Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[League Circles]

He is a MUCH better shooter when hot. He isn't when he isn't. I was referencing your all caps superlative. That makes him overall a better shooter, yes. I never said he wasn't. Coby is a better shooter than all kinds of players who are better overall than Coby is. It is his main skill. I don't get what that had to do with Giddey's shooting and his impact on the team offense. "Coby is a better shooter than Giddey, so therefore... " " what? What is the point you are trying to make? That if Giddey can't shot as well as Coby he isn't with his contract? That unless he can shoot as well as Coby defenses will lay off him? Well good luck finding that guy who shoots a well as Coby and can also do what Giddey can, that Coby can't. Those guys are called superstars and make way more than 25-30 mil.

Accusing me of refusing to consider anything seems like a deflection and a way of avoiding the real discussion.

The discussion was about how numbers don't tell a very full story for shooting ability. Coby was bought up because he's a way better shooter than Giddey despite shooting a lower % from three. Doug walked people through the explanations. So Giddey is a great example of when numbers are indeed misleading. You saying "they are what they are" about shooting numbers makes it pretty clear that you're not interested in considering how poor of a picture they can paint of a guy's ability. Two guys could have the same % and attempt rate from three, with one guy being a much better shooter than the other, because you can really only discover the differences by watching and being honest about the context of what you see. Please note that it was you who of course had to put in your obligatory off-topic digs at Coby. Giddey isn't a good jump shooter because he has terrible form and shoots extremely slowly. It's not that complicated. He's the Joakim Noah of SFs in terms of jump shooting. I like him a lot despite that and the defensive inadequacies.

This seems like it is personal to you. I will just call it a day.

Lol, I admit it kinda is my friend. I find your constant digs at Coby including often off topic digs to be super annoying lol. But it's all good, I'm sure I annoy you on some things similarly. We still see eye to eye on plenty.

[MGB8]

I'd say when the television screen is working, Coby White is a better shooter than Josh Giddey. I'd bet you $1000 that every single NBA coach and player would agree that Coby is the better shooter. Every player is a better shooter "when hot" than whoever else. Coby is better at shooting, period. Only people who refuse to consider the points Doug has made would argue that.

He is a MUCH better shooter when hot. He isn't when he isn't. I was referencing your all caps superlative. That makes him overall a better shooter, yes. I never said he wasn't. Coby is a better shooter than all kinds of players who are better overall than Coby is. It is his main skill. I don't get what that had to do with Giddey's shooting and his impact on the team offense. "Coby is a better shooter than Giddey, so therefore... " " what? What is the point you are trying to make? That if Giddey can't shot as well as Coby he isn't with his contract? That unless he can shoot as well as Coby defenses will lay off him? Well good luck finding that guy who shoots a well as Coby and can also do what Giddey can, that Coby can't. Those guys are called superstars and make way more than 25-30 mil.

Accusing me of refusing to consider anything seems like a deflection and a way of avoiding the real discussion.

The discussion was about how numbers don't tell a very full story for shooting ability. Coby was bought up because he's a way better shooter than Giddey despite shooting a lower % from three. Doug walked people through the explanations. So Giddey is a great example of when numbers are indeed misleading. You saying "they are what they are" about shooting numbers makes it pretty clear that you're not interested in considering how poor of a picture they can paint of a guy's ability. Two guys could have the same % and attempt rate from three, with one guy being a much better shooter than the other, because you can really only discover the differences by watching and being honest about the context of what you see. Please note that it was you who of course had to put in your obligatory off-topic digs at Coby. Giddey isn't a good jump shooter because he has terrible form and shoots extremely slowly. It's not that complicated. He's the Joakim Noah of SFs in terms of jump shooting. I like him a lot despite that and the defensive inadequacies.

It is really misleading to call Giddey the Joakim Noah of SFs. There is no “tornado,” He doesn’t have a Corey or Ronny Brewer like broken shot.

And that is why I posted the two videos on the prior page - to demonstrate with video evidence that at the end of last season, his form and speed on his shot, both catch and shoot and off dribble, had improved. Still some inconsistency, still some awkwardness; but noticeably better. Plenty of players with form that is similarly awkward to Giddey’s late season form are very effective - good - shooters.

Not every good shooter has perfect or near perfect form; it helps, but it isn’t necessary. What is needed is consistency and no physical issues (like Fultz’s shoulder, Shaq’s wrists, etc.).

