Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[League Circles]

The real question is which side will cave first and make a move towards a compromise. I predict it will be the Bulls and it won't be until September. I think both sides know that the Bulls frankly have more to lose by him playing on the QO. But who knows, if both sides are willing to wait there could be some late theatrics with a reasonable deal struck from a cold stalemate. Both sides know the Bulls have more to lose by him playing on the QO, but he has to make the move to actually accept the QO, and if he waits under the assumption the Bulls will offer last minute, and the clock runs out in a game of chicken with nobody moving, then the Bulls are truly in the driver's seat cause he's still a RFA but can't play unless he signs an offer sheet or agrees to whatever the Bulls offer. I think the Bulls will come up by like 5 million with a few days or weeks left before the deadline, and Giddey will agree. He'll probably get a PO for year 5.

[Infinity2152]

Hard to draw any conclusions without info of what kinds of offers guys turned down.

Let's say Giddey is being offered double the QO currently from the Bulls in the first year of a deal, roughly 5 year, 125 as a quick estimate.

If he plays on the QO and has a serious injury, he genuinely may miss out on virtually all future earnings, so let's say he loses 110 million dollars.

On the plus side, he could be a legit max guy in a year on a 4 year deal with a new team, which combined with the QO, would be about 186 mil over the 5 years.

So his upside is probably making about an extra 60 million over 5 years over the 125 we're probably roughly offering, and his downside if he takes the QO and has a serious injury is probably losing about 110 of the 125.

If I were him I'd take the Bulls offer last minute instead of the QO.

Of course, he already has many millions of dollars that I don't, so it wouldn't be reckless for him to gamble on himself. I think most would also agree that a nearly career ending injury is probably a fair amount less likely than becoming a max guy.

I think the last point is the most critical. Regardless of our personal risk tolerance, the odds of career ending injury vs the odds of him getting more than $22 mill as a UFA next summer would favor Giddey. When you already have $50+ mill, you can afford to take more chances. Don't think we can just assume he won't take the QO, that's all. This is exactly why there is a qualifying offer in the first place.

Like if this was agent's school, this would be the textbook example for when you should advise your client to take the QO. Career ending injury possibility has always existed for every player for every contract. Sounds like guys are saying it's never in a player's best interest to take the QO, they'll never win.

Not talking about taking the QO on a whim or being inflexible. Rumors are they're $8-$10/yr mill apart. That's $40-$50 mill on a five year contract. If that's not a large enough gap to take the QO, what is?

He has that career ending injury after pocketing another $11 mill. Add in the shoe deals, damn I've only made $70 mill by 23? What am I going to do to make money? Uh, invest and be rich and retired for life?

Your numbers inflated because that won't take in to account taxes and agent's fees. He already will have spent substantial money too (he has several very nice cars for example).

But taxes and agent fees will come off of the contract he signs up for as well, so that goes both ways. Your general logic is sound in that his combination of wealth, age, current market factors, past pedigree of play, downside risk and size of gap in negotiations make the QO a viable choice if the Bulls don't come correct to him.

Of course that doesn't mean the Bulls just need to acquiesce to him, but the leverage is not all Chicago's, and Giddey leaving would be bad for the Bulls. I'd go as far as saying that the risk Chicago faces is worse than Giddey.

If a deal isn't reached because Chicago is lowballing considerably (We know Giddey is asking for 30m, which is not an extreme number, though it is too rich for some), then next season Giddey will have a good probability of earning more money, a good probability of earning similar money, a small probability of earning less money and a much smaller probability of his entire career being derailed by career altering injury.

If a deal isn't reached, then next season Chicago has a good probability of paying Giddey more money, a smaller probability of paying him similar money, an even smaller probability of paying him less money and likely the biggest slice of probability is him leaving for nothing.

I agree. I'm just throwing round numbers, if he's smart a good portion of that is invested, not just sitting as cash, so that could be making him a ton too. I'm jut saying in real life, it sounds great to have $150 mill vs $70 mill. How big a deal is it really practically speaking? You can't get the submarine you wanted with only even $50-$60 mill in growing capital at 23 year? He could probably retire, start a podcast and make a half mill to a mill a year. Most of these players by the time they retire have spent half to the majority of their money anyway.

[othawhitemeat]

Maybe, they are waiting on Kuminga before Giddey? Doubtful, but just a thought

[DrModesty]

I think the last point is the most critical. Regardless of our personal risk tolerance, the odds of career ending injury vs the odds of him getting more than $22 mill as a UFA next summer would favor Giddey. When you already have $50+ mill, you can afford to take more chances. Don't think we can just assume he won't take the QO, that's all. This is exactly why there is a qualifying offer in the first place.

