Zach Lavine

[JonFromVA]

LaVine has a weak physical presence on the court and it shows up on defense, rebounding and off the ball. Much like Beal, though more athletic while not as skilled. This kind of player scales badly on more talented and physical teams where his offense is less needed and his defense gets highlighted as a weak link in every rotation.

Players like LaVine and Beal are prime candidates to get albatross contracts because what they're good at -- scoring -- is the main pathway to stardom. A top-10 defender in the league with very limited ball skills like Caruso is consigned to "roleplayer" status because defensive value is so much less well detected (especially by casual fans) than the ability to throw up 25 PPG on positive TS Add.

Beal's career has been derailed by injuries, but he's been a tier above LaVine in terms of impact even so.

[Rainwater]

Needs to sharpen his instincts on the court. Could be a better playmaker. Could definitely be a better defender with his tools. He's more of a 2nd or 3rd option kind of guy, but he's played mostly on teams which didn't really have a chance to go anywhere and has had frequent availability issues.

I imagine on a team with a strong backline and a real first option, he'd probably look a lot better... and he sure doesn't look bad on offense now anyway.

He honestly should be a super 6th man. I don’t think your team will be good if he is your 2nd or 3rd option. He is can drive, shoot, and pass better than most players in his position.

He will need to be a guy you hide on defense on a quality defending team. I just wouldn’t want him on the court in the last 5 mins in a close game because I don’t trust him on the defensive side of the floor. Coach would have to do offense/ defense substitutes with him.

It has actually been nice to see him be as good as he has been on the offensive side of ball. When he was drafted, I never thought he would be as good as he has been.

Yeah, I think he would be a great 6th man as well.

[kodo]

Is his only chance at getting the right role a buyout? Are there any contending teams that could legitimately take him dumping bench guys?

I thought the Denver deal, Lavine for MPJ, would have been great for Lavine. He's finally put next to a good playmaker something he hasn't had in his career ever (other than a couple of months of Lonzo, and the Bulls were a #1 seed during those few months) and not forced to create wild shots. When just shooting clean shots & cutting for dunks he's one of the most efficient 23+ ppg scorers out there, 64% TS this year for both teams and does a lot of his 3P shooting off the dribble.

His contract is just too large to move easily. The old Bulls FO had him at $19M, the current one just gave him a max without really even getting another competing offer. He was never a no-discussion-max-extension-and-do-it-early tier player.

He's also been injured quite often and the Bulls have him play through it. He needed wrist surgery all through 2022-2023, his stats are worse that year but played 77 games injured. He also needed surgery in 23-24, and actually got it that season against the Bulls wishes and not surprisingly his #s looked similar to his AS years after actually getting it.

[JonFromVA]

DeRozan you say? How about Sabonis too?

Lineup data:

Ellis-LaVine-DeRozan-Murray-Sabonis 219 min => -4 +/-
Ellis-Monk-DeRozan-Murray-Sabonis 200 min => +79 +/-

https://www.82games.com/2425/2425SAC2.HTM

If it were a longer trend, I might get worked up. Given it’s a small sample size of about 4.5 games worth of minutes, while adjusting to new teammates post trade deadline (unlike Monk), and not knowing who those units were matched up against, I’m not going to put a ton of stock into this particular data.

I probably got the same rebuttal 8/9 years ago when I'd point this sort of thing out about LaVine.

If you want negative evidence, you've got plenty of it at this point. What you need to make your case is positive evidence, and good luck finding a large enough sample size of that to satisfy your requirement.

[tsherkin]

I probably got the same rebuttal 8/9 years ago when I'd point this sort of thing out about LaVine.

If you want negative evidence, you've got plenty of it at this point. What you need to make your case is positive evidence, and good luck finding a large enough sample size of that to satisfy your requirement.

I think the issue here, again, is that you're looking for him to bootstrap bad squads. He's definitely a guy who needs to be placed into the correct situation for maximum utility. That's what secondary and tertiary type players show, routinely. We know he isn't a superstar. We know he isn't a perennial All-Star, either. He's a solid offensive player who needs specific context in which to thrive, and he's largely played on very bad teams which haven't helped him or provided that at all.

[Wingy]

The old Bulls FO had him at $19M, the current one just gave him a max without really even getting another competing offer. He was never a no-discussion-max-extension-and-do-it-early tier player.

Show me the 2x all star entering their prime that didn’t get the max.

No one is ever able to succeed at the task.

Zach signed summer of 2022, and the new CBA wasn’t ratified until April 2023.

It feels like I’m defending the Bulls here, but people act like it was a no-brainer to do something that is basically unprecedented.

[LarsV8]

He is a non or negative impact player.

