Kuminga sign and trade Bulls interest

[greenwing]

If we had a legitimate rim-protecting center then you could theoretically move Ayo for Kuminga in a S&T deal while also extending Giddey and then having him switch between the 3 and 4 with Matas depending on matchup. However, with Vuc pencilled in at the starting 5 he's a bad fit for the current roster. On top of that he has no range on his shot. At least Patrick Williams is a capable three-point shooter. I would argue that while Kuminga may be more athletic than Williams, the only reason he scores more than him has been because of his FGA's. Their TS%'s are not far off and that's in part due to Williams taking more 3's. Kuminga may be a slightly better player than Williams currently but he's not necessarily a better fit with the current roster and if Pat ever figures it out and becomes a more aggressive player he could actually turn into something and would likely cost less than whatever Kuminga eventually gets on his next contract.

[Infinity2152]

If the GS board is to believed, GS is trying to retain Kuminga at $20m and he wants $30m. Virtually the same situation at Giddey.

Exactly. So the logic of why no team has thrown a contract at him is very similar to Giddey. Not just the perceived value of the player. Kuminga's contract is actually FAR, FAR harder to do because the receiving team can only send half the cap back. So it's way worse than Giddey's situation. Bulls are saying they're not giving Giddey $30 mill right now. Is that the truth of the max they think he's worth?

If the warriors are offering $20 mill, who knows what they would be willing to go up to? Not saying that's the whole situation, but surely all those factors are affecting his contract offers and perceived market value.

[coldfish]

If we had a legitimate rim-protecting center then you could theoretically move Ayo for Kuminga in a S&T deal while also extending Giddey and then having him switch between the 3 and 4 with Matas depending on matchup. However, with Vuc pencilled in at the starting 5 he's a bad fit for the current roster. On top of that he has no range on his shot. At least Patrick Williams is a capable three-point shooter. I would argue that while Kuminga may be more athletic than Williams, the only reason he scores more than him has been because of his FGA's. Their TS%'s are not far off and that's in part due to Williams taking more 3's. Kuminga may be a slightly better player than Williams currently but he's not necessarily a better fit with the current roster and if Pat ever figures it out and becomes a more aggressive player he could actually turn into something and would likely cost less than whatever Kuminga eventually gets on his next contract.

Kuminga had a 17.0 PER at age 21 before regressing last year to 15.7. Pat had a career high 12.0 in his second year and has got worse every year since then.

They really aren't the same. Pat has one of the lowest motors in the NBA and has had that issue since college. It isn't going to suddenly get better in his 5th year.

[kodo]

https://dallashoopsjournal.com/p/jonathan-kuminga-doesnt-want-to-return-to-golden-state-warriors-nba-trade-rumors-news/

Brett Siegel:

“While there are members of the organization who want Jonathan Kuminga back, given his overall potential, the assumption is that he would return with the understanding that he would be flipped before the trade deadline in February,” Siegel wrote. “The only problem is that it is known around the league that Kuminga doesn’t want to be with the Warriors any longer and instead wants to continue his career elsewhere, sources said.”

Kuminga has been linked to the Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls in sign-and-trade talks.

[greenwing]

If we had a legitimate rim-protecting center then you could theoretically move Ayo for Kuminga in a S&T deal while also extending Giddey and then having him switch between the 3 and 4 with Matas depending on matchup. However, with Vuc pencilled in at the starting 5 he's a bad fit for the current roster. On top of that he has no range on his shot. At least Patrick Williams is a capable three-point shooter. I would argue that while Kuminga may be more athletic than Williams, the only reason he scores more than him has been because of his FGA's. Their TS%'s are not far off and that's in part due to Williams taking more 3's. Kuminga may be a slightly better player than Williams currently but he's not necessarily a better fit with the current roster and if Pat ever figures it out and becomes a more aggressive player he could actually turn into something and would likely cost less than whatever Kuminga eventually gets on his next contract.

Kuminga had a 17.0 PER at age 21 before regressing last year to 15.7. Pat had a career high 12.0 in his second year and has got worse every year since then.

They really aren't the same. Pat has one of the lowest motors in the NBA and has had that issue since college. It isn't going to suddenly get better in his 5th year.

I agree with you that Pat has a low motor and he's never figured it out. That being said, if he was actually given the opportunity to be fed the ball he'd be a more efficient player. However, he was never going to be that guy playing with Lavine, DeRozan and Vucevic who are high usage players. On top of that, he's not the shooter that Coby and Giddey are so he's not a good fit with them either. My question is if you bring in Kuminga, how much of an upgrade are you really getting over Pat? It seems to me you're trading an athletic and sometimes explosive tweener forward with no shooting range for an inconsistent tweener foward who can shoot 3's and plays good defense. As for Kuminga's one above league average PER year, you would think that with an increase in FGA's his PER would improve or at least remain the same. Instead, his PER went down.

