Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[dougthonus]

I think that's right. I think he's a very high BBIQ guy and his improvements will come from creating space through recognition of opportunities and craftiness, which he has. I think he's stronger than he's given credit for and has an elite sense of where the ball is going for rebounds. The wildcard is whether he can continue to be an above average 3pt shooter.

I think that is all correct, except I'll add, he's a WAY below average shooter. People look at percentage, but they do not look at the impact of his shooting. He passes up even wide open shots regularly. People do not guard him at the three point line frequently. His release speed is incredibly slow. He cannot shoot step backs, side steps, off the dribble effectively. Shooting is much more than percentage. His higher percentage is still only a moderately efficient shot.

What creates pressure on the defense is being able to do all these other things as a weapon that create gravity / options, he doesn't do any of that today.

I don't say this all as some huge knock on Giddey as much as I say it that his shooting is much further away than his percentage would indicate this year in terms of how it impacts the game.

If Giddey were to become as good a shooter as Coby White (whom had a lower percentage last year), he might be a max player. Coby does all of the above things I mentioned, shoots quickly, off the dribble, on step backs, and uses his shooting as a weapon. He's not an elite shooter, because he can't do those things at super high percentages, but he's a very good shooter.

[drosestruts]

I think that's right. I think he's a very high BBIQ guy and his improvements will come from creating space through recognition of opportunities and craftiness, which he has. I think he's stronger than he's given credit for and has an elite sense of where the ball is going for rebounds. The wildcard is whether he can continue to be an above average 3pt shooter.

I think that is all correct, except I'll add, he's a WAY below average shooter. People look at percentage, but they do not look at the impact of his shooting. He passes up even wide open shots regularly. People do not guard him at the three point line frequently. His release speed is incredibly slow. He cannot shoot step backs, side steps, off the dribble effectively. Shooting is much more than percentage. His higher percentage is still only a moderately efficient shot.

What creates pressure on the defense is being able to do all these other things as a weapon that create gravity / options, he doesn't do any of that today.

I don't say this all as some huge knock on Giddey as much as I say it that his shooting is much further away than his percentage would indicate this year in terms of how it impacts the game.

If Giddey were to become as good a shooter as Coby White (whom had a lower percentage last year), he might be a max player. Coby does all of the above things I mentioned, shoots quickly, off the dribble, on step backs, and uses his shooting as a weapon. He's not an elite shooter, because he can't do those things at super high percentages, but he's a very good shooter.

Giddey went from 3 made off the dribble 3's to 18 (over the past two season) - certainly low volume, but an improvement. Believe he shot like 36% on them.

It's a clear area where improvement would make a HUGE difference in his value.

Do you pay a 22 year old with flaws in his game 25-30 million a year? It would appear that in today's NBA that answer is yes.

A step-back off the dribble 3 at his size would be killer if he were to ever develop it.

Ideally it doesn't become a go to move as I do really like his rim pressure, and his late season free-throw rate was great too.

[dougthonus]

Giddey went from 3 made off the dribble 3's to 18 (over the past two season) - certainly low volume, but an improvement. Believe he shot like 36% on them.

It's a clear area where improvement would make a HUGE difference in his value.

Do you pay a 22 year old with flaws in his game 25-30 million a year? It would appear that in today's NBA that answer is yes.

A step-back off the dribble 3 at his size would be killer if he were to ever develop it.

Ideally it doesn't become a go to move as I do really like his rim pressure, and his late season free-throw rate was great too.

I think for him it would primarily be about developing options. I don't have a lot of trust in him really being a rim attacker on a consistent basis, he did a lot of that at the end of the year against generally really, really bad defenses on teams trying to lose, but if he develops an off the dribble or side step three as an option that is moderately dangerous, then the versatility plus his IQ will probably make up for some of the athletic shortcomings.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I think what will actually get us mad when we realize the 26 plan was all fake news.

That even if we "save" money on Giddey or anyone else, we will just be using that money on the same level players and while not getting any stars.

[Jcool0]

I think what will actually get us mad when we realize the 26 plan was all fake news.

That even if we "save" money on Giddey or anyone else, we will just be using that money on the same level players and while not getting any stars.

That's on anyone that was expecting otherwise. No one will be signing big FA's so not sure why anyone thought the Bulls would and the Bulls have no assets to trade for a "star". Probably why AK came out with the 9-10 good players comment.

