Shams: Raps acquire Ingram for Brown + Olynyk + IND 1st

[StopitLeo]

Just want to remind people that Steph Curry had bad injury luck for the first part of his career before he got stronger and luck turned in his favour later in his career.

Not saying Brandon Ingram is the same level of talent - he’s probably not going to be a top 20 player of all time. However, he’s definitely more talented than he’s shown and the bet is a change of scenery + physical and mental maturity will coalesce into a leap in performance for him, as well as a huge payoff for the raps. The odds are very good for a positive ROI.

Steph Curry missed a significant number of games in just one season in the first 8 seasons of his career, he was actually the picture of health outside of that regularly playing 70+ games per season, he even has two seasons where he played 80 games. There is no comparison between him and Brandon Ingram who has never been healthy in a season outside his rookie season where he played limited minutes in a bench role, he has literally never had a healthy season as a full time starter in his entire career, he's actually never even played enough games to qualify for postseason awards outside his rookie season.

Now I'm not saying Ingram staying healthy and playing a 70+ game season is something that can't happen, but I am saying that it seems very unlikely at this point in his career. I'll even go one step further and say we should probably be limiting his minutes and even load managing him the way we did in 2018-19 with Kawhai (no back-to-backs), that's the only chance I see for him to be healthy and ready to go come playoff time.

It's worth looking at the specifics of why Ingram missed games.

2017-18: Left groin strain (12 games), concussion (7 games, ended his season)
2018-19: Ankle sprain (7 games), blood clot in his arm caused by a vein being pinched (19 games, structural problem not blood condition)
2019-20: Right knee soreness (4 games), right ankle sprain (3 games).
2020-21: Toe (5 games), left ankle sprain (6 games at end of year so might have been shut down)
2021-22: Right hip contusion (7 games), right ankle sprain (5 games), right hamstring (10 + 3 games)
2022-23: Concussion (3 games), left toe injury (29 games)
2023-24: Right knee soreness (3 games), right achilles soreness (1 game), left knee contusion (12 games)
2024-25: Calf soreness (5 games), significant high-grade left ankle sprain (27+ games, shut down)

I think we can accept that joint sprains and muscle strains happen in basketball. I don't see any pattern to suggest that Ingram is particularly susceptible to sprains or strains to a specific part of his body.

What is unfortunate is that he has had two atypical injuries for basketball that caused him to miss a significant number of games (concussions and blood clot), as well as a few seemingly minor injuries that actually take a long time to heal (bone contusions, toe injuries).

IMO the only injury that should be of concern is his most recent ankle sprain. From what I have gathered it was likely a 3rd degree sprain but one that could be managed without surgery; I also suspect that it included a high-ankle sprain component which adds to the recovery time. Fortunately, you can fully recover from this injury and with proper rehabilitation there shouldn't be any significant risk of re-injury. We have to trust in the Raptors medical staff to get Ingram back fully healthy, which I am comfortable with after what they did with Kawhi.

Two additional things to note about his time in New Orleans that may very well be related. First, the Pelicans did not have a physiotherapist on staff until 2 seasons ago. Read that again—a professional basketball team without a physiotherapist on staff. Second, it was reported that some teammates were frustrated with Ingram because they thought he was unwilling to play through some injuries. Can you blame him if NOP has a considerably lacking medical staff of questionable competence?

I don't think Ingram is a particularly injury prone player. He's had some bad luck and a lack of support to properly take care of his body both to prevent injury and recovery from injury. Does this mean he won't get hurt this year? Of course not, but it's not like he has glass ankles (like Curry did before surgery) or a degenerative quad.

[earthtone]

Just for the sake of accuracy, because there are multiple inaccuracies in your post Los, the Cavs did win the draft lottery when they lost LeBron in the 2010-11 offseason, selecting Kyrie 1st overall in 2011.

Also, you are technically correct that AD had not been traded yet when the Pelicans won the 2019 draft lottery, but AD had requested a trade and made it clear to the Pels he wouldn't be extending with them in January 2019, which was before they won the 2019 draft lottery. The Pels "coincidentally" also won the AD draft lottery itself in 2012, after trading CP3 earlier in the 2011-12 season.

