Discussing Other Teams' Moves - Part 8

[I_Like_Dirt]

Their biggest problem is that Scoot is ass.

Sharpe isn't amazing either but might still be okay. Hansen is a major wild card that might never quite make it but might be extremely good.

[Rafael122]

I think the Pelicans have the worse training staff in recent memory. It puts ours to shame. Queen out 3 months after wrist surgery.

[PaulinVA]

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[tontoz]

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That isn't that surprising actually because he didn't move and had someone passing to him the same way every time.

One day my boss said he could beat me and my buddy Sean in a 3 pt contest and i busted out laughing. He didn't appreciate that. I just played pickup games i never actually worked on my shot so me and Sean went out to practice from the college 3. We took turns shooting 10 at a time standing in the same spot while the other guy passed it back.

I made 29 out of 30 which definitely surprised me but it is easy to get in a groove doing that. I would shoot one and think it was long and it would barely touch the back rim before going in.

I tried to duplicate that at times without someone passing to me and never got close.

[Northwest Roddy]

Portland’s timeline is totally different than Jrue and Dame’s. A mistake on top of a mistake. And Dame was on decline before that horrible injury. It doesn’t make any sense. Do they not realize how strong the West is now.

At least the Big Tariff looks good.

Yeah, this is a downright terrible move by Portland. It borders on malpractice.

Lillard was already declining rapidly as a player. His statistical production may not look that bad, but he has become a turnstile on defense. And that was before the Achilles injury and another full year of aging. So now, they are going to pay $15M to a ghost this season. And then they pay $14M and $13M respectively to a diminutive guard coming off Achilles surgery, aged 36 and 37 respectively.

Teams still continue to overrate former stars. Yes, Lillard was awesome in his peak. But that's over. He is not going to be good in 2 years.

It is nice in a way to no longer be the most incompetent laughing stock franchise of the league anymore. Thank you Will Dawkins and thank you other poorly run franchises.

I never believed in the curse of le Boulez. It was just incompetent ownership and inept general managers. We always seemed to pick the wrong player, be one position short, and/or trade our pick for virtually nothing and miss on generational talent (shout out to CCJ who did pound the table for both Steph Curry and Kawhi). Therefore, we must always be grateful for Charlotte. They picked MKG and left us Beal. They took Kon and we got Tre. They helped us in bad times and good.

Dawkins isn't perfect but is a huge improvement on our past. We'll stink for another year, but I believe in our future. And kudos to AFM for recognizing the slang value of Tre Johnson's name!

[TheBlackCzar]

Portland’s timeline is totally different than Jrue and Dame’s. A mistake on top of a mistake. And Dame was on decline before that horrible injury. It doesn’t make any sense. Do they not realize how strong the West is now.

At least the Big Tariff looks good.

Yeah, this is a downright terrible move by Portland. It borders on malpractice.

Lillard was already declining rapidly as a player. His statistical production may not look that bad, but he has become a turnstile on defense. And that was before the Achilles injury and another full year of aging. So now, they are going to pay $15M to a ghost this season. And then they pay $14M and $13M respectively to a diminutive guard coming off Achilles surgery, aged 36 and 37 respectively.

Teams still continue to overrate former stars. Yes, Lillard was awesome in his peak. But that's over. He is not going to be good in 2 years.

NBA is a business first and foremost.... Dame has made Portland considerably more money than he has been paid by them....
Him going back is going to boost ticket sales in seasons they know won't be competitive in a championship sense, is why he was resigned.....
He'll retire a hero and will have generated hundreds of millions in revenue by being a Trailblazer legend...

[nate33]

It is nice in a way to no longer be the most incompetent laughing stock franchise of the league anymore. Thank you Will Dawkins and thank you other poorly run franchises.

I never believed in the curse of le Boulez. It was just incompetent ownership and inept general managers. We always seemed to pick the wrong player, be one position short, and/or trade our pick for virtually nothing and miss on generational talent (shout out to CCJ who did pound the table for both Steph Curry and Kawhi). Therefore, we must always be grateful for Charlotte. They picked MKG and left us Beal. They took Kon and we got Tre. They helped us in bad times and good.

Dawkins isn't perfect but is a huge improvement on our past. We'll stink for another year, but I believe in our future. And kudos to AFM for recognizing the slang value of Tre Johnson's name!

Agreed.

It remains to be seen whether Dawkins will be a genuinely great GM, but at least he doesn't shoot himself in the foot on a consistent basis. He is clearly competent. He's not going to waste assets or opportunities.

