Wizenheimer wrote:zzaj wrote:Wizenheimer wrote:
you're in a dark dark place if you're turning to me for 'vision'
the only reason for Portland to have any cap-space was to get Avdija signed to an extension. And that was always an extremely remote possibility that has been eliminated by Dame's deal
the tax line as a demilitarized zone has been an artifact of the Jody/Bert/Vulcan era. The tax-line--->1st apron is still probably a dead zone until, at least, there is a new owner who can approve or veto that transgression
the only effective flexibility the Blazer have is the margin under the tax line, We've just seen the Dame contract as a symbol of that flexibility. Without the 12.8M in extra margin engineered by Ayton's buyout and subsequent signing by the Lakers, it's almost certain Portland would not have signed Dame
This was my main concern with the Lillard signing--that it impacts Deni's ability to resign, and I'm still a little unclear on exactly what that impact is.
I know you, me and a couple of others have been vocal about how the Blazers are in between a rock and a hard place in terms of resigning Deni...if you don't mind, would you clarify a bit more what you mean by "...has been eliminated by Dame's deal"?
ok...looking at Portland's cap/payroll situation, the only semi-legitimate shot at cap-space was going to be 2026-27
keep in mind that the projected salary cap that season is around 165M. And here is a 1st glance at portland's payroll:
Jrue Holiday $34,800,000
Jerami Grant $34,206,898
Deni Avdija $13,125,000
Scoot Henderson $13,585,523
Donovan Clingan $7,519,920
Yang Hansen $4,643,520
Kris Murray $5,315,004
Toumani Camara $2,406,205
Team Totals $115,870,102
so call it 116M for simple math. BUT, what's missing there is Sharpe. Now, Sharpe's cap-hold is 25.2M. Let's say Portland keeps him at that cap-hold level because they intend to re-sign him for more salary than that. As a maneuver, that would be effective unless Sharpe gets a 35M/year offer sheet. But let's ignore that possibility for a moment
so, with Sharpe the Blazers are now at 141M. lets say they don't make the playoffs next season and then use their draft pick to add a 5M contract. Blazers are now at 146M. But that's only for 10 players so Portland would have at least 2 roster charges adding 3M more. So, Portland has 149M in cap-charges giving them 16M in cap-space. If they don't pick up the option for Murray (October deadline), they could delete 5.3M in salary but they accrue another 1.5M roster charge and then have about 20M in space.
but now, with Dame's 14M, Portland is left with 6M in space which is essentially nothing. And it's possible they plan on re-signing Thybulle anyway
but look at that list and notice Camara at 2.4M. We've already been talking Camara signing an extension that would put him at 21M that season, effectively wiping out any Portland cap-space. And, if Camara plays for that option, then he's UFA in 2026...and uh oh. Blazers can decline that team option and then offer Camara a QO that would be around 2M. But if Camara signed an offer sheet for 25M ist year, that would immediately count against Portland's cap and any space would be kaput. And it's really risky letting Camara become either UFA or RFA
anyway, going back to the way the world was before Dame signed, say the Blazers trade that draft pick next season for a future pick. And they ended up with, for example, 23M in cap-space. I've been told they could then take that 23M and add it to Avdija's 12M salary in 2027-28, bringing him up to 35M that season. And that would be the base salary for an extension. I think it would be limited to three years. Maybe, 36M/year would have been enough to get him to sign. I'm skeptical because the max that season for a player with 7 years of experience is 60M
anyway, that all water under the bridge after the Dame signing
Thank you for the cogent answer…
What I gather is that effectively signing Lillard makes it next to impossible for the Blazers to reasonably sign Deni.
If this is the case, and the Blazers aren’t able to free up money before, then signing Lillard may end up being a massive “feel good” mistake.