I’m talking about when LeBron went to LA.

But he hadn’t been dealt to LA yet. And Pelicans got a huge haul for AD. There’s no reason for the NBA to keep “helping” New Orleans while never helping out all of the other small markets. And if the NBA cared so much about New Orleans they wouldn’t be letting their owners trade unprotected FRPs for Derik Queen. lol.

And don't forget when Chris Paul was a New Orleans Hornet and the league operated the Hornets because they didn't have an owner. Of course he gets traded to the Clippers that season...but then the Hornets end up being sold to the Benson family in 2012 with a promise of an all-star game and miraculously...get the #1 pick in the next draft who became AD. The timing of all this is too obvious.

Pelicans had a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery that year, which is better odds than the worst team in the league has today.

You can find conspiracies for every team winning in every year, or you can attribute it to variance in a literal lottery system

[mtcan]

I’m talking about when LeBron went to LA.

But he hadn’t been dealt to LA yet. And Pelicans got a huge haul for AD. There’s no reason for the NBA to keep “helping” New Orleans while never helping out all of the other small markets. And if the NBA cared so much about New Orleans they wouldn’t be letting their owners trade unprotected FRPs for Derik Queen. lol.

And don't forget when Chris Paul was a New Orleans Hornet and the league operated the Hornets because they didn't have an owner. Of course he gets traded to the Clippers that season...but then the Hornets end up being sold to the Benson family in 2012 with a promise of an all-star game and miraculously...get the #1 pick in the next draft who became AD. The timing of all this is too obvious.

Pelicans had a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery that year, which is better odds than the worst team in the league has today.

You can find conspiracies for every team winning in every year, or you can attribute it to variance in a literal lottery system

The narrative makes it seem too convenient.

[Pointgod]

And don't forget when Chris Paul was a New Orleans Hornet and the league operated the Hornets because they didn't have an owner. Of course he gets traded to the Clippers that season...but then the Hornets end up being sold to the Benson family in 2012 with a promise of an all-star game and miraculously...get the #1 pick in the next draft who became AD. The timing of all this is too obvious.

Pelicans had a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery that year, which is better odds than the worst team in the league has today.

You can find conspiracies for every team winning in every year, or you can attribute it to variance in a literal lottery system

The narrative makes it seem too convenient.

That’s because you’re attributing motive to randomness. You’re also ignoring all the times a team won the lottery where there wasn’t a conspiracy theory to attach to.

[Psubs]

It's worth looking at the specifics of why Ingram missed games.

2017-18: Left groin strain (12 games), concussion (7 games, ended his season)
2018-19: Ankle sprain (7 games), blood clot in his arm caused by a vein being pinched (19 games, structural problem not blood condition)
2019-20: Right knee soreness (4 games), right ankle sprain (3 games).
2020-21: Toe (5 games), left ankle sprain (6 games at end of year so might have been shut down)
2021-22: Right hip contusion (7 games), right ankle sprain (5 games), right hamstring (10 + 3 games)
2022-23: Concussion (3 games), left toe injury (29 games)
2023-24: Right knee soreness (3 games), right achilles soreness (1 game), left knee contusion (12 games)
2024-25: Calf soreness (5 games), significant high-grade left ankle sprain (27+ games, shut down)

I think we can accept that joint sprains and muscle strains happen in basketball. I don't see any pattern to suggest that Ingram is particularly susceptible to sprains or strains to a specific part of his body.

What is unfortunate is that he has had two atypical injuries for basketball that caused him to miss a significant number of games (concussions and blood clot), as well as a few seemingly minor injuries that actually take a long time to heal (bone contusions, toe injuries).

IMO the only injury that should be of concern is his most recent ankle sprain. From what I have gathered it was likely a 3rd degree sprain but one that could be managed without surgery; I also suspect that it included a high-ankle sprain component which adds to the recovery time. Fortunately, you can fully recover from this injury and with proper rehabilitation there shouldn't be any significant risk of re-injury. We have to trust in the Raptors medical staff to get Ingram back fully healthy, which I am comfortable with after what they did with Kawhi.

