Warriors exploring S&T for Kuminga

[EvanZ]

If you were named GM today, what would you offer him? I think 20m this year is the best scenario for gsw as he won't be too upset with that money (I hope) and it's a large enough contract that, if he's playing ok, it's easily tradeable for a next max deal (along with moody, buddy, filler). It's not so large that, barring a few disastrous scenarios, he probably won't be a negative contract and, at worst, just filler with upside.

Evan was talking about it needing to be in the Goldilocks zone so if he has a JP3 like regression, it won't be an albatross like 32m/yr was for poole. I think that zone is 20-25. How about you?

I mean he never had anywhere near the highs Poole had so I'm not sure "regression" is the issue. It's more like you pay him $30M/yr and he literally is just the same dude again.

If he is the same dude he was his first 3 season (60% eFG, high FT rate, iffy off ball defense, underwhelming rebounding), I don't think 25M/yr will be hard to trade. No one is talking 30M outside of his camp (or Giddey's, for that matter).

I just meant the Dubs didn't think poole would sabotage the championship defending year, his ow season, team, and career when they gave him the deal so that "regression" really did make him almost untradeable. We were lucky people were still blaming dray and the punch. Another 3 months and he would have been untradeable until this summer (after a better year).

I don't think JK's floor is that low but agree he hasn't hit the same highs as JP did. 4/132 or whatever JP got isn't what JK is looking at. Almost half.

I mean bro if he is the same guy in his fifth season as his first he is not worth anywhere close to $25M. The $25M and up figures are predicated on him getting MUCH MUCH better.

[Onus]

I can be talked into a ayo, terry, Phillips and a swap for jk.

Curry/podz/terry
Melton/buddy/ayo
Jb/moody
Dray/phillips/gui
Horford/post/tjd

Add Ben Simmons to be the backup 4

[statsman]

I can be talked into a ayo, terry, Phillips and a swap for jk.

Or a similar deal. Overpaying ($30M+/yr) to make JK happy is out of the question. Having him play on the QO seems very unlikely. Picking some middle ground with the understanding he'll be tradable on or after January 15th has several issues, including the belief that Kuminga may not agree to a lesser deal near the $20M/yr average.

I really don't know what the Warriors expected to happen when they entered this offseason and July 1st. Maybe what's happening is all part of their plan. Maybe they've been blindsided by the lack of interest around the league, or they're confused that Kuminga wouldn't lower his contract demands substantially to get one signed.

On the surface, this has turned into an ugly offseason.

[EvanZ]

Give me Jalen instead.

[Onus]

Give me Jalen instead.

Sure ayo and Jalen for jk at 24m works.

[statsman]

Give me Jalen instead.

Sure ayo and Jalen for jk at 24m works.

And hard caps the Warriors at the first apron. I don't see Lacob allowing that to happen.

Maybe trade one of those players to the Warriors, with the other going to a 3rd team. The 3rd team would then send the Warriors a player making less enough to avoid hitting the first apron hard cap.

[vvoland]

I mean he never had anywhere near the highs Poole had so I'm not sure "regression" is the issue. It's more like you pay him $30M/yr and he literally is just the same dude again.

If he is the same dude he was his first 3 season (60% eFG, high FT rate, iffy off ball defense, underwhelming rebounding), I don't think 25M/yr will be hard to trade. No one is talking 30M outside of his camp (or Giddey's, for that matter).

I just meant the Dubs didn't think poole would sabotage the championship defending year, his ow season, team, and career when they gave him the deal so that "regression" really did make him almost untradeable. We were lucky people were still blaming dray and the punch. Another 3 months and he would have been untradeable until this summer (after a better year).

I don't think JK's floor is that low but agree he hasn't hit the same highs as JP did. 4/132 or whatever JP got isn't what JK is looking at. Almost half.

I mean bro if he is the same guy in his fifth season as his first he is not worth anywhere close to $25M. The $25M and up figures are predicated on him getting MUCH MUCH better.

I didn't mean for my words to be taken literally, that's why i provided examples of what I meant by "the same guy."