[PaulinVA]

I never believed in the curse of le Boulez. It was just incompetent ownership and inept general managers. We always seemed to pick the wrong player, be one position short, and/or trade our pick for virtually nothing and miss on generational talent (shout out to CCJ who did pound the table for both Steph Curry and Kawhi). Therefore, we must always be grateful for Charlotte. They picked MKG and left us Beal. They took Kon and we got Tre. They helped us in bad times and good.

Dawkins isn't perfect but is a huge improvement on our past. We'll stink for another year, but I believe in our future. And kudos to AFM for recognizing the slang value of Tre Johnson's name!

Just for fun, can a case be made that we'd have been better off taking MKG than having Beal fall to us? By this I mean, wouldn't it have forced us to rebuild even sooner rather than to drag the Beal experiment out for so long, with so much inflexibility, for so much money?

[payitforward]

Dawkins isn't perfect...

Nobody's perfect, of course not, but I can't come up with a "bad" move by this FO yet.

We can argue about the Deni trade, but Bub's clearly a high-value prospect, & there's more to come. For the rest, it's been one solid move after another -- right back to the Beal trade, about which many here complained but wch looks brilliant in retrospect.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Just for fun, can a case be made that we'd have been better off taking MKG than having Beal fall to us? By this I mean, wouldn't it have forced us to rebuild even sooner rather than to drag the Beal experiment out for so long, with so much inflexibility, for so much money?

You can make a case for a lot of stuff but it's not always a good case. There is an idea among a fair few fans for every team that building a championship team should be dealt with like a dynasty-mode video game where you just reset and keep tanking until you have the stars that will win it all and if it doesn't work you strip it down and start over. In reality that's not a thing that happens ever because there are other factors like fans that go to games, ownership, players, the league, etc. and tanking generally gets you to a ~.500 team rather than an actual contender and it's what you do once you have that middling team that matters. The last top 3 player that won a championship with the team that drafted them (not changing teams and coming back) as the best player on the team was Tim Duncan roughly 30 years ago. Since him, Kyrie Irving was the best top 3 player to win with the team that drafted him.

From that point you need to beat the league without tipping the odds of the lottery in your favour, be by trading a star for longer term value before any tank years (see OKC who traded Paul George for SGA, the picks for Jalen Williams, etc. and it's still giving with Sorber), trading picks for a situational star like the Raptors (which also involved drafting very well with later picks including a multiple time all-NBA player), or drafting an allstar/MVP from the mid to late lottery or later like the Bucks, Nuggets, Warriors, etc. You can get to middling any way you want - doesn't have to be tanking but tanking can help with timeliness a bit - but it's how you punch out of that middling area that is honestly harder than tanking.

The Wizards have historically been extremely bad at that kind of thing, trading uncertainty for low-end certainty because of poorer scouting both in the draft and in trades for existing players. They're not alone, and that's where Dawkins is really untested but he seems reasonable at least so far.

[doclinkin]

The last top 3 player that won a championship with the team that drafted them (not changing teams and coming back) as the best player on the team was Tim Duncan roughly 30 years ago.

Tatum and Brown disagree.

[dckingsfan]

It is nice in a way to no longer be the most incompetent laughing stock franchise of the league anymore. Thank you Will Dawkins and thank you other poorly run franchises.

I never believed in the curse of le Boulez. It was just incompetent ownership and inept general managers. We always seemed to pick the wrong player, be one position short, and/or trade our pick for virtually nothing and miss on generational talent (shout out to CCJ who did pound the table for both Steph Curry and Kawhi). Therefore, we must always be grateful for Charlotte. They picked MKG and left us Beal. They took Kon and we got Tre. They helped us in bad times and good.

Dawkins isn't perfect but is a huge improvement on our past. We'll stink for another year, but I believe in our future. And kudos to AFM for recognizing the slang value of Tre Johnson's name!

Agreed.

It remains to be seen whether Dawkins will be a genuinely great GM, but at least he doesn't shoot himself in the foot on a consistent basis. He is clearly competent. He's not going to waste assets or opportunities.

All this. He has been solid. More good moves than sub-optimal moves and "mostly" he has been able to move on quickly from the sub-optimal moves. And he hasn't had a true stinker and he did do the amazing Beal trade.

Either way, this is n-game theory and you care competing against 29 other teams. Add luck of the lottery, injuries, etc. and it won't be "simple".

Right now, I can see a pathway to get in the playoffs consistently. But there are also headwinds on what he is doing as well...

[doclinkin]

You can make a case for a lot of stuff but it's not always a good case. There is an idea among a fair few fans for every team that building a championship team should be dealt with like a dynasty-mode video game where you just reset and keep tanking until you have the stars that will win it all and if it doesn't work you strip it down and start over.

