Kuminga sign and trade Bulls interest

[League Circles]

I keep seeing he may have peaked. At what age do you guys think most NBA players hit their physical peaks? Skips skills for now, purely their physical peaks?

IMO I would say an average player reaches his physical peak at roughly age 26. Skill peak and BBIQ when he retires.

[League Circles]

You actually brought up a point I've been thinking of. I think most of us in here are evaluating Kuminga on stats rather actually having seen him a ton. Giddey looks like a different player on the Bulls, and even better after Zach left. Warriors are a ball movement offense with good to great distributors. Wouldn't think Kuminga would be used much as playmaker there. Same with defense. He played next to Draymond a lot I assume, not a traditional big center. They run a different defensive system. Don't think you need to be a great playmaker at PF anyway.

Stats tell a lot, but when players go to completely different teams, with different systems and responsibilities, You get a different player a lot. Sometimes worse, sometimes better but his fit and usage would be different here.

Just my two cents. Kerr said his problem was system and player fit basically. Not skill.

Certainly the upside scenario is that is true.

The downside scenario is that he's a low efficiency volume scorer that can't shoot, is below average defensively, has a horrible basketball IQ, and won't get better at any of those things merely by switching teams and systems. If he doesn't get better at several of these things (a lot better), then he's absolutely worthless as a basketball player. He might as well be THT at that point, THT was a vet min player.

I mean, objectively speaking, clearly he's shown enough to get a certain amount of money, right? Like he would certainly get $10 mill AAV? Definitely get at least mid-level exception?

I view most of these risk/reward. Understand all the objections to moving Ayo, except I don't think most people would really care if we moved Ayo. At his best he's probably a good backup PG and we just signed one. Objectively, ignoring anything about the player, a player who's a restricted free agent will generally get low balled by their team. Objectively speaking, no teams have the space to make him an offer of even $25 mill or above. So objectively speaking, said player will likely have to sign at a discount. I want us to add underpriced, appreciating trade chips.

Risk/reward, I believe there's a better chance that he improves in one year than regresses in one year. Given our roster, swapping him for Ayo really doesn't block anybody. We actually end up with a pretty deep bench and a lot of young starters with something to prove.

Starting lineup probably: Giddey, White, Matas, Kuminga, Vucevic. Bench: Jones, Huerter, Okoro, Williams, Collins. Reserves: Noa, Terry, Smith, Phillips, Carter.

Any lineup with Vucevic or Collins would look pretty bad, so I'll ignore those positions short term. Not a long term contender of course, but I think Kuminga would have more freedom to play to his strengths and more opportunities. His raw counting stats should increase, which would boost his value.

I can't wrap my head around the idea that that starting lineup (I'll ignore C for now which makes sense) has enough perimeter defense or 3 point shooting/spacing to be very good. Who is the primary POA defender? Coby? Kuminga? NO THANKS!

The primary things we need are more shooting and better defense. Kuminga doesn't provide either of those any better than guys like Okoro, Ayo, and Patrick IMO.

[jnrjr79]

Certainly the upside scenario is that is true.

The downside scenario is that he's a low efficiency volume scorer that can't shoot, is below average defensively, has a horrible basketball IQ, and won't get better at any of those things merely by switching teams and systems. If he doesn't get better at several of these things (a lot better), then he's absolutely worthless as a basketball player. He might as well be THT at that point, THT was a vet min player.

I mean, objectively speaking, clearly he's shown enough to get a certain amount of money, right? Like he would certainly get $10 mill AAV? Definitely get at least mid-level exception?

I view most of these risk/reward. Understand all the objections to moving Ayo, except I don't think most people would really care if we moved Ayo. At his best he's probably a good backup PG and we just signed one. Objectively, ignoring anything about the player, a player who's a restricted free agent will generally get low balled by their team. Objectively speaking, no teams have the space to make him an offer of even $25 mill or above. So objectively speaking, said player will likely have to sign at a discount. I want us to add underpriced, appreciating trade chips.