Both Pat and Kuminga are both extremely young so they still have time to develop. But IMO while both guys will likely have long NBA careers (yes, even Pat), I don't think either will ever be all-stars unless they find the right situations to explode. I'm not sure that place is Chicago for Kuminga and it's definitely not Chicago for Williams. But it can and does happen to certain guys. Look at Lauri, for instance. The talent was there but he needed the right situation in Utah to break out. The question is how many Bulls fan think Kuminga could be that type of guy here? I still have reservations since I don't think he fits what we currently have on the roster unless one of our big men (Vuc, Collins, Smith, Essengue) can figure out how to play off of him effectively on the defensive end of the court. That is, assuming that we don't develop Matas on defense at the 4 - which they might and would make the fit less questionable, I suppose.

[GuardianEnzo]

Kuminga is light years better than Pat, ROFL. Whether or not to add him is a legit debate but that shouldn’t even be under discussion.

[WesPeace]

Sign and trade 24M per, swap for Vooch and Terry - ok, otherwise eeeh no

[GuardianEnzo]

Sign and trade 24M per, swap for Vooch and Terry - ok, otherwise eeeh no

$24m could happen, but GS isn’t going to facilitate it unless they get at least one asset they actually want. Ayo is probably the realistic talent cost. That’s the debate.

[Am2626]

If Kuminga was particularly good, why wouldn’t Brooklyn, who had no one locked in and all the cap room in the world, make a play for him?

Sure, he has upside, but so did Jabari Parker, so did Zack LaVine, so does Jalen Green out of Houston.

He had a 54% TS last year. Yes, for the prior two he was at 69%, but when you consider meh FT, poor 3 0t percentage (except one year), negative +/- on/off 3 out of 4 years, including last year….

I mean, if we could unload Pat….

The Bulls don’t have anything. At least take a chance on a talented high upside athletic 22 year old. Maybe it works maybe it doesn’t but there isn’t a better alternative over the next 5 years.

He could easily be Jabari Parker 2.0. he can score, although he was below average efficiency last year and has never been a good shooter... And that is about it.

As for the Bulls having nothing, Giddey IMO is 100% a better player, and so is Matas, already. So there are 2 guys who play the defensive forward spots that are already ahead of Kuminga - and Giddey shouldn't be forced to defend the perimeter to enable a rim runner / slasher who does nothing else.

Meanwhile, adding Kuminga also reduces opportunities for Essengue. If Essengue is more advanced than some (including myself) fear - having a Kuminga, on potentially an already hard to move contract, either hurts
Noa (another rim runner but who has more defensive upside) or further hurts ability to trade Kuminga.

Yeah, just zero interest. Like Red wrote, would have more interest in Grimes, or even Jalen Green.

When Jabari Parker came to the Bulls he was washed up as he had suffered 2 ACL Tears on the same leg. Kuminga hasn’t had any major injuries like that. The fact is we don’t know what Kuminga is because he hasn’t any any type of consistent playing time. It’s very hard to develop if you are not getting consistent minutes or reps. People act like the Bulls have this great roster that has to be protected at all cost. This team needs an infusion of talent and Kuminga is the only realistic way for the Bulls to improve their roster talent. The Bulls need to take a swing like this. Otherwise the floor will be back of the lottery and ceiling second round of the playoffs. There will be no chance at championship number 7 because there will be no realistic way to get out of this NBA Hell.

[2weekswithpay]

The Bulls don’t have anything. At least take a chance on a talented high upside athletic 22 year old. Maybe it works maybe it doesn’t but there isn’t a better alternative over the next 5 years.

He could easily be Jabari Parker 2.0. he can score, although he was below average efficiency last year and has never been a good shooter... And that is about it.

As for the Bulls having nothing, Giddey IMO is 100% a better player, and so is Matas, already. So there are 2 guys who play the defensive forward spots that are already ahead of Kuminga - and Giddey shouldn't be forced to defend the perimeter to enable a rim runner / slasher who does nothing else.

Meanwhile, adding Kuminga also reduces opportunities for Essengue. If Essengue is more advanced than some (including myself) fear - having a Kuminga, on potentially an already hard to move contract, either hurts
Noa (another rim runner but who has more defensive upside) or further hurts ability to trade Kuminga.