Two additional things to note about his time in New Orleans that may very well be related. First, the Pelicans did not have a physiotherapist on staff until 2 seasons ago. Read that again—a professional basketball team without a physiotherapist on staff. Second, it was reported that some teammates were frustrated with Ingram because they thought he was unwilling to play through some injuries. Can you blame him if NOP has a considerably lacking medical staff of questionable competence?

I don't think Ingram is a particularly injury prone player. He's had some bad luck and a lack of support to properly take care of his body both to prevent injury and recovery from injury. Does this mean he won't get hurt this year? Of course not, but it's not like he has glass ankles (like Curry did before surgery) or a degenerative quad.

Thanks for the break down. He doesn't play reckless like Ja Morant. It seems like he just needs to increase his overall strength and conditioning.

[WiggOuts]

Pelicans had a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery that year, which is better odds than the worst team in the league has today.

You can find conspiracies for every team winning in every year, or you can attribute it to variance in a literal lottery system

The narrative makes it seem too convenient.

That’s because you’re attributing motive to randomness. You’re also ignoring all the times a team won the lottery where there wasn’t a conspiracy theory to attach to.

So because its not rigged every single time somehow means its not rigged at all?

[Fairview4Life]

Pelicans had a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery that year, which is better odds than the worst team in the league has today.

You can find conspiracies for every team winning in every year, or you can attribute it to variance in a literal lottery system

The narrative makes it seem too convenient.

That’s because you’re attributing motive to randomness. You’re also ignoring all the times a team won the lottery where there wasn’t a conspiracy theory to attach to.

You can probably come up with a theory for every team every year if you wanted to.

[CPT]

The narrative makes it seem too convenient.

That’s because you’re attributing motive to randomness. You’re also ignoring all the times a team won the lottery where there wasn’t a conspiracy theory to attach to.

So because its not rigged every single time somehow means its not rigged at all?

Yes?

[tecumseh18]

I’m talking about when LeBron went to LA.

But he hadn’t been dealt to LA yet. And Pelicans got a huge haul for AD. There’s no reason for the NBA to keep “helping” New Orleans while never helping out all of the other small markets. And if the NBA cared so much about New Orleans they wouldn’t be letting their owners trade unprotected FRPs for Derik Queen. lol.

And don't forget when Chris Paul was a New Orleans Hornet and the league operated the Hornets because they didn't have an owner. Of course he gets traded to the Clippers that season...but then the Hornets end up being sold to the Benson family in 2012 with a promise of an all-star game and miraculously...get the #1 pick in the next draft who became AD. The timing of all this is too obvious.

Pelicans had a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery that year, which is better odds than the worst team in the league has today.

You can find conspiracies for every team winning in every year, or you can attribute it to variance in a literal lottery system

OK, explain this. Before the lottery in 2021, Masai had been saying that the league needed to compensate the Raptors for having to play the season in Tampa. With the lottery, Raptors jumped from #7 into the top four. And from that point we hear no more about league compensation. Coincidence?

[ontnut]

The narrative makes it seem too convenient.

That’s because you’re attributing motive to randomness. You’re also ignoring all the times a team won the lottery where there wasn’t a conspiracy theory to attach to.

You can probably come up with a theory for every team every year if you wanted to.

True. Here are the facts:
Statistically speaking, since the invent of the lottery, teams have jumped up in the lottery WAY more than the odds imply they should.
At the same time...
The sample size is pretty small, so randomness and "luck" can have an outsized effect, skewing results.

My theory:
I don't believe the lotto is necessarily rigged - however, I would not be surprised if we found it that it was. The NBA is a multi billion dollar business. Protecting that by way of moving certain players to certain markets is probably worth whatever penalty they might face for a "draft rigging" or "totally fair Doncic trade" scandal.

