Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[Infinity2152]

Meanwhile, in NBA news, Tra Young is looking at a 4yr/$229 mill extension. Let's compare that to Giddey at $30 mill, lmao! Worse defender than Giddey, targeted most games. Worse rebounder. Better shooter than Giddey, but Young is career 35%. Before people say, "But volume!", the max player he's most compared to, shoots more threes/gm at 42% career.

So, Giddey at $30 mill or Tra Young at nearly $60 mill. Today's NBA. Every big name player is getting extended. Teams are not being nearly as cheap as advertised, when they have options to spend money.

I'd easily take Giddey over Tre Young for the same money. Young sucks. One day the people around the league who don't yet know that will learn. But a terrible deal for Young shouldn't affect Giddey. The only thing the Bulls should be concerned with is what players on contending teams get paid.

More of an example of what players like Giddey get in today's market. We can be fine having all super value/low risk contract players, but don't think you'll ever build a team that way. 30 teams competing, it's inevitable that other teams will value the same player you're looking at.

People can be fine losing Giddey for $30 mill. That's up to them. Find a better replacement for that $30 mill and it's all good. That "better" player will likely have flaws and could regress, like people are saying about Giddey, lol. That could happen to any player. Less likely with 22 years olds than 28 year olds, though.

Notice when I said Tra Young could get that massive extension, the assumption is he'll get it, or some team will massively pay him in FA. Regardless of what anybody thinks of him as far as leading a team to championship, flawed scorers get paid. Think I'd rather have Giddey than Tra Young at the same price, forget double. Personally.

[MGB8]

Doug, while there is still some awkwardness, I do think your concerns about the 3 are deeper than what is actually called for (see below example):

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Also, look at about 7:30 minutes in on the below - re something changing

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[League Circles]

IDK. I think your eye test may not be the thing to look at. Feb/Mar/Apr Giddey was putting up about 15 shots per game, plus about 3 trips to the line. So he was shooting on 17-18 possessions a game. If he is passing up all the shots you think he is....I guess we need to talk about how often you want Giddey, who is your top facilitator/assist guy, shooting each game. It's not like the percentages he put up were on low volume.

I mean, sure. We all wish he was a better 3 point shooter. But with what else he brings, I will take 38% on 5 attempts per 36 all day long. He needs some better 3 point shooting around him.

It's not necessarily that we want Giddey to shoot more, it's just an observation that he passes up open shots that better shooters wouldn't pass up. He does this probably because he knows that because he's such a limited shooter, a lot of open shots for him still aren't great shots. So it's good in the sense that he knows his limitations, but it's still a limitation.

Well if he is scoring efficiently, and taking the volume off shots he should, and getting 9 assists, isn't he taking the right shots?

It seems to me it all comes back to us wanting him to be a better 3 point shooter and threat. I get that. But 5 to 6 attempts a game at 37%... those aren't horrible numbers. If he can maintain that consistently I don't see it as a liability. Especially since the Bulls (somewhat stupid) plan is to play as fast as possible. That reduces the number of possessions where other defenses can set up and then "ignore" Giddey and sag on everyone else.

He does take smart shots, which is a good thing. Just not as good of a thing as taking smart shots AND actually being a good shooter.

To Doug's point, shooting numbers are often quite misleading. Keep in mind that even a 38% three point shooter is only hitting about league average TS% on those shots - the benefit is usually in the spacing, but that's pretty obviously not created by Giddey. In fairness to Giddey, a significant part of why defenders play off of him is due to his great passing - playing a bit further off makes it easier to defend against passes.

Personally I'm more concerned with his defense than his shooting, but those are two big areas that explain why the Bulls are offering him less than 2/3 of a max salary. If defenders hounded him closer, I suspect he'd rarely ever even shoot threes at all, cause due to his Joakim-Noah-like ultra slow release, he just couldn't get the shot off cleanly at decent percentages. I'm still pretty high on him despite these criticisms, but again to Doug's point, a guy like Coby is obviously a MUCH better shooter than Giddey, despite the numbers. Obvious to anyone watching. Not comparing them overall as players. I think they're roughly equal and that reasonable minds can differ on who is currently better, but reasonable minds can't differ on who is a better shooter. Same with a guy like Kevin Huerter. I'd even call Patrick a better shooter from three point range. But I'm glad Giddey is doing a better job knocking down those open threes, because if he continues to improve and look less like Noah with his form, defenses will respect him more and more and play him tighter. This will likely decrease his efficiency and shor attempts, but increase his assists and team offensive performance.

