RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #3 — 1991 Michael Jordan

[Elpolo_14]

2- hakeem (1993>1994>1995)

3- tim duncan 2003 (2002)

What was the final evaluation aspect you made to decide which one of these two should be above the other?

[Elpolo_14]

This will prolly be the last ballot i dont go too into depth for but we still gotta get through MJ who was obviously 2 but is instead obviously 3 so lets get this over with
.

That mean you gonna go more serious in the next post? That great

yea after MJ and shaq go and there's actual serious consideration for me on who should go where

What Range gonna be the most interesting placement for discussion in your opinion?

Would the Kobe - Jokic - KG range be more compelling
Or
The Paul George - Penny -Dwight ( bottom half ) be more interesting

[Elpolo_14]

Giannis - 2021
2019, 2020, 2022
Two-way monster. Best defender and can score 30. You should take that deal. Won a ring with kris middleton and jrue bledsoe. Kris middleton and Jrue Bledsoe. 40 points and amazing defense in the finals

What Case Does Giannis has over Hakeem to the point that can eclipse the difference in Playoffs Scalability + Defensive anchor ?

[falcolombardi]

2- hakeem (1993>1994>1995)

3- tim duncan 2003 (2002)

What was the final evaluation aspect you made to decide which one of these two should be above the other?

I think hakeem upper ceiling just has a extra little bit of potential, he was after all that little bit faster, a bit more natural at ballhandling, a bit more natural with footwork so his high end case is just a bit stronger than duncan's

[ceoofkobefans]

That mean you gonna go more serious in the next post? That great

yea after MJ and shaq go and there's actual serious consideration for me on who should go where

What Range gonna be the most interesting placement for discussion in your opinion?

Would the Kobe - Jokic - KG range be more compelling
Or
The Paul George - Penny -Dwight ( bottom half ) be more interesting

I'll always find the less discussed less popular discussion to be more interesting bc like kobe vs steph or kg has happened a million times and it just turns into the same talking points getting recycled

[Top10alltime]

I'll have to give more thought on my 3rd spot, but for now...

3. 1999-00 Shaq (97-98, 00-01, 01-02)


Another big man in Shaq, tough choice between Kareem and Shaq, ultimately I lean Kareem due to much better defense, but I will admit that Shaq has a case, with his sub-GOAT tier offensive game, and with him still being a DPOY level defender.

Shaquille O'Neal's game is about him on the post/rim. As we know he can't stretch the floor well even like other bigs, so he relied on working for post position. Also exposed mismatches well in post, great iso player there. A great offensive rebounder, also an efficient scorer (Shaq RS: 30.3 IA pts/75 on +5.5 rTS, Shaq in PO: 29.9 IA pts/75 on +3.9 rTS). Shaq drawing fouls generating baskets did help, but it made him easier to scheme against.

Also I value his gravity, opening up floor for teammates, giving him much more value as a playmaker. He is one of the best off-ball playmakers ever in this season as well, due to his gravity. Here is what that led to, by my tracking of 00 Shaq Finals Game 2 (surprisingly, his defense isn't all that great, making me lower on this Shaq) -

My 00 Shaq tracking for the g2 finals

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1l9iM2mTvPlZvpOmr3epz0MkLuoRwf36lxNMvaGwlZOM/edit?usp=drivesdk

Final tally -

22x doubled
26 DTOs
12 EDTOs
7 creation
80 possessions available

13 PP
5 EPP
5 IPP

7 PPD
6 IPPD
1 EPPD
74 possessions available

Shaq had GOAT lvl gravity and scoring this game, but that increased his playmaking advantage (among others) greatly.

He also showed that he could still lift the team without his second option, proving his sub-GOAT floor raising:

Without Kobe:
Kobe started the 2000 season injured. He missed all of November. During that time, the Lakers and Shaq didn’t miss a beat at all.