…

The last top 3 player that won a championship with the team that drafted them (not changing teams and coming back) as the best player on the team was Tim Duncan roughly 30 years ago. Since him, Kyrie Irving was the best top 3 player to win with the team that drafted him.

From that point you need to beat the league without tipping the odds of the lottery in your favour,
…
You can get to middling any way you want - doesn't have to be tanking but tanking can help with timeliness a bit - but it's how you punch out of that middling area that is honestly harder than tanking.

In more depth. I’d say we’ve been hunting for a Tatum and Brown situation. We want high picks as a core to build around. Whether by our own tanking or outright robbery of teams like the Suns.

Now to make your point for you, the Celts core weren’t acquired by tanking. But by picks stolen from another team who overrated their own future. That seems to be what we are trying to do. We hope to build a base of talent by shipping out unproductive veterans. Add a foundation of talent through our own drafts picks. Then borrow from other teams futures by cashing in on their desperation to either win now. Or dodge penalties.

That seems to position us to sustain winning and add talent later on when our youth matures.

A team like the Rockets is a model where tanking provided the resources necessary to trade their way to success. Potentially. That is you draft a mob of young talented players who don’t yet know how to win. Add key veterans in free agency. Then of that squad of young talent you can trade out one or two who show more promise than production for a vet that may take you over the top.

The Celts likewise built their championship out of high picks (not their own) then key vets as the core picks hit their prime. The trick I guess is timing it so you ink your best players to advantageous deals before they break out. A la the W’s with the early-injured Curry.

We are following part of the OKC model. Trading for undervalued young players like Whitmore. AJJ. Adding talent in the draft. Relentlessly trading for extra picks. Drafting a foundation both with tanking and other teams picks. Ok Poole didn’t turn into SGA for us. But the theory’s the same.

And we tend to trade then get a better return later for the same player. I think we get better value for Whitmore than the Rockets did. Either in in court production or eventual trade.

The Dawkins wrinkle on the OKC model is that he likes to upcycle 2nd round picks into 1st rounders or to move up the draft ladder to get a guy their scouts like. This team fetishizes 1st round picks.The higher the better. They’ll get them by tanking. By shipping vets. By packaging 2nds. By swaps. Any way they can acquire them they’ll do so.

With that model you can’t help but stumble into a surprising talent. If you build the leagues best scouting and development program you should be able to grow your own stars. And as they mature, when you have the guys to build around, you can package surplus talent for the right vets that fit.

We are nowhere near the point where we have to worry about punching our way out of middling though. I think by that time we are we will also begin cashing in on the added high draft picks from other teams so that we needn’t flame out with a couple years of strong performances then crash under our own weight. Instead we are set up to be constantly rebuilding even if we start winning. That’s the part that looks visionary to me.

[Kanyewest]

Portland’s timeline is totally different than Jrue and Dame’s. A mistake on top of a mistake. And Dame was on decline before that horrible injury. It doesn’t make any sense. Do they not realize how strong the West is now.

At least the Big Tariff looks good.

Yeah, this is a downright terrible move by Portland. It borders on malpractice.

Lillard was already declining rapidly as a player. His statistical production may not look that bad, but he has become a turnstile on defense. And that was before the Achilles injury and another full year of aging. So now, they are going to pay $15M to a ghost this season. And then they pay $14M and $13M respectively to a diminutive guard coming off Achilles surgery, aged 36 and 37 respectively.

Teams still continue to overrate former stars. Yes, Lillard was awesome in his peak. But that's over. He is not going to be good in 2 years.

It seems a bit similar to Klay Thompson's salary - so in the best case scenario- it is similar to what other teams are doing and perhaps the Blazers can trade him to another team if he recovers. He's similar to what Corey Kispert is making with the Wizards who is also a poor defender- Blazers may be ignoring the age and think that Lillard's upside is higher . Also wonder if the Blazers do not have to pay Lillard if he indeed shuts it down in his last season although they won't have the cap space to operate with. Perhaps the Blazers are also trying to operate in a way similar to the Lakers when they extended Kobe in saying they take care of their veterans, a stark contrast to how they handled Bill Walton.

But yeah, Blazers still appear to be a long way from competing significantly unless Deni/Yang show another level.

[tontoz]

I would guess that the Blazers signed Dame as a thank you and to make sure he retires as a Blazer. I seriously doubt they are expecting any actual production from him.

[I_Like_Dirt]

We are nowhere near the point where we have to worry about punching our way out of middling though. I think by that time we are we will also begin cashing in on the added high draft picks from other teams so that we needn’t flame out with a couple years of strong performances then crash under our own weight. Instead we are set up to be constantly rebuilding even if we start winning. That’s the part that looks visionary to me.