[Stratmaster]

It's not naive at all, these are negotiations where you try to get the best deal for you possible, both players and teams know this.

There's no argument you could make that Giddey is being disrespected. He was promoted and featured heavily as being a future core guy for this franchise, something he wasn't getting at OKC due to the talent they possessed. He got the role he wanted on this team that forced him to leave OKC.

You (we all did) complained about the deal that Williams got and now we have AKME finally not negotiating like a potato and actually using the leverage he has and you're not happy?

I'm a Giddey fan and believe in his ability but he gave us half a season of excellent play, there's a fair right to try not to give him 30M at this point in time.

It is naive to think contract negotiations are emotionless. None of what you said has anything to do with that.

"Not paying him 30 mil" is also very different than offering him 22 mil.

And you say he is being featured as the future core guy. But you expect to pay him like a super-sub.

Where did I say they were emotionless? I said nobody gets their feelings hurt just because they instantly didn't get what they wanted.

Again they are negotiating, you can't be critical of this when you have been the most vocal about the Williams contract and how bad it is. I also never said he should be getting 22M, I'm fine with him getting 25-27M per year or 30M declining over the deal.

I haven't been the "most vocal" about the Williams contract. I may have been the most vocal about how much he sucks. My issue was that they didn't unload him before the new contract. I would have been unhappy with him at 1 million a year.

Also, as I said in another post, everyone has to stop using the Williams contract as a basis for justifying low-balling Josh Giddey. It is apples and oranges. Giving 18 mil to Williams because they thought it would "incentivize him to play better" is asinine. Williams has never shown any ability to positively impact a basketball team.

By your logic, if the Bulls had a chance to sign prime LeBron James they should start by low-balling him because they overpaid Patrick Williams.

But it appears we have no reason to debate as you are fine with anywhere in the 25-30m a year, which is exactly what I have been saying since the discussion started. Since we, all the experts and 75% of the fan-base all agree that is the number, and know that is where this will end up, why would the Bulls start closer to 20 million? Just to piss him off, drag this out, and show what great negotiators they are?

You know the best negotiating tactic? "Let's cut to the chase and not insult each other. Here is 25 mil a year. Oh, you want 30? OK, we want to put some pieces alongside you and really feel the top number is 27 mil AAV. We will front load it and give you a player option on year 5. So 32 mil year 1, 29 mil year 2, 27 mil year 3, 25 mil year 4, 22 mil year 5. If you over-perform you can opt out of year 5, and you will have averaged 28.25 mil per season for the first 4 years. But don't worry, if you over-perform we will be talking to you about an extension in year 4 anyway".

[Stratmaster]

I think that's right. I think he's a very high BBIQ guy and his improvements will come from creating space through recognition of opportunities and craftiness, which he has. I think he's stronger than he's given credit for and has an elite sense of where the ball is going for rebounds. The wildcard is whether he can continue to be an above average 3pt shooter.

I think that is all correct, except I'll add, he's a WAY below average shooter. People look at percentage, but they do not look at the impact of his shooting. He passes up even wide open shots regularly. People do not guard him at the three point line frequently. His release speed is incredibly slow. He cannot shoot step backs, side steps, off the dribble effectively. Shooting is much more than percentage. His higher percentage is still only a moderately efficient shot.

What creates pressure on the defense is being able to do all these other things as a weapon that create gravity / options, he doesn't do any of that today.

I don't say this all as some huge knock on Giddey as much as I say it that his shooting is much further away than his percentage would indicate this year in terms of how it impacts the game.

If Giddey were to become as good a shooter as Coby White (whom had a lower percentage last year), he might be a max player. Coby does all of the above things I mentioned, shoots quickly, off the dribble, on step backs, and uses his shooting as a weapon. He's not an elite shooter, because he can't do those things at super high percentages, but he's a very good shooter.

IDK. I think your eye test may not be the thing to look at. Feb/Mar/Apr Giddey was putting up about 15 shots per game, plus about 3 trips to the line. So he was shooting on 17-18 possessions a game. If he is passing up all the shots you think he is....I guess we need to talk about how often you want Giddey, who is your top facilitator/assist guy, shooting each game. It's not like the percentages he put up were on low volume.

I mean, sure. We all wish he was a better 3 point shooter. But with what else he brings, I will take 38% on 5 attempts per 36 all day long. He needs some better 3 point shooting around him.