11-3 record
6.61 SRS (would still be good enough to be #1 in the league)

Shaq performed admirably
28.7 PPG, 13.4 Reb, 3 AST, 59.5 FG%

More impressively is how the Lakers performed when Shaq was on the court during that span that Kobe missed.
107 O rating (+6.8 from League average)
94.3 D rating (-7.0 from league average)
+12.7 Net Rating

The most amazing thing about the above numbers is that Shaq’s full season numbers were 106 O rating and 95 D rating (11 Net) so that means the Lakers with Shaq on the court while Kobe didn’t play, played better offense and defense than the Lakers played with Shaq on the court in the games Kobe played. Shaq really stepped it up in that span.

Here is Shaq’s supporting cast during those games:
36 year old Ron Harper, 7 PPG 39.9 FG%
25 year old Derek Fisher, 6 PPG, 34.6 FG%
32 year old Glen Rice, 15.9 PPG, 43 FG%
36 year old A.C. Green, 5 PPG 44.7 FG%
2000 Shaq

Bench,
Brian Shaw
Rick Fox
Robert Horry
Travis Knight
John Celestand

Despite all of that, Shaq performed just as well and somehow got an on court 107 Offensive rating (+6.8 from league average) with Shaq on court. To put that into perspective, the #2 offense this year (Heat) are +6.5. They also played -7.0 defense which is the exact same that the 2011 Bulls and Celtics played.

In that month without Kobe, while the team played awesome with Shaq on the court, they were horrific without Shaq in that month

On court: +12 per 100
Off court: -44 in 197 minutes, (-11.17 per 100)
+23.19 per 100 possession difference

So Shaq was propping up a mediocre at best cast in Kobe’s absence to playing like the best team in the league when Shaq was on the court.

To show Shaq's true dominance at the rim, here are his FG% numbers:
FG% from 0-3 FT: 77.6% (ATG to sub-GOAT lvl)
FG% from 3-10 FT: 44.8% (efficient, still great)

Shaq was much more unstoppable, in this limited area, due to how he could finish, his GOAT rim-pressure, and his area in deep post, where he could dunk(14.7% of his shot attempts are dunks). His physical game was incredible as-well, as he overpowered opponents in this area.

2000-01 Shaq has an argument, based on if you value the PO that much (his best playoff run in his career), but for me, it is not enough to beat out his excellent RS and PO combination, as well as his DPOY lvl defensive peak.


4. 1963-64 Wilt (61-62, 66-67, 67-68)

Most people consider 66-67 to be Wilt's peak, but for me, Wilt didn't really stand out enough as a playmaker or on defence enough to beat out this iteration of Wilt. (Although, I will say that 67 Wilt has a case). There are two things for me taking him over 67..

-> Wilt, at least by the numbers, was a better defender. He also seemed to be a better interior defender, and had better rim deterrence, by the film that is available. He wasn't all that active though, and a worse defender in transition (due to spending so many minutes on the court), and his effectiveness guarding perimeter seemed to stay mostly the same..

-> Wilt was better scorer off of offensive rebounding (he was still GOAT lvl at that in 67), and great interior scorer, with ATG rim pressure. He also had a much worse team than in 67 Sixers, so it was much harder to lift his team to the offensive heights when he had terrible support in 64 Warriors

As a basketball player, Wilt looks like better defensive player on film and with the stats, also this is a elite defensive season at worst, sub GOAT defensive season to me, since rim protection was very valued in 60s and that led to anchoring a -6 defence (he still had good help in Thurmond, but Thurmond was a rookie and hadn't emerged). His low fouling might be attributed to him having little discipline, but I have yet to see proof of this.

Wilt had ATG scoring season (expected from a top 10-15 scorer in history), averaging insane amount of point for a post big, on high efficiency: (28.0 IA pts/75 on +5.2 rTS), one of his greatest scoring seasons ever. This is on top of the incredible gravity he had, the rim pressure he had, along with hitting fadeaways at a reasonable clip, for bigs:

Prime games (1962-68):

All shots: 157/255 FGA (61.6 FG%)

All fadeaways: 50/109 FGA (45.9 FG%)
From left block: 37/78 FGA (47.4 FG%)
From right block: 6/15 FGA (40.0 FG%)
Non-post fadeaways: 7/16 FGA (43.8 FG%)

All finger rolls: 17/30 FGA (56.7 FG%)
From left block: 5/12 FGA (41.7 FG%)
From right block: 9/14 FGA (64.3 FG%)
Non-post finger rolls: 3/4 FGA (75.0 FG%)

As a playmaker, he exposed double-teams like in 1966-67 on the ball, he could hit his open man. Off-ball, he provided value as playmaker, using his gravity to leave open teammates for shots.