I'd argue that most teams are set up for constant rebuilding is the thing. If you have even a moderately okay team you probably have 7 or 8 guys on the roster you're just good with keeping. With 2 picks per year, that's roughly 6 or 7 rookie contracts on the roster at any point.

There isn't necessarily much room for flyer picks and if you make them you need to be willing to cut them early - see what the Thunder just did with Dillon Jones. Switching out 2nds for late helps narrow down the choices that way and even then it very much comes down to the ability to scout consistently, and ideally pick up guys that are more than just 8th men or lower. That's a tough ask.

The other catch here is that the reason regular tanking doesn't generally work is because that other stuff gets in the way and builds up over time. The Wizards are clearly cool with it now but but after 2 or 3 years in the best of cases that patience eventually needs to wear out. The worst thing the team could do is throw away future opportunities to swing out of the middling range just to try to get out of the tanking range in 2 years. The team definitely needs to start hitting fast - I'm at least pretty confident Tre is a very good start there.

You brought up the Rockets and while their tanking was great, the real prize there was Amen Thompson. They dumped Green for a short term flyer and by the time their kids were ready to start maybe trying to win they had to start paying them and couldn't realistically keep them all. Find your guy or two and move on with additional adds after can go a long way but it's much easier said than done.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The last top 3 player that won a championship with the team that drafted them (not changing teams and coming back) as the best player on the team was Tim Duncan roughly 30 years ago.

Tatum and Brown disagree.

I didn't clarify that properly: it should read "the team that drafts them with their own pick they didn't trade for." There are better examples of guys that won rings with teams that traded for picks or teams that lucked into top 3 picks without outright tanking - even (particularly?) amongst busts where you get guys like Darko and Wiseman. Getting a top 3 pick when your team is already middling-ish is completely different because it saves the time and effort of building your team from awful to middling and with rookie and RFA contracts your window is usually only about 6 or so years to show more than middling and time matters.

[dckingsfan]

I would guess that the Blazers signed Dame as a thank you and to make sure he retires as a Blazer. I seriously doubt they are expecting any actual production from him.

I think there were three parts to the transaction. The first part is making the franchise more "sellable" since it is up for sale.

The second part is to reengage with the fan base.

Lastly, I do think he will be able to contribute. Athletes are coming back from Achilles injuries and pretty much go from where they were. Will he play at an all-star level. No. Will he be able to contribute, my guess is yes. But it is a gamble that they can have Dame and Jrue split time at PG. We shall see if that experiment works out.

They have another experiment they are running with as well. They are rolling out Camara, Deni and Grant as their wings with Thybulle and Sharpe coming off the bench and Clingan in the middle. So, I think they will do an Atlanta lite and try to surround their PGs with a defensive rotation.

Now, will it be good enough in the west to jump up into a top 6 seed in two years, I wouldn't bet on it but

I mean you have OKC, Dallas, SAS, Denver (with their nice moves), Minny, LAC and GS all competing for those top 6 slots.

[gesa2]

I have a question for the cap experts. Damian Lillard was bought out of a max salary then signed for just under the MLE. Does he make more than the max now, or is it somehow restricted?

[nate33]

I have a question for the cap experts. Damian Lillard was bought out of a max salary then signed for just under the MLE. Does he make more than the max now, or is it somehow restricted?

There is an offset rule. When a player gets bought out and then signs with a new team, the cost of the new salary gets deducted from the buyout.

So effectively, Lillard got the final 2 years bought out by Milwaukee at $54.1M and $58.4M over the next two years (stretched over 5 years for a cap charge of $22.5M a year respectively).

Then Blazers signed him to a 3 year deal paying him $14.1M, $13.4M and $14.1M in each of the next 3 years respectively. Those $14.1M and $13.4M figures in the first 2 years get deducted from what Milwaukee owes him, so now Milwaukee only owes him $40.0M and $45.0M for his two buyout years.

At least that is what I'm inferring from the way things used to work, and it appears to be confirmed by a NY Times article here.

The one part that makes me less than 100% certain of this is that Spotrac is still reporting a $22.5M-a-year dead money cap charge on Milwaukee's books. If the offset rule applied, Milwaukee should only owe him a total of $85M. Stretched over 5 years, that's just $17M a year. The fact that Spotrac is reporting a $22.5M charge implies that Milwaukee is eating the full cap hit of $112.5M.

Either Spotrac or the NY Times is wrong. My guess is that Spotrac is the one that's wrong.