Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[League Circles]

Not sure the Bulls should even entertain a 3 year deal or a PO unless it changes the AAV that Josh is willing to sign for significantly. Bulls should stand firm on a 4 year or 5 year offer. They shouldn't feel guilty or anxious about offering Josh 5/100, which we all know is the absolute bare minimum that they've already offered.

[Stratmaster]

Meh. I can't and wouldn't argue your logic. I just don't think it would be to the level difference you do. I hope teams leave Josh wide open for 3's if he can hit them at 40٪ (40% on just the wide open ones).

Besides. If the Bulls are having to set up offense in the half court like that most of the time, they have failed out of the gate. It's run and gun, remember?

EDITED to correct the damned autofill mistakes

FWIW, I wasn't arguing this is a necessary requirement for him to be a good player. I described this as the "Giddey becomes a max player" path. No matter how much run and gun you are though, you are going to still need a good half court game at the end of the day too.

Yeah I don't know why the max word is being used by anyone. I don't think anyone believes he should be paid the max based on 1/2 a season of elite play. It's been an interesting thread. 22 mil here, 25 mil there, 30 mil for me and now max?

[Infinity2152]

It's not just a flat salary matter. There are multiple other things, like length of contract, how many years guaranteed, performance bonuses. Giddey doesn't sit out a year, he gets $11 mill this year, and is an unrestricted free agent. The main advantage for Giddey signing now would be security over taking the QO. He's already made a ton of money, has shoe deals, and would get $11 mill worst case from the Bulls accepting the QO. Security's not a huge issue.

We can negotiate a lot of things and work with the money. Give and take both ways. You say there's no point in doing it now. What changes when both sides backs are against the wall on Oct 1st? It could still go either way. Giddey probably has a number he won't go under, and the Bulls have a number they won't go over. Really not good to put somebody's back against the wall. Hash it out now, before it's do this or else.

It's like the Myles Turner trade. Pacers would redo that and offer him more money right now I bet, if they could redo that.
Worst case scenario is Giddey can take the QO. That's pretty damn bad, imo. I'd be doing everything I could to prevent that now, not waiting until Oct 30th. No side gets an advantage waiting. What CAN happen is a team clears cap space this summer and messes up our advantage.

[Stratmaster]

I think we are debating everything except the real question. Maybe this will bring us together.

We all agree shooting would be Giddey's biggest question mark. The discussion is about what to pay him. Almost all agree it's 25-30 mil. Doug has his top number at 25. Mine is at 30. So the question is, is his shooting such a liability that it should keep the Bulls from paying him more than 25m.

My opinion. The numbers don't show that when considering the other things he brings to the table. Especially when you add that the Bulls have no desire to play set-up half court offense, and Giddey's style of play is perfect for keeping them away from having to play set-up half court offense.

Doug, and I believe you, are still concerned about that. I fully acknowledged understanding of that concern a couple times. But my response is... MEH.

I'm a bit more concerned with Giddey's defense than his jump shooting (I say jump shooting cause he's quite solid on his floaters and running drives). But my top number for him is at least 30 mil, probably more, definitely in a matching offer sheet situation if that were the case.

I just think he'll always be a fundamentally sub par jump shooter and defender when it really matters due to what I'd basically call physical disability relative to other 6'-8" guys that play the 3 position. But that's OK. He can still be worthy of being a core starter and running the offense and getting paid 30 mil. Certainly in comparison to letting him walk for nothing.

I tend to agree that defense is the more important item. That said, I thought he made real strides defensively. IMO, part of it was learning our system. He also seemed to learn from Ball on how to anticipate passes and shots IMO. Post-Zach he averaged an impressive 2.3 stocks per game.

His shot is looking less ugly. He has a weird wrist bend. I was wondering if he does that because he seems to have very big hands (couldn't find a measurement).

He was tied for best on the team with Lonzo for the season in stocks per game. His post -asg stocks were WAY higher than anyone else on the team. He is a disruptive defender and I think because of that he nets out to average despite his weaknesses.

[Infinity2152]

Wonder how Giddey plays if he adds 5-15 lbs of muscle over the next couple of years. He's not fast, but if he could increase his strength without slowing down, he'll be stronger on both sides of the ball.

[Stratmaster]

on the latest zach lowe podcast, he guesses giddey's contract will come in at 4 years / $90 million, maybe a hair higher

this is informed speculation rather than any super hard intel, but based on what he's heard, he doesn't think the contract gets quite up to $25m AAV, and he really doesn't think giddey's getting the $30m he wants. reiterates the RFA market is just totally dead

If the Bulls can get him for 23 mil and both sides are happy, that would be an exceptional outcome. I was and kind of still am expecting 27 or 28 mil. He started at 30 and you know he didn't start at his bottom line so he should certainly accept 27-28 mil assuming the rest of the terms are acceptable, and maybe even 25. 23 mil is a long way from 30 though.

[Dan Z]

Is anyone okay with Giddey leaving?