5. 2002-03 Duncan (01-02, 03-04)

Will fill in later.

[Joao Saraiva]

Thank you for letting me participate. Here goes my 1st vote:

Vote 1: Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-1994)
I think we're talking about the GOAT peak here. He was the driving force of Houston's offense, operating very well in the post to score, providing range (spacing) and while he wasn't a great passer for his entire career I beleive Hakeem was very good in that regard during that season. Even tough I'd still take Shaq or MJ over him on offense I don't see a big gap there, at least one that justifies compensating for his defensive effforts.

The rim protection he provided was legendary. The man to man defense was tremendous, but on top of that Hakeem covered a ton of ground and could definitely switch and defend faster players. So we're getting the best of both worlds - the rim protection at Duncan's level (I might add that he was even better) and covering ground like Kevin Garnett.

I think Hakeem is by far the best defender I've ever seen (tough for obvious reasons I didn't see that much of Bill Russell).

That season ended up being the perfect Hakeem season, and overall I think he was the best player I've ever seen in a 1 year spam.

Vote 2: Michael Jordan 1990-1991
For the sake of the project I hope he gets in soon. Hard to choose a season for MJ but I'll go with 91, as I think he played very well within the team concept, trusting his teammates enough while he still was at the peak of his powers.

True driving force to the rim, already showing us superb footwork and ability to hit a lot from midrange. On defense I don't think there was a lot of coasting either, and while we can debate who was the best defender in his own team it's certainly close. Crazy good ability to defend man to man and cover a lot of ground, quick hands, smart on the passing lanes and usually good help D even tough we were still in the illegal defense era. I don't think you could ask for much more from a guard perspective.

To end the season... well, he was even out assisting Magic in the finals till the very last game. It was the perfect combo of absurd scoring and great playmaking. Granted it wasn't the best version of the Lakers anymore, they were still a worthy opponent (no pun intended).

Vote 3: Shaq 1999-2000
Just pure dominance. On offense it's hard to argue anyone against 00 Shaq or even 01 Shaq.

Teams literally had 2 or 3 spots in their roster filled with big guys just to foul Shaq.

You couldn't let him get the ball deep. And if you fronted him he could definitely complete the alley oop.

While on defense Shaq didn't cover a ton of ground (in the finals against Indy that was exploited pretty well), he definitely was a good rim protector and a good man to man defender for the entire season. That alone might make him less portable for today's game but... he played in 00. So he and the Lakers weren't obviously worried about that at all.

Even when facing guys like Duncan/Robinson, Karl Malone, Davis, Mutombo he looked on a completely different level strenght wise.

[AEnigma]

1. Hakeem Olajuwon (1993 = 1994)
2. Michael Jordan (1990 > 1991)
3. Tim Duncan (2003 > 2002)

Pertinent part of #1 thread’s ballot quoted below:

Spoiler:

So for peaks I tend to mildly separate bigs and perimetre players. Basketball for me is a sport which intuitively favours height. There tend to be skill tradeoffs, but a 6’9”+ player has more capacity to become a decent to good passer/dribbler/shooter than a guard has to become a decent to good rim protector at any real volume. Where that can be messy is that this advantage tends to carry over to what we tend to assess as “replacement players”. There are plenty of circumstantial exceptions based on team construction, but typically I would expect a replacement-level big to maintain more latent basketball value than a replacement-level guard. And I think this can ring intuitively true in a peaks project when you look at the players sampled: there are comfortably more 6’9”+ players, even though the population is a lot smaller.

