Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, July 21-23

[Fairview4Life]

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I swear to God if Varsho, who I love, comes back and the team stops hitting and starts losing, this board is going to be a complete nightmare.

[Raps in 4]

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I swear to God if Varsho, who I love, comes back and the team stops hitting and starts losing, this board is going to be a complete nightmare.

He'd be replacing a scrub like Straw. As bad as Varsho is with the bat, he's still a league average hitter when he's dialed in.

[WuTang_OG]

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[Parataxis]

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I swear to God if Varsho, who I love, comes back and the team stops hitting and starts losing, this board is going to be a complete nightmare.

The nice thing about baseball is that one person being in the line up shouldn't significantly* affect how well the other 8 people are making contact. It's not like hockey or basketball where somebody who doesn't know what they're doing on the ice will reduce the effectiveness of their linemates by their presence.

So if the team does stop hitting once Varsho comes back, we can safely attribute that to regression to the mean, rather than Varsho making everybody else worse.

*I chose 'significantly' to avoid any arguments about protection and etc...

[WuTang_OG]

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[Mehar]

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I swear to God if Varsho, who I love, comes back and the team stops hitting and starts losing, this board is going to be a complete nightmare.

He'd be replacing a scrub like Straw. As bad as Varsho is with the bat, he's still a league average hitter when he's dialed in.

Varsho was hitting .207 when he got hurt. When he's dialed in, the power is there. But the hitting numbers overall, Strikeouts and on base, was still below average. I would use him as the Myles Straw role to start. Have him as a Late inning defender, and starting mostly against Right Handed Pitchers. He has more power than Straw also. Straw has been terrible hitting wise also for the past 4 to 5 weeks. So, Straw can take a seat on the bench. Just have Varsho hit 9th, and have him concentrate on playing great defense.

[Randle McMurphy]

Did you just use the Jays full season (from the +221 2015) to come to that number vs the 100 games for the Yankees this season?

Isn't that exactly the point everyone else is making?

Or were you using the Blue Jays top 10 run diff games from their first 100-ish games from 2015?

I was using the top 10 games from the Jays 2015 season which were just about identical to the Yankees’ top 10 games this season thus far to show that, yes, beating up opponents to that extent isn’t unusual for a very good team (which both the 2015 Jays were and the 2025 Yankees are).

The fact the Yankees have blown out teams often this season is an extremely positive thing (and indicative of a strong team), not a negative thing and trying to suggest it isn’t incredibly specious. If anything, that the Yankees have been doing that only 2/3 into the season is even more impressive.

And I have no real idea what point anybody else is making because nothing about what anybody else is arguing about the Yankees here makes any sense. Run differential is an important indicator of team strength (run scoring and run prevention is sort of the entire game) and it is statically far more predictive than a team’s actual record on how a team will perform going forward. The fact that NYY are adept at blowing teams out also doesn’t mean they are somehow bad at winning close games or fatally flawed against good teams (and if they’re fatally flawed, what does that make the Jays who have a decidedly worse offense than them?)

In summary: The Yankees have a very good run differential this year, which both suggests that they are a good team and that they will continue to be one going forward. Trying to argue differently because they blew teams out a lot (which, again, is a good thing!) goes against literally everything we understand about baseball.

You are reading things at a surface level.

The Blue Jays of 2015 blew out teams, 10 of which over a full season was roughly equivalent to the Yankees 10 best in 2/3rds of a season. The rub is that the Jays also beat teams by a typical distribution (some by only a run or two, and some by a few runs) these middling wins added another +100 runs to their differential. Those wins are missing for the Yankees. What does that say about their team?

You seem to think blow outs are the only thing that matters and their inability to win close-ish games is the anomaly. Others are postulating the opposite, that the Yankees aren't really good, since they can't win close games, and their blowouts are the anomaly.

That's not surface level, that's literally the basics. Teams who score more runs than they allow tend to be better than the teams that don't and run differential is far more predictive of how a team is going to perform going forward than a team's actual record.

You also don't get to just cut out 10 of their best games and say that the team they are is what is represented by the remainder. If we did that with the Jays, they'd have a run differential under -50 and be considered one of the worst teams in the league. You are what you are, blowouts and all.

[Randle McMurphy]

Varsho will add significant value even if he doesn't hit given his defense/baserunning, but his presence increases the need for the addition of an RHB. The Jays, as constructed right now, are a team that opponents will look to attack with LHPs (Barger/Lukes/Varsho/Gimenez are effectively neutralized by doing so).