[Stratmaster]

The discussion was about how numbers don't tell a very full story for shooting ability. Coby was bought up because he's a way better shooter than Giddey despite shooting a lower % from three. Doug walked people through the explanations. So Giddey is a great example of when numbers are indeed misleading. You saying "they are what they are" about shooting numbers makes it pretty clear that you're not interested in considering how poor of a picture they can paint of a guy's ability. Two guys could have the same % and attempt rate from three, with one guy being a much better shooter than the other, because you can really only discover the differences by watching and being honest about the context of what you see. Please note that it was you who of course had to put in your obligatory off-topic digs at Coby. Giddey isn't a good jump shooter because he has terrible form and shoots extremely slowly. It's not that complicated. He's the Joakim Noah of SFs in terms of jump shooting. I like him a lot despite that and the defensive inadequacies.

This seems like it is personal to you. I will just call it a day.

Lol, I admit it kinda is my friend. I find your constant digs at Coby including often off topic digs to be super annoying lol. But it's all good, I'm sure I annoy you on some things similarly. We still see eye to eye on plenty.

I probably overdo it with Coby for 2 reasons. First, every time he has one of his months he is suddenly given all star status and is part of a future core. I don't see that or any objective numbers that indicate that. He is fun as hell to watch though when he is on. And he is a great guy and teammate. Let me be clear, I like Coby and his game. I just don't think he is a top 3 "core" player and hope the Bulls aren't making the mistake of thinking he is.

2nd, I think he is in the wrong role. I believe he could be a super-6th man and this team always makes the mistake of trying to make players be more than who they are and setting them up for failure. Now, this season, with this roster, .. he is going to be the starter and I agree and (unlike previous seasons) am fine with that decision.

[Infinity2152]

Ngl, I think with the addition of Okoro, Noa, Matas in the starting line-up, and possible (probable?) departure of Vucevic and/or Collins, I'm much less worried about Giddey and Coby's defense than I was before. Also see Coby as more a super sixth man, but if we get a defensive center, we'll could still be very good as a unit. The pieces surrounding Giddey and Coby should be much better defensively than they had before.

Okoro is great and/or Noa is good, we still have Williams, Phillips and Ayo as possible redemption defenders too. Not everybody has to be a plus defender at all times.

Think my only problem with Coby now is I really believe he's going to get paid like a legit number 2 with a good season. And we'll have no leverage. Since all anyone expects from him is scoring and 3pt shooting, he's set up for a great season in those playing next to Giddey and getting the most shot attempts. Being unable to sign him to a fair extension sucks.

[League Circles]

He is a MUCH better shooter when hot. He isn't when he isn't. I was referencing your all caps superlative. That makes him overall a better shooter, yes. I never said he wasn't. Coby is a better shooter than all kinds of players who are better overall than Coby is. It is his main skill. I don't get what that had to do with Giddey's shooting and his impact on the team offense. "Coby is a better shooter than Giddey, so therefore... " " what? What is the point you are trying to make? That if Giddey can't shot as well as Coby he isn't with his contract? That unless he can shoot as well as Coby defenses will lay off him? Well good luck finding that guy who shoots a well as Coby and can also do what Giddey can, that Coby can't. Those guys are called superstars and make way more than 25-30 mil.

Accusing me of refusing to consider anything seems like a deflection and a way of avoiding the real discussion.

The discussion was about how numbers don't tell a very full story for shooting ability. Coby was bought up because he's a way better shooter than Giddey despite shooting a lower % from three. Doug walked people through the explanations. So Giddey is a great example of when numbers are indeed misleading. You saying "they are what they are" about shooting numbers makes it pretty clear that you're not interested in considering how poor of a picture they can paint of a guy's ability. Two guys could have the same % and attempt rate from three, with one guy being a much better shooter than the other, because you can really only discover the differences by watching and being honest about the context of what you see. Please note that it was you who of course had to put in your obligatory off-topic digs at Coby. Giddey isn't a good jump shooter because he has terrible form and shoots extremely slowly. It's not that complicated. He's the Joakim Noah of SFs in terms of jump shooting. I like him a lot despite that and the defensive inadequacies.

It is really misleading to call Giddey the Joakim Noah of SFs. There is no “tornado,” He doesn’t have a Corey or Ronny Brewer like broken shot.

And that is why I posted the two videos on the prior page - to demonstrate with video evidence that at the end of last season, his form and speed on his shot, both catch and shoot and off dribble, had improved. Still some inconsistency, still some awkwardness; but noticeably better. Plenty of players with form that is similarly awkward to Giddey’s late season form are very effective - good - shooters.

Not every good shooter has perfect or near perfect form; it helps, but it isn’t necessary. What is needed is consistency and no physical issues (like Fultz’s shoulder, Shaq’s wrists, etc.).

Fair enough, I think you're right that his form has indeed improved, but I'm still very concerned about the speed of release and lack of respect from defenses.