Yeah, just zero interest. Like Red wrote, would have more interest in Grimes, or even Jalen Green.

When Jabari Parker came to the Bulls he was washed up as he had suffered 2 ACL Tears on the same leg. Kuminga hasn’t had any major injuries like that. The fact is we don’t know what Kuminga is because he hasn’t any any type of consistent playing time. It’s very hard to develop if you are not getting consistent minutes or reps. People act like the Bulls have this great roster that has to be protected at all cost. This team needs an infusion of talent and Kuminga is the only realistic way for the Bulls to improve their roster talent. The Bulls need to take a swing like this. Otherwise the floor will be back of the lottery and ceiling second round of the playoffs. There will be no chance at championship number 7 because there will be no realistic way to get out of this NBA Hell.

Kuminga has played over 5000 minutes so far. That's more than enough to evaluate him.

The Bulls need talent, but many don't view Kuminga as a high upside talent. This isn't a low risk move either, considering how much he wants to be paid.

[Muzbar]

Sign and trade 24M per, swap for Vooch and Terry - ok, otherwise eeeh no

Because of BYC rules, Vuc (by himself) can't be swapped for Kuminga unless you're giving him 40m as his starting salary.

Golden State can only take back half the salary of Kuminga's starting salary.

[dougthonus]

I'll answer that with this. Moving Carter would certainly be a benefit to us in a trade. At a minimum, it opens up a roster spot and that $7 mill is used on a player other than Carter, who should play zero minutes for us. There are plenty of young guys with way more potential we could add. Don't know how a player we're paying $7 mill for basically nothing is not a negative. Even outside a Kuminga trade. Terry fits the same description.

It's generally just practical vs theoretically. Certainly Carter is a theoretical bad thing, but because his deal ends after this year, he has some value as trade matching fodder that replacing him with a vet min guy does not. Moving him in the Kuminga trade theoretically opens up the idea to use the a portion of the MLE on someone, but Kuminga brought in + Giddey coming back will push us right up to the tax line, so we likely won't be able to use our MLE to bring in a more expensive player anyway. Given we'll be under the cap next year, we also probably wouldn't want to do that.

It would open up a roster spot to bring in a different vet min player, but as much as Carter is out of the rotation, not super likely we'd get a meaningful upgrade at the vet min which is generally 11-15th roster spots, Carter's talent level for that is already fine, nor do we really need another vet min player, nor are we chasing something this year where we should be making edge based roster moves as high value plays.

If I had the choice of keeping Carter to possibly have more deadline trade options or just having him off the roster now, but in such a way that we're sitting right near the tax threshold and could really only add in a different vet min guy, I would probably choose to keep him as a trade option.

Reality of the league is usually you're going to have to pay market price if you want good players. Most non-max contracts over $25 mill or so are looked at as bad contracts at time of signing. If that's the going rate for good players, you have to pay to play.

I agree you have to pay market value for good players. I don't think Kuminga is a good player or a player that fits our team or other players. So why do I not want to be the high bidder on him simply because he's available, and I certainly don't want to add assets to the deal to be the high bidder on him.

If you think Kuminga is a good player, feel free, he's a scorer with a 53% TS% that isn't a play maker. I agree that he's a guy that might turn it around in a different situation, but he still is an awful fit for our team and other players. I think he's a dicey guy to have on the MLE going forward. The question really comes down to are you just taking shots in the dark here or are you trying to build something? If you think we're just taking shots, then I'd let Kuminga and Giddey go, and I'd load up on draft picks so that I have a lot more control over the shots I'm taking. I'd use my cap room to get more draft picks. I'd move Coby / Ayo now for more draft picks as well. Then I'd start an OKC like rebuild.

If we're trying to legitimately build something around Giddey, then Kuminga is a god awful fit next to Giddey and will detract from whatever we're doing there. For me, the Kuminga decision is largely about aligning resources. If I'm just gambling on upside then I'd rather go the draft route, if I'm building something I'd rather get players I feel thrive around Giddey. Your view of Kuminga might be different then mine of course.

I like Ayo a lot. He's expiring and just based on what I think his value is from last year, I'd say he's probably replacement level around the league. Especially as a soon to be UFA. I think if we could get a first for him, he'd be gone already. He's in trade rumors, are they turning down firsts? If we can get a non-protected first for Ayo, go for it.

I think they definitely had 1sts on the table for him last year, most of the NBA people I read felt the Bulls wanted to keep him, and that they could have had at least a 1st at the deadline for him. You're right that the value should be less with only one year on his deal left. Hard to say what it is now, but I think given his low price tag and swiss army knife ability that apron teams that are competing will have interest at the deadline. 'However, no way to know really, so just a guess on my part.