Now, the other side of this is that bigs become both harder to evaluate relative to each other… and less likely to clearly separate themselves from the pack. I think back to 1992, when Magic’s forced retirement propelled Clyde Drexler into the spotlight as Jordan’s new top perimetre rival. Drexler has never appeared in one of these projects or come especially close. And while Barkley in 1993 was a more legitimate contender, he peaked at #23 in 2012 and has slid with every iteration; as of 2022, there was a 30-spot gap between him and Jordan. Reggie Miller was another moderate competitor, and he is an all-time playoff riser; he has also never appeared in one of these projects. Penny Hardaway, something of a rival from 1995-97, was #28 in 2012, not top forty in 2015/19, and #39 in 2022. Grant Hill was a marketed rival in 1997; never appeared in one of these projects. Even looking at some of the shooting guards who followed Jordan, we have no appearances from Vince Carter, Allen Iverson, Ray Allen… Jordan was a monolithic outlier from the rest of his “small” competition. People could debate the bigs, and while Magic was around they could debate the best (nominal) guard, but after 1991, there was no debate. We can fairly question Jordan’s modern translation, but in his era, Jordan was a historic outlier for his size in a way we had not seen since at Oscar and West (or maybe ABA Erving) and would not see again until Curry.

Of course, while it would be easy enough to argue players like Oscar and West were more separated from other guards than Russell and Wilt were from other centres, that does not mean we qualify them as greater peaks. Or going back even further, Mikan versus Bob Cousy. We can then amend the idea a bit to acknowledge era dynamics, where the playmaking of Oscar and West had more of a capped value than the rim protection and overall defence of Russell and Wilt in terms of how those skills could be applied to the rest of the league. For Jordan, while I have seen comments about his playmaking being somewhat similarly limited by the constraints of his era, that was not anywhere near enough of an element of his game for it to overwrite the immense value of being a still-unparalleled volume scoring hub against defences which were far more limited in their ability to reliably force him to relinquish volume to his teammates.

The other important amendment in the context of a peaks project is that it does not necessarily matter when you were the clearest outlier relative to the league. Kareem was more of an outlier prior to the merger, but that does not mean he suddenly became a worse player during the 1976 offseason — and indeed, the history of this project suggests that the majority consistently assesses Kareem’s peak as that first post-merger year, even though he was not exhibiting the same suggestions of “impact” as what he had on the Bucks, nor as what Bill Walton was exhibiting at the same time. And part of why is that we all clearly do some amount of filtering for both league context and the quality of opposition, e.g. 1948-50 George Mikan never receiving any consideration for this spot.

Jordan is not my #2 perimetre peak over Magic because I think he was demonstrably more impactful; there is plenty of evidence that he was not (although I suppose it depends on the degree to which box scores are conflated with actual impact). And Magic is not my #3 perimetre peak over someone like Curry because I think Curry was inherently less impactful than Magic. What I am generally looking for is expected resilience as the foundation of a title team, and what separates Magic from Curry is that Magic consistently maintains in the postseason, and what separates Jordan from Magic is that Jordan consistently improves in the postseason. That improvement is also largely why I have Hakeem atop my list of bigs. Elephant in the room there is that Bill Russell won more consistently than anyone in the history of team sports, but I think his dominance was disproportionately tied to the dynamics of his era being comparatively skewed toward defence. Again, like with Mikan, context and environment do influence these choices.

“Confidence” is an essential element of these discussions, and I am generally pleased to see it come to the forefront in this thread (even if the concept behind it can be and has been abused or misrepresented). Saying, “this player is a better scorer because they score more,” is not drastically different from, “I am more confident that this player is a better scorer because they score more,” but it is an important distinction nevertheless. For Hakeem, there is a long-term consistency in the postseason which gives me confidence I do not have from other bigs, and that in turn makes me more confident in his peak postseason value. I am not sure that 1993/94 Hakeem is better than 2002/03 Duncan in their respective postseasons… but I am more sure of it in the sense that I feel more sure of Hakeem as a postseason performer generally.