In case that wasn't clear, I meant an efficient scorer with a high FT rate and shaky off ball defense. If he's back to being that guy and doesn't get hurt for another 35+ games, I don't think we'll have much trouble moving him at ~25M average salary.

Last year was tough for him from an efficiency and health standpoint. Both were big (only?) feathers in his cap the first 3 years, not so much last year. If he's back to being healthy and efficient, 25M will be easily movable. Probably not enough to get you back a real starter, if he doesn't improve in other areas, but as contract filler? As long as he's still 22 (and he is), we can move that contract.

He's likely easily moveable at that number until he's 25 and the contract will likely expire before he turns it. It's crazy what a 3pt shot does for a player. If JK can shoot 37% from 3 for his first 45 games next year, he may have immense trade value. If it's 30%, he may have a somewhat negative contract even at 22M.

For reference, he shot 37% his 2nd year in the league and 30.5% last year. That difference is 9 made threes over the entire season, at the volume he was taking. Even at 4 3PTA/gm, that 7% difference is 21 made 3s over 82 games or 1 more make every ~4 games. Crazy how small the margins are

[EvanZ]

If he is the same dude he was his first 3 season (60% eFG, high FT rate, iffy off ball defense, underwhelming rebounding), I don't think 25M/yr will be hard to trade. No one is talking 30M outside of his camp (or Giddey's, for that matter).

I just meant the Dubs didn't think poole would sabotage the championship defending year, his ow season, team, and career when they gave him the deal so that "regression" really did make him almost untradeable. We were lucky people were still blaming dray and the punch. Another 3 months and he would have been untradeable until this summer (after a better year).

I don't think JK's floor is that low but agree he hasn't hit the same highs as JP did. 4/132 or whatever JP got isn't what JK is looking at. Almost half.

I mean bro if he is the same guy in his fifth season as his first he is not worth anywhere close to $25M. The $25M and up figures are predicated on him getting MUCH MUCH better.

I didn't mean for my words to be taken literally, that's why i provided examples of what I meant by "the same guy."

In case that wasn't clear, I meant an efficient scorer with a high FT rate and shaky off ball defense. If he's back to being [b]that guy and doesn't get hurt for another 35+ games, I don't think we'll have much trouble moving him at ~25M average salary. [/b]

Last year was tough for him from an efficiency and health standpoint. Both were big (only?) feathers in his cap the first 3 years, not so much last year. If he's back to being healthy and efficient, 25M will be easily movable. Probably not enough to get you back a real starter, if he doesn't improve in other areas, but as contract filler? As long as he's still 22 (and he is), we can move that contract.

He's likely easily moveable at that number until he's 25 and the contract will likely expire before he turns it. It's crazy what a 3pt shot does for a player. If JK can shoot 37% from 3 for his first 45 games next year, he may have immense trade value. If it's 30%, he may have a somewhat negative contract even at 22M.

For reference, he shot 37% his 2nd year in the league and 30.5% last year. That difference is 9 made threes over the entire season, at the volume he was taking. Even at 4 3PTA/gm, that 7% difference is 21 made 3s over 82 games or 1 more make every ~4 games. Crazy how small the margins are

You were clear and I got it the second time as well. He's been the same guy for 4 years. Your argument makes no sense, I hope you can see that.

The mistake you're making is that he was somehow more efficient in previous seasons. Well, sure, but at the cost of usage. Teams want efficient players that also can handle high volume. It's the old Tyson Chandler problem. Yeah my guy was like 70% TS but on 11% USG. You can't magically increase usage (for everyone) without giving up efficiency. It's the same for Kuminga more or less. The second you try to give him more volume, he can't maintain that level of efficiency because his most efficient plays come off cuts, fast breaks etc. He's a **** ball handler with a loose handle and no wiggle. That hasn't changed. As soon as he would become the focus of an offense it would all fall apart.

So no, he's not going to get $25M simply by "going back to that guy". "That" guy is not nearly good enough.

[vvoland]

You were clear and I got it the second time as well. He's been the same guy for 4 years. Your argument makes no sense, I hope you can see that.