For my part, I'd rather have Ayo straight up than Kuminga, because while I think Ayo is just a deep role player, I think he's a winning player that can contribute in a small role and potentially grow to a mid sized role (especially if due to injury), whereas I think Kuminga isn't valuable in a small niche role at all, and isn't good enough to have the big role.

Pretty sure the Bulls would have given Carter up to any team just for cap space and whatevr low compensation they have to get. Not likely to convey second round pick, lmao! He's making almost as much as Tre Jones on a new contract. He's definitely a negative.

Agree with your view of Carter except that it has 0 impact on the team as described above.

We don't even know Kuminga's contract numbers, and you're already considering them a negative. I threw a price as a placeholder. The idea was to turn some low value assets into somehing more valuable.

I described a theory that you haven't really shot down in a meaningful way. If you have to trade positive assets that I place holder value as a non lotto 1st and a 2nd to have the ability to pay a guy more than anyone else wants to pay him, and you do it for the reason of being able to trade that guy later, you will almost always lose, because you've already paid him more than 29 other teams think he is worth to them right now, and you gave up two assets to do it. You could win that move, but it's more likely than not you lose it. This is true whether it is Kuminga or any other player.

Funny how every single article that talks about how Giddey and Kuminga are not likely to get $30 mill also sya it's because they have no leverage. Very few argue that they wouldn't or shouldn't get that in an open market. Not just my opinion, every opinion I've read says their market value is heavily depressed by this market.

I see lots of people that don't think those players are worth that much money.

Miami was also reportedly interested, it's not like there have been no rumors, even in a terrible free agent market.

For Giddey I think this argument holds a lot more than for Kuminga. The Warriors are wide open to trade Kuminga. There are rumors out there, but none are hot or have specifics, and they sound a lot more like his agent trying to drum up interest than genuine interest. You never hear a rumor where Kuminga and another team are worked out on numbers, but that team is negotiating with GS on compensation as an example. Just generic interest where neither the contract nor compensation has worked out. I think people look at Kuminga coming off a down year where he got played out of GS's short rotation as a massive value reducing moment.

With Giddey, the Bulls probably aren't engaging in S&T talks, so no team can really express interest in a way that matters, I agree that Giddey might be squeezed by the market. That said, no guarantees, I believe it was Hollinger who just said "The whole league just saw the Thunder trade Giddey for a role player and get much better for it". That view doesn't have to be correct, but it's definitely a view that is out there en masse and it isn't only people saying his value is depressed due to his situation. That said, either of those possibilities are reasonable to me.

[Red Larrivee]

When Jabari Parker came to the Bulls he was washed up as he had suffered 2 ACL Tears on the same leg. Kuminga hasn’t had any major injuries like that. The fact is we don’t know what Kuminga is because he hasn’t any any type of consistent playing time. It’s very hard to develop if you are not getting consistent minutes or reps. People act like the Bulls have this great roster that has to be protected at all cost. This team needs an infusion of talent and Kuminga is the only realistic way for the Bulls to improve their roster talent. The Bulls need to take a swing like this. Otherwise the floor will be back of the lottery and ceiling second round of the playoffs. There will be no chance at championship number 7 because there will be no realistic way to get out of this NBA Hell.

Outside of the knee injuries, there are a lot of similar arguments being made for Kuminga as there were for Parker:

- "You may never have a chance to add a talent like this again"
- "He's underutilized and could be great offensively"
- "He's just been in the wrong system"
- "Forget about fit and just focus on talent"

Parker only cost you cap space in a year where we had nothing going on. He was signed to a team-friendly, 1+1 deal. So, even though he wasn't any good here, the most the Bulls wasted was time.

Kuminga would cost you assets and future cap space on a 4-year deal. It's a much riskier version of signing Parker.

If money and fit weren't an issue, I would take Kuminga over Ayo without any thought. But, Ayo projects to be cheaper long-term and he fits more lineups. Plus, you may have to throw in draft comp too?

Hell, we could just keep Ayo, let him expire, and sign a Kuminga-level player without giving up any assets to do so.

I just don't see how this is close.