[MGB8]

So in light of that, this is more how I see Giddey as a potential fraction of a top 8 ("contender") type team in next years dollars:

Tax level: 188 million. So let's say 190 million - just slightly into the tax.

Cap is at 155 million.

A 30 mil AAV deal for Giddey with 8% raises would start at under 26 mil next year.

Let's say the team also had a 35% max guy and two other guys also better than Giddey making say 32 mil each. The 35% max guy makes 54 mil.

Those 4 guys add up to 144 mil. This leaves 46 mil for the 5th through 14th guys on the roster (15 man rosters are insane IMO if you're in the tax).

#5 guy: 17 mil
#6-#8 guys: 7 mil each
#9-#14 guys: 1.3 mil each (yes, bare league minimum and absolutely fine with it)

Yes that's thinner than what most nba teams have but IMO it's by far the smartest route especially if you don't have a true superstar and need to win with a great unit.

I just see a build like this (even with an overpaid 35% max guy, not a true superstar) as being much, much more plausible and therefore appealing that trying to do a "deep rebuild" or similar conventional strategies.

The tricky part of my vision is that the top 4-5 guys need to complement each other extremely well. I think if we're careful we can do that. The next obvious step is a high quality C that actually complements our other protected core guys.

I think that team would be very poor as a contender, because you now have 3 guys in sub max but greater than MLE range which I find to generally be the very bad contract range, and you'd have really, really bad depth. To say your 9-14 guys are all undrafted rookies is pretty crazy.

I’m more optimistic on Giddey than you are - though I understand the concerns. Still, I think a lot of what we saw at the end of the season, sans the elite 3 pt percentage, is sustainable. Lots of different on-ball creation for self and others, floaters and such, and taking and hitting open s aggressively and at an a good clip - an “average” shooter rather than a below average one. And on defense, assuming he’s mostly (primary) defending 3s, some 4s, some slower 2s, I think that his non-liability, occasionally better than that defensive performances can be sustained, too.

If that turns out right, and the efficiency stays high end (not quite what was in the final 3 months, sort of half between high and low, at a TS 59-60)… and but but the volume stays close where it was (20/9/9) … even without some sort of explosive improvement in shooting, that production coupled with the impact his passing has on others, puts Giddey at something like the 3rd or even 2nd best player on a contending (if not necessarily championship) team.

If that is the case, the team wins on even a 30M AAV, and wins pretty big on something around the 25M range.

Of course, if that doesn’t happen (and it’s far from guaranteed)… And that’s the rub.

As for mid contracts… I don’t think you can focus on size alone. It’s just relative value. Jarret Allen at 20 M is an amazing deal for Cleveland. So is Aaron Gordon at 23 (for Denver). Both not so much re the 2 pending extensions that push them both up over 10 M more. Cam Johnson at 22. Dillon Brooks at 20. Miles bridges at 23.5 or so.

The problem with a lot of the mid tier deals is that the increased value over much lower paid players probably isn’t justified. OKC got their ring, but 20 M AAV for Caruso vs a Keinrich Williams on their team getting 7 M or Aaron Wiggins getting 8.5…. Or DiVincenzo at 12. And he is probably a bad example given non-quantitative impact. So many of the mid contracts are hard to justify. If you miss and production slips to minimum level (a la Patrick), it hurts a lot.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I think what will actually get us mad when we realize the 26 plan was all fake news.

That even if we "save" money on Giddey or anyone else, we will just be using that money on the same level players and while not getting any stars.

That's on anyone that was expecting otherwise. No one will be signing big FA's so not sure why anyone thought the Bulls would and the Bulls have no assets to trade for a "star". Probably why AK came out with the 9-10 good players comment.

The issue is AK keeps selling dreams like its real. But smart fans know its not.

We have an amazing franchise and amazing fanbase. But we are the B team.

Mind you 90% of NBA franchises are also B teams at getting free agents but its besides the point.

We get the big names only past their prime. We shoot for Lebron, but have to settle with Boozer. Its basically always the second tier guys.

Even if you look at the 2026 free agents, who are we actually trying to get? There is absolutely no one there that we have a chance with. Even then, there isn't anyone there that is going to change your franchise around. Signing a 41 year old LeBron would be a Bulls thing to do.