The mistake you're making is that he was somehow more efficient in previous seasons. Well, sure, but at the cost of usage. Teams want efficient players that also can handle high volume. It's the old Tyson Chandler problem. Yeah my guy was like 70% TS but on 11% USG. You can't magically increase usage (for everyone) without giving up efficiency. It's the same for Kuminga more or less. The second you try to give him more volume, he can't maintain that level of efficiency because his most efficient plays come off cuts, fast breaks etc. He's a **** ball handler with a loose handle and no wiggle. That hasn't changed. As soon as he would become the focus of an offense it would all fall apart.

So no, he's not going to get $25M simply by "going back to that guy". "That" guy is not nearly good enough.

Cool story, bro. Too bad the numbers don't back it up. Here is his TS% for his first 3 years:

.600
.597
.598

Here's the usage:
22.7
19.6
24.1

This year he was .535 on 27.4 usage. I think it was the injury, 3pt %, and early season struggles. You think it was driven by a 3% increase in usage. Agree to disagree.

Other players that got 25M/yr on similar efficiency/usage as 1 way offensive players? Randle and Naz are two players that the wolves signed, just this summer, to bigger contracts than JK is gonna get. No one is calling them defensive stalwarts or creative savants.

[EvanZ]

You were clear and I got it the second time as well. He's been the same guy for 4 years. Your argument makes no sense, I hope you can see that.

The mistake you're making is that he was somehow more efficient in previous seasons. Well, sure, but at the cost of usage. Teams want efficient players that also can handle high volume. It's the old Tyson Chandler problem. Yeah my guy was like 70% TS but on 11% USG. You can't magically increase usage (for everyone) without giving up efficiency. It's the same for Kuminga more or less. The second you try to give him more volume, he can't maintain that level of efficiency because his most efficient plays come off cuts, fast breaks etc. He's a **** ball handler with a loose handle and no wiggle. That hasn't changed. As soon as he would become the focus of an offense it would all fall apart.

So no, he's not going to get $25M simply by "going back to that guy". "That" guy is not nearly good enough.

Cool story, bro. Too bad the numbers don't back it up. Here is his TS% for his first 3 years:

.600
.597
.598

Here's the usage:
22.7
19.6
24.1

This year he was .535 on 27.4 usage. I think it was the injury, 3pt %, and early season struggles. You think it was driven by a 3% increase in usage. Agree to disagree.

Other players that got 25M/yr on similar efficiency/usage as 1 way offensive players? Randle and Naz are two players that the wolves signed, just this summer, to bigger contracts than JK is gonna get. No one is calling them defensive stalwarts or creative savants.

thanks for posting the numbers that prove my point bro.

[statsman]

Take a look at JK's numbers from the last 1/3rd of his 3rd season. They started veering away from his earlier career numbers, and they do give an indication of a pattern (more usage, a lot lower eFG) that continued into last season prior to his injury (the numbers prior to the injury aren't much better than for the whole season).

Kuminga on a high-usage game plan, which is his desire, is not going to lead to a winning record.

The only issue completely ignored by many is Kuminga's tendency to hurt his knee. Generally when playing a lot, he's had at least three episodes with a week or more of missed time due to "knee" issues. Can't confirm whether some of the single game sits were due to a sore knee.

Kuminga has terrible mechanics when landing on his dunks, rebound attempts, and even his jumpshots. I bet with regular usage as a starter, he'll miss a lot of games.

[vvoland]

You were clear and I got it the second time as well. He's been the same guy for 4 years. Your argument makes no sense, I hope you can see that.

The mistake you're making is that he was somehow more efficient in previous seasons. Well, sure, but at the cost of usage. Teams want efficient players that also can handle high volume. It's the old Tyson Chandler problem. Yeah my guy was like 70% TS but on 11% USG. You can't magically increase usage (for everyone) without giving up efficiency. It's the same for Kuminga more or less. The second you try to give him more volume, he can't maintain that level of efficiency because his most efficient plays come off cuts, fast breaks etc. He's a **** ball handler with a loose handle and no wiggle. That hasn't changed. As soon as he would become the focus of an offense it would all fall apart.

So no, he's not going to get $25M simply by "going back to that guy". "That" guy is not nearly good enough.