Risk/reward, I believe there's a better chance that he improves in one year than regresses in one year. Given our roster, swapping him for Ayo really doesn't block anybody. We actually end up with a pretty deep bench and a lot of young starters with something to prove.

Starting lineup probably: Giddey, White, Matas, Kuminga, Vucevic. Bench: Jones, Huerter, Okoro, Williams, Collins. Reserves: Noa, Terry, Smith, Phillips, Carter.

Any lineup with Vucevic or Collins would look pretty bad, so I'll ignore those positions short term. Not a long term contender of course, but I think Kuminga would have more freedom to play to his strengths and more opportunities. His raw counting stats should increase, which would boost his value.

I can't wrap my head around the idea that that starting lineup (I'll ignore C for now which makes sense) has enough perimeter defense or 3 point shooting/spacing to be very good. Who is the primary POA defender? Coby? Kuminga? NO THANKS!

The primary things we need are more shooting and better defense. Kuminga doesn't provide either of those any better than guys like Okoro, Ayo, and Patrick IMO.

I'm actually chuckling now thinking about how a Giddey - Coby - Matas - Kuminga - Vooch lineup would look defensively. They might give up 150 points a game.

[sco]

I mean, objectively speaking, clearly he's shown enough to get a certain amount of money, right? Like he would certainly get $10 mill AAV? Definitely get at least mid-level exception?

I view most of these risk/reward. Understand all the objections to moving Ayo, except I don't think most people would really care if we moved Ayo. At his best he's probably a good backup PG and we just signed one. Objectively, ignoring anything about the player, a player who's a restricted free agent will generally get low balled by their team. Objectively speaking, no teams have the space to make him an offer of even $25 mill or above. So objectively speaking, said player will likely have to sign at a discount. I want us to add underpriced, appreciating trade chips.

Risk/reward, I believe there's a better chance that he improves in one year than regresses in one year. Given our roster, swapping him for Ayo really doesn't block anybody. We actually end up with a pretty deep bench and a lot of young starters with something to prove.

Starting lineup probably: Giddey, White, Matas, Kuminga, Vucevic. Bench: Jones, Huerter, Okoro, Williams, Collins. Reserves: Noa, Terry, Smith, Phillips, Carter.

Any lineup with Vucevic or Collins would look pretty bad, so I'll ignore those positions short term. Not a long term contender of course, but I think Kuminga would have more freedom to play to his strengths and more opportunities. His raw counting stats should increase, which would boost his value.

I can't wrap my head around the idea that that starting lineup (I'll ignore C for now which makes sense) has enough perimeter defense or 3 point shooting/spacing to be very good. Who is the primary POA defender? Coby? Kuminga? NO THANKS!

The primary things we need are more shooting and better defense. Kuminga doesn't provide either of those any better than guys like Okoro, Ayo, and Patrick IMO.

I'm actually chuckling now thinking about how a Giddey - Coby - Matas - Kuminga - Vooch lineup would look defensively. They might give up 150 points a game.

Pretty ugly to be sure; however, we all know it's not about that. It would be a test to see if Kuminga is a great player or not. If he's meerly good (e.g. Coby good), then the deal will have been a waste. He'd need to show he's a legit #1 option when paired with Giddey's passing to make it worth it. Otherwise, the opportunity cost is too high.

[dougthonus]

Pretty ugly to be sure; however, we all know it's not about that. It would be a test to see if Kuminga is a great player or not. If he's meerly good (e.g. Coby good), then the deal will have been a waste. He'd need to show he's a legit #1 option when paired with Giddey's passing to make it worth it. Otherwise, the opportunity cost is too high.

I mean there's literally no reason to think he's even Coby good.

[sco]

Pretty ugly to be sure; however, we all know it's not about that. It would be a test to see if Kuminga is a great player or not. If he's meerly good (e.g. Coby good), then the deal will have been a waste. He'd need to show he's a legit #1 option when paired with Giddey's passing to make it worth it. Otherwise, the opportunity cost is too high.

I mean there's literally no reason to think he's even Coby good.

I agree with you, but there are those with more adept skills of "willing suspension of disbelief".