Like if this was agent's school, this would be the textbook example for when you should advise your client to take the QO. Career ending injury possibility has always existed for every player for every contract. Sounds like guys are saying it's never in a player's best interest to take the QO, they'll never win.

Not talking about taking the QO on a whim or being inflexible. Rumors are they're $8-$10/yr mill apart. That's $40-$50 mill on a five year contract. If that's not a large enough gap to take the QO, what is?

He has that career ending injury after pocketing another $11 mill. Add in the shoe deals, damn I've only made $70 mill by 23? What am I going to do to make money? Uh, invest and be rich and retired for life?

Your numbers inflated because that won't take in to account taxes and agent's fees. He already will have spent substantial money too (he has several very nice cars for example).

But taxes and agent fees will come off of the contract he signs up for as well, so that goes both ways. Your general logic is sound in that his combination of wealth, age, current market factors, past pedigree of play, downside risk and size of gap in negotiations make the QO a viable choice if the Bulls don't come correct to him.

Of course that doesn't mean the Bulls just need to acquiesce to him, but the leverage is not all Chicago's, and Giddey leaving would be bad for the Bulls. I'd go as far as saying that the risk Chicago faces is worse than Giddey.

If a deal isn't reached because Chicago is lowballing considerably (We know Giddey is asking for 30m, which is not an extreme number, though it is too rich for some), then next season Giddey will have a good probability of earning more money, a good probability of earning similar money, a small probability of earning less money and a much smaller probability of his entire career being derailed by career altering injury.

If a deal isn't reached, then next season Chicago has a good probability of paying Giddey more money, a smaller probability of paying him similar money, an even smaller probability of paying him less money and likely the biggest slice of probability is him leaving for nothing.

I agree. I'm just throwing round numbers, if he's smart a good portion of that is invested, not just sitting as cash, so that could be making him a ton too. I'm jut saying in real life, it sounds great to have $150 mill vs $70 mill. How big a deal is it really practically speaking? You can't get the submarine you wanted with only even $50-$60 mill in growing capital at 23 year? He could probably retire, start a podcast and make a half mill to a mill a year. Most of these players by the time they retire have spent half to the majority of their money anyway.

Yeah I finished a post earlier in the thread saying that your first 10 million matters a lot more than your second 100 million. We are on the same page.

[Infinity2152]

Your numbers inflated because that won't take in to account taxes and agent's fees. He already will have spent substantial money too (he has several very nice cars for example).

But taxes and agent fees will come off of the contract he signs up for as well, so that goes both ways. Your general logic is sound in that his combination of wealth, age, current market factors, past pedigree of play, downside risk and size of gap in negotiations make the QO a viable choice if the Bulls don't come correct to him.

Of course that doesn't mean the Bulls just need to acquiesce to him, but the leverage is not all Chicago's, and Giddey leaving would be bad for the Bulls. I'd go as far as saying that the risk Chicago faces is worse than Giddey.

If a deal isn't reached because Chicago is lowballing considerably (We know Giddey is asking for 30m, which is not an extreme number, though it is too rich for some), then next season Giddey will have a good probability of earning more money, a good probability of earning similar money, a small probability of earning less money and a much smaller probability of his entire career being derailed by career altering injury.

If a deal isn't reached, then next season Chicago has a good probability of paying Giddey more money, a smaller probability of paying him similar money, an even smaller probability of paying him less money and likely the biggest slice of probability is him leaving for nothing.

I agree. I'm just throwing round numbers, if he's smart a good portion of that is invested, not just sitting as cash, so that could be making him a ton too. I'm jut saying in real life, it sounds great to have $150 mill vs $70 mill. How big a deal is it really practically speaking? You can't get the submarine you wanted with only even $50-$60 mill in growing capital at 23 year? He could probably retire, start a podcast and make a half mill to a mill a year. Most of these players by the time they retire have spent half to the majority of their money anyway.

Yeah I finished a post earlier in the thread saying that your first 10 million matters a lot more than your second 100 million. We are on the same page.

Bet that Puma contract is banging for him to take him from Nike. He hasn't even gotten that money yet. They paid him so much, he signed a confidentiality agreement not to release the details, lmao! You can't find them anywhere. He's the global ambassador for the US and Australia.