Every team he has gone too has gotten worse, while the former team got better.

No one should consider him part of any "core". He would be a luxury on a team who was top heavy and had a number of minimum level guys in the rotation, where he could come in on a bench role and maybe utilize his efficiency to just suffocate an opposing bench with high usage, while no other offensive options are available.

This would be his use on a reasonable deal, sub MLE.

AT 50m, multiple years, he is one of the worst contracts in the league.

[Wingy]

DeRozan you say? How about Sabonis too?

Lineup data:

Ellis-LaVine-DeRozan-Murray-Sabonis 219 min => -4 +/-
Ellis-Monk-DeRozan-Murray-Sabonis 200 min => +79 +/-

https://www.82games.com/2425/2425SAC2.HTM

If it were a longer trend, I might get worked up. Given it’s a small sample size of about 4.5 games worth of minutes, while adjusting to new teammates post trade deadline (unlike Monk), and not knowing who those units were matched up against, I’m not going to put a ton of stock into this particular data.

I probably got the same rebuttal 8/9 years ago when I'd point this sort of thing out about LaVine.

If you want negative evidence, you've got plenty of it at this point. What you need to make your case is positive evidence, and good luck finding a large enough sample size of that to satisfy your requirement.

So the small sample size is ok to undermine him, but not ok for someone to make a positive case?

It’s weird how some players who aren’t all that consequential in the grand NBA scheme of things draw so much impassioned vitriol. I don’t remember ever seeing these kinds of posts for maxed out guys like Tobias Harris.

I also didn’t get my edit in time. The thing you responded to originally was me saying his best gravity teammate has been DeMar. You chimed in with Domas, who yeah - doesn’t provide gravity and serves to clog the middle just like DeMar.

[Drakeem]

I'll always be a believer. A three level scorer who can do it at the efficiency that he does it isn't easy to come by. He's one of those players that never quite got put into a good situation, and right when he was about to take the next steps he had to deal with injuries. Being constantly injured brings your development to a HALT.

[Pointgod]

He’s a 2/3 option that gets paid like a 1. That’s the biggest problem with Lavine. He’s been put into dysfunctional environments in Chicago and Sacramento. He’d look great in Milwaulkee just feeding off of Giannis but he’s also capable of being a secondary creator. His efficiency last year was insane but the contract and injuries are brutal.

[JonFromVA]

I probably got the same rebuttal 8/9 years ago when I'd point this sort of thing out about LaVine.

If you want negative evidence, you've got plenty of it at this point. What you need to make your case is positive evidence, and good luck finding a large enough sample size of that to satisfy your requirement.

I think the issue here, again, is that you're looking for him to bootstrap bad squads. He's definitely a guy who needs to be placed into the correct situation for maximum utility. That's what secondary and tertiary type players show, routinely. We know he isn't a superstar. We know he isn't a perennial All-Star, either. He's a solid offensive player who needs specific context in which to thrive, and he's largely played on very bad teams which haven't helped him or provided that at all.

No-no not at all, I'm looking for Zach to actually make his team better when he's on the floor than off which is something he's rarely done and something which should be trivial for a decent player on a bad team.

If you want to imagine there's a perfect situation where Zach's ability to shoot can shine and all the problems he's been causing can be addressed by roster - umm ok? It's possible, but we can't assume even that without evidence and usually there's at least a little evidence.

[JonFromVA]

If it were a longer trend, I might get worked up. Given it’s a small sample size of about 4.5 games worth of minutes, while adjusting to new teammates post trade deadline (unlike Monk), and not knowing who those units were matched up against, I’m not going to put a ton of stock into this particular data.

I probably got the same rebuttal 8/9 years ago when I'd point this sort of thing out about LaVine.

If you want negative evidence, you've got plenty of it at this point. What you need to make your case is positive evidence, and good luck finding a large enough sample size of that to satisfy your requirement.

So the small sample size is ok to undermine him, but not ok for someone to make a positive case?

It’s weird how some players who aren’t all that consequential in the grand NBA scheme of things draw so much impassioned vitriol. I don’t remember ever seeing these kinds of posts for maxed out guys like Tobias Harris.

I also didn’t get my edit in time. The thing you responded to originally was me saying his best gravity teammate has been DeMar. You chimed in with Domas, who yeah - doesn’t provide gravity and serves to clog the middle just like DeMar.

Hey, the sample size was your bar, not mine. I wouldn't expect you to bring a counter argument that you didn't deem sufficient.

Tobias is pretty clearly the better player, but because Tobias has never shot the ball or scored the anywhere close to what Zach can do he's not as polarizing.

As for gravity, isn't Zach supposed to be providing that with his shooting?