[burlydee]

I mean, objectively speaking, clearly he's shown enough to get a certain amount of money, right? Like he would certainly get $10 mill AAV? Definitely get at least mid-level exception?

I view most of these risk/reward. Understand all the objections to moving Ayo, except I don't think most people would really care if we moved Ayo. At his best he's probably a good backup PG and we just signed one. Objectively, ignoring anything about the player, a player who's a restricted free agent will generally get low balled by their team. Objectively speaking, no teams have the space to make him an offer of even $25 mill or above. So objectively speaking, said player will likely have to sign at a discount. I want us to add underpriced, appreciating trade chips.

Risk/reward, I believe there's a better chance that he improves in one year than regresses in one year. Given our roster, swapping him for Ayo really doesn't block anybody. We actually end up with a pretty deep bench and a lot of young starters with something to prove.

Starting lineup probably: Giddey, White, Matas, Kuminga, Vucevic. Bench: Jones, Huerter, Okoro, Williams, Collins. Reserves: Noa, Terry, Smith, Phillips, Carter.

Any lineup with Vucevic or Collins would look pretty bad, so I'll ignore those positions short term. Not a long term contender of course, but I think Kuminga would have more freedom to play to his strengths and more opportunities. His raw counting stats should increase, which would boost his value.

I can't wrap my head around the idea that that starting lineup (I'll ignore C for now which makes sense) has enough perimeter defense or 3 point shooting/spacing to be very good. Who is the primary POA defender? Coby? Kuminga? NO THANKS!

The primary things we need are more shooting and better defense. Kuminga doesn't provide either of those any better than guys like Okoro, Ayo, and Patrick IMO.

I'm actually chuckling now thinking about how a Giddey - Coby - Matas - Kuminga - Vooch lineup would look defensively. They might give up 150 points a game.

Substituting one guy is supposed to make all the difference? Huerter win a DPOY I don’t know about?

When you guys don’t like an idea, you’ll just say anything.

[Dez]

Kuminga has the basketball IQ of a potato.

[GuardianEnzo]

I can't wrap my head around the idea that that starting lineup (I'll ignore C for now which makes sense) has enough perimeter defense or 3 point shooting/spacing to be very good. Who is the primary POA defender? Coby? Kuminga? NO THANKS!

The primary things we need are more shooting and better defense. Kuminga doesn't provide either of those any better than guys like Okoro, Ayo, and Patrick IMO.

I'm actually chuckling now thinking about how a Giddey - Coby - Matas - Kuminga - Vooch lineup would look defensively. They might give up 150 points a game.

Substituting one guy is supposed to make all the difference? Huerter win a DPOY I don’t know about?

When you guys don’t like an idea, you’ll just say anything.

Fun with numbers: Ayo and PWill DBPM: 0.0. Kuminga DBPM: -0.2.

The whole “Kuminga is a terrible defender” thing is just a convenient trope for people who’ve rarely watched him play and don’t want him. By all accounts he’s basically an average defender, and both the metrics and eye test back that up. He’s also young and athletic enough that at least theoretically he could step up and be a pretty good defender. No way to know if that happens but lots of guys are better defenders at 25 than they were at 21, and Kuminga has the size and tools.

[League Circles]

I'm actually chuckling now thinking about how a Giddey - Coby - Matas - Kuminga - Vooch lineup would look defensively. They might give up 150 points a game.

Substituting one guy is supposed to make all the difference? Huerter win a DPOY I don’t know about?

When you guys don’t like an idea, you’ll just say anything.

Fun with numbers: Ayo and PWill DBPM: 0.0. Kuminga DBPM: -0.2.

The whole “Kuminga is a terrible defender” thing is just a convenient trope for people who’ve rarely watched him play and don’t want him. By all accounts he’s basically an average defender, and both the metrics and eye test back that up. He’s also young and athletic enough that at least theoretically he could step up and be a pretty good defender. No way to know if that happens but lots of guys are better defenders at 25 than they were at 21, and Kuminga has the size and tools.