I'll say this too. I think organizations should always be expected to be more professional and willing to compromise than players. Not talking about the level of compromise, the willingness to negotiate. I don't judge my kids or expect them to behave at the standards I'd hold for myself. Giddey's 22 and who knows what his agent is on, didn't he fire his agent a couple of years ago? AK runs a multi-billion dollar NBA team. I really don't want this to drag out, every day the chance for something stupid like a team clearing cap space or Giddey taking the QO is looming.

Have a friend who runs a music label. Always complaining about the artists being late, getting them to sessions. I told him "That's why they need you and that's what you're here for. So they don't have to be professional. They're the talent"

I know I'm old enough to lose count of how many bad decisions I made at 22.

[coldfish]

Maybe, they are waiting on Kuminga before Giddey? Doubtful, but just a thought

There is no pressure for the Bulls right now. No one has capspace. They will want a deal in place before training camp but if it happens the day before, that's fine with Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if this drags out. Apparently AKME took a negotiating 101 class in the past 12 months.

[kodo]

Question for the room. What do you think the actual numbers are for players having career ending injuries in their first 5 years, particularly Giddey's age? Lillard's expected back, Kyrie, Tatum, and they're much older. After watching Ball, PG13, Simmons, Rose come back what do you think the actual odds are Giddey would suffer a literal career ending injury next year, based on previous numbers of players in the league. Way less than 1% have a career ending injury in their first 5 years?

People keep bringing up he could have a career ending injury. For every 100 players playing, 60 get drafted each year, how many will have a career ending injury in year 5? One? Three? Five? Players who didn't come into the league with injury concerns at all?

Also people who are in the NBA don't heed the injury risks, it's survivorship bias. It's like meeting someone who made their entire wealth by gambling, and then concluding that gambler will never make a bet because casinos or sports betting have the odds set so the gamblers eventually lose. If the person paid attention to the logic of that they never would have bet their entire wealth on gambling.

The odds of 1 injury derailing an entire career plan existed at age 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, etc.. And I and probably all of us have met those guys who were on a career NBA track, had an ACL as a senior in HS and now work as a security guard at a mall or something.

The NBA is survivorship bias of people who took irrational risks in the first place. At some point you don't go to Wallstreetbets and give them all the factual and logical reasons why they should all be just putting on their investments into an index fund.

[Stratmaster]

Maybe, they are waiting on Kuminga before Giddey? Doubtful, but just a thought

There is no pressure for the Bulls right now. No one has capspace. They will want a deal in place before training camp but if it happens the day before, that's fine with Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if this drags out. Apparently AKME took a negotiating 101 class in the past 12 months.

Only if you believe in distributive win/lose negotiations and that delaying negotiations is an effective tactic. You are right. This is a scenario where that could work in the Bulls favor. But is not a general trademark of a good negotiator when dealing with hiring/personnel matters. If you're buying a new car... sure.

[Stratmaster]

Maybe, they are waiting on Kuminga before Giddey? Doubtful, but just a thought

There is no pressure for the Bulls right now. No one has capspace. They will want a deal in place before training camp but if it happens the day before, that's fine with Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if this drags out. Apparently AKME took a negotiating 101 class in the past 12 months.

If this is really the case, and the Bulls are stalling and not negotiating in good faith, Giddey's agent should respond with a deadline. "If we do not have an agreement in the next 30 days my client will be signing your qualifying offer". Does anyone think the Bulls want Giddey playing under the QO this season? That would be the Bulls worst case scenario.

[nomorezorro]

advancing the deadline doesn't help giddey any. he does not want to be playing on the qualifying offer either. he wants to get paid a lot of money

[nomorezorro]

also not increasing your offer just because the other side wants more is not a failure to negotiate in good faith

[Stratmaster]

advancing the deadline doesn't help giddey any. he does not want to be playing on the qualifying offer either. he wants to get paid a lot of money

Obviously it does. It forces the Bulls hand. Not only do they not want that outcome, but they are in an optics heavy business. If a player cuts off negotiations and signs the QO, what message does that send to every other player in the league about trying to negotiate with the Bulls. How will the fan base react when they best player states the team isn't negotiating in good faith? Everyone keeps saying Giddey has no leverage. That is about his only option for creating leverage.

[Stratmaster]

also not increasing your offer just because the other side wants more is not a failure to negotiate in good faith

My comment was in response to a comment about the Bulls stalling until the last minute. I didn't say anything about a dollar amount. Context and comprehension are important to conversations and debates.