If Kpop survival shows can be rigged to get certain members to debut,If politicians can be openly bribed left right and centre, and if the NBA clearly has a very public sports gambling "mafia" problem - why would you think the NBA is immune to rigging the draft? If it financially benefits the NBA and its owners, and they have full control/oversight/self-regulation over the entire process...who's whistleblowing on that?? Nobody actually loses by the NBA rigging the draft, so long as $$ goes up. 90%+ of owners DGAF if Doncic is on their team, so long as they get a 9 figure cheque from revenue share at the end of the year. The accounting firm 10000% does not care about the process - they collect their cheque and get free advertising, why would they bite the hand that feeds? Just having their name associated with and mentioned at the draft is worth at least $20 mil in comparable advertising dollars.

Multiple NBA players are now either guilty or very implicated in throwing games. Which has been a thing since professional sports and money have both existed. There are people powerful enough to make a guy throw away an almost guaranteed multi-million dollar salary, and generational wealth. You don't think there are also people powerful enough to make a guy like Adam Silver or whatever persons at "x" accounting firm do what they command?

I'm not saying it's currently happening. But I'm like 0% convinced it's not an entire ass possibility.

[brownbobcat]

That isn't true, obviously. We won 30 games, and we were visibly and statistically better with him on the floor.

He's not an All-Star, this is known. There's only so much he can do. But he's certainly an above-average player.

Above-average player <> above-average starter

Poeltl is not, and has never been, a top-10 C. He is firmly a mid-tier - AKA average - starter. If you want to argue that he's #13 and not #15, go ahead, but that's still average to me based on variance and the gap vs. top-10.

Of course the team is better with him on the floor because this team stunk last year. That doesn't make Poeltl a better player than he actually is nor does it render him invaluable. In fact, it actually makes him less valuable in some ways because there's arguably less utility in being a 30-win vs a 25-win team - hence my comment about zero success.

Anyway, we'll move on from that. We're making progress on the other part and Yak talk is taking us away from discussing Ingram, which is ostensibly what this thread is about... even though there's an Official Ingram thread already where conversation should be taking place.

I'm not sure what there is to even discuss about BI at this point, he hasn't seen single minute of action for this team. Should I be whining about how his own agent Rich Paul just came out and admitted Ingram wouldn't have gotten $40M/yr in free agency? And you still have some posters claiming it was a great deal or that this FO never overpays, but whatever.

[Los_29]

That isn't true, obviously. We won 30 games, and we were visibly and statistically better with him on the floor.

He's not an All-Star, this is known. There's only so much he can do. But he's certainly an above-average player.

Above-average player <> above-average starter

Poeltl is not, and has never been, a top-10 C. He is firmly a mid-tier - AKA average - starter. If you want to argue that he's #13 and not #15, go ahead, but that's still average to me based on variance and the gap vs. top-10.

Of course the team is better with him on the floor because this team stunk last year. That doesn't make Poeltl a better player than he actually is nor does it render him invaluable. In fact, it actually makes him less valuable in some ways because there's arguably less utility in being a 30-win vs a 25-win team - hence my comment about zero success.

Anyway, we'll move on from that. We're making progress on the other part and Yak talk is taking us away from discussing Ingram, which is ostensibly what this thread is about... even though there's an Official Ingram thread already where conversation should be taking place.

I'm not sure what there is to even discuss about BI at this point, he hasn't seen single minute of action for this team. Should I be whining about how his own agent Rich Paul just came out and admitted Ingram wouldn't have gotten $40M/yr in free agency? And you still have some posters claiming it was a great deal or that this FO never overpays, but whatever.

That doesn’t mean anything. We wouldn’t have been able to get Ingram had we not traded for him. And once again, Ingram is getting paid market value. Look at the projections they had for him last year. They had him commanding a deal between 40-50 million a year.

If we tried to lowball him then he just signs the 4 year 165 million dollar deal that was offered by the Pelicans or he goes to the Hawks for the same deal we got him for.

[ontnut]

That isn't true, obviously. We won 30 games, and we were visibly and statistically better with him on the floor.