If that tepid confidence is present with a cross-big comparison, it is even cooler with bigs versus perimetre players. For example, I am more confident that perimetre players like Jordan/Magic/Curry could be more “impactful”, via value over replacement, than the best bigs, than I am that the best perimetre players are better on their own merits independent of replacement value “impact” advantages. And when it comes to Hakeem versus Jordan, well, the simplest way to put it is that I am more confident in Hakeem’s ability to rise through adversity and win a series or game which he should not, and that matters more to me than the idea that Jordan is more likely to win by a larger amount and therefore less likely to be placed in adverse situations at all. Jordan only ever lost one series where he had the lead (1989 Pistons), which I think is second only to the undefeated-with-a-lead Russell, and he never lost a home series or a series where he was favoured (Russell’s exception for both is his injured series against the 1958 Hawks). Hakeem also only lost one series with a lead (1998 Jazz), but he did lose two series at home and as the favourite (1985 Jazz and 1987 Sonics). However, he was arguably the best ever at managing an upset*, going 10-10 as an SRS underdog (as of this year, slightly outpacing Lebron’s 10-11) and 7-10 as a road SRS underdog (slightly behind Lebron’s 8-10). And as a minor additional note, he is one of only three players (Russell and Lebron) to win a series down 3-1 on the road. To paraphrase while slightly inverting f4p’s comment about splitting hairs between similarly good players with different strengths, while I am happy with peak Jordan if I am in an adverse situation, and I am happy with Hakeem if I am in a favourable situation, I prefer the player I trust more in the adverse situation because I think adverse situations are more likely.

Nominally choosing Duncan here in part because I see a valuable roster-building advantage in his ability to succeed as both power forward and centre through his career, but his placement is not secure. Will talk more about Hakeem and Duncan specifically next thread (spoiler alert I guess).

Results will be posted shortly.

[AEnigma]

2025 #3 Greatest Peak Result: 1991 Michael Jordan



I recorded 28 ballots for this thread. No player established a majority of first place ballots; however, Jordan won the head-to-head against all other named players. 1991 was the selected season by a majority (18/21) of ballots expressing a preference. The top three respective head-to-head records are recorded below:

Michael Jordan wins 15-9 over Hakeem Olajuwon.
Michael Jordan wins 18-9 over Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan wins 19-7 over Bill Russell.

The 28 voters were:
Elpolo_14, trelos6, Top10alltime, Verticality, Busywithbball, Djoker, Paulluxx, IlikeSHAIguys, metta-tonne, Ollie Coraline, OhayoKD, One_and_Done, Ol Roy, capfan33, EmpireFalls, trevon2x, Joao Saraiva, falcolombardi, homecourtloss, Doctor MJ, tsherkin, VanWest82, Gibson22, ceoofkobefans, Smoothbutta, Samurai, Lebronnygoat, and AEnigma.

If you voted and do not see your name listed, please let me know; always possible that I missed someone.

The #4 Greatest Peaks thread will open shortly.

[Top10alltime]

2025 #3 Greatest Peak Result: 1991 Michael Jordan



I recorded 29 ballots for this thread. No player established a majority of first place ballots; however, Jordan won the head-to-head against all other named players. 1991 was the selected season by a majority (19/22) of ballots expressing a preference. The top three respective head-to-head records are recorded below:

Michael Jordan wins 16-9 over Hakeem Olajuwon.
Michael Jordan wins 19-9 over Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan wins 20-7 over Bill Russell.

The 29 voters were:
Elpolo_14, trelos6, Top10alltime, Verticality, Busywithbball, Djoker, Paulluxx, IlikeSHAIguys, metta-tonne, Ollie Coraline, OhayoKD, One_and_Done, f4p, Ol Roy, capfan33, EmpireFalls, trevon2x, Joao Saraiva, falcolombardi, homecourtloss, Doctor MJ, tsherkin, VanWest82, Gibson22, ceoofkobefans, Smoothbutta, Samurai, Lebronnygoat, and AEnigma.

If you voted and do not see your name listed, please let me know; always possible that I missed someone.

The #4 Greatest Peaks thread will open shortly.

Me personally, I don't see how Jordan is #3 peak of all time over any of Tim Duncan or Hakeem Olajuwon for it to be this dominant of a win, but that's just me.

[eminence]

Could someone point me to f4ps voting post?

[AEnigma]

Could someone point me to f4ps voting post?

Good catch; Mandela effect of seeing Djoker’s and VanWest’s Jordan/Shaq/Wilt ballots in the same thread as several of his non-voting posts. Will edit.