[coldfish]

Maybe, they are waiting on Kuminga before Giddey? Doubtful, but just a thought

There is no pressure for the Bulls right now. No one has capspace. They will want a deal in place before training camp but if it happens the day before, that's fine with Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if this drags out. Apparently AKME took a negotiating 101 class in the past 12 months.

Only if you believe in distributive win/lose negotiations and that delaying negotiations is an effective tactic. You are right. This is a scenario where that could work in the Bulls favor. But is not a general trademark of a good negotiator when dealing with hiring/personnel matters. If you're buying a new car... sure.

Historically, a lot of RFA deals get done right before camp. I didn't just pull that out of my rear. This stuff is typical for negotiations and I'm sure that Giddey's agent is threatening the QO, which is also typical.

[Stratmaster]

There is no pressure for the Bulls right now. No one has capspace. They will want a deal in place before training camp but if it happens the day before, that's fine with Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if this drags out. Apparently AKME took a negotiating 101 class in the past 12 months.

Only if you believe in distributive win/lose negotiations and that delaying negotiations is an effective tactic. You are right. This is a scenario where that could work in the Bulls favor. But is not a general trademark of a good negotiator when dealing with hiring/personnel matters. If you're buying a new car... sure.

Historically, a lot of RFA deals get done right before camp. I didn't just pull that out of my rear. This stuff is typical for negotiations and I'm sure that Giddey's agent is threatening the QO, which is also typical.

There are many different reasons for signing right before camp. I was just commenting on the idea that the team purposely delaying or stalling is a quality negotiation tactic.

[nomorezorro]

it's not "stalling" to not move off of what you consider to be a reasonable offer long before the deadline to reach a deal. giddey is also "stalling" if he's not coming down from his asking price, which is completely reasonable, because he has time to hope some material conditions change that alter the market in his favor (someone opens up cap space, kuminga signs for big $$$, etc.)

[League Circles]

Maybe, they are waiting on Kuminga before Giddey? Doubtful, but just a thought

There is no pressure for the Bulls right now. No one has capspace. They will want a deal in place before training camp but if it happens the day before, that's fine with Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if this drags out. Apparently AKME took a negotiating 101 class in the past 12 months.

If this is really the case, and the Bulls are stalling and not negotiating in good faith, Giddey's agent should respond with a deadline. "If we do not have an agreement in the next 30 days my client will be signing your qualifying offer". Does anyone think the Bulls want Giddey playing under the QO this season? That would be the Bulls worst case scenario.

Neither side wants Giddey to play on the QO, but the key is that he must accept it, meaning he has to make the next move. His agent certainly will make such a deadline, but it will likely be later than 30 days from now. I would guess it would be 24 hours before the deadline. Taking the QO could be disastrous for Giddey. Not primarily because of the injury risk, but simply because if he's on the QO, all it takes is the Bulls being under 500 and Jones playing better than Giddey for Giddey's role to change in a way that will really hurt the market for him - possibly being benched.

[sco]

There is no pressure for the Bulls right now. No one has capspace. They will want a deal in place before training camp but if it happens the day before, that's fine with Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if this drags out. Apparently AKME took a negotiating 101 class in the past 12 months.

If this is really the case, and the Bulls are stalling and not negotiating in good faith, Giddey's agent should respond with a deadline. "If we do not have an agreement in the next 30 days my client will be signing your qualifying offer". Does anyone think the Bulls want Giddey playing under the QO this season? That would be the Bulls worst case scenario.

Neither side wants Giddey to play on the QO, but the key is that he must accept it, meaning he has to make the next move. His agent certainly will make such a deadline, but it will likely be later than 30 days from now. I would guess it would be 24 hours before the deadline. Taking the QO could be disastrous for Giddey. Not primarily because of the injury risk, but simply because if he's on the QO, all it takes is the Bulls being under 500 and Jones playing better than Giddey for Giddey's role to change in a way that will really hurt the market for him - possibly being benched.

I expect that his agent is doing the right thing to just wait and see if some other team decides to enter the mix and sign him to an offer sheet higher than what the Bulls are offering. I think the Bulls are being "good guys" and giving him that chance without having their offer drop after X days.

[Red Larrivee]

The Bulls are offering a number closer to 20 than 30. As long as they're doing that, then it's not negotiating in bad faith.

There's clearly incentive for both sides to get a deal done. Also, there doesn't appear to be any hard feelings over everything so far. Everything feels very normal.

[nomorezorro]

ultimately, i think a lot of posters on this board are more anxious about these negotiations than either party who is actually involved in the negotiations