Brewers 2025 Discussion - Frelick Activated, Black Sent Down

[coolhandluke121]

What an odd conversation. This is not happening guys (thankfully).

It was kind of a throwaway comment because it would be too quick for the Giants to pay to get rid of him (the whole conversation started with "it would be funny if they gave up on him this soon"), but the assertion that it wouldn't make sense for the Brewers (if the Giants pitched in enough) is mind-blowing to me. He'd be a great addition to play SS for a few years and then move to 3B, where the Brewers have no real prospects, to make room for someone like Made. Ortiz could back up both positions, as he's looking more and more like an Hernan Perez clone at best, and Durbin could be a backup 2B/3B.

I mean, why treat Durbin as a backup? Why can’t you expect him to to stay a starter? I mean, if we’re fine starting Turamg offensively, why treat Durbin that differently? Offensively, I see, like,the exact same player. Defensively he’s been good. I mean, he’s basically a shorter Brice Tyrang right now at least, isn’t he? You can nitpick and say Turing is worse on defense, but it’s closer than you’d think IMO

Turang offers elite middle-infield defense, which is really important again now that the shift is banned, whereas Durbin is a mediocre 3B. Turang also has much more base-running value, although it's a little baffling how much lower his success rate on SB attempts is this year. There's no comparison between the two.

I totally get liking the young guy, but comparing Durbin to Turang can't be the reason you don't look for an upgrade on the left side of the infield.

[ReasonablySober]

It was kind of a throwaway comment because it would be too quick for the Giants to pay to get rid of him (the whole conversation started with "it would be funny if they gave up on him this soon"), but the assertion that it wouldn't make sense for the Brewers (if the Giants pitched in enough) is mind-blowing to me. He'd be a great addition to play SS for a few years and then move to 3B, where the Brewers have no real prospects, to make room for someone like Made. Ortiz could back up both positions, as he's looking more and more like an Hernan Perez clone at best, and Durbin could be a backup 2B/3B.

I mean, why treat Durbin as a backup? Why can’t you expect him to to stay a starter? I mean, if we’re fine starting Turamg offensively, why treat Durbin that differently? Offensively, I see, like,the exact same player. Defensively he’s been good. I mean, he’s basically a shorter Brice Tyrang right now at least, isn’t he? You can nitpick and say Turing is worse on defense, but it’s closer than you’d think IMO

Turang offers elite middle-infield defense, which is really important again now that the shift is banned, whereas Durbin is a mediocre 3B. Turang also has much more base-running value, although it's a little baffling how much lower his success rate on SB attempts is this year. There's no comparison between the two.

I totally get liking the young guy, but comparing Durbin to Turang can't be the reason you don't look for an upgrade on the left side of the infield.

And he's just a rookie.

As of now Durbin looks like a perfectly good option at the hot corner until one of the kids in the lower levels pushes him out.

[coolhandluke121]

And he's just a rookie.

As of now Durbin looks like a perfectly good option at the hot corner until one of the kids in the lower levels pushes him out.

Eh, now do Ortiz in his two best months last year, or Hiura in his first partial season. I'm not sold on Durbin as a long-term starter, and timely RBI hitting is not something you can replicate from year-to-year. I'm fine rolling with him this year, but I'm not saying no to a major SS upgrade if the price is right, even if it means getting a guy who would have to move to 3B in a few years. That's a lifetime in MLB, and who knows what Durbin will be at that time.

ETA: Also, check the context of my post again. I was comparing Turang's defense at 2B to Durbin's at 3B, not saying Durbin hasn't been a good bat at 3B.

[Bucks4005]

It was kind of a throwaway comment because it would be too quick for the Giants to pay to get rid of him (the whole conversation started with "it would be funny if they gave up on him this soon"), but the assertion that it wouldn't make sense for the Brewers (if the Giants pitched in enough) is mind-blowing to me. He'd be a great addition to play SS for a few years and then move to 3B, where the Brewers have no real prospects, to make room for someone like Made. Ortiz could back up both positions, as he's looking more and more like an Hernan Perez clone at best, and Durbin could be a backup 2B/3B.