So its all a ruse.

In reality, at this point, whether you pay Giddey, 20 mil, or 35 mil, it wont make any difference in terms of the Bulls stance or standings.

[MrSparkle]

I’m gonna go back on record and say that this hard-balling Giddey into late July or August is completely stupid, and I don’t know how it’ll end up, but it’s going to bite them in the ass at some point.

Facts:

1. Giddey is our best player now and for atleast the foreseeable future, unless Matas emerges now. Either-way, he compliments Matas and has a 3Y buffer of salary extension time.

2. The FO is bickering over $5-10M salary. This is reminding me of the Lauri negotiations, except they have made it very clear they want Giddey, whereas the deadline moves suggested strongly Lauri’s replaceable. They also put themselves in a bind by trading for him as an expiring RFA in a foreseeably dead cap year (2-3 teams with space, and a lot more FAs to go around). Yes, leverage, but in this league, agents and solid players usually get what they want, or they leave and take the hit (ala Schroder), so Bulls are running high risk.

3. Those $5-10M have been burned on multiple inconsequential DNP/3rd-string scrubs like Tre, Jevon, Jalen, Okoro… keeping Terry on… not to mention Pat’s huge salary. Maybe one of these guys pans into a starter (Okoro at best), but I doubt it. Over $60M total for this cast of characters.

This FO is horrible. I wasn’t clamoring for making Giddey our #1, but AKME got themselves in this corner, and they think they’re being clever, but this is going to backfire. Just my feeling.

Let him go, and we’re back to having one of the most boring, predictable and constipated offenses in the league. Resign him to asking price and he will be overpaid. If he agrees to the $20M deal, I’m just not sensing he’ll be too happy, and it’ll probably be a short-term settlement.

To do this to Giddey after a solid season, but not with Patrick after a terrible season (and 3Y in general), is just so nonsensical. I can’t make any sense of this org. It seems like AK is going out his way to make clever moves with high risk and low ceiling, with some vision of a FIBA team that can’t compete at the NBA playoff level. His 12-man roster concept is a joke because his re-re-re-extended head coach likes stubbornly playing 7 guys in playoff games (EDIT: PLAY-IN games ).

I like some of the players and ideas, but let’s be honest. He has had ammo to work with. It’s not THAT hard to tread the mill in the NBA. In fact, it’s about the easiest thing. He could’ve slept on the job for 5Y and probably (most definitely) had a better W-L record, for the simple fact that Lauri ended up being the best player of the lot, and NBAdraft.net could’ve done a better drafting job (let alone having those Franz/Jett slots).

[Infinity2152]

Meanwhile, in NBA news, Tra Young is looking at a 4yr/$229 mill extension. Let's compare that to Giddey at $30 mill, lmao! Worse defender than Giddey, targeted most games. Worse rebounder. Better shooter than Giddey, but Young is career 35%. Before people say, "But volume!", the max player he's most compared to, shoots more threes/gm at 42% career.

So, Giddey at $30 mill or Tra Young at nearly $60 mill. Today's NBA. Every big name player is getting extended. Teams are not being nearly as cheap as advertised, when they have options to spend money.

[League Circles]

Meanwhile, in NBA news, Tra Young is looking at a 4yr/$229 mill extension. Let's compare that to Giddey at $30 mill, lmao! Worse defender than Giddey, targeted most games. Worse rebounder. Better shooter than Giddey, but Young is career 35%. Before people say, "But volume!", the max player he's most compared to, shoots more threes/gm at 42% career.

So, Giddey at $30 mill or Tra Young at nearly $60 mill. Today's NBA. Every big name player is getting extended. Teams are not being nearly as cheap as advertised, when they have options to spend money.

I'd easily take Giddey over Tre Young for the same money. Young sucks. One day the people around the league who don't yet know that will learn. But a terrible deal for Young shouldn't affect Giddey. The only thing the Bulls should be concerned with is what players on contending teams get paid.

[League Circles]

I think that's right. I think he's a very high BBIQ guy and his improvements will come from creating space through recognition of opportunities and craftiness, which he has. I think he's stronger than he's given credit for and has an elite sense of where the ball is going for rebounds. The wildcard is whether he can continue to be an above average 3pt shooter.