[sco]

When Jabari Parker came to the Bulls he was washed up as he had suffered 2 ACL Tears on the same leg. Kuminga hasn’t had any major injuries like that. The fact is we don’t know what Kuminga is because he hasn’t any any type of consistent playing time. It’s very hard to develop if you are not getting consistent minutes or reps. People act like the Bulls have this great roster that has to be protected at all cost. This team needs an infusion of talent and Kuminga is the only realistic way for the Bulls to improve their roster talent. The Bulls need to take a swing like this. Otherwise the floor will be back of the lottery and ceiling second round of the playoffs. There will be no chance at championship number 7 because there will be no realistic way to get out of this NBA Hell.

Outside of the knee injuries, there are a lot of similar arguments being made for Kuminga as there were for Parker:

- "You may never have a chance to add a talent like this again"
- "He's underutilized and could be great offensively"
- "He's just been in the wrong system"
- "Forget about fit and just focus on talent"

Parker only cost you cap space in a year where we had nothing going on. He was signed to a team-friendly, 1+1 deal. So, even though he wasn't any good here, the most the Bulls wasted was time.

Kuminga would cost you assets and future cap space on a 4-year deal. It's a much riskier version of signing Parker.

If money and fit weren't an issue, I would take Kuminga over Ayo without any thought. But, Ayo projects to be cheaper long-term and he fits more lineups. Plus, you may have to throw in draft comp too?

Hell, we could just keep Ayo, let him expire, and sign a Kuminga-level player without giving up any assets to do so.

I just don't see how this is close.

I think a deal, at any cost, for Kuminga comes with opportunity costs that arguably offset the value of adding a young guy with potential. On the premise that we would want to understand how successful a new core of Coby/Giddey/Matas can be when surrounding them with complementary pieces, Kuminga would mess that up from the perspective that we could no longer put those 3 next to a good POA defender and a good rim protector (after Vuc) as he would likely bump the POA defender (likely Okoro) out of the starting line-up. He'd also require 17-20 shots per game, which IMO, will detract from Matas' development into a 2nd or 3rd option this season (IMO the most important thing this season). Lastly, Kuminga's deal, on top of our other salary would likely prevent us from adding a (better) MAX/Near-MAX guy to the roster via trade or FA.

[Am2626]

I could convince myself that Kuminga might be worth it if he signs for 20M AAV and it only costs Ayo to get him. Anything more than this is probably too much for me.

Read on Twitter

As a counter point, here's 10 minutes of Kuminga just detonating on dudes.

Watch on YouTube

;t=204s

The time that Kuminga sat on the bench when Jimmy Butler was traded to GSW might have been a blessing for him. The things that the first video mentioned that Kuminga struggled with in terms of making good decisions and being more locked in defensively are areas that Butter excels in. It’s evident how athletic he is and just what his raw talent is as he is still only 22 years old. Although a small sample size he did look really good in the 4 games that he played big minutes in when Steph Curry got injured in the playoffs.

[Infinity2152]

I'll answer that with this. Moving Carter would certainly be a benefit to us in a trade. At a minimum, it opens up a roster spot and that $7 mill is used on a player other than Carter, who should play zero minutes for us. There are plenty of young guys with way more potential we could add. Don't know how a player we're paying $7 mill for basically nothing is not a negative. Even outside a Kuminga trade. Terry fits the same description.

It's generally just practical vs theoretically. Certainly Carter is a theoretical bad thing, but because his deal ends after this year, he has some value as trade matching fodder that replacing him with a vet min guy does not. Moving him in the Kuminga trade theoretically opens up the idea to use the a portion of the MLE on someone, but Kuminga brought in + Giddey coming back will push us right up to the tax line, so we likely won't be able to use our MLE to bring in a more expensive player anyway. Given we'll be under the cap next year, we also probably wouldn't want to do that.

It would open up a roster spot to bring in a different vet min player, but as much as Carter is out of the rotation, not super likely we'd get a meaningful upgrade at the vet min which is generally 11-15th roster spots, Carter's talent level for that is already fine, nor do we really need another vet min player, nor are we chasing something this year where we should be making edge based roster moves as high value plays.

If I had the choice of keeping Carter to possibly have more deadline trade options or just having him off the roster now, but in such a way that we're sitting right near the tax threshold and could really only add in a different vet min guy, I would probably choose to keep him as a trade option.

Reality of the league is usually you're going to have to pay market price if you want good players. Most non-max contracts over $25 mill or so are looked at as bad contracts at time of signing. If that's the going rate for good players, you have to pay to play.

I agree you have to pay market value for good players. I don't think Kuminga is a good player or a player that fits our team or other players. So why do I not want to be the high bidder on him simply because he's available, and I certainly don't want to add assets to the deal to be the high bidder on him.