I haven't watched much Kuminga and haven't claimed he's a poor defender, but is anyone suggesting that he could be a primary on-ball perimeter defender? Like could he guard an opposing point guard and play them well? If the answer is no like I think it is, then I have no interest. It's more than just whether he's a good defender. It's that he's not the right TYPE of defender.

So if he's an average defender as a forward, that means he's certainly not better as a defender than Patrick, Matas, Phillips, or probably Noa very soon. So that leaves Giddey that he'd be a better defender than, but for the offense we obviously wouldn't want him to play over Giddey.

Okoro, and Ayo for that matter, and maybe even Jones, are a lot closer to what we need defensively than Kuminga is. He may be a fine player but he'd be a poor fit defensively, offensively, and salary wise for us.

[DuckIII]

I’m not going to try to pretend I know enough about Kuminga to say he’s a black hole or won’t play D, but I’ve watched him play basketball. Originally with the thought that I wondered why, with all the great things I was hearing about what a freak athlete he was and how much GS loved him, he didn’t play more. But then the more I watched - admittedly not some deep catalogue of games here - the more I wondered about all those reports I had originally heard about he great and talented he was. Because I wasn’t seeing a guy like that very often.

I kinda just don’t really see it. Not even being specific, just in general. What am I missing?

And with Matas already on the roster, doesn’t make sense unless they are just taking Pat.

[MrSparkle]

I think he has potential on higher usage as a 20 ppg scorer and high FTA guy. Does that translate to wins or efficiency? Maybe..Probably not. But he’s 22yo, so writing him off is nonsensical.

Grant, Wiggins, Ingram, Barnes… the ballpark IMO.

I think Okoro has “out the NBA” Ronnie Brewer, Javonte Green potential. One injury and the guy’s best and only asset is toast. Hope I’m wrong, but my 2C is that AK has gotten into the Reinsdorf tradition of over-investing in bottom-of-the-barrel penny stock players, and dismissing more competent 2nd tier NBA prospects cause of the price tag.

But really, paying $25M to a solid prospect is better than paying $8M journey man who could’ve been free in any off-season, or waiver wire.

Here you go folks, the $50M dream team:

Tre Jevon
Okoro
Terry
PWill
Jalen

Like, what? This should be a vet min journey man $15M special (total for all 6). 3rd string/DNP players. Anyway, I get the hopes were higher at times of signing, and hope remains, but also… imho the Bulls FO just had the naive urge to secure unproven players when their stats weren’t favorable. We’ll see with Okoro, but I have an incredibly hard time the contender Cavs couldn’t make use of a great young wing defender on the cheap, esp. with Darius in the lineup. He’s a zero offensive threat, and that just bites a team these days, when you play 4-on-5.

[greenwing]

I’m not going to try to pretend I know enough about Kuminga to say he’s a black hole or won’t play D, but I’ve watched him play basketball. Originally with the thought that I wondered why, with all the great things I was hearing about what a freak athlete he was and how much GS loved him, he didn’t play more. But then the more I watched - admittedly not some deep catalogue of games here - the more I wondered about all those reports I had originally heard about he great and talented he was. Because I wasn’t seeing a guy like that very often.

I kinda just don’t really see it. Not even being specific, just in general. What am I missing?

And with Matas already on the roster, doesn’t make sense unless they are just taking Pat.

I don’t see it with Kuminga either. Although I also don’t see it with Pat, so there’s that. Granted, Pat has shown flashes when he’s made the guy. He did that against Milwaukee for a game in the playoffs. In that sense, he’s a bit like Coby where Coby is a rhythm guy who needs ample playing time and the ball in his hands to get hot but is otherwise inconsistent when made to be a role player or a sparkplug off the bench. Problem for Pat is that he’s never consistently shown the motor on the court to be the guy so he won’t be.

I think if you’re able to bring in Kuminga for Pat’s contract or for Ayo if you think you can’t retain him then assuming his contract is in the $20-25 mil per year range it’s a low risk, potentially high reward move that is more likely to fail than succeed. But I wouldn’t fault the Bulls for swinging for the fences if they don’t have to give up much to acquire him.