I mean, why treat Durbin as a backup? Why can’t you expect him to to stay a starter? I mean, if we’re fine starting Turamg offensively, why treat Durbin that differently? Offensively, I see, like,the exact same player. Defensively he’s been good. I mean, he’s basically a shorter Brice Tyrang right now at least, isn’t he? You can nitpick and say Turing is worse on defense, but it’s closer than you’d think IMO

Turang offers elite middle-infield defense, which is really important again now that the shift is banned, whereas Durbin is a mediocre 3B. Turang also has much more base-running value, although it's a little baffling how much lower his success rate on SB attempts is this year. There's no comparison between the two.

I totally get liking the young guy, but comparing Durbin to Turang can't be the reason you don't look for an upgrade on the left side of the infield.

But why is Durbin mediocre in your eyes? I mean specifically.

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

He’s 5th among 3rd baseman in defensive runs saved with 6. So even if you expect a bit of regression, his defense is above average. Then compare it too Turing, who is 5th among defensive runs saved among 2nd baseman. With 6. Of anything, it favors Durbin because Durbins okayed in less games.

OBP. .350 for Durbin vs .348 for Turing. So basically identical.

Slugging percentage and OPS. .382 vs .369 in favor of Durbin. .732 vs .718 in favor of Durbin. Again, with the variance in baseball, these are basically identical. Average favors Turang year at .278 vs .264. But again, close enough that it’s hard to favor one over the other.

HR and RBI, 6 in favor of Turang to Durbins 5, 39 to 35 in favor of Turang. But Turang has a 100 more ABs.

WAR favors Turang, 2.9 vs 2.2 for Durbin.

Turang also more aggressive on the basepaths, but his stats are 18 SB vs 8 caught stealing, vs Durbin 9 SB and 4 CS. So same success rate.


But, I’m just not seeing this massive outlier differences between them that you seem to be seeing? If anything, Durbin with the same ABs and play time could be better? But these guys seem to basically be the same player this year?

To be fair, Turang did have 28 runs saved last year, 40 in 2023. So his defensive upside is a lot higher, but to be fair to Durbin, Durbin hasn’t been an every day 3B ever in his career. Until, this year, he’s played more 2B his entire minor league career every year. So as he gets more comfortable,,maybe he gets better? That comes down to if you have faith in the development for him going forward. But yea, i just dont see how you can call one definitively mediocre?

[coolhandluke121]

But why is Durbin mediocre in your eyes? I mean specifically.

I appreciate all the stats, but I have to confess that it's just an eye test thing that makes me doubt that it's sustainable. Turang has played at a ~4-5 WAR rate for almost two years now, and if anything I think he's a better player than he's shown this year. The defense and base-running should normalize to 2024 levels again. I'll give Durbin the same credit if and when he sustains this as long as Turang has, but for now I'm going to be more cautious with my praise.

[Bucks4005]

If anything, what do we think about 1B? Vaughn has been amazing, but it’s just been a week. Hoskins was pretty bad in June and trending downward for the month. While I’d love for Vaughn to live up to his #3 overall Pick status, if you just look at his career as a whole until now, 1B could be a hole, and there seem to be more options there on trade market vs SS for example.

[Bucks4005]

But why is Durbin mediocre in your eyes? I mean specifically.

I appreciate all the stats, but I have to confess that it's just an eye test thing that makes me doubt that it's sustainable. Turang has played at a ~4-5 WAR rate for almost two years now, and if anything I think he's a better player than he's shown this year. The defense and base-running should normalize to 2024 levels again. I'll give Durbin the same credit if and when he sustains this as long as Turang has, but for now I'm going to be more cautious with my praise.

I agree with that. Turang defensively and on the basepaths could be better, but at the same time, he’s having a career year at the plate. So I feel it offsets a little bit, in favor of him potentially being better with the other aspects and not as good batting going forward.I just think mediocre is a weird word to describe Durbin, which literally definition is not very good, when he’s been anything but that.

[coolhandluke121]

I just think mediocre is a weird word to describe Durbin, which literally definition is not very good, when he’s been anything but that.

It's only been two months though. I don't think there's much in Durbin's trajectory that predicts a consistently above average 3B, but of course this is baseball and he could be a superstar.