Cool story, bro. Too bad the numbers don't back it up. Here is his TS% for his first 3 years:

.600
.597
.598

Here's the usage:
22.7
19.6
24.1

This year he was .535 on 27.4 usage. I think it was the injury, 3pt %, and early season struggles. You think it was driven by a 3% increase in usage. Agree to disagree.

Other players that got 25M/yr on similar efficiency/usage as 1 way offensive players? Randle and Naz are two players that the wolves signed, just this summer, to bigger contracts than JK is gonna get. No one is calling them defensive stalwarts or creative savants.

thanks for posting the numbers that prove my point bro.

So you do think his efficiency dropped because his usage went from 24 to 27? Seriously? I was being sarcastic but, more power to you. Why do you think his efficiency stayed high in his 3rd season when his usage climbed almost 5% but dropped in his 4th season as it climbed an additional 3%. Is there a particular ceiling (say 25%) that gets geometrically harder to maintain TS efficiency once it's breached? Not trying to be a dick, genuinely curious why you ignore one year while focusing on another.

How do you reconcile his usage/efficiency numbers with players like Naz, who's TS and usage have BOTH been declining for 3 years straight. Whom you would have jumped at the chance to pay 4/100, right?

[vvoland]

Take a look at JK's numbers from the last 1/3rd of his 3rd season. They started veering away from his earlier career numbers, and they do give an indication of a pattern (more usage, lower eFG) that continued into last season prior to his injury (the numbers prior to the injury aren't much better than for the whole season).

Kuminga on a high-usage game plan, which is his desire, is not going to lead to a winning record.

that's a completely different argument. I'm not saying he's going to lead winning teams or whatever. I'm just saying 60% TS, a high FT rate, and the ability to score is often enough to warrant a contract of 25/yr. Evan implied that JK's efficiency is only due to him being a low usage player. He is not, nor has he been that. In fact, his usage and TS compare favorably to someone like Naz, whom half the board was salivating over. Except Naz has a 3 year history of becoming less efficient on lower usage. JK does not.

[vvoland]

Take a look at JK's numbers from the last 1/3rd of his 3rd season. They started veering away from his earlier career numbers, and they do give an indication of a pattern (more usage, a lot lower eFG) that continued into last season prior to his injury (the numbers prior to the injury aren't much better than for the whole season).

Kuminga on a high-usage game plan, which is his desire, is not going to lead to a winning record.

The only issue completely ignored by many is Kuminga's tendency to hurt his knee. Generally when playing a lot, he's had at least three episodes with a week or more of missed time due to "knee" issues. Can't confirm whether some of the single game sits were due to a sore knee.

Kuminga has terrible mechanics when landing on his dunks, rebound attempts, and even his jumpshots. I bet with regular usage as a starter, he'll miss a lot of games.

He played 70/74/67 games in his first 3 seasons. The one season he did miss real time was due to a severe ankle sprain. I don't think the knee has been a problem and I wouldn't be surprised if the 'knee issues' were excuses for Kerr to bench him.

Last thing, I did look at JK's splits two years ago, based on your prompting. You know what I see? I see his TS% dropping almost in tandem with his 3pt%. As his 3pt shot disappears, his TS declines. I see a much greater correlation between those two numbers than I do with Usage %.

I don't know if he'll ever be a consistent shooter from 3. IF he does get to a fairly regular mid 30s %, his value would skyrocket and, as I've pointed it out, he has done it before, albeit on low volume.

[statsman]

He played 70/74/67 games in his first 3 seasons. The one season he did miss real time was due to a severe ankle sprain. I don't think the knee has been a problem and I wouldn't be surprised if the 'knee issues' were excuses for Kerr to bench him.

Here are some of the highlights regarding his knees:

1) Golden State Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga dealing with strained patella tendon (Oct 7, 2021): https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32356433/golden-state-warriors-jonathan-kuminga-dealing-strained-patella-tendon

Occurred in the preseason, but he would miss the first 5 games of his career, out for a total of 23 days.

2) Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga dealing with 'short-term' knee injury (Jan 12, 2022): https://sports.yahoo.com/warriors-jonathan-kuminga-dealing-short-154803097.html

He was out a week and missed 2 games.