[kulaz3000]

I’m not going to try to pretend I know enough about Kuminga to say he’s a black hole or won’t play D, but I’ve watched him play basketball. Originally with the thought that I wondered why, with all the great things I was hearing about what a freak athlete he was and how much GS loved him, he didn’t play more. But then the more I watched - admittedly not some deep catalogue of games here - the more I wondered about all those reports I had originally heard about he great and talented he was. Because I wasn’t seeing a guy like that very often.

I kinda just don’t really see it. Not even being specific, just in general. What am I missing?

And with Matas already on the roster, doesn’t make sense unless they are just taking Pat.

Isn't it the same as what was said about Giddey, with him not being played in the playoffs. I'm of the opinion that unless that flat out not talented, or too old, we need to be asset building and provided that the costs is reasonable, we see if it works out.

Remember, he is still extremely young, and yes, I absolutely agree that he is a black hole of sorts, and that didn't really change on a championship franchise like the Warriors, but given more responsibilities on a team without pressure, could change his mindset where that he doesn't feel he needs to do too much during limited minutes, and he allows the game to come to him more than he has to date. Again, that's the hope, but I think it's reasonable given his age, and role with the Warriors (players on limited minutes are prone to try to do too much).

That said, I'm not really fussed either way, and though I lean towards preferring not to acquire him, I wouldn't hate it if we did acquiring him, simply based on what I said above, he is young enough, talented enough (despite being raw), that if we sign him to a reasonable contract, that he is worth a gamble and if it doesn't work out, you just move on from him. And honestly, I think the same way with even Giddey, though I'm slightly positive about Giddey in that I'd prefer to keep him, but if we didn't for whatever reason, I don't think it sets the franchise back as much as people may think - we are already a bad team, we just become slightly worse.

[kulaz3000]

I’m not going to try to pretend I know enough about Kuminga to say he’s a black hole or won’t play D, but I’ve watched him play basketball. Originally with the thought that I wondered why, with all the great things I was hearing about what a freak athlete he was and how much GS loved him, he didn’t play more. But then the more I watched - admittedly not some deep catalogue of games here - the more I wondered about all those reports I had originally heard about he great and talented he was. Because I wasn’t seeing a guy like that very often.

I kinda just don’t really see it. Not even being specific, just in general. What am I missing?

And with Matas already on the roster, doesn’t make sense unless they are just taking Pat.

I don’t see it with Kuminga either. Although I also don’t see it with Pat, so there’s that. Granted, Pat has shown flashes when he’s made the guy. He did that against Milwaukee for a game in the playoffs. In that sense, he’s a bit like Coby where Coby is a rhythm guy who needs ample playing time and the ball in his hands to get hot but is otherwise inconsistent when made to be a role player or a sparkplug off the bench. Problem for Pat is that he’s never consistently shown the motor on the court to be the guy so he won’t be.

I think if you’re able to bring in Kuminga for Pat’s contract or for Ayo if you think you can’t retain him then assuming his contract is in the $20-25 mil per year range it’s a low risk, potentially high reward move that is more likely to fail than succeed. But I wouldn’t fault the Bulls for swinging for the fences if they don’t have to give up much to acquire him.

If we are comparing flashes, Kuminga has shown a whole lot more flashes and consistent big number games than Pat can even dream up of. It's not even a comparison between those two. Despite both being young and still developing, as far as real production, Kuminga is miles ahead of Pat. For both of them, it's the mental aspect that needs working on, but at least Kuminga has that drive (despite being more on the selfish side) to actually make things happen, as opposed to Pat who just doesn't show that on a consistent basis.

[eierluke]

My comparison is Bobby Portis, a guy who knows to score, but with whom you won't start building a team.
Portis just signed 3 years/ 43 mio.
And when comparing with Portis, Kuminga does not even rebound or hit the 3.

My main concern is Kumingas self assessment does not fit with reality and you'll always have trouble with such scenario

[Dez]

My comparison is Bobby Portis, a guy who knows to score, but with whom you won't start building a team.
Portis just signed 3 years/ 43 mio.
And when comparing with Portis, Kuminga does not even rebound or hit the 3.