[dougthonus]

Meh. I can't and wouldn't argue your logic. I just don't think it would be to the level difference you do. I hope teams leave Josh wide open for 3's if he can hit them at 40٪ (40% on just the wide open ones).

Besides. If the Bulls are having to set up offense in the half court like that most of the time, they have failed out of the gate. It's run and gun, remember?

EDITED to correct the damned autofill mistakes

FWIW, I wasn't arguing this is a necessary requirement for him to be a good player. I described this as the "Giddey becomes a max player" path. No matter how much run and gun you are though, you are going to still need a good half court game at the end of the day too.

[League Circles]

Ngl, I think with the addition of Okoro, Noa, Matas in the starting line-up, and possible (probable?) departure of Vucevic and/or Collins, I'm much less worried about Giddey and Coby's defense than I was before. Also see Coby as more a super sixth man, but if we get a defensive center, we'll could still be very good as a unit. The pieces surrounding Giddey and Coby should be much better defensively than they had before.

Okoro is great and/or Noa is good, we still have Williams, Phillips and Ayo as possible redemption defenders too. Not everybody has to be a plus defender at all times.

Think my only problem with Coby now is I really believe he's going to get paid like a legit number 2 with a good season. And we'll have no leverage. Since all anyone expects from him is scoring and 3pt shooting, he's set up for a great season in those playing next to Giddey and getting the most shot attempts. Being unable to sign him to a fair extension sucks.

I think we've got to hope that Matas in particular steps up into a bigger scoring role this year to mitigate the reasons that Coby is a risk to be overpaid.

[Infinity2152]

When Giddey is in the half court, how much is he going to be off ball? He's probably bringing the ball up, defenders will close on him to start in most plays. Lot of these problems sound like problems for him as an on-ball jump shooter. Don't think that will ever be his main game. He's going to draw instant gravity as primary ballhandler. Guys are going to play off him as the primary playmaker, unless he's shooting like Curry. Plus he'll drive to the basket. He connects on threes at a high enough rate at volume that teams would probably guard him closer if he wasn't a pass first guy anyway. Does slow release matter that much if guys play off you? Seems like that would somewhat cancel out to average shot contest.

Granted, he could improve his shot speed, is he getting his shots blocked a lot? How much is it actually affecting his game having a slow release?

[nomorezorro]

on the latest zach lowe podcast, he guesses giddey's contract will come in at 4 years / $90 million, maybe a hair higher

this is informed speculation rather than any super hard intel, but based on what he's heard, he doesn't think the contract gets quite up to $25m AAV, and he really doesn't think giddey's getting the $30m he wants. reiterates the RFA market is just totally dead

[sco]

I think we are debating everything except the real question. Maybe this will bring us together.

We all agree shooting would be Giddey's biggest question mark. The discussion is about what to pay him. Almost all agree it's 25-30 mil. Doug has his top number at 25. Mine is at 30. So the question is, is his shooting such a liability that it should keep the Bulls from paying him more than 25m.

My opinion. The numbers don't show that when considering the other things he brings to the table. Especially when you add that the Bulls have no desire to play set-up half court offense, and Giddey's style of play is perfect for keeping them away from having to play set-up half court offense.

Doug, and I believe you, are still concerned about that. I fully acknowledged understanding of that concern a couple times. But my response is... MEH.

I'm a bit more concerned with Giddey's defense than his jump shooting (I say jump shooting cause he's quite solid on his floaters and running drives). But my top number for him is at least 30 mil, probably more, definitely in a matching offer sheet situation if that were the case.

I just think he'll always be a fundamentally sub par jump shooter and defender when it really matters due to what I'd basically call physical disability relative to other 6'-8" guys that play the 3 position. But that's OK. He can still be worthy of being a core starter and running the offense and getting paid 30 mil. Certainly in comparison to letting him walk for nothing.

I tend to agree that defense is the more important item. That said, I thought he made real strides defensively. IMO, part of it was learning our system. He also seemed to learn from Ball on how to anticipate passes and shots IMO. Post-Zach he averaged an impressive 2.3 stocks per game.

His shot is looking less ugly. He has a weird wrist bend. I was wondering if he does that because he seems to have very big hands (couldn't find a measurement).

[Red8911]

People talked about Ball's form too, lmao! Giddey had 6.1 3pt attempts/gm on good shooting. His 3pt shooting impact is like Collins or Terry? Really? Williams is a better shooter, Giddey is a far more impactful shooter because of volume. Slow release didn't stop him from launching over 6 attempts/gm on good shooting. If he shot faster on 6 attempts with good shooting, we get more points?