[johanliebert]

And with that walk, it sort of reaffirms the mistake to pull Gausman

Can’t wait for more of that nonsense in a playoff game too

lmao and this is after Gausman gave up a walk and single in the 8th. A game where the jays won 4-1.

[SharoneWright]

And with that walk, it sort of reaffirms the mistake to pull Gausman

Can’t wait for more of that nonsense in a playoff game too

lmao and this is after Gausman gave up a walk and single in the 8th. A game where the jays won 4-1.

If you think Gausman pitched the 8th, you're incorrect. That's kind of what a lot of posters here were hoping would happen, considering he had only thrown 86 pitches, and it would be more ideal to not burn your 2 (3?!) highest leverage relievers in Game 1 of a 3 game series vs the Yankees holding a 3 run lead. Also, even if you forgot Gausman's last inning pitched was the 7th, he didn't surrender a walk or a hit in that inning either - unlike Little did in the 8th.


YankeesTop 7th
K. Gausman pitching for TOR
NYY
TOR

Wells flied out to left.
1
4

Volpe grounded out to pitcher.
1
4
Pitch Type MPH
1Ground Out
Slider 80

Peraza struck out swinging.
1
4
0 Runs, 0 Hits, 0 Errors

[Asianiac_24]

What’s our run differential without Bowden Francis ?

[WuTang_OG]

What’s our run differential without Bowden Francis ?

To add to this

The jays are 2 different teams since may 28

April and may they were dog shyt not hitting

Since then we have been one of top hitting teams in the major leagues

This whole run differential needs context

[Randle McMurphy]

And with that walk, it sort of reaffirms the mistake to pull Gausman

Can’t wait for more of that nonsense in a playoff game too

lmao and this is after Gausman gave up a walk and single in the 8th. A game where the jays won 4-1.

Looks like someone didn't actually watch the game

[Randle McMurphy]

What’s our run differential without Bowden Francis ?

Much better than it was without him. Have made that exact point in the "Is the record for real" thread as to why there are good reasons to think the Jays are better than their overall run differential.

[Randle McMurphy]

And with that walk, it sort of reaffirms the mistake to pull Gausman

Can’t wait for more of that nonsense in a playoff game too

lmao and this is after Gausman gave up a walk and single in the 8th. A game where the jays won 4-1.

If you think Gausman pitched the 8th, you're incorrect. That's kind of what a lot of posters here were hoping would happen, considering he had only thrown 86 pitches, and it would be more ideal to not burn your 2 (3?!) highest leverage relievers in Game 1 of a 3 game series vs the Yankees holding a 3 run lead. Also, even if you forgot Gausman's last inning pitched was the 7th, he didn't surrender a walk or a hit in that inning either - unlike Little did in the 8th.


YankeesTop 7th
K. Gausman pitching for TOR
NYY
TOR

Wells flied out to left.
1
4

Volpe grounded out to pitcher.
1
4
Pitch Type MPH
1Ground Out
Slider 80

Peraza struck out swinging.
1
4
0 Runs, 0 Hits, 0 Errors

Yeah, maybe Gausman gives a leadoff walk or even a HR that inning but not giving him the chance to do it led to burning two RPs that we wouldn't otherwise have had to use. Considering how many close games this team plays, that's probably gonna end up being a factor this week.

[WuTang_OG]

The Toronto Blue Jays have a run differential of +57 runs since May 28, 2025.

The Houston Astros have a run differential of +27 since May 28, 2025

The New York Yankees have a run differential of -3 runs since May 28, 2025.

The Detroit Tigers have a run differential of -3 runs since May 28, 2025

Here are the run differentials for all American League teams since May 28, 2025, based on available data:

Rangers: +66
Blue Jays: +57
Rays: +50
Astros: +27
Red Sox: +43
Angels: -6
Orioles: -9
Tigers: -3
Yankees: -3
Mariners: -3
Royals: -14
Guardians: -18
White Sox: -20
Twins: -42
Athletics: -54

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[WuTang_OG]

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[JaysRule15]

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Bruh that's such a scary photo of Max lol.

[bluerap23]

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I swear to God if Varsho, who I love, comes back and the team stops hitting and starts losing, this board is going to be a complete nightmare.

He'd be replacing a scrub like Straw. As bad as Varsho is with the bat, he's still a league average hitter when he's dialed in.

A league average hitter that strikes out 1/3. Just saying...

[JN]

Saw some twitter rumbling the other day of Steven Kwan to Toronto. Kwan would be an upgrade, that being said I we have decent options out there while we mix things. Lukes is obviously not Kwan, but feel like upgrades / or depth are more needed in the rotation and pen.

I feel it would be a mistake to use the big assets it would take to get Kwan instead of on pitching