My main concern is Kumingas self assessment does not fit with reality and you'll always have trouble with such scenario

Your comparison is Bobby Portis but he does nothing Portis can do? Interesting.

[sco]

My comparison is Bobby Portis, a guy who knows to score, but with whom you won't start building a team.
Portis just signed 3 years/ 43 mio.
And when comparing with Portis, Kuminga does not even rebound or hit the 3.

My main concern is Kumingas self assessment does not fit with reality and you'll always have trouble with such scenario

Your comparison is Bobby Portis but he does nothing Portis can do? Interesting.

I think the point is that Bobby is a scoring, but average defending PF, and he just got paid $11M/yr, AND Bobby does more.

[MGB8]

My comparison is Bobby Portis, a guy who knows to score, but with whom you won't start building a team.
Portis just signed 3 years/ 43 mio.
And when comparing with Portis, Kuminga does not even rebound or hit the 3.

My main concern is Kumingas self assessment does not fit with reality and you'll always have trouble with such scenario

Your comparison is Bobby Portis but he does nothing Portis can do? Interesting.

I think the point is that Bobby is a scoring, but average defending PF, and he just got paid $11M/yr, AND Bobby does more.

Bobby is older, so there is that. And a Kuminga has “flashed” as a decent defender at times - just not consistently.

Honestly, if the Bulls hadn’t just drafted Essengue, I might be more interested in taking a flier on Kuminga. He would be a hedge in case either Giddey either becomes playable as a guard (on D) or that the Bulls decide to move on and find a different point, and this time, he is a guard. Worse case, you use him as a 3rd forward, though not good the kind of money being discussed. So would have to be a short deal.

But with Essengue, and presumably Giddey -- if Giddey stays, Kuminga either has to defend on the perimeter (where we’re adding ANOTHER non-shooter, where he has had time to develop and just hasn’t), and if Essengue hits, now you have a bigger logjam.

[DuckIII]

I’m not going to try to pretend I know enough about Kuminga to say he’s a black hole or won’t play D, but I’ve watched him play basketball. Originally with the thought that I wondered why, with all the great things I was hearing about what a freak athlete he was and how much GS loved him, he didn’t play more. But then the more I watched - admittedly not some deep catalogue of games here - the more I wondered about all those reports I had originally heard about he great and talented he was. Because I wasn’t seeing a guy like that very often.

I kinda just don’t really see it. Not even being specific, just in general. What am I missing?

And with Matas already on the roster, doesn’t make sense unless they are just taking Pat.

Isn't it the same as what was said about Giddey, with him not being played in the playoffs.

I didn't make that argument about Kuminga and I hate that argument when used with Giddey, so I'd say no. Playoffs are about matchups and you gotta do what you gotta do in a single series. And in Giddey's case it went down in OKC the way it did, not because of Giddey, but because Giddey's value-add role was replaced by a top 3 player in the world.

In Kuminga's case it could also be about matchups and just about his stage of development. Giddey, though the shot was raw, was a pretty advanced player coming in even as s rookie. Kuminga more of a project.

I'm of the opinion that unless that flat out not talented, or too old, we need to be asset building and provided that the costs is reasonable, we see if it works out.

I agree. I've advocated trading for him, but only in two scenarios. 1. Pat goes out, offsetting a considerable amount of Kuminga's salary while giving Kuminga an opportunity to boost his value; or 2. You give up nothing of significant value (no Coby, no firsts) thereby increasing the likelihood you can pump and flip him for better assets than you sent out.

No way GS does option #2 and hard to imagine #1 is real appealing to them either without sweetener I wouldn't offer.

There are reasons to trade for him, but to me they are narrow and come with some real risk. But I understand the asset accumulation theory and strategy and we should be on the hunt. Though, to do that here, for me it has to be a bit of a sweetheart deal for the Bulls. Honestly, and believe me I'm not counting on this, if Pat can simply just be a little bit better/consistent than he was earlier in his career I'd rather have him $18 million. But again, not something I'm relying on. I'd trade Pat for Kuminga over lunch this afternoon if I could.