In any case, I'm not even advocating for a 3B this trade deadline. I'd prefer to give Durbin a chance to keep it up. I'm just saying that I would take Adames if the price was right, even if that means he would have to move to 3B in a few years. I wouldn't really factor Durbin's future into something that far off; he's not that level of prospect yet, unless he keeps this up into next year or something. Who knows what could happen between now and 2027? It's a moot point though, because SFG won't be ready to give up on Adames this early.

[coolhandluke121]

If anything, what do we think about 1B? Vaughn has been amazing, but it’s just been a week. Hoskins was pretty bad in June and trending downward for the month. While I’d love for Vaughn to live up to his #3 overall Pick status, if you just look at his career as a whole until now, 1B could be a hole, and there seem to be more options there on trade market vs SS for example.

Who are you suggesting? I could be on board, but I kinda like all of Hoskins, Bauers, and Vaughn in their own way. I wonder how long Bauers has had this shoulder issue. It seemed that his playing time dropped off when he was still playing fairly well overall, which leads me to suspect that this was bothering him for a while.

I don't think they can get anything for Hoskins in a trade, so it would be unlikely that a 1B would come along who would justify paying him so much to ride the pine when he comes back from injury.

[Bucks4005]

If anything, what do we think about 1B? Vaughn has been amazing, but it’s just been a week. Hoskins was pretty bad in June and trending downward for the month. While I’d love for Vaughn to live up to his #3 overall Pick status, if you just look at his career as a whole until now, 1B could be a hole, and there seem to be more options there on trade market vs SS for example.

Who are you suggesting? I could be on board, but I kinda like all of Hoskins, Bauers, and Vaughn in their own way. I wonder how long Bauers has had this shoulder issue. It seemed that his playing time dropped off when he was still playing fairly well overall, which leads me to suspect that this was bothering him for a while.

I don't think they can get anything for Hoskins in a trade, so it would be unlikely that a 1B would come along who would justify paying him so much to ride the pine when he comes back from injury.

O’Hearn could be an option, makes 3.5 million. For a rental, wouldn’t affect the cap too much. And you could platoon them, O’Hearn crushes right hands, awful against lefties, so play Hoskins against lefties. That also assumes Hoskins comes back the same, if he is somewhat hurt and playing through injury, we might have a black hole at 1B come postseason time. If Vaughn can’t keep it up, it’s a bit worrisome relying on Hoskins to to cone back the same playoff time. Though I am a bit biased since Hoskins wasn’t this star last year either.

But yea, days where right handed pitchers pitch, you have a power bat off the bench to face lefty bullpens in the playoffs.

[coolhandluke121]

O’Hearn could be an option, makes 3.5 million.

Price would probably be a little too steep for me, but yeah... I should probably give up on Bauers. Just seemed like he was starting to figure something out this season. I think all he would have to do is learn to lay off pitches where he has a hole in his swing (high-ish and inside) in order to consistently produce a ~.800 OPS against RHP, but he probably is what he is at this point.

[ReasonablySober]

The Athletic remains skeptical, placing them behind both the Cubs and the Dodgers as of today.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (4.0)
Record: 60-40
Last Power Ranking: 10

Second-half storyline: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

There’s a philosophical belief that all pain and suffering comes from the inability to let go or release. Whether that be hopes and dreams, people, possessions, desires — the need to cling to whatever you believe will bring you fulfillment is where the problem begins, and true enlightenment comes from understanding the temporal nature of all things, and your relationship to all things (which is also temporal).

If you can explain what the Brewers are doing in any simpler terms, I invite you to fill in for me next time I’m responsible for their blurb in these Power Rankings.

In last Friday’s Windup, I added up the bWAR of 12 former Brewers around the league, and it added up to 14.5 bWAR, or — at the time — the combination of Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1).