[Jello Biafra]

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Gulf of Mexico.

If this is true, our front office is inept. Holy smokes.

They overvalue the wrong players (PWill) and undervalue the right ones (Giddey).

Deals get done at deadlines. Nobody has offered Giddey a contract other than the Bulls so he doesn't have any leverage right now. Therefore there is no deadline or pressure for either party to get a deal done until 1) Some other team offers him a contract or 2) Camp starts and he has to make a decision to take the qualifying offer or the Bulls offer.

This thing will likely play out until training camp if no other team steps up. If no other team gives him an offer, he'll have no leverage and likely make a deal with the Bulls rather than sign the Q.O. because he'd be leaving between 10 and 15 million (depending on whose reporting you believe) on the table for 25-26. That's a lot more than Portis or Butler left. Also, it's been reported by KC that Giddey had lunch with Billy Donovan in Las Vegas so I really don't trust this report.

[Infinity2152]

If Giddey is a league average shooter and league average defender (guarding players his size), but elite passer, rebounder, runs the offense at elite level, consistently 20 point scorer on good TS%, is that a great player or not?

And would anybody really be mad if he ends up with $26-$28 mill? That appears to be the range this is heading, imo.

[boozapalooza]

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Gulf of Mexico.

If this is true, our front office is inept. Holy smokes.

They overvalue the wrong players (PWill) and undervalue the right ones (Giddey).

Not really, its a negotiation and seems easy from here. Giddey wants $30M. We start off offering $20M. It drags on a while and we meet in the middle at $25M.

3/75 or 4/100 with a PO is my guess on where this lands. Both sides should be happy.

[League Circles]

If Giddey is a league average shooter and league average defender (guarding players his size), but elite passer, rebounder, runs the offense at elite level, consistently 20 point scorer on good TS%, is that a great player or not?

And would anybody really be mad if he ends up with $26-$28 mill? That appears to be the range this is heading, imo.

If he were a league average shooter and defender for players his size with those other traits, yes he'd be a great player. But it's very unlikely he'll ever be a league average shooter or defender for guys his size. I mean, we're an average team at best at the moment and among guys about his size, he's easily the worst defender among them. The worst shooter too, IMO. Or about tied with Dalen. I'll be generous and say he's a better shooter than Dalen. Of course Dalen is a way better defender, just like Patrick, Phillips, Matas and Essengue. I also consider Huerter a better defender by a decent amount and he's about the same size. Doesn't mean Giddey is some atrocious, Trae Young level defender. It's just that the average 6'-8" guy is better.

I'd be very happy with a 26-28 mil AAV range.

[Jcool0]

If Giddey is a league average shooter and league average defender (guarding players his size), but elite passer, rebounder, runs the offense at elite level, consistently 20 point scorer on good TS%, is that a great player or not?

And would anybody really be mad if he ends up with $26-$28 mill? That appears to be the range this is heading, imo.

If he were a league average shooter and defender for players his size with those other traits, yes he'd be a great player. But it's very unlikely he'll ever be a league average shooter or defender for guys his size. I mean, we're an average team at best at the moment and among guys about his size, he's easily the worst defender among them. The worst shooter too, IMO. Or about tied with Dalen. I'll be generous and say he's a better shooter than Dalen. Of course Dalen is a way better defender, just like Patrick, Phillips, Matas and Essengue. I also consider Huerter a better defender by a decent amount and he's about the same size. Doesn't mean Giddey is some atrocious, Trae Young level defender. It's just that the average 6'-8" guy is better.

I'd be very happy with a 26-28 mil AAV range.

Giddey is better at anything you could possibly post then Dalen.

[Infinity2152]

If Giddey is a league average shooter and league average defender (guarding players his size), but elite passer, rebounder, runs the offense at elite level, consistently 20 point scorer on good TS%, is that a great player or not?

And would anybody really be mad if he ends up with $26-$28 mill? That appears to be the range this is heading, imo.