If you think Kuminga is a good player, feel free, he's a scorer with a 53% TS% that isn't a play maker. I agree that he's a guy that might turn it around in a different situation, but he still is an awful fit for our team and other players. I think he's a dicey guy to have on the MLE going forward. The question really comes down to are you just taking shots in the dark here or are you trying to build something? If you think we're just taking shots, then I'd let Kuminga and Giddey go, and I'd load up on draft picks so that I have a lot more control over the shots I'm taking. I'd use my cap room to get more draft picks. I'd move Coby / Ayo now for more draft picks as well. Then I'd start an OKC like rebuild.

If we're trying to legitimately build something around Giddey, then Kuminga is a god awful fit next to Giddey and will detract from whatever we're doing there. For me, the Kuminga decision is largely about aligning resources. If I'm just gambling on upside then I'd rather go the draft route, if I'm building something I'd rather get players I feel thrive around Giddey. Your view of Kuminga might be different then mine of course.

I like Ayo a lot. He's expiring and just based on what I think his value is from last year, I'd say he's probably replacement level around the league. Especially as a soon to be UFA. I think if we could get a first for him, he'd be gone already. He's in trade rumors, are they turning down firsts? If we can get a non-protected first for Ayo, go for it.

I think they definitely had 1sts on the table for him last year, most of the NBA people I read felt the Bulls wanted to keep him, and that they could have had at least a 1st at the deadline for him. You're right that the value should be less with only one year on his deal left. Hard to say what it is now, but I think given his low price tag and swiss army knife ability that apron teams that are competing will have interest at the deadline. 'However, no way to know really, so just a guess on my part.

For my part, I'd rather have Ayo straight up than Kuminga, because while I think Ayo is just a deep role player, I think he's a winning player that can contribute in a small role and potentially grow to a mid sized role (especially if due to injury), whereas I think Kuminga isn't valuable in a small niche role at all, and isn't good enough to have the big role.

Pretty sure the Bulls would have given Carter up to any team just for cap space and whatevr low compensation they have to get. Not likely to convey second round pick, lmao! He's making almost as much as Tre Jones on a new contract. He's definitely a negative.

Agree with your view of Carter except that it has 0 impact on the team as described above.

We don't even know Kuminga's contract numbers, and you're already considering them a negative. I threw a price as a placeholder. The idea was to turn some low value assets into somehing more valuable.

I described a theory that you haven't really shot down in a meaningful way. If you have to trade positive assets that I place holder value as a non lotto 1st and a 2nd to have the ability to pay a guy more than anyone else wants to pay him, and you do it for the reason of being able to trade that guy later, you will almost always lose, because you've already paid him more than 29 other teams think he is worth to them right now, and you gave up two assets to do it. You could win that move, but it's more likely than not you lose it. This is true whether it is Kuminga or any other player.

Funny how every single article that talks about how Giddey and Kuminga are not likely to get $30 mill also sya it's because they have no leverage. Very few argue that they wouldn't or shouldn't get that in an open market. Not just my opinion, every opinion I've read says their market value is heavily depressed by this market.

I see lots of people that don't think those players are worth that much money.

Miami was also reportedly interested, it's not like there have been no rumors, even in a terrible free agent market.

For Giddey I think this argument holds a lot more than for Kuminga. The Warriors are wide open to trade Kuminga. There are rumors out there, but none are hot or have specifics, and they sound a lot more like his agent trying to drum up interest than genuine interest. You never hear a rumor where Kuminga and another team are worked out on numbers, but that team is negotiating with GS on compensation as an example. Just generic interest where neither the contract nor compensation has worked out. I think people look at Kuminga coming off a down year where he got played out of GS's short rotation as a massive value reducing moment.

With Giddey, the Bulls probably aren't engaging in S&T talks, so no team can really express interest in a way that matters, I agree that Giddey might be squeezed by the market. That said, no guarantees, I believe it was Hollinger who just said "The whole league just saw the Thunder trade Giddey for a role player and get much better for it". That view doesn't have to be correct, but it's definitely a view that is out there en masse and it isn't only people saying his value is depressed due to his situation. That said, either of those possibilities are reasonable to me.

Here's the thing. Seems most of your objections to Kuminga are personal assessments of Kuminga. Can we agree his current free market value would be somewhere between $20 mill and $35 mill? If the Warriors are offering him $20 mill now, that's basically his floor. Several teams have been interested in trading for him taht know he's looking for more than $20 mill. Therefore those teams see/saw him worth that contract.