So maybe they’ve figured out something the rest of us haven’t. Or maybe they’ll crash and burn in the second half. For now, after Monday’s win over the Mariners, they have the best record in baseball, and it’s blowing my mind. — Weaver

But what I want to make note of is the bolded. What do you think is the point he was trying to make? I had to go back and look at the blog he referenced. This is what it said:

Check out this list of former Brewers, just from 2020-2024: Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Brent Suter, Devin Williams, Drew Rasmussen, Eric Lauer, Luis Urías, Willy Adames, Hoby Milner, Colin Rea, Janson Junk …

Just those 12 (or 11, really — Williams has been worth 0.0 bWAR) have been worth 14.5 bWAR this year. That’s the same total compiled by Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1) combined.

I, uh, still don't get it...? A bunch of former players around the league had a WAR that adds up to three guys who don't play on the same team?

Maybe they should hire a beat writer to cover the team. They'll make more sense and can help that dude understand how the Brewers are winning.

[MikeIsGood]

It makes no sense at all. I ignored it last week and am again this week.

The Athletic has some good stuff now and then, but they lost their value prop IMO when they consolidated their beat reporters to the major markets - just like basically all major sports media does/would. I've read them less and less and time goes on. Now it's just a throw-in to my subscription package.

[coolhandluke121]

I think he's just saying that being willing to trade away talent or let them walk is part of their success. They're not successful in spite of all the lost talent, but in part because of it - in the sense that when one door closes, another one opens.

I still think it's sad that so many people continue to think all the criticism of the Hader trade was fair. Making those business decisions is a big part of their success. I wish that they could continue to make trades like that, but now they're traumatized by the short-sighted reactions. And it says more about the character of the team than it says about the front office that they tanked after the trade.

ETA: He's also pointing out how the Brewers have a way of sifting through the bargain bins to find a plethora of productive players to make up for the lack of stars. Has any team churned through more different 1-3 WAR players in the last 9 years?

[MickeyDavis]

Read on Twitter

[Eeavers57]

The Athletic remains skeptical, placing them behind both the Cubs and the Dodgers as of today.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (4.0)
Record: 60-40
Last Power Ranking: 10

Second-half storyline: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

There’s a philosophical belief that all pain and suffering comes from the inability to let go or release. Whether that be hopes and dreams, people, possessions, desires — the need to cling to whatever you believe will bring you fulfillment is where the problem begins, and true enlightenment comes from understanding the temporal nature of all things, and your relationship to all things (which is also temporal).

If you can explain what the Brewers are doing in any simpler terms, I invite you to fill in for me next time I’m responsible for their blurb in these Power Rankings.

In last Friday’s Windup, I added up the bWAR of 12 former Brewers around the league, and it added up to 14.5 bWAR, or — at the time — the combination of Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1).

So maybe they’ve figured out something the rest of us haven’t. Or maybe they’ll crash and burn in the second half. For now, after Monday’s win over the Mariners, they have the best record in baseball, and it’s blowing my mind. — Weaver

But what I want to make note of is the bolded. What do you think is the point he was trying to make? I had to go back and look at the blog he referenced. This is what it said:

Check out this list of former Brewers, just from 2020-2024: Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Brent Suter, Devin Williams, Drew Rasmussen, Eric Lauer, Luis Urías, Willy Adames, Hoby Milner, Colin Rea, Janson Junk …

Just those 12 (or 11, really — Williams has been worth 0.0 bWAR) have been worth 14.5 bWAR this year. That’s the same total compiled by Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1) combined.

I, uh, still don't get it...? A bunch of former players around the league had a WAR that adds up to three guys who don't play on the same team?

Maybe they should hire a beat writer to cover the team. They'll make more sense and can help that dude understand how the Brewers are winning.

In my opinion, he is giving us a ton of credit in that we can trade for/sign these no-name type guys that we trot out that have been flying well under the radar and in turn, when combined, equal 3 of the best players in the league. So we don't have to sign guys to 700+ mil contracts, we can just pluck em off the street, mix em up, and spit out the same WAR as 1.5 billion dollars.

[ReasonablySober]

The Athletic remains skeptical, placing them behind both the Cubs and the Dodgers as of today.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (4.0)
Record: 60-40
Last Power Ranking: 10

Second-half storyline: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

There’s a philosophical belief that all pain and suffering comes from the inability to let go or release. Whether that be hopes and dreams, people, possessions, desires — the need to cling to whatever you believe will bring you fulfillment is where the problem begins, and true enlightenment comes from understanding the temporal nature of all things, and your relationship to all things (which is also temporal).

