played 80 games. In 5 he played 10-19 minutes, 1 game with 40+. Throw those out as outliers. He played 41 with 20-29 minutes and 33 with 30-39, so a relatively close split.

In the 20-29 minute games he was 12.0/3.1/2.9 on 46.0%/40.6% splits and in the 30-39 minute games he was on 48.5%/40.6% shooting splits 17.6/4.8.4.5. Anecdotally, I'd imagine that the games where other guys were out were more the ones where he was playing 30-39 minutes, and games with those guys out I think represent more the offensive role he'll be taking on this year. I think the numbers show he's scaled up relatively well when asked too.

I think we've seen through history many examples of players who crater when their role is expanded but then also guys who do thrive in it. From what I've seen so far, I truly think Pritchard is more the latter than the former. I'm not suggesting he is going to be an all star or anything, but I think he could have an 18/5/5 type season on lesser but still good efficiency. And while he's also going to have defensive issues on the switch against wings, I think he's made himself into an actually solid defender against other guards and teams do less matchup hunting in the regular season. Should Boston make the playoffs, he'll look like he turned back into a pumpkin but I expect the defensive metrics will paint him neutral/favorable even in a bigger regular season role.

Your point in a later post about him not being a "point guard" are true. He's more of a safe play/easy pass for an assist guy than true playmaker. I think those warts will show. I don't think anyone is going to come out of next year saying he's some stud offensively. But I do expect next year to show that he's good enough to be a high-ish volume scorer on good efficiency playing heavy minutes and someone that a team, if they have a point forward or a SG with size that runs the offense, can look at Pritchard as someone good enough to start and play 30 minutes a game, similar to a Fred Van Vleet type of player (who did make 1 all star game but had underwhelming stats for it so it shouldn't be seen as saying he's a true all star caliber player).

[BK_2020]

Pritchard's gonna look really different once he stops getting 7 open/wide open assisted 3PA per game.

In 10 games without Tatum last year he averaged 19.0/5.3/5.0.

In 20 games without Jrue next year he averaged 16.9/4.9/4.6.

In 6 games without White last year he averaged 18.8/5.2/5.0

In 19 games without Brown he averaged 16.4/4.2/3.7.

Numbers don't include percentages which obviously matter of course. Unfortunately I couldn't find good data that filters like that, just google searches.

Last year he played 80 games. In 5 he played 10-19 minutes, 1 game with 40+. Throw those out as outliers. He played 41 with 20-29 minutes and 33 with 30-39, so a relatively close split.

In the 20-29 minute games he was 12.0/3.1/2.9 on 46.0%/40.6% splits and in the 30-39 minute games he was on 48.5%/40.6% shooting splits 17.6/4.8.4.5. Anecdotally, I'd imagine that the games where other guys were out were more the ones where he was playing 30-39 minutes, and games with those guys out I think represent more the offensive role he'll be taking on this year. I think the numbers show he's scaled up relatively well when asked too.

I think we've seen through history many examples of players who crater when their role is expanded but then also guys who do thrive in it. From what I've seen so far, I truly think Pritchard is more the latter than the former. I'm not suggesting he is going to be an all star or anything, but I think he could have an 18/5/5 type season on lesser but still good efficiency. And while he's also going to have defensive issues on the switch against wings, I think he's made himself into an actually solid defender against other guards and teams do less matchup hunting in the regular season. Should Boston make the playoffs, he'll look like he turned back into a pumpkin but I expect the defensive metrics will paint him neutral/favorable even in a bigger regular season role.

Your point in a later post about him not being a "point guard" are true. He's more of a safe play/easy pass for an assist guy than true playmaker. I think those warts will show. I don't think anyone is going to come out of next year saying he's some stud offensively. But I do expect next year to show that he's good enough to be a high-ish volume scorer on good efficiency playing heavy minutes and someone that a team, if they have a point forward or a SG with size that runs the offense, can look at Pritchard as someone good enough to start and play 30 minutes a game, similar to a Fred Van Vleet type of player (who did make 1 all star game but had underwhelming stats for it so it shouldn't be seen as saying he's a true all star caliber player).

Maybe but it could also be that his offensive load is already close to maxed out. In 24-25, he was at 13.8 3PA per 100. I just don't see a path to improving that volume. It's already more than Duncan Robinson who is a superior shooter and 6'8, almost as high as prime Klay and Steph. The 3P volume is likely to fall not rise without Tatum, KP, Jrue, and Horford, as is his 3P%, and it's not like he's gonna make up for that loss of 3P volume by scoring from the midrange or attacking the rim.