There's no such thing as a $20 mill, or $30 mill player objectively, but we know what we mean when we say that. Not saying it's true, but there appear to be multiple teams that would be willing to pay Kuminga $20+ mill, or they wouldn't even get into the discussion. I don't think there's a team in the league that would take Ayo and Carter right now for $20 mill. Just like with Coby, Ayo's value is ZERO after the deadline. He's an unrestricted free agent. We literally could trade him and re-sign him a few months later in FA. Carter's value is zero after the deadline. Kuminga would be here as a trade piece.

Ayo played pretty bad last year and is expiring. This could be the lowest his value will ever be. The market being the way it is, whatever Kuminga signs for, it's at a discount to what he would sign in an open market, imo. So discount is automatically factored in. People comparing him to Pat will are missing one point. Most people thought $18 mill was too much at time of signing. Haven't seen an analyst that says $18 mill is too much for Kuminga. Most view him as a $20-$30 mill prospect, which means he holds the value of a $20+ mill prospect.

When signing a 32 year old player, the expectation is they will decline. When signing a 22 year old player, it's reversed. Seems every objection to Kuminga don't work if he increases his value, which is the norm at 22.

What possible value do Ayo or Carter hold past this season, as things currently stand?

Bro, you keep saying 29 teams are passing on him. How many teams are looking for starting power forwards or don't already have better power forwards? Or just drafted Cooper Flagg, etc. Less than half? Maybe 10? GS can only take back half the money, so for many teams they'd have to add an additional $10-$15 mill to their cap. How many of those 10 have that amount of cap space to not hurt them badly? Maybe 5? Is there any chance a team could just make Kuminga $15 mill AAV contract and the Warriors don't immediately match, so that team has wasted their time?

The only team that could have made an offer without doing crazy maneuvers was the Nets, who said at the beginning they weren't bidding on free agents. It's not 1 team out of 30. If the Warriors, Bulls and Heat are showing interest, that's more like 3 of the possible 5 or 6 teams showing interest that have legit openings for PF. Matter of fact, WE don't even have one. I'm looking at him purely as a young asset we're guaranteed to get at a discount. Even if you think whatever price he gets is too much, the market is dictating he's going to get less than he would otherwise.

If you never add $20-$30 mill players because you think every one is overpaid, you'll never have those level players to use in trade for a star. Players like that get traded every year for positive return. You're never getting a star with Ayo and Carter as big parts of the deal. You might with Kuminga.

Exactly why do you think the prevailing view around the league seems to place Kuminga's value between $20-$30 mill, and you think he's absolutely trash and going to get worse? Couple a months ago, opinion in here was Giddey shouldn't get more than the MLE. Now it's he shouldn't get more than $22-$25 mill. When, he's an Allstar, it'll be that he isn't worth $30 mill. If he's MVP, the year before the line will be, "He's not worth max!"

[MGB8]

Kuminga is one year younger than Patrick Williams. Like Pat, we have a body of work to look at, and it hasn’t shown consistent improvement. He also doesn’t have injuries to use as an excuse. His shooting from range has not improved. His sub 70% FT shooting has not improved. His rebounding and passing have not improved.

He drew more fouls last year and that is the one thing that looks like it has improved… but I hesitate to rely on FT shooting as an indication of player quality.

Now, you do have guys like Julius Randle that improve more in mid 20s after sort of being flatline in early 20s. But Kuminga reminds me more of RJ Barrett - an athletic guy who is what he is. And, honestly, Barrett has flashed more.

Would the folks trading Ayo and filler for will-be-23 before the season to pay Kuminga 30 M AAV trade the same package for 25 y/o this season RJ Barrett, who is at 27.7M this year and 29.6 next?

[MikeDC]

1. The key issue here is financial and relates to Patrick Williams.
2. Contrary to the above, Kuminga has demonstrated a lot more ability over his time in the NBA than Pat. If you think there's just a "slight" difference between them, I think you are pretty far off the mark. Kuminga is a starting level player at worst, and has some upside. Pat is a bench player with a long-term contract.
3. At the outset of the off-season, there was a lot of reporting that the Bulls wanted trade away Pat and wanted Kuminga. Over time, the talk of both diminished.

Why?

It's really simple. Nobody wants Pat on that contract. And without moving him, it doesn't make sense for the Bulls salary structure to bring in Kuminga.

The only way I saw forward would have been to trade Pat's bad long-term money for even worse short-term money. For example, Pat, Carter, and change for Beale might have worked. You don't get out from under the money, but you turn it into something better. Except that didn't work either, because Phoenix decided it needed to get out from under the money.