I think that is all correct, except I'll add, he's a WAY below average shooter. People look at percentage, but they do not look at the impact of his shooting. He passes up even wide open shots regularly. People do not guard him at the three point line frequently. His release speed is incredibly slow. He cannot shoot step backs, side steps, off the dribble effectively. Shooting is much more than percentage. His higher percentage is still only a moderately efficient shot.

What creates pressure on the defense is being able to do all these other things as a weapon that create gravity / options, he doesn't do any of that today.

I don't say this all as some huge knock on Giddey as much as I say it that his shooting is much further away than his percentage would indicate this year in terms of how it impacts the game.

If Giddey were to become as good a shooter as Coby White (whom had a lower percentage last year), he might be a max player. Coby does all of the above things I mentioned, shoots quickly, off the dribble, on step backs, and uses his shooting as a weapon. He's not an elite shooter, because he can't do those things at super high percentages, but he's a very good shooter.

IDK. I think your eye test may not be the thing to look at. Feb/Mar/Apr Giddey was putting up about 15 shots per game, plus about 3 trips to the line. So he was shooting on 17-18 possessions a game. If he is passing up all the shots you think he is....I guess we need to talk about how often you want Giddey, who is your top facilitator/assist guy, shooting each game. It's not like the percentages he put up were on low volume.

I mean, sure. We all wish he was a better 3 point shooter. But with what else he brings, I will take 38% on 5 attempts per 36 all day long. He needs some better 3 point shooting around him.

It's not necessarily that we want Giddey to shoot more, it's just an observation that he passes up open shots that better shooters wouldn't pass up. He does this probably because he knows that because he's such a limited shooter, a lot of open shots for him still aren't great shots. So it's good in the sense that he knows his limitations, but it's still a limitation.

[HomoSapien]

Read on Twitter

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Gulf of Mexico.

[dougthonus]

IDK. I think your eye test may not be the thing to look at. Feb/Mar/Apr Giddey was putting up about 15 shots per game, plus about 3 trips to the line. So he was shooting on 17-18 possessions a game. If he is passing up all the shots you think he is....I guess we need to talk about how often you want Giddey, who is your top facilitator/assist guy, shooting each game. It's not like the percentages he put up were on low volume.

I mean, sure. We all wish he was a better 3 point shooter. But with what else he brings, I will take 38% on 5 attempts per 36 all day long. He needs some better 3 point shooting around him.

It's not the attempts or the percentage, its the reaction of the defense that will matter.

[dougthonus]

I think that is all correct, except I'll add, he's a WAY below average shooter. People look at percentage, but they do not look at the impact of his shooting. He passes up even wide open shots regularly. People do not guard him at the three point line frequently. His release speed is incredibly slow. He cannot shoot step backs, side steps, off the dribble effectively. Shooting is much more than percentage. His higher percentage is still only a moderately efficient shot.

What creates pressure on the defense is being able to do all these other things as a weapon that create gravity / options, he doesn't do any of that today.

I don't say this all as some huge knock on Giddey as much as I say it that his shooting is much further away than his percentage would indicate this year in terms of how it impacts the game.

If Giddey were to become as good a shooter as Coby White (whom had a lower percentage last year), he might be a max player. Coby does all of the above things I mentioned, shoots quickly, off the dribble, on step backs, and uses his shooting as a weapon. He's not an elite shooter, because he can't do those things at super high percentages, but he's a very good shooter.

IDK. I think your eye test may not be the thing to look at. Feb/Mar/Apr Giddey was putting up about 15 shots per game, plus about 3 trips to the line. So he was shooting on 17-18 possessions a game. If he is passing up all the shots you think he is....I guess we need to talk about how often you want Giddey, who is your top facilitator/assist guy, shooting each game. It's not like the percentages he put up were on low volume.

I mean, sure. We all wish he was a better 3 point shooter. But with what else he brings, I will take 38% on 5 attempts per 36 all day long. He needs some better 3 point shooting around him.

It's not necessarily that we want Giddey to shoot more, it's just an observation that he passes up open shots that better shooters wouldn't pass up. He does this probably because he knows that because he's such a limited shooter, a lot of open shots for him still aren't great shots. So it's good in the sense that he knows his limitations, but it's still a limitation.

Maybe another way to look at it is if Giddey were a good shooter, the numbers might be the same, but the impact would be totally different. Guys would be guarding him way out at the line hard all the time, and you would have much better spacing for everyone else.