If he were a league average shooter and defender for players his size with those other traits, yes he'd be a great player. But it's very unlikely he'll ever be a league average shooter or defender for guys his size. I mean, we're an average team at best at the moment and among guys about his size, he's easily the worst defender among them. The worst shooter too, IMO. Or about tied with Dalen. I'll be generous and say he's a better shooter than Dalen. Of course Dalen is a way better defender, just like Patrick, Phillips, Matas and Essengue. I also consider Huerter a better defender by a decent amount and he's about the same size. Doesn't mean Giddey is some atrocious, Trae Young level defender. It's just that the average 6'-8" guy is better.

I'd be very happy with a 26-28 mil AAV range.

I'd consider most of the guys on the team around his size as good defenders, actually guys looked at more for their defense than offense (Williams, Phillips, Terry, Noa). Matas looks to be above average defender too. Definitely wouldn't consider Huerter better. Giddey has better DPBM, defensive win shares, block rate%, defensive rebound %, steal rate about the same, and Giddey's only 22. Giddey's been better by almost every metric.

Not the worst shooter, Terry and Phillips have shot worse, and Noa likely shoots worse than Giddey next year. None of them outshot Giddey last year from 3, including Matas and Pat. That's for the entire season, not just the second half, where he really killed them. Assumption is Giddey seriously regresses, but he's been getting better every year. Don't think it implausible he could get better and do what he's already done before. At least NBA average.

Lott of talk about how Giddey's 3's don't really count, because of how he gets them. He averaged 6.1 attempts a game last year, he keeps that percentage up or even close, don't really care if it's because guys are leaving him open. He hits 36%+ of his threes, anybody can call him a bad shooter all they want, Bulls still get the points. They tighten up on him, he gets more assists.

Average SF defensive rating last year: 115.7. Giddey 113. That's the position I'd compare 6'8 guys to. He looks better defensively than to start the season already. Are you factoring no improvement at all in either area?

[League Circles]

If Giddey is a league average shooter and league average defender (guarding players his size), but elite passer, rebounder, runs the offense at elite level, consistently 20 point scorer on good TS%, is that a great player or not?

And would anybody really be mad if he ends up with $26-$28 mill? That appears to be the range this is heading, imo.

If he were a league average shooter and defender for players his size with those other traits, yes he'd be a great player. But it's very unlikely he'll ever be a league average shooter or defender for guys his size. I mean, we're an average team at best at the moment and among guys about his size, he's easily the worst defender among them. The worst shooter too, IMO. Or about tied with Dalen. I'll be generous and say he's a better shooter than Dalen. Of course Dalen is a way better defender, just like Patrick, Phillips, Matas and Essengue. I also consider Huerter a better defender by a decent amount and he's about the same size. Doesn't mean Giddey is some atrocious, Trae Young level defender. It's just that the average 6'-8" guy is better.

I'd be very happy with a 26-28 mil AAV range.

Giddey is better at anything you could possibly post then Dalen.

I mean, Dalen is WILDLY better at defense, which is exactly half the game.

[GoBlue72391]

I think that's right. I think he's a very high BBIQ guy and his improvements will come from creating space through recognition of opportunities and craftiness, which he has. I think he's stronger than he's given credit for and has an elite sense of where the ball is going for rebounds. The wildcard is whether he can continue to be an above average 3pt shooter.

I think that is all correct, except I'll add, he's a WAY below average shooter. People look at percentage, but they do not look at the impact of his shooting. He passes up even wide open shots regularly. People do not guard him at the three point line frequently. His release speed is incredibly slow. He cannot shoot step backs, side steps, off the dribble effectively. Shooting is much more than percentage. His higher percentage is still only a moderately efficient shot.

What creates pressure on the defense is being able to do all these other things as a weapon that create gravity / options, he doesn't do any of that today.

I don't say this all as some huge knock on Giddey as much as I say it that his shooting is much further away than his percentage would indicate this year in terms of how it impacts the game.

If Giddey were to become as good a shooter as Coby White (whom had a lower percentage last year), he might be a max player. Coby does all of the above things I mentioned, shoots quickly, off the dribble, on step backs, and uses his shooting as a weapon. He's not an elite shooter, because he can't do those things at super high percentages, but he's a very good shooter.