3) Jonathan Kuminga is out again tonight, per Warriors. Sixth straight missed game with knee tendinitis. (Apr 4, 2024):

Read on Twitter

Out 12 days and missed 6 games.

I believe there have been a few games here and there Kuminga has missed due to "knee tendinitis". He needs to learn how to land better on the court. He is just too awkward, and that athleticism will hold up only so long under the abuse.

[vvoland]

He played 70/74/67 games in his first 3 seasons. The one season he did miss real time was due to a severe ankle sprain. I don't think the knee has been a problem and I wouldn't be surprised if the 'knee issues' were excuses for Kerr to bench him.

Here are some of the highlights regarding his knees:

1) Golden State Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga dealing with strained patella tendon (Oct 7, 2021): https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32356433/golden-state-warriors-jonathan-kuminga-dealing-strained-patella-tendon

Occurred in the preseason, but he would miss the first 5 games of his career, out for a total of 23 days.

2) Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga dealing with 'short-term' knee injury (Jan 12, 2022): https://sports.yahoo.com/warriors-jonathan-kuminga-dealing-short-154803097.html

He was out a week and missed 2 games.

3) Jonathan Kuminga is out again tonight, per Warriors. Sixth straight missed game with knee tendinitis. (Apr 4, 2024):

Read on Twitter

Out 12 days and missed 6 games.

So 12 games in 4 seasons due to
1. strained patella (prior to rookie year, age 18)
2. short term knee injury (rookie season, might just be precautions after the early season patella strain)
3. knee tendinitis (that was weird, even at the time, as the team was trying to avoid the play-in and he needed minutes)

that's 3 games per season. Most players miss more time with blue balls.

[Onus]

Take a look at JK's numbers from the last 1/3rd of his 3rd season. They started veering away from his earlier career numbers, and they do give an indication of a pattern (more usage, a lot lower eFG) that continued into last season prior to his injury (the numbers prior to the injury aren't much better than for the whole season).

Kuminga on a high-usage game plan, which is his desire, is not going to lead to a winning record.

The only issue completely ignored by many is Kuminga's tendency to hurt his knee. Generally when playing a lot, he's had at least three episodes with a week or more of missed time due to "knee" issues. Can't confirm whether some of the single game sits were due to a sore knee.

Kuminga has terrible mechanics when landing on his dunks, rebound attempts, and even his jumpshots. I bet with regular usage as a starter, he'll miss a lot of games.

He played 70/74/67 games in his first 3 seasons. The one season he did miss real time was due to a severe ankle sprain. I don't think the knee has been a problem and I wouldn't be surprised if the 'knee issues' were excuses for Kerr to bench him.

Last thing, I did look at JK's splits two years ago, based on your prompting. You know what I see? I see his TS% dropping almost in tandem with his 3pt%. As his 3pt shot disappears, his TS declines. I see a much greater correlation between those two numbers than I do with Usage %.

I don't know if he'll ever be a consistent shooter from 3. IF he does get to a fairly regular mid 30s %, his value would skyrocket and, as I've pointed it out, he has done it before, albeit on low volume.

JK's splits and fg% drop when he dribbles or holds the ball. That's been consistent throughout his career so far. He's a play finisher not a creator/scorer. The more he has to create offense for himself the lower his efficiency will be. That's not very valuable. That's essentially John Collins who is seen as massively overpaid at 26M.

The low volume on 3s is part of the issue. Whether or not he makes 7 more 3s this year to be a 35+% 3 point shooter isn't going to make a difference. Using his percentage on such a low volume of shots is basically useless. It's how you get some posters to think JTA was a good shooter when he made 40% 1 year.

[vvoland]

Take a look at JK's numbers from the last 1/3rd of his 3rd season. They started veering away from his earlier career numbers, and they do give an indication of a pattern (more usage, a lot lower eFG) that continued into last season prior to his injury (the numbers prior to the injury aren't much better than for the whole season).

Kuminga on a high-usage game plan, which is his desire, is not going to lead to a winning record.