[MisterRoy]

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Gulf of Mexico.

If this is true, our front office is inept. Holy smokes.

They overvalue the wrong players (PWill) and undervalue the right ones (Giddey).

[Stratmaster]

I think that is all correct, except I'll add, he's a WAY below average shooter. People look at percentage, but they do not look at the impact of his shooting. He passes up even wide open shots regularly. People do not guard him at the three point line frequently. His release speed is incredibly slow. He cannot shoot step backs, side steps, off the dribble effectively. Shooting is much more than percentage. His higher percentage is still only a moderately efficient shot.

What creates pressure on the defense is being able to do all these other things as a weapon that create gravity / options, he doesn't do any of that today.

I don't say this all as some huge knock on Giddey as much as I say it that his shooting is much further away than his percentage would indicate this year in terms of how it impacts the game.

If Giddey were to become as good a shooter as Coby White (whom had a lower percentage last year), he might be a max player. Coby does all of the above things I mentioned, shoots quickly, off the dribble, on step backs, and uses his shooting as a weapon. He's not an elite shooter, because he can't do those things at super high percentages, but he's a very good shooter.

IDK. I think your eye test may not be the thing to look at. Feb/Mar/Apr Giddey was putting up about 15 shots per game, plus about 3 trips to the line. So he was shooting on 17-18 possessions a game. If he is passing up all the shots you think he is....I guess we need to talk about how often you want Giddey, who is your top facilitator/assist guy, shooting each game. It's not like the percentages he put up were on low volume.

I mean, sure. We all wish he was a better 3 point shooter. But with what else he brings, I will take 38% on 5 attempts per 36 all day long. He needs some better 3 point shooting around him.

It's not necessarily that we want Giddey to shoot more, it's just an observation that he passes up open shots that better shooters wouldn't pass up. He does this probably because he knows that because he's such a limited shooter, a lot of open shots for him still aren't great shots. So it's good in the sense that he knows his limitations, but it's still a limitation.

Well if he is scoring efficiently, and taking the volume off shots he should, and getting 9 assists, isn't he taking the right shots?

It seems to me it all comes back to us wanting him to be a better 3 point shooter and threat. I get that. But 5 to 6 attempts a game at 37%... those aren't horrible numbers. If he can maintain that consistently I don't see it as a liability. Especially since the Bulls (somewhat stupid) plan is to play as fast as possible. That reduces the number of possessions where other defenses can set up and then "ignore" Giddey and sag on everyone else.

[ghostinthepost1]

It feels like KC's report a day or two ago about how talks have been constructive and both sides feel like they'll make a deal soon was leaked by the Bulls to calm fans.

And today's report that Giddey wants 30 but the Bulls will only offer 20 was leaked by Giddey's side to put pressure on the Bulls to get a deal done.

[MGB8]

IDK. I think your eye test may not be the thing to look at. Feb/Mar/Apr Giddey was putting up about 15 shots per game, plus about 3 trips to the line. So he was shooting on 17-18 possessions a game. If he is passing up all the shots you think he is....I guess we need to talk about how often you want Giddey, who is your top facilitator/assist guy, shooting each game. It's not like the percentages he put up were on low volume.

I mean, sure. We all wish he was a better 3 point shooter. But with what else he brings, I will take 38% on 5 attempts per 36 all day long. He needs some better 3 point shooting around him.

It's not necessarily that we want Giddey to shoot more, it's just an observation that he passes up open shots that better shooters wouldn't pass up. He does this probably because he knows that because he's such a limited shooter, a lot of open shots for him still aren't great shots. So it's good in the sense that he knows his limitations, but it's still a limitation.

Maybe another way to look at it is if Giddey were a good shooter, the numbers might be the same, but the impact would be totally different. Guys would be guarding him way out at the line hard all the time, and you would have much better spacing for everyone else.

Team TS was up in March and April (was average in Feb). Not sure that Giddey needs to improve *that* much to make sure defenses don’t sag. He was getting driving lanes fine, too, suggesting not that much sag. He was taking close to 5 3PA per game and hitting them at a pretty insane clip. While I don’t expect that over 50% rate to be maintained, if he is hitting in the high 30s, higher if left less/unguarded out there, I don’t think teams are going to just say “oh, we’ll live with that and see if he can increase the volume of the same shots to 8 at that percentage.”