If you can explain what the Brewers are doing in any simpler terms, I invite you to fill in for me next time I’m responsible for their blurb in these Power Rankings.

In last Friday’s Windup, I added up the bWAR of 12 former Brewers around the league, and it added up to 14.5 bWAR, or — at the time — the combination of Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1).

So maybe they’ve figured out something the rest of us haven’t. Or maybe they’ll crash and burn in the second half. For now, after Monday’s win over the Mariners, they have the best record in baseball, and it’s blowing my mind. — Weaver

But what I want to make note of is the bolded. What do you think is the point he was trying to make? I had to go back and look at the blog he referenced. This is what it said:

Check out this list of former Brewers, just from 2020-2024: Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Brent Suter, Devin Williams, Drew Rasmussen, Eric Lauer, Luis Urías, Willy Adames, Hoby Milner, Colin Rea, Janson Junk …

Just those 12 (or 11, really — Williams has been worth 0.0 bWAR) have been worth 14.5 bWAR this year. That’s the same total compiled by Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1) combined.

I, uh, still don't get it...? A bunch of former players around the league had a WAR that adds up to three guys who don't play on the same team?

Maybe they should hire a beat writer to cover the team. They'll make more sense and can help that dude understand how the Brewers are winning.

In my opinion, he is giving us a ton of credit in that we can trade for/sign these no-name type guys that we trot out that have been flying well under the radar and in turn, when combined, equal 3 of the best players in the league. So we don't have to sign guys to 700+ mil contracts, we can just pluck em off the street, mix em up, and spit out the same WAR as 1.5 billion dollars.

...but none of those players play for the Brewers this season. Adames was a 5 five player last season. Burnes had a 7.5 win season as a Brewer. What point is he making by saying those guys aren't having good years right now (in the Burnes case because he had Tommy John)?

[coolhandluke121]

In my opinion, he is giving us a ton of credit in that we can trade for/sign these no-name type guys that we trot out that have been flying well under the radar and in turn, when combined, equal 3 of the best players in the league. So we don't have to sign guys to 700+ mil contracts, we can just pluck em off the street, mix em up, and spit out the same WAR as 1.5 billion dollars.

...but none of those players play for the Brewers this season. Adames was a 5 five player last season. Burnes had a 7.5 win season as a Brewer. What point is he making by saying those guys aren't having good years right now (in the Burnes case because he had Tommy John)?

Just that it's better to go find and develop the next guy than overpay to keep the ones you have. It's often not even that much of a loss in the end. Keep moving forward.

[BUCKnation]

I think it's that we got rid of them at the right time, but I could see how it means that we've lost a lot of talent and at some point the wins will drop as a result based on the follow up sentences.

[ReasonablySober]

Passan lists the Brewers as a team likely to do only minor moves, if anything:

Biggest need: OF, SS
Best fit: Maikel Garcia, IF

The latest: To be clear: Kansas City has shown no inclination to move Garcia, who can play all around the diamond but is a very good shortstop, and the Brewers aren't actively seeking a replacement for Joey Ortiz at short. This is more a reflection of how deep the Brewers are -- and why they own the best record in baseball: There are no clear holes on this roster. The Brewers are inveterate practitioners of common-sense systems that produce good players. They do everything very well: draft, sign international players, develop, trade and sign free agents on a limited budget.

Unlike past years, they are not going to try to thread the add-subtract needle. Their starting pitching depth is envious and their bullpen much, much better than it gets credit for. Perhaps they could snag a corner outfielder or a super-utility man (if Texas were to move Josh Smith, he'd fit perfectly). As much as Josh Naylor or Ryan O'Hearn would fit the bill at first base and balance their lineup, the Brewers tend not to make lavish moves at the deadline, which is why adding Eugenio Suárez to play third -- over Caleb Durbin, who's hitting .318/.398/.465 since May 21 -- is not in the cards.

Like the Tigers, Milwaukee is understandably at ease with what it has and sees its excellent farm system as the fuel to power this unlikely rocket ship. The Brewers are content to keep doing what they almost always do: win.