The only issue completely ignored by many is Kuminga's tendency to hurt his knee. Generally when playing a lot, he's had at least three episodes with a week or more of missed time due to "knee" issues. Can't confirm whether some of the single game sits were due to a sore knee.

Kuminga has terrible mechanics when landing on his dunks, rebound attempts, and even his jumpshots. I bet with regular usage as a starter, he'll miss a lot of games.

He played 70/74/67 games in his first 3 seasons. The one season he did miss real time was due to a severe ankle sprain. I don't think the knee has been a problem and I wouldn't be surprised if the 'knee issues' were excuses for Kerr to bench him.

Last thing, I did look at JK's splits two years ago, based on your prompting. You know what I see? I see his TS% dropping almost in tandem with his 3pt%. As his 3pt shot disappears, his TS declines. I see a much greater correlation between those two numbers than I do with Usage %.

I don't know if he'll ever be a consistent shooter from 3. IF he does get to a fairly regular mid 30s %, his value would skyrocket and, as I've pointed it out, he has done it before, albeit on low volume.

JK's splits and fg% drop when he dribbles or holds the ball. That's been consistent throughout his career so far. He's a play finisher not a creator/scorer. The more he has to create offense for himself the lower his efficiency will be. That's not very valuable. That's essentially John Collins who is seen as massively overpaid at 26M.

The low volume on 3s is part of the issue. Whether or not he makes 7 more 3s this year to be a 35+% 3 point shooter isn't going to make a difference. Using his percentage on such a low volume of shots is basically useless. It's how you get some posters to think JTA was a good shooter when he made 40% 1 year.

Or Naz Reid. Also, most players shoot better the less they dribble; that's not unique to JK.

[Onus]

He played 70/74/67 games in his first 3 seasons. The one season he did miss real time was due to a severe ankle sprain. I don't think the knee has been a problem and I wouldn't be surprised if the 'knee issues' were excuses for Kerr to bench him.

Last thing, I did look at JK's splits two years ago, based on your prompting. You know what I see? I see his TS% dropping almost in tandem with his 3pt%. As his 3pt shot disappears, his TS declines. I see a much greater correlation between those two numbers than I do with Usage %.

I don't know if he'll ever be a consistent shooter from 3. IF he does get to a fairly regular mid 30s %, his value would skyrocket and, as I've pointed it out, he has done it before, albeit on low volume.

JK's splits and fg% drop when he dribbles or holds the ball. That's been consistent throughout his career so far. He's a play finisher not a creator/scorer. The more he has to create offense for himself the lower his efficiency will be. That's not very valuable. That's essentially John Collins who is seen as massively overpaid at 26M.

The low volume on 3s is part of the issue. Whether or not he makes 7 more 3s this year to be a 35+% 3 point shooter isn't going to make a difference. Using his percentage on such a low volume of shots is basically useless. It's how you get some posters to think JTA was a good shooter when he made 40% 1 year.

Or Naz Reid. Also, most players shoot better the less they dribble; that's not unique to JK.

Naz Reid is a shooter which JK is not. Completely different types of play finishing.

[vvoland]

JK's splits and fg% drop when he dribbles or holds the ball. That's been consistent throughout his career so far. He's a play finisher not a creator/scorer. The more he has to create offense for himself the lower his efficiency will be. That's not very valuable. That's essentially John Collins who is seen as massively overpaid at 26M.

The low volume on 3s is part of the issue. Whether or not he makes 7 more 3s this year to be a 35+% 3 point shooter isn't going to make a difference. Using his percentage on such a low volume of shots is basically useless. It's how you get some posters to think JTA was a good shooter when he made 40% 1 year.

Or Naz Reid. Also, most players shoot better the less they dribble; that's not unique to JK.

Naz Reid is a shooter which JK is not. Completely different types of play finishing.

He is. That said, I think they're very similar offensive players - elite scorers in bench roles with little creation upside. That said, I think JK is far better as an on-ball defender and both are pretty bad off-ball. In tandem, they are pretty similar players with the biggest difference being age and Naz's 3 year history of declining TS AND declining USG. One got a 'value' contract at 4/100 and the other is 'crazy' for wanting 25/yr on a SHORTER deal.