mathgeek wrote:You should change your title to ask which non all star player takes us to the next level not a contender.
That would be a more manageable concept, for sure. As it stands, the answer to the OP is just "no one."
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mathgeek wrote:You should change your title to ask which non all star player takes us to the next level not a contender.
tsherkin wrote:StopitLeo wrote:For me it's not about roster balance. It is about top end talent. It's almost impossible to be a contender without an MVP-level player or multiple All-NBA & All-Star level players on the roster. You're not finding an MVP-level player who hasn't won All-League awards.
Not unless you catch them on the upswing, like Shai in LAC, or in his first couple OKC seasons. He was a 24/5/6 guy for a couple seasons before he even made an All-Star team, remember. And then he blew the hell up into a total monster.
But yes, it's true. In the three-point era, there are basically only Detroit teams in various decades which have won titles without an MVP-level talent. And even then, Ben Wallace was a many-time DPOY, All-D, even All-NBA 2nd Team in the title season. 2nd in the DPOY vote that year, 7th in the MVP vote, an All-Star, etc, etc. And of course the earlier Pistons had Isiah and others. Beyond that? Maybe 2024 Boston? Tatum's All-League, just not really MVP-level, particularly come the playoffs.
Magic/Kareem, Bird, Doctor J and Moses, Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan, Shaq/Kobe, Wade (even though he never won the MVP), KG/Pierce/Ray (past prime, but still, authoring one of the greatest defenses we've seen), Kobe again, Dirk, Lebron in Miami, breakout Steph, Lebron in Cleveland, Steph and KD, Kawhi, Lebron in LA, Giannis, older Steph without KD, Jokic. And then Shai.
Like, 4 teams in over 4.5 decades sells hard the idea that you need a superstar to win, and guys who are playing at MVP level are All-League players during that time.
What we are missing is indeed that top-end talent. We aren't going to ensemble our way to a title, we need to find our way to a transaction which acquires us that MVP-level player somehow if that's the end goal.
oldncreaky wrote:Strongly agree. I'd add one point though: many of these eventual champions were good, well-balanced teams -- often for multiple seasons -- that eventually found a way to add a final piece and/or select a later pick that eventually develops into a #1 option. 2019 Raptors, for sure, but also: 1983 Sixers, 1999 Spurs (?), 2006 Heat, 2011 Mavs, 2015 Warriors, 2021 Bucks, 2023 Nuggets, 2024 Boston.
I'll add a second point: the number of teams that tanked to get a high pick, built around a few high lotto picks, and eventually flamed out . . . is a bold long list. Just look at the standings for almost any season in the previous decade and you can identify 2-4 teams that tried this approach, and failed. So the reality is that waiting around for the miracle to come through the draft in the form of a high pick that "pops" on his rookie contract to be a championship level #1 is a very low-odds bet.
In the meantime, what should you do? Having a very good and well-balanced team that is a step or trade away from the championship seems to me more plausible path forward than being a middling team, or tearing it down for a high pick in the current days of flattened lottery odds.
tsherkin wrote:MoneyBall wrote:Franz Wagner.
100% does not make us a contender.
Still developing as a playmaker. Forgot entirely how to shoot the 3 these past two seasons. Has authored a single season of league-average or better efficiency. Topped out his impact stats in a 60-game season this past year, and was well below any kind of meaningful level (impact signals not meaningfully better than 2023 Scottie).
He's an intriguing player, but Orlando was so horrifically starved for offense and he couldn't come through and help them be better than the FOUTH-WORST OFFENSE IN THE LEAGUE.
If he was a tipping-point player, that's not what we would have seen.
MoneyBall wrote:That said, just for the fun of it, I think Franz could easily become an All-Star this year given his proven track record of progress.
tsherkin wrote:oldncreaky wrote:In the meantime, what should you do? Having a very good and well-balanced team that is a step or trade away from the championship seems to me more plausible path forward than being a middling team, or tearing it down for a high pick in the current days of flattened lottery odds.
Not-sucking is, at least to me, infinitely more preferable than pulling a Washington/Charlotte, that's for sure.
StopitLeo wrote:I think it's worth noting how rarely the MVP-level player leading these teams was projected to be that good when drafted.
To your last point(s), I think fans under-appreciate the importance of a winning culture, which perennial lottery teams cannot develop. Unless you draft a generational talent like LeBron—who immediately changes your team culture—you need time to develop it by becoming a winning team before you can be a contending team. The DeRozan-Lowry team wasn't a contending team but they were a winning team like all the teams that you and @oldncreaky listed who eventually won championships, setting the stage for that magical 2019 with Kawhi.
Who's to say Ingram doesn't have that in him? I won't put a ceiling on player improvement after seeing firsthand what Pascal Siakam has become.
tsherkin wrote:StopitLeo wrote:Who's to say Ingram doesn't have that in him? I won't put a ceiling on player improvement after seeing firsthand what Pascal Siakam has become.
Let's be real, he's a decade in and this is his age-28 season: we know who he is at this point. Pascal was showing his signs of improvement pretty early on, and now he's had the advantage of playing alongside Hali for a bit, which makes life easier for everyone. I don't think we're going to see some sudden and miraculous change in BI, but he WILL be a wonderful addition when he does play for us, and should make everyone else's lives much easier with the attention he'll garner. And I will be especially thrilled if he looks like his All-Star self, but will be quite content if he's "just" his 20/5/5 on lgav efficiency self.
I'm excited to watch him play for us, and for what impact he'll bring.
StopitLeo wrote:You may be right, but we can hopeI think there is no question he's an All-Star level player when healthy.
It has also felt like we were really trying to force Scottie into being a primary scoring option when that isn't in his DNA. This has the potential to be an ideal "change of scenery" situation for Ingram.