You'd think people would learn this after Patrick Williams, but I guess not.

Not all 38% 3-point shooters are equal.

[Red8911]

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Gulf of Mexico.

* America

[Jcool0]

If he were a league average shooter and defender for players his size with those other traits, yes he'd be a great player. But it's very unlikely he'll ever be a league average shooter or defender for guys his size. I mean, we're an average team at best at the moment and among guys about his size, he's easily the worst defender among them. The worst shooter too, IMO. Or about tied with Dalen. I'll be generous and say he's a better shooter than Dalen. Of course Dalen is a way better defender, just like Patrick, Phillips, Matas and Essengue. I also consider Huerter a better defender by a decent amount and he's about the same size. Doesn't mean Giddey is some atrocious, Trae Young level defender. It's just that the average 6'-8" guy is better.

I'd be very happy with a 26-28 mil AAV range.

Giddey is better at anything you could possibly post then Dalen.

I mean, Dalen is WILDLY better at defense, which is exactly half the game.

It would have to be true which it isnt.

[Infinity2152]

If he were a league average shooter and defender for players his size with those other traits, yes he'd be a great player. But it's very unlikely he'll ever be a league average shooter or defender for guys his size. I mean, we're an average team at best at the moment and among guys about his size, he's easily the worst defender among them. The worst shooter too, IMO. Or about tied with Dalen. I'll be generous and say he's a better shooter than Dalen. Of course Dalen is a way better defender, just like Patrick, Phillips, Matas and Essengue. I also consider Huerter a better defender by a decent amount and he's about the same size. Doesn't mean Giddey is some atrocious, Trae Young level defender. It's just that the average 6'-8" guy is better.

I'd be very happy with a 26-28 mil AAV range.

Giddey is better at anything you could possibly post then Dalen.

I mean, Dalen is WILDLY better at defense, which is exactly half the game.

Dalen Terry's defensive impact doesn't look any better. Like at all. can you use any numbers to support that?

Defensive Rating Giddey last year 113 to Terry 116.
Block rate Giddey 1.8% to Terry 1.3%.
Defensive BPM Giddey 1.1 to Terry .2.
Steal rate Giddey 1.9% to Terry 2.1%
Defensive rebound rate Giddey 21.4% to Terry 9%

By almost every defensive metric you can use Giddey was better defensively last year than Terry. First year on the team. Certainly Terry wasn't wildly better.

[GoBlue72391]

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Gulf of Mexico.

If this is true, our front office is inept. Holy smokes.

They overvalue the wrong players (PWill) and undervalue the right ones (Giddey).

I actually think it's one of the few smart things they've done. Actually negotiate instead of just backing up the Brinks truck on day 1 for no reason. Maybe AKME actually learned a lesson?

Giddey has no leverage and for such an enigmatic player, why wouldn't you try to get him as cheaply as possible? Mitigate the damage if he regresses back to his former self or have a value contract if this is the real him.

I do absolutely agree with the statement that they over/undervalue the wrong guys, and that dates back from the beginning of their tenure.

[League Circles]

If Giddey is a league average shooter and league average defender (guarding players his size), but elite passer, rebounder, runs the offense at elite level, consistently 20 point scorer on good TS%, is that a great player or not?

And would anybody really be mad if he ends up with $26-$28 mill? That appears to be the range this is heading, imo.

If he were a league average shooter and defender for players his size with those other traits, yes he'd be a great player. But it's very unlikely he'll ever be a league average shooter or defender for guys his size. I mean, we're an average team at best at the moment and among guys about his size, he's easily the worst defender among them. The worst shooter too, IMO. Or about tied with Dalen. I'll be generous and say he's a better shooter than Dalen. Of course Dalen is a way better defender, just like Patrick, Phillips, Matas and Essengue. I also consider Huerter a better defender by a decent amount and he's about the same size. Doesn't mean Giddey is some atrocious, Trae Young level defender. It's just that the average 6'-8" guy is better.

I'd be very happy with a 26-28 mil AAV range.

I'd consider most of the guys on the team around his size as good defenders, actually guys looked at more for their defense than offense (Williams, Phillips, Terry, Noa). Matas looks to be above average defender too. Definitely wouldn't consider Huerter better. Giddey has better DPBM, defensive win shares, block rate%, defensive rebound %, steal rate about the same, and Giddey's only 22. Giddey's been better by almost every metric.