He's not an All-Star, this is known. There's only so much he can do. But he's certainly an above-average player.

Above-average player <> above-average starter

Poeltl is not, and has never been, a top-10 C. He is firmly a mid-tier - AKA average - starter. If you want to argue that he's #13 and not #15, go ahead, but that's still average to me based on variance and the gap vs. top-10.

Of course the team is better with him on the floor because this team stunk last year. That doesn't make Poeltl a better player than he actually is nor does it render him invaluable. In fact, it actually makes him less valuable in some ways because there's arguably less utility in being a 30-win vs a 25-win team - hence my comment about zero success.

Anyway, we'll move on from that. We're making progress on the other part and Yak talk is taking us away from discussing Ingram, which is ostensibly what this thread is about... even though there's an Official Ingram thread already where conversation should be taking place.

I'm not sure what there is to even discuss about BI at this point, he hasn't seen single minute of action for this team. Should I be whining about how his own agent Rich Paul just came out and admitted Ingram wouldn't have gotten $40M/yr in free agency? And you still have some posters claiming it was a great deal or that this FO never overpays, but whatever.

I think Rich was speaking to the lack of available free agency dollars in general these days/this ofseason, and the value of the extension mechanism, as opposed to BI's worth on the open market. He's saying that teams simply don't have that much cap space these days to outright sign star tier free agents, so player movement/signings tend to be these types of trades/extensions vs. traditional free agency. I don't think it's an indictment at all on the Raptors FO/the deal itself.

[Pointgod]

The narrative makes it seem too convenient.

That’s because you’re attributing motive to randomness. You’re also ignoring all the times a team won the lottery where there wasn’t a conspiracy theory to attach to.

So because its not rigged every single time somehow means its not rigged at all?

Yes because you’re ignoring the times it could have been rigged in the favour of the NBA as a business. You also ignore the random times that teams have jumped up or won the lottery that it didn’t suit your narrative. The idea that it’s rigged is literally the example of selectively choosing data to reinforce your own bias.

[YogurtProducer]

True. Here are the facts:
Statistically speaking, since the invent of the lottery, teams have jumped up in the lottery WAY more than the odds imply they should.

Gonna need some sourcing on these "facts". To me, sounds like you dont understand it

[brownbobcat]

That doesn’t mean anything. We wouldn’t have been able to get Ingram had we not traded for him. And once again, Ingram is getting paid market value. Look at the projections they had for him last year. They had him commanding a deal between 40-50 million a year.

If we tried to lowball him then he just signs the 4 year 165 million dollar deal that was offered by the Pelicans or he goes to the Hawks for the same deal we got him for.

Should I believe that Ingram turned down an extra $45M from NOP just to join Toronto or these "projections" or should I believe what his agent just admitted publicly about getting overpaid? The latter, I think.

Atlanta traded away Hunter for more flexibility, not less. They also just traded for another a comparable/better player in Porzingis and didn't give him a silly extension.

Lastly, having to outbid NOH/ATL is maybe not a great sign you're on the right track to making a good decision.

[ontnut]

True. Here are the facts:
Statistically speaking, since the invent of the lottery, teams have jumped up in the lottery WAY more than the odds imply they should.

Gonna need some sourcing on these "facts". To me, sounds like you dont understand it

Well, with the new weighted lottery odds since 2019:
Seed 1: Slightly overperformed (+4.94%), appearing in top 4 more than projected.
Seed 2: Huge underperformance (−23.63% absolute, −45% relative).
Seed 3: Underperformed (−9.34%, −17.9%)
Seed 4: Substantial underperformance (−18.53%, −39.3%)
Seed 5: Performed much worse than probability (−27.81%, −66%)
Especially for seeds 2–5, actual outcomes have clearly fell short of theoretical expectations.

Based on the analysis of NBA Draft Lottery outcomes from 2019–2025, there are several clear statistical anomalies when comparing actual results to expected average draft picks:

Seed 11 (Massive Overperformance, Mavs win lottery in 2025)
Expected Avg Pick: ~11.0
Actual Avg Pick: ~6.5
Anomaly: Moved up ~4.5 positions on average — an extraordinary jump for a team with just 7.1% odds of a top-4 pick.

