winsomme2 wrote:flintsky21 wrote:Dogen wrote:
What does that even mean? Not a good comparison -- yeah, anyone can buy a lotto ticket.
Amari was the 46th pick in the draft. Chances are... odds are... yes, he ultimately won't pan out in the NBA, like most 46th picks.
But these guys are here primarily to learn how to play their role and the team's system and plays.
Williams might end up as a reserve player in a few years. Nobody expects a savior here. But can he be good? Of course, but it's not gonna be like randomly buying a powerball ticket. It takes time.
I would've given Brad a pass on that, but he traded down from the 32nd pick. Can't keep giving Brad the benefit of the doubt for late 2nd rounders not working out when he regularly trades down or out from higher draft positions.
Yeah the reason you don't trade down from 32 to 46 is because 46 is less likely to be a good player.
Also, you can't just call 46 a lotto ticket. That totally discounts scouting. Some teams are really good at scouting these guys. I mean look at Brooks Branhizer.
Did anyone even remotely have this guy on their radar? That's not just luck. It's good scouting too.
I was very well aware of Brooks Barnhizer and I'm sure all 30 teams were as well.
Good player but old (23 yrs old) he was exposed a bit during the game vs Rutgers where Ace (who overall wasn't even that good this season) made him look silly..Barnhizer physically/athletically could not keep up with Ace or defend him in space. Ace made Barnhizer look like a random men's league player. Also, Barnhizer had a season-ending foot injury.
I had him ranked 71st on my final big board.
I'm not really sure what Barnhizer has to do with anything here. Did he have a good summer league game or something? Summer League means very little in the grand scheme of things. It's a poor barometer for determining how good these guys would be in a real NBA game.
This seems to be an example of people putting way too much emphasis on summer league.
Barnhizer has accomplished literally nothing at the NBA level yet so he's not very relevant to the discussion.
Picks in the 46-60 range are absolutely a lottery ticket. Most of them do not pan out.
Yes, obviously picks in the 32-45 range have a slightly higher hit rate. But even then, the hit rate in that range overall is very low..probably not much higher than the hit rate of a pick at 46 so it makes more sense to trade back, pick up 3 additional 2nd rounders (these picks are lottery tickets so by acquiring 3 additional 2nd rounders you increase your chances of winning the lottery by having 3 extra lottery tickets).
Not to mention a pick at 32 (when we already had pick 28)..that's 2 guys you're drafting in the top 32 which is more $..you can pay a guy much less $ who you draft at 46 than you can the guy drafted at 32.
32 is gonna be expecting a guaranteed 4 year rookie contract. Something you're probably not going to want to offer a player with such low odds of that player working out..especially when you're already giving that 4 year contract and guaranteed money to the player you take at 28.
Not to mention you also have Walsh, Scheierman and JD on the roster..hard to find enough playing time for all of these guys in addition to picks 28 and 32 for them to all actually succeed on your team, especially since we're a team that is trying to win. Sure, this is a bridge year but we still have good players like JB, Hauser, Pritchard, white which makes it hard to give tons of playing time to all of these unproven rookies and it's only a 1 year bridge year.
In 26-27 we'll be back in title contention so then what? You give playing time to all these young guys this year but then in 26-27 when we're back in title contention you can't afford to play tons of young players so if you too many young players who you drafted really high (like 2 guys picked in the top 32) those are high picks that you don't have playing time for.
Not to mention that since we'll be back in title contention in 26-27, those 3 extra 2nd round picks we picked up, some of those picks can be used as trade chips to acquire a proven vet, like maybe someone who can be the starting C the next time we win a title.
Plus, at the time of the draft, KP, Luke and Al were all still on our team. We hadn't lose any of them yet. So at the time, it didn't seem like as big of a need for another C so why not trade back, get more assets and draft a big at 46, rather than drafting a big at 32 and take the chance that you don't even really have the playing time to offer that guy - then you're taking a guy really high but setting him up for failure with no playing time to offer. Much less risk in taking that big at 46..
Lastly, I don't know who you wanted to pick at 32? Raynaud or Kalkbrenner? Amari has a case as being the better prospect than both of them. Raynaud can't defend. He's a big guy who can kind of shoot, but what if the shooting doesn't really translate that much? Then he's basically unplayable.
Kalkbrenner is possibly the slowest, least athletic player in this draft. He also lacks strength to be able to battle in the paint with opposing bigs. He's not a great passer either and the C's usually prefer bigs who can pass. He can kind of shoot but he was a 5 yr college player who only shot it during hsi 5th year and it was on low volume.