We've even seen Kyle Korver have an MVP level impact one season all due to his gravity and how much defenses had to key on him.

[tsherkin]

No-no not at all, I'm looking for Zach to actually make his team better when he's on the floor than off which is something he's rarely done and something which should be trivial for a decent player on a bad team.

If you want to imagine there's a perfect situation where Zach's ability to shoot can shine and all the problems he's been causing can be addressed by roster - umm ok? It's possible, but we can't assume even that without evidence and usually there's at least a little evidence.

I should point out that while you're looking at raw plus/minus lineup data, he's been a net positive on offense and was a top-40 player last year, offensively, in actual offensive EPM. And he has often been quite good offensively. In 2021, for example (albeit in a 58-game season), he was 15th in the league.

So yes, there's a good deal of evidence that he can be a good player, and that context matters a fair bit.

[vxmike]

He’s a 2/3 option that gets paid like a 1. That’s the biggest problem with Lavine. He’s been put into dysfunctional environments in Chicago and Sacramento. He’d look great in Milwaulkee just feeding off of Giannis but he’s also capable of being a secondary creator. His efficiency last year was insane but the contract and injuries are brutal.

This. He’d look great on a team like MKE or GSW.

GSW has the MLE if Sac wants to buy him out. The Warriors really need more scoring.

Most likely he rides out his $95m the next two seasons that enters MLE-land.

[tsherkin]

This. He’d look great on a team like MKE or GSW.

Lavine with the Warriors would be very, very interesting.

[Mr B]

If Zack was making $25M, there would be lots of teams willing to take a gamble and see if he can translate those raw stats into a winning environment. And stay healthy of course. At $47M? Who has $47M in salary to dump on the hope it works with him?

It’s definitely his salary that keeps him from getting more attention from teams. His game will need to improve dramatically (especially on the defensive end) or he will need decrease his salary dramatically on his next contract. One of the two things needs to happen. If he were making $20M-$25M per season most of the top teams would be trying to acquire LeVine.

[SNPA]

lol at calling Sabonis a clogger. Hilariously bad take.

[JonFromVA]

No-no not at all, I'm looking for Zach to actually make his team better when he's on the floor than off which is something he's rarely done and something which should be trivial for a decent player on a bad team.

If you want to imagine there's a perfect situation where Zach's ability to shoot can shine and all the problems he's been causing can be addressed by roster - umm ok? It's possible, but we can't assume even that without evidence and usually there's at least a little evidence.

I should point out that while you're looking at raw plus/minus lineup data, he's been a net positive on offense and was a top-40 player last year, offensively, in actual offensive EPM. And he has often been quite good offensively. In 2021, for example (albeit in a 58-game season), he was 15th in the league.

So yes, there's a good deal of evidence that he can be a good player, and that context matters a fair bit.

Not in a league where players have teammates and have to play defense.

[tsherkin]

Not in a league where players have teammates and have to play defense.

Eh, overplayed in Lavine's case. His defensive numbers aren't great, but he's improved some, and if Portland could win 53 games with Dame, a team with a strong defense and a lead scorer could win quite nicely with Lavine, to put it bluntly.

Keep in mind that he's not the only reason that Chicago has been largely disastrous on defense. And they WERE a positive defense in 2022... with both Lavine and DeRozan on the floor, and DDR is actively an atrocious defender, far worse than Lavine. So again, there's a lot of hyperbole around his defensive weakness at the moment. He surely isn't a GOOD defender, but he's a guy you can plan around without too much effort on a team which actually doesn't suck.

[dhsilv2]

Needs to sharpen his instincts on the court. Could be a better playmaker. Could definitely be a better defender with his tools. He's more of a 2nd or 3rd option kind of guy, but he's played mostly on teams which didn't really have a chance to go anywhere and has had frequent availability issues.

I imagine on a team with a strong backline and a real first option, he'd probably look a lot better... and he sure doesn't look bad on offense now anyway.

He honestly should be a super 6th man. I don’t think your team will be good if he is your 2nd or 3rd option. He is can drive, shoot, and pass better than most players in his position.

He will need to be a guy you hide on defense on a quality defending team. I just wouldn’t want him on the court in the last 5 mins in a close game because I don’t trust him on the defensive side of the floor. Coach would have to do offense/ defense substitutes with him.

It has actually been nice to see him be as good as he has been on the offensive side of ball. When he was drafted, I never thought he would be as good as he has been.

It's 2025, starting guys who just can't play defense doesn't work. As much as you can't hide bad offensive players today, you really can't hide bad wings in the modern game. So agree 100%. He really needs to be a 6th man. Though I'm not sure he's even a "super" version of that.