The bottom line is, Pat is one of the worst contracts in the league and nobody wants him. Because we're paying him $18M per year, if we could trade him and bringing Kuminga at $25M, that'd make some sense. $7M is worth it to upgrade from Pat to Kuminga. But, since we can't trade Pat, we'd just be paying him $18M to sit on the bench while Kuminga gets +$25M and we pay $43M in total. That ain't gonna work financially.

To add Kuminga, the player you have to send out is Pat.

[MGB8]

Bulls should have cap space next year. Wouldn’t be surprised if Kuminga ends up taking the QO (think it is a very different situation than Bulls and Giddey). Bulls could always bid on him next year (when not that many teams will have space) if Kuminga shows he is worth the investment.

Right now, I think he is a non-fitting empty calorie player. A combo forward version of Zach Lavine, but not as good.

[jnrjr79]

Here's the thing. Seems most of your objections to Kuminga are personal assessments of Kuminga. Can we agree his current free market value would be somewhere between $20 mill and $35 mill? If the Warriors are offering him $20 mill now, that's basically his floor. Several teams have been interested in trading for him taht know he's looking for more than $20 mill. Therefore those teams see/saw him worth that contract.

Re: the value, this is probably true, but who knows. We have one report of the Warriors offering that sum, which may or may not be true, and it seems if they do sign him, it's only to try to trade him down the line rather than lose him for nothing.

I don't think a single team in the NBA would offer him anything approaching $35M, but I could be wrong.

There's no such thing as a $20 mill, or $30 mill player objectively, but we know what we mean when we say that. Not saying it's true, but there appear to be multiple teams that would be willing to pay Kuminga $20+ mill, or they wouldn't even get into the discussion.

If this are true, I suspect a trade would have already occurred.

I don't think there's a team in the league that would take Ayo and Carter right now for $20 mill. Just like with Coby, Ayo's value is ZERO after the deadline. He's an unrestricted free agent. We literally could trade him and re-sign him a few months later in FA. Carter's value is zero after the deadline. Kuminga would be here as a trade piece.

My guess is Ayo's value is right around the MLE. It won't shock me if he gets a full MLE offer if he hits UFA.

Carter has no value aside from expiring salary, agreed.

Kuminga could have some value to the Warriors as a guy you sign to then flip for stuff down the line. For the Bulls, that wouldn't make much sense, because you can't just sign him, you have to trade stuff for him. That's a different value proposition.

And, IMO, Ayo is a much better fit with this existing roster than Kuminga is, so if anything, I'd be looking to get an extension done with him.

Ayo played pretty bad last year and is expiring. This could be the lowest his value will ever be. The market being the way it is, whatever Kuminga signs for, it's at a discount to what he would sign in an open market, imo. So discount is automatically factored in. People comparing him to Pat will are missing one point. Most people thought $18 mill was too much at time of signing. Haven't seen an analyst that says $18 mill is too much for Kuminga. Most view him as a $20-$30 mill prospect, which means he holds the value of a $20+ mill prospect.

When signing a 32 year old player, the expectation is they will decline. When signing a 22 year old player, it's reversed. Seems every objection to Kuminga don't work if he increases his value, which is the norm at 22.

Young players get worse with some frequency. Kuminga got worse last year. If you want to trade for him, you're betting on improvement, but you can't assume it will actually occur.

What possible value do Ayo or Carter hold past this season, as things currently stand?

Ayo has value if you ink him to another deal. Carter has value as expiring salary for next offseason. But IMO, this isn't really even the question. It's do you even want Kuminga at $25M/season or whatever.

Bro, you keep saying 29 teams are passing on him. How many teams are looking for starting power forwards or don't already have better power forwards? Or just drafted Cooper Flagg, etc. Less than half? Maybe 10? GS can only take back half the money, so for many teams they'd have to add an additional $10-$15 mill to their cap. How many of those 10 have that amount of cap space to not hurt them badly? Maybe 5? Is there any chance a team could just make Kuminga $15 mill AAV contract and the Warriors don't immediately match, so that team has wasted their time?

The only team that could have made an offer without doing crazy maneuvers was the Nets, who said at the beginning they weren't bidding on free agents. It's not 1 team out of 30. If the Warriors, Bulls and Heat are showing interest, that's more like 3 of the possible 5 or 6 teams showing interest that have legit openings for PF. Matter of fact, WE don't even have one. I'm looking at him purely as a young asset we're guaranteed to get at a discount. Even if you think whatever price he gets is too much, the market is dictating he's going to get less than he would otherwise.

We don't really have reports that the Bulls or Heat are "showing interest." Most of the reporting seems predicated on historical interest rather than current interest.