Not the worst shooter, Terry and Phillips have shot worse, and Noa likely shoots worse than Giddey next year. None of them outshot Giddey last year from 3, including Matas and Pat. That's for the entire season, not just the second half, where he really killed them. Assumption is Giddey seriously regresses, but he's been getting better every year. Don't think it implausible he could get better and do what he's already done before. At least NBA average.

Lott of talk about how Giddey's 3's don't really count, because of how he gets them. He averaged 6.1 attempts a game last year, he keeps that percentage up or even close, don't really care if it's because guys are leaving him open. He hits 36%+ of his threes, anybody can call him a bad shooter all they want, Bulls still get the points. They tighten up on him, he gets more assists.

Average SF defensive rating last year: 115.7. Giddey 113. That's the position I'd compare 6'8 guys to. He looks better defensively than to start the season already. Are you factoring no improvement at all in either area?

I don't think simple stats even start to tell the story of how good a shooter a guy is. I'll refer you to Doug's explanations. I also judge defense by the eye test. I think those manufactured metrics are all pretty much garbage, though if backed into a corner and they fit my narrative I might use them as support from time to time lol.

I expect Giddey to become an average regular season defender at some point if he's not already. Regular season defense is a lot more about consistent effort (which I expect Josh to provide) than skill and ability. But in the playoffs where opposing coaches are scheming to exploit guys more, and everyone is giving full effort, I think Giddey will always be a poor defender based on his obvious lateral quickness limitations. In terms of team planning I only care about playoff projections. I'm high on Giddey in general and definitely don't think he's a Vuc level defender, he'll just never be even average when it really matters. But I still think we can and should try to build a good team with him running the offense as a core starter.

[Red8911]

If they are stuck on 30 vs 20. Why not just do 25 ? Seems like both sides are waiting for the other to fold.

If this keeps dragging and both sides feel strongly about Giddeys worth then maybe the best solution is to find a trade.

[League Circles]

Giddey is better at anything you could possibly post then Dalen.

I mean, Dalen is WILDLY better at defense, which is exactly half the game.

Dalen Terry's defensive impact doesn't look any better. Like at all. can you use any numbers to support that?

Defensive Rating Giddey last year 113 to Terry 116.
Block rate Giddey 1.8% to Terry 1.3%.
Defensive BPM Giddey 1.1 to Terry .2.
Steal rate Giddey 1.9% to Terry 2.1%
Defensive rebound rate Giddey 21.4% to Terry 9%

By almost every defensive metric you can use Giddey was better defensively last year than Terry. First year on the team. Certainly Terry wasn't wildly better.

I just think individual defensive metrics are laughably bad for analysis and always have been. That they apparently show Josh to be better than Terry is proof IMO. Terry isn't an elite defender cause he fouls too much, but he's obviously a good one and wildly better than Josh despite the fouling. Dalen also doesn't get respect from officials which isn't his fault. I seriously can't believe I have to write that Dalen is better than Josh as a defender. Dalen is a near worthless offensive player though. He's the inverse of Vuc.

[League Circles]

If they are stuck on 30 vs 20. Why not just do 25 ? Seems like both sides are waiting for the other to fold.

If this keeps dragging and both sides feel strongly about Giddeys worth then maybe the best solution is to find a trade.

It's a natural game of chicken which neither party has any incentive to end until like 48 hours before camp starts. Why not do 25? Cause the Bulls think Josh MIGHT fold and agree to less, and cause Josh thinks the Bulls MIGHT fold and offer more.

[Infinity2152]

Giddey has until Oct 1st to sign the QO. He has leverage all the way up until that date. Camp usually starts in September. If he does take the QO, not only would he be an unrestricted free agent in 2026, but he can block any trade as well, so we lose all leverage.

Don't see the benefit in drawing this out months, when nothing's going to change. Options remain exactly the same. Stakes remain the same. If they're still far apart at that deadline, that doesn't bode well at all. If you can't get closer in 5 weeks, are you likely to get closer in the last day or two?

They need to try hard to close the gap some before we get there.