Exactly,bottom line is Giddey improved from the 3pt line, he looked more confident shooting and made so many consistently. That proved that he is capable of taking/making 3s.

Other than the 3s his overall scoring game improved as well. He started to use his size/speed to his advantage by driving the ball in to either score or get to the line.

He was no where near the player he was earlier in the season. Easy all star if he continues to play like this and I do think the Bulls will have a decent record if he does.

[Infinity2152]

Ngl, I think with the addition of Okoro, Noa, Matas in the starting line-up, and possible (probable?) departure of Vucevic and/or Collins, I'm much less worried about Giddey and Coby's defense than I was before. Also see Coby as more a super sixth man, but if we get a defensive center, we'll could still be very good as a unit. The pieces surrounding Giddey and Coby should be much better defensively than they had before.

Okoro is great and/or Noa is good, we still have Williams, Phillips and Ayo as possible redemption defenders too. Not everybody has to be a plus defender at all times.

Think my only problem with Coby now is I really believe he's going to get paid like a legit number 2 with a good season. And we'll have no leverage. Since all anyone expects from him is scoring and 3pt shooting, he's set up for a great season in those playing next to Giddey and getting the most shot attempts. Being unable to sign him to a fair extension sucks.

I think we've got to hope that Matas in particular steps up into a bigger scoring role this year to mitigate the reasons that Coby is a risk to be overpaid.

I'm with that. I think in real time though, Coby and Vucevic are the alphas and they're going to take their shots. They're the oldest and have been there the longest. Giddey and Matas basically just got here last year. Not saying that's how it should be, but I think Coby gets the most shot attempts. Matas is likely third. Just my opinion. If Vucevic is gone, Coby's really the senior guy for the first time. One of the Bulls issues, is Giddey ready to be the floor leader? Going to have to manage egos.

Couple of months ago people were talking about Giddey was only worth the exception, he wasn't playing great the first half. Ton of complaints, he's not a starting PG. I said "Worst thing that could happen is Giddey snaps out this year, going to cost us way more." Caught a lot of flack and now we're arguing about $30 mill. Coby have a great year, cost could go up drastically. I'm guilty too, I literally just said I see Coby as a super sixth man, lmao!

Didn't Giddey go a crazy defensive run at some point after Zach left? Multiple blocks and steals per game back to back, all over the court? I do think Coby with improved focus on defense is a very good player. Don't expect him to be a great defender, but if he consistently upped his intensity....

[dougthonus]

on the latest zach lowe podcast, he guesses giddey's contract will come in at 4 years / $90 million, maybe a hair higher

this is informed speculation rather than any super hard intel, but based on what he's heard, he doesn't think the contract gets quite up to $25m AAV, and he really doesn't think giddey's getting the $30m he wants. reiterates the RFA market is just totally dead

That's interesting. I would guess if I'm Giddey that I'd be looking at team option on that 4th year to take that deal.

[nomorezorro]

i was thinking a similar thing, and then i was thinking "well i wouldn't want to keep giddey in a scenario where he's *not* opting out on ~$22 million", which made me wonder if a mutual option on the last year of the contract might be a good tool here

i feel like those maybe aren't super common in basketball? but this seems like a situation where there's a particularly strong argument for it

[HomoSapien]

on the latest zach lowe podcast, he guesses giddey's contract will come in at 4 years / $90 million, maybe a hair higher

this is informed speculation rather than any super hard intel, but based on what he's heard, he doesn't think the contract gets quite up to $25m AAV, and he really doesn't think giddey's getting the $30m he wants. reiterates the RFA market is just totally dead

That's interesting. I would guess if I'm Giddey that I'd be looking at team option on that 4th year to take that deal.

If all the intel we're hearing is accurate, then the "close to $20 number" I assume is probably around $22m already. I still think getting him at $25-27m is a good deal for us.

I've mentioned giving him a contract that can become worth $30m if he reaches certain incentives. If not that, I also think a descending contract makes sense. Given that we have his bird rights, it can descend up to 8% a year. A four-year contract starting at $30m would look like: $30m, $27.6m, $25.2m, and $22.8m (total: $105.6m). Is that really not palatable for us? In this scenario, I think both sides should feel like they've won. It doesn't really matter if Giddey is overpaid in the beginning of his deal. What matters more is that he's underpaid in the later years.

[2weekswithpay]

When Giddey is in the half court, how much is he going to be off ball? He's probably bringing the ball up, defenders will close on him to start in most plays. Lot of these problems sound like problems for him as an on-ball jump shooter. Don't think that will ever be his main game. He's going to draw instant gravity as primary ballhandler. Guys are going to play off him as the primary playmaker, unless he's shooting like Curry. Plus he'll drive to the basket. He connects on threes at a high enough rate at volume that teams would probably guard him closer if he wasn't a pass first guy anyway. Does slow release matter that much if guys play off you? Seems like that would somewhat cancel out to average shot contest.