[nomorezorro]

i wouldn't be *happy* about him leaving, just because him continuing to perform at his post-ASB level is one of the only even-remotely-plausible paths this team has toward being decent anytime soon, but i do think letting him walk for nothing has a higher chance of being a good outcome than paying him $30 million a year over 5 years

[Bulliever2020]

Would be totally fine with him leaving tbh. Even though we won't, I would tank hard, grab one of the potential franchise cornerstones in the next draft and build around Matas, Noa, and 2026 draft pick.

[Infinity2152]

Giddey's 22. Losing Giddey for nothing would be like losing a guy you drafted in the top 5 a year ago who was averaging damn a triple double to close the season because you don't want to pay him. He's the level player you're lucky any non top 3 pick player turns out to be. Trading Caruso to get Giddey, Giddey has a great season, and then lose him for nothing is the epitome of waste.

Every draft pick you need luck to hit on a superstar. Giddey could still be that. I'd say his odds are higher than the majority of draft picks. His floor is definitely way higher. Don't care how many years of experience he has, he was only 21 last year.

Top 3 picks 2024 draft: Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Reed Sheppard. I'm taking Giddey.

Lose Giddey, who we're counting on to run the team. While keeping Coby. Bulls might offer Coby double what they're offering Giddey in the first minute of FA. That's going to turn out great.

[TheSuzerain]

Is anyone okay with Giddey leaving?

If it gets AK fired then yes sign me up

[nomorezorro]

Losing Giddey for nothing would be like losing a guy you drafted in the top 5 a year ago who was averaging damn a triple double to close the season because you don't want to pay him.

it wouldn't really be like that on account of giddey playing in the nba for three years before this most recent season, and also him being acquired via trade for a role player rather than drafted in the top 5

[BullChit]

Is anyone okay with Giddey leaving?

If it gets AK fired then yes sign me up

Hahaha a happy compromise.

Imagine if we lose Giddey for nothing it would also mean we got absolutely nothing for Caruso...

AK would have to be on his way out of that happens.

[Infinity2152]

Losing Giddey for nothing would be like losing a guy you drafted in the top 5 a year ago who was averaging damn a triple double to close the season because you don't want to pay him.

it wouldn't really be like that on account of giddey playing in the nba for three years before this most recent season, and also him being acquired via trade for a role player rather than drafted in the top 5

He could have played in the NBA 20 years, from the age of 2. He was still only 21 last year. There are guys coming into the draft at 21. The Giddey we saw last year would have gone where in that draft? Don't think a single rookie in that class outperformed him, definitely not the top 3 guys.

You're talking about Caruso as a role player, like he didn't immediately get a $20 mill AAV contract and help win a championship, lmao! People were mad we didn't get an extra pick. Clearly he's valued above "role player". I think he's a valuable guy, anyway.

People always equate years in the league like that means more than age. These kids are in HS until 18. Then either college ball or to the league. I'd argue there's a way better chance of getting good fundamentals going the college route than just being thrown into the fire. He has the same potential as any 21-year-old where this is their second year in the league. He also played out of position as secondary ballhandler his first 3 years.

Noa's played pro ball already. Has to be higher level than HS, nobody's expecting him to come in on way higher level than the other 18 year olds. I do think playing in the NBA has made Giddey much better than almost any similar age rookie in last years draft. Don't know how that lowers his potential, he performed well against NBA starters. Raises his floor, seems to me.

[Dan Z]

Is anyone okay with Giddey leaving?

If it gets AK fired then yes sign me up

Hahaha a happy compromise.

Imagine if we lose Giddey for nothing it would also mean we got absolutely nothing for Caruso...

AK would have to be on his way out of that happens.

You forget that the Bulls have only had 4 GMs since 1985 (when Jerry bought the team).

If Giddey leaves then I bet a lot of what they've been building falls apart. I guess that means a top pick for 2026? I don't think that's a bad thing.

[GuardianEnzo]

He's not leaving, ROFL.

[Muzbar]

Is anyone okay with Giddey leaving?

Depends on how he leaves.

If it's via a S&T to another team that's willing to give him what he's after, it would also depend on what the Bulls got back.

No team is going to outright sign him this offseason, as no one has the money.

So that leaves next offseason which means he's taken the QO this year. Losing him for nothing would suck.

With all that said, I don't think any of them happen, Giddey will be resigned, whether that's long or short term IDK, but he'll be back.

[Bulliever2020]

100% agree Giddey is not going anywhere. He will be resigned. The only question is how much. Both sides have too much to lose. All the talk is just good message board fodder but in the end it will be much ado about nothing. 4/112 is my prediction at this moment.

[MrSparkle]

So of all the players on the Bulls, besides Matas’ potential, Giddey is the hardest to replace. That what makes the Bulls’ dead-end position. Despite having the market leverage, they chose the wrong guy to leverage against imo.

[League Circles]

Bulls should offer a declining 5 year deal with max 8% decreases starting at 30 mil, team option on year 5. He gets his "30 mil" wish in the most team advantageous way possible.