Seed 10 (Atlanta Hawks win in 2024)
Expected Avg Pick: ~10.0
Actual Avg Pick: ~7.0
Anomaly: Overperformed by 3 draft positions on average.

Seed 2 (Underperformance)
Expected Avg Pick: ~2.9
Actual Avg Pick: ~4.0
Anomaly: Moved down by more than 1 pick on average — substantially worse than expected.

Seed 5 (Severe Underperformance)
Expected Avg Pick: ~5.0
Actual Avg Pick: ~6.1
Anomaly: Over 1 pick worse than expectation.

The lottery is working as intended in flattening outcomes and introducing randomness.
But Seeds 10–11 overperforming, and Seeds 2–6 underperforming, raise questions about true randomness vs. variance in small samples.
Over a longer time horizon, these may normalize — but over 7 years, they're clearly statistical anomalies.

If 5 of the top 6 seeds are all underperforming their actual odds expectations, that means teams below them are performing way better than expected. Seeds 2-6 all have average picks 1-2 picks worse than expected given the odds. So, yeah. Variance exists - so given the small sample size since the recent modern lottery odds, maybe it's just randomness or outliers affecting results. This graph will help visualize it.



The binomial p-value for observing 2 or more #1 overall picks from Seed 10 or 11 over 7 NBA draft lotteries — given their combined odds of ~4.5% per year — is p = 0.0366. Anything below p of 0.05 is statistically significant. It means that if the lottery were truly random and followed the published odds, there would be only a 3.66% chance of seeing this outcome by "luck" alone.

Thoughts? Do I still seem like I don't "understand it"?

[ReggieSlater]

OMG, insta-ban. You're barred from speaking forever for that...

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/power-platform/products/power-bi

Yes, I got the joke; I have used Power BI, I was being facetious

I'm glad my clever joke landed 4 months after I made.

[tsherkin]

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/power-platform/products/power-bi

Yes, I got the joke; I have used Power BI, I was being facetious

I'm glad my clever joke landed 4 months after I made.

I didn't see it when it first came around, so I thought I'd make a fuss xD

[Tripod]

That isn't true, obviously. We won 30 games, and we were visibly and statistically better with him on the floor.

He's not an All-Star, this is known. There's only so much he can do. But he's certainly an above-average player.

Above-average player <> above-average starter

Poeltl is not, and has never been, a top-10 C. He is firmly a mid-tier - AKA average - starter. If you want to argue that he's #13 and not #15, go ahead, but that's still average to me based on variance and the gap vs. top-10.

Of course the team is better with him on the floor because this team stunk last year. That doesn't make Poeltl a better player than he actually is nor does it render him invaluable. In fact, it actually makes him less valuable in some ways because there's arguably less utility in being a 30-win vs a 25-win team - hence my comment about zero success.

Anyway, we'll move on from that. We're making progress on the other part and Yak talk is taking us away from discussing Ingram, which is ostensibly what this thread is about... even though there's an Official Ingram thread already where conversation should be taking place.

I'm not sure what there is to even discuss about BI at this point, he hasn't seen single minute of action for this team. Should I be whining about how his own agent Rich Paul just came out and admitted Ingram wouldn't have gotten $40M/yr in free agency? And you still have some posters claiming it was a great deal or that this FO never overpays, but whatever.

I think Rich was speaking to the lack of available free agency dollars in general these days/this ofseason, and the value of the extension mechanism, as opposed to BI's worth on the open market. He's saying that teams simply don't have that much cap space these days to outright sign star tier free agents, so player movement/signings tend to be these types of trades/extensions vs. traditional free agency. I don't think it's an indictment at all on the Raptors FO/the deal itself.

Exactly.

Would Harden have gotten 40+million this summer as a UFA? No. Kyrie? No. Lebron? Hmm. Etc...

The money wasn't there for UFA's but it was there by owning their rights and re-signing them.