Granted, he could improve his shot speed, is he getting his shots blocked a lot? How much is it actually affecting his game having a slow release?

He'll be off-ball quite a bit. Our offense under Donovan doesn't have one player dominate the ball. Giddey spends a decent amount of time off-ball. In the play-in game, the Heat were aggressive in helping off Giddey whenever he didn't have the ball. The slow release lets teams help and potentially recover in enough time to contest.

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[Infinity2152]

on the latest zach lowe podcast, he guesses giddey's contract will come in at 4 years / $90 million, maybe a hair higher

this is informed speculation rather than any super hard intel, but based on what he's heard, he doesn't think the contract gets quite up to $25m AAV, and he really doesn't think giddey's getting the $30m he wants. reiterates the RFA market is just totally dead

That's interesting. I would guess if I'm Giddey that I'd be looking at team option on that 4th year to take that deal.

Great point. Now we have to think of the future. Would it be worth it to give him a couple mill more AAV to get that 4th year guaranteed, and the fifth year a team option? He's 22, if he's great and we have to re-sign him after 3 years on a 15-20% expanded cap, he's likely getting much more the final two years than $25-26 mill if they're really at 4 yrs/$90 mill.

5 yrs/$125 mill, team option year 5 vs 4yr $90 mill, player option year 4? Which is better for the Bulls?
$25 mill AAV for 5 years guaranteed vs $22.5 mill, 3 yrs guaranteed for us.

He's 22, I hope we lean towards better guarantees for us vs saving every dollar. Even 5yr, $125 mill no team option, I'd take over the 4yr/90 with a player option year 4 for our team.

[dougthonus]

on the latest zach lowe podcast, he guesses giddey's contract will come in at 4 years / $90 million, maybe a hair higher

this is informed speculation rather than any super hard intel, but based on what he's heard, he doesn't think the contract gets quite up to $25m AAV, and he really doesn't think giddey's getting the $30m he wants. reiterates the RFA market is just totally dead

That's interesting. I would guess if I'm Giddey that I'd be looking at team option on that 4th year to take that deal.

Great point. Now we have to think of the future. Would it be worth it to give him a couple mill more AAV to get that 4th year guaranteed, and the fifth year a team option? He's 22, if he's great and we have to re-sign him after 3 years on a 15-20% expanded cap, he's likely getting much more the final two years than $25-26 mill if they're really at 4 yrs/$90 mill.

5 yrs/$125 mill, team option year 5 vs 4yr $90 mill, player option year 4? Which is better for the Bulls?
$25 mill AAV for 5 years guaranteed vs $22.5 mill, 3 yrs guaranteed for us.

He's 22, I hope we lean towards better guarantees for us vs saving every dollar. Even 5yr, $125 mill no team option, I'd take over the 4yr/90 with a player option year 4 for our team.

Sorry, I said team option, but meant player option. If he's goin going to sign at that price, I think he would want flexibility to get out. Though the idea of paying him more to get a team option is also a different flavor that would be interesting.

[nomorezorro]

i mean, the long term deal is better for the bulls if he's really good and the short term deal is better for the bulls if he's not really good

the pat williams deal is the perfect example of why you shouldn't be signing contracts motivated just by the premise of securing a long-term value if the player is his best self

[League Circles]

Giddey has until Oct 1st to sign the QO. He has leverage all the way up until that date. Camp usually starts in September. If he does take the QO, not only would he be an unrestricted free agent in 2026, but he can block any trade as well, so we lose all leverage.

Don't see the benefit in drawing this out months, when nothing's going to change. Options remain exactly the same. Stakes remain the same. If they're still far apart at that deadline, that doesn't bode well at all. If you can't get closer in 5 weeks, are you likely to get closer in the last day or two?

They need to try hard to close the gap some before we get there.

I don't really understand. What advantage is there for the Bulls to up their offer now? It may be a somewhat trivial difference but I'd wait until 24-48 hours before the deadline before increasing the offer if I'm the FO.

Both sides almost certainly already know how far they'll bend and both realize there is little advantage to doing it now.

If I understand correctly, and maybe I don't, if Giddey doesn't take the QO by October 1st, he loses it as an option, but the Bulls do NOT lose his RFA rights.

So I think it's the Bulls that have the leverage. If he doesn't take the QO he basically has to sit out the year or sign an offer sheet